Mini‐symposium on the WTO Non‐agricultural Market Access (NAMA) Negotiations

NAMA liberalisation alone will not be sufficient to achieve the development goals of the Doha Round. The structure of developing countries’ economies and weaknesses in their infrastructure and institutions mean that adjustment to liberalisation is often costly and export responses slow. To make NAMA work, developing countries will need technical and financial support to raise their ability to adapt to greater openness and globalisation pressures and to increase their export capabilities. Although developing countries should decide how to raise their ability to adjust and to increase exports, bilateral donors and multilateral agencies will need to fund NAMA support programmes. The WTO, however, is not the appropriate or competent international agency to provide or disburse such funding. It can provide technical advice and offers a negotiating vehicle for industrial countries to signal that the development aims of the Doha Round are recognised in substantive terms. If industrial countries support developing countries’ NAMA‐related adjustment costs in addition to offering NAMA tariff cuts, the chances of a successful Doha agreement and genuine pro‐development outcomes will be boosted significantly.     

论可置信性威胁在反倾销动态博弈中的应用

近30年来国际反倾销案激增使得诸多学者对WTO关于反倾销的相关规定表示质疑。现行的乌拉圭回合《反倾销守则》尚存诸多缺陷。正处于转型时期的中国作为当前美欧等发达国家反倾销的主要对象,急需掌握反倾销动态博弈规则以及反倾销概率、高额关税、市场份额萎缩的预期及市场行为举证费用等可置信性威胁因素在动态博弈中的运用,以便在国际反倾销中争取积极主动的地位。     

世界贸易组织多哈回合谈判受挫原因及启示

文章指出,世界贸易组织最主要的职能是组织和推动多边贸易谈判,多哈回合是世界贸易组织成立以来的第一轮多边贸易谈判,自启动至今屡遭挫折,其主要原因是:区域经济一体化组织深入发展,世界经济力量对比发生了变化;谈判领域和内容越来越敏感,改革接近零和博弈;谈判中发展中成员联合程度提高,影响力扩大;世界贸易组织自身决策机制等存在缺陷。文章提出,为促进世界贸易自由化发展,世界贸易组织应加快改革进程,慎重增加谈判议题,扩大管辖范围;切实做好现有规则和协议的执行与落实;改革决策机制,提高解决现实问题的效率;平衡各方利益,进一步增强世界贸易组织的民主性和公平性,以继续发挥自由贸易主导者和推动者的作用。     

WTO法新发展与我国外贸法的完善

乌拉圭回合通过的一系列多边贸易协定标志着WTO法的新发展，使原来仅以货物贸易关系为调整对象的GATT法律体系发展成为既调整货物贸易，又调整技术贸易和服务贸易三大法律关系的WTO法律体系：WTO法的新发展既体现在对GATT法律体系的扩充，又体现在对GATT立法内容的修订与补充上：文章在论述WTO法新发展的基础上，探讨我国外贸法与外贸制度中迫切需要完善的若干问题。     

Preference Erosion,Government Revenues and Non‐tariff Trade Barriers

Developing countries benefiting from developed country unilateral trade preferences fear that Doha Round tariff cuts will erode the value of those preferences. That these programmes confer significant benefits, however, is not clear. Studies indicate that the impact of preference erosion would be minimal for most developing countries. But for a small subset of middle‐income and least‐developed countries, concern may be warranted. WTO members, should address affected countries’ concerns, perhaps by tailoring WTO tariff negotiations to lessen adjustment pressures and providing development assistance. Developing countries also are anxious that lower tariffs will reduce government revenues. Dependence on tariff revenue is diminishing and trade liberalisation need not result in lower total tax revenues or even lower customs revenues. Much depends on a country's current tariff and trade regime, its tax structure and its overall economic structure. At some point, a country does need to broaden its tax base and look to other revenue sources to offset declining tariff revenues. Tax reform, therefore, complements trade reform. A third area of developing country concern is non‐tariff barriers (NTBs), which may limit market access even after tariffs are reduced. Despite prior WTO work in this area, NTBs remain a thorny issue for all WTO members.     

Empirical evidence on surrogate country method for non‐market economy: US anti‐dumping policy towards China

Whether the non‐market economy (NME) treatment on China can be maintained even after the expiry date under Section 15 of China's World Trade Organization (WTO) Accession Protocol is one of the most controversial issues in the WTO. In fact, the key issue of the NME status in the anti‐dumping (AD) proceedings turns out to be how surrogate countries are selected in relation to dumping margin calculation. This paper reviews the US practices concerning the application of the surrogate country method. Despite the general perception of capricious and random selection of surrogate countries, the Department of Commerce has maintained a consistent pattern for applying the criteria. This seemingly consistent practice, however, raised systematic problems—but not at a significant scale—in dumping margin calculation concerning Chinese products. This result sheds an interesting light on the current WTO disputes concerning the China's NME status. At least in terms of the US AD practices, the result of the WTO dispute settlement process may not have a significant impact on the China's exportation.     

Agriculture in Eastern European countries: Light at the end of the tunnel?

Following recent events in East European countries the question has arisen as to what effect the possible changes in the agricultural policies of these countries might have on agricultural production and trade. Our author addresses this question paying special regard to the consequences for EC agriculture and the present GATT Round.     

WTO多哈回合争端解决机制谈判及内容概析——以专家组程序为例

WTO争端解决机制被誉为"WTO皇冠上的明珠",正在进行中的WTO多哈回合谈判重要内容之一就是对WTO争端解决机制进行"改进和澄清"。在WTO争端机制将发挥愈加重要作用背景下,此种修改将直接涉及和影响包括中国在内的广大发展中国家的重大和长远利益。本文概要介绍了多哈回合WTO争端解决规则谈判的进展和面临难点,此后以专家组程序方面的改革建议为例对争端解决规则谈判内容的细致性和演进情况进行了介绍,并在某些问题上试图对中国可考虑观点做出建议。     

What Future for the WTO?

The past decade has been troubling for the World Trade Organization (WTO). After 12 hard years of negotiation, and multiple missed deadlines, stakes are high for breaking the many logjams that obstruct the Doha Development Round. This article assesses what can be salvaged from the Doha Round and the associated global payoffs, and it provides guidelines for maintaining the relevance of the WTO moving forward. There is good reason for measured optimism, but for optimism to be sustained, trade ministers must deliver something meaningful at the Bali WTO Ministerial in December 2013.     

Implementing the Uruguay Round Agreements: Problems for Developing Countries

Unilateral removal of trade restrictions is good economics, but it is often bad domestic politics. GATT negotiations for 50 years provided a mechanism to overcome this political incorrectness. The Uruguay Round carried multilateral negotiations into many ‘new areas’ with more complex economics – areas of regulation that establish the basic business environment in the domestic economy, e.g., technical, sanitary and phytosanitary standards; intellectual property law. Doing these things is costly and you can get it wrong – the economic correctness is not so simple as the economic correctness of removing trade restrictions. Making economic sense in these areas requires cost‐benefit analysis, experimentation, projects tailored to specific problems. Some developing countries would benefit from reforms in the new areas, but the Uruguay Round requirements do not identify the problems that exist in developing countries and they consequently demand establishment of institutions and regulations that will impose higher costs than benefits on the countries that implement them. Implementation issues are development issues, not trade issues. The procedures of the World Bank are suited to taking on such matters, those of the WTO are not.     

Multilateral,Regional and Bilateral Trade‐Policy Options for the United States and Japan

We have used the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to simulate the economic effects on the United States, Japan, and other major trading countries/regions of the Doha Round of WTO multilateral trade negotiations and a variety of regional/bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) involving the United States and Japan. We estimate that an assumed reduction of post‐Uruguay Round tariffs and other barriers on agricultural and industrial products and services by 33 per cent in the Doha Round would increase world welfare by $686.4 billion, with gains of $164.0 billion for the United States, $132.6 billion for Japan, and significant gains for all other industrialised and developing countries/regions. If there were global free trade with all post‐Uruguay Round trade barriers completely removed, world welfare would increase by $2.1 trillion, with gains of $497.0 billion (5.5 per cent of GNP) for the United States and $401.9 billion (6.2 per cent of GNP) for Japan. Regional agreements such as an APEC FTA, an ASEAN Plus 3 FTA, and a Western Hemisphere FTA would increase global and member country welfare but much less so than the Doha multilateral trade round would. Separate bilateral FTAs involving Japan with Singapore, Mexico, Chile and Korea, and the United States with Chile, Singapore and Korea would have positive, though generally small, welfare effects on the partner countries, but potentially disruptive sectoral employment shifts in some countries. There would be trade diversion and detrimental welfare effects on some non‐member countries for both the regional and bilateral FTAs analysed. The welfare gains from multilateral trade liberalisation are therefore considerably greater than the gains from preferential trading arrangements and more uniformly positive for all countries.     

Curbing Agricultural Exceptionalism: The EU's Response to External Challenge

From 1948 to 1994, the agricultural sector was afforded special treatment in the GATT. We analyse the extent to which this agricultural exceptionalism was curbed as a result of the GATT Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture, discuss why it was curbed and finally explore the implication of this for EU policy making. We argue that, in particular, two major changes in GATT institutions brought about restrictions on agricultural exceptionalism. First, the Uruguay Round was a ‘single undertaking’ in which progress on other dossiers was contingent upon an outcome on agriculture. The EU had keenly supported this new decision rule in the GATT. Within the EU this led to the MacSharry reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in 1992, paving the way for a trade agreement on agriculture within the GATT. Second, under the new quasi‐judicial dispute settlement procedure, countries are expected to bring their policies into conformity with WTO rules or face retaliatory trade sanctions. This has brought about a greater willingness on the part of the EU to submit its farm policy to WTO disciplines.     

WTO能源服务贸易谈判之最新进展及中国的对策

能源贸易在各国能源安全政策中扮演重要角色,然而,由于南北国家之间的利益冲突,WTO成员在多哈回合谈判中能源服务的界定问题上出现分歧,谈判陷入僵局。在有关能源服务贸易的议题中,中国的法律对策应为:提出明确的谈判主张,促成有利于中国的能源服务界定方案的达成,结合本国能源服务产业的实际情况,仅就中国在贸易利益方面具有比较优势的能源服务部门展开谈判。     

Fairness in International Trade Negotiations: Developing Countries in the GATT and WTO

Does fairness matter in the hard bargaining and horse‐trading that is associated with trade negotiations? This paper presents a positivist analysis of the particular concepts of fairness that developing countries have appealed to in their trade negotiations within the auspices of the GATT and WTO, how these notions have evolved, and the impact that they have had on negotiated outcomes. Treating the concept of fairness as my central dependent variable, I argue that the notion of fairness can only be understood in terms of the institutional context it is embedded in, which includes institutional structure as well as the participatory processes that underlie it. I advance three hypotheses on the relationship between institutional context: the fairness discourse, and the influence and manoeuvre that member countries can have in shaping that discourse. Focusing on the role of fairness in the negotiation positions of developing countries, I explain its substance and evolution through learning and adaptation by these countries within the very particular institutions of the GATT and the WTO, and the coalitions they form a part of and interact within.     

Bargaining Coalitions in the WTO Agricultural Negotiations

This paper aims to understand the structural features of bargaining coalitions in the Doha Round of the WTO. We provide an empirical assessment of the preferences of each negotiating actor considering general economics indicators, development levels, structure of agricultural sectors and trade policies. Bargaining coalitions are analysed by grouping countries using a cluster analysis procedure. The clusters are compared with existing coalitions in order to assess their degree of internal homogeneity as well as their common interests. Such a comparison allows the identification of possible ‘defectors’, i.e. countries that, according to their economic conditions and policies, seem to be relatively less committed to the positions of the coalition they join. In addition, the ex‐post analysis of the counterfactual coalitions sheds light on the ‘distance’ between different coalitions as well as between individual countries and the best alternative group available. Empirical results confirm our research hypothesis: clusters of structurally homogeneous countries well represent existing bargaining coalitions. In particular, the G‐20 shows a high degree of internal coherence, which, in our framework, may provide a clue to the ‘sustainability’ of this coalition and to its relevance in the Doha Round negotiations.     

Trade‐Policy Issues and Policy Options for Japan and the United States: Introduction and Overview

This symposium includes papers that analyse a number of issues that are likely to play a key role in the Doha Development Agenda (DDA) negotiations. These issues are analysed from the perspective of US‐Japanese economic relations. In these papers, the economic effects of the WTO negotiating options available to both countries are explored. A final paper examines the important issues raised by the free trade agreements (FTAs) that have or will soon be negotiated by the United States and Japan. Brief summaries of the papers are provided. With all the advantages that have accrued to Japan from the multilateral trading system, it is not surprising that for many years Japan, alone among the world's major economies, stayed aloof from regional trading arrangements. The very past success of the multilateral trading system has made further progress at this level far more complex and has pushed many countries, Japan included, to look to new and deeper regional trading agreements as a more productive path. But it should not be forgotten that while FTAs may be easier to conclude, their benefits are modest compared with what can be gained from a successful Doha Round, and the costs from new distortions imposed on regional trade can be very significant for some of the world's poorer economies. Every good reason remains for Japan to continue to wish to be a pillar of the WTO and of the new Doha Round.     

Dumping and Injury Margins in Markets with Horizontal as well as Vertical Product Differentiation

This paper examines the GATT/WTO rules for anti-dumping measures in a duopoly model with both horizontal and vertical product differentiation. The GATT/WTO rules allow for anti-dumping measures if domestic producers, exposed to price discrimination, also demonstrate injury where price-undercutting is an important indicator of the latter. The paper shows that the procedure for calculating injury is flawed due to negligence of quality differences in the calculation of the margin of price-undercutting. This gives countries with high-quality producers an option to practice protectionism. This asymmetry between countries in ability to implement anti-dumping measures predominantly favors the developed countries which are specialized in producing high-quality products. The paper suggests an overall critical look at the lenient rules for implementing anti-dumping measures—especially the rules for injury determination—in order to restrict the use of such measures to a minimum and to move the world economy closer to free trade.     

WTO新一轮农业谈判中的“新蓝箱”措施评析

新一轮农业谈判多哈回合谈判框架协议,对农业国内支持政策“蓝箱”措施进行重新定义。根据《农业协议》规定,发达国家需逐渐削减黄箱措施对农业的综合支持量,而“新蓝箱”措施的出台与WTO农业谈判追求贸易自由化的进程相悖。本文概括世界各国蓝箱措施的实施情况,分析“新蓝箱”措施出台的背景、原因,客观评价“新蓝箱”对国际农产品贸易格局的影响。     

多哈回合早期收获与《贸易便利化协定》

WTO多哈回合谈判历经十余年陷入僵局,但2013年12月在巴厘部长级会议上终于达成了早期收获,其中最大的成果就是《贸易便利化协定》达成了实质性合意。该协定内容丰富,在贸易便利化方面具有突破性的进展。从国际条约法方面看,还处于缔结程序中的该协定是未来WTO《多哈回合谈判最终文件》的一部分,并且也是"一揽子协议"。从国际组织法方面看,该协定的实施将会遵循WTO和WCO的合作模式,WCO将会发挥很大的作用。该协定合意的达成对于中国口岸和海关制度的改革具有很大意义,将会促进中国现代化海关制度的建成。     

WTO制度危机与发展问题研究

WTO的存在价值是在近几年才提出的一个新话题，从1995年WTO成立到2000年回合失败前，学界对其一直保持着乐观态度。但是西雅图会议之后，尤其是在坎昆会议之后，甚至有人提出WTO应该解体了。那么，这到底是WTO制度的危机？还是发展中的问题？WTO当代存在价值如何是一个非常有意义的论题。本文认为这些问题是发展中的问题，而不是制度危机所致。