中国财政政策动态效应的实证分析:1998~2004

本文对中国1998~2004年间实行的积极性财政政策的动态效应进行了实证研究。基于对数据性质的考察,我们选用了结构性VECM模型来研究。在结构性模型中,我们引入了长期约束和短期约束来识别宏观经济变量中的冲击向量,并利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解的方法,对冲击向量的动态效应进行实证研究。模型的实证结果表明,财政支出冲击对总产出具有正向效应而税收收入冲击则具有负向效应,且支出冲击的正效应略大于税收收入的负效应。该结论印证了凯恩斯主义关于财政政策的主要结论。同时实证结果对我国1998年以来的积极财政政策的效果给予了支持:增加财政支出的效应很大程度上被同期税收收入的增长所抵消,财政政策对产出的贡献并不像预期的那么显著。     

Fiscal consolidation with tax evasion and corruption

Cross-country evidence highlights the importance of tax evasion and corruption in determining the size of fiscal multipliers. We introduce these two features in a New Keynesian model and revisit the effects of fiscal consolidations. VAR evidence for Italy suggests that spending cuts reduce tax evasion, while tax hikes increase it. In the model, spending cuts induce a reallocation of production towards the formal sector, thus reducing tax evasion. Tax hikes increase the incentives to produce in the less productive shadow sector, implying higher output and unemployment losses. Corruption further amplifies these losses by requiring larger hikes in taxes to reduce debt. We use the model to assess the recent fiscal consolidation plans in Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain. Our results corroborate the evidence of increasing levels of tax evasion during these consolidations and point to significant output and welfare losses, which could be reduced substantially by combating tax evasion and corruption.     

Global Fiscal Adjustment and Trade Rebalancing

The emergence of substantial fiscal deficits and a large build up of government debt in major advanced economies will inevitably lead to a period of fiscal consolidation in coming years. In an earlier paper, Asian Economic Papers, 9, 2010 and 54, explored the effects of this fiscal adjustment in advanced economies on the global economic outlook. This paper focuses on the differences between the impacts of fiscal policy in advanced versus emerging economies. In particular, the need for more fiscal spending on infrastructure in emerging economies and the need for fiscal consolidation in advanced economies leads naturally to the question of what this asymmetric fiscal adjustment might do to global trade balances as well as global economic growth over the coming decades. The adjustment needed in both regions is substantial, and the asymmetry of the adjustment implies important consequences for trade and capital flows between regions as well as asset price adjustments within and between regions.     

Demand-side stabilization policies: What is the evidence of their potential?

Using disaggregated data for the United States, this paper explores the effects of the variability of fiscal and monetary policy shocks. Higher variability of government spending shocks around a steady-state growth trend results in, on average, a decline in aggregate demand growth and inflation, with limited effects on output growth. On the other hand, higher variability of monetary shocks results in, on average, an increase in inflation and a decline in output growth. These results indicate the desirability of avoiding large fluctuations over time in either government spending or the money supply.     

On the relationship between public and private spending in developing and developed countries

Using annual data, the paper studies the time-series evidence regarding the effectiveness of government spending. The emphasis is on the relationship between public spending and private spending. The objective is to identify whether the effects of public spending on macro variables are reinforced or mitigated through the spillover effects on private spending. The evidence attests to the importance of stimulating private spending to maximize the positive effect of an increase in public spending on real growth. Concerns about the crowding out effects of higher public spending on private demand are more dominant in developing countries. Moreover, the scope for government spending to determine aggregate uncertainty is much larger in developing countries. Overall, the evidence attests to the importance of managing trends and variability of government spending towards maximizing the fiscal multiplier. The paper's evidence spells out potential to maximize the fiscal multiplier via private spending and concerns about the ineffectiveness of fiscal policy where crowding out concerns dominate.     

财政赤字的排挤效应:实证分析

本文首先通过把财政收支引入居民消费函数,估计财政赤字对民间消费的影响;然后,分别从经济周期、全社会固定资产投资的资金来源以及资本收益率等角度,分析财政赤字对民间投资的影响.其结果均表明,1998年以来我国实施的积极财政政策所导致的财政赤字,并没有产生排挤效应.     

Habit formation and fiscal transmission in open economies

In this paper we analyze the ability of an open economy version of the neoclassical model to account for the time-series evidence on fiscal policy transmission. Revisiting the evidence, we find that i) government spending raises output, while inducing a simultaneous decline of investment and the current account and ii) the responses of output and investment are more muted in more open economies while current account deficits tend to be larger. Turning to the model, we explore the role of habit formation for fiscal policy transmission. Specifically, we show that the model can account for the evidence if consumption behavior is characterized by habit formation and the terms of trade adjust endogenously.     

Habit formation and fiscal transmission in open economies

In this paper we analyze the ability of an open economy version of the neoclassical model to account for the time-series evidence on fiscal policy transmission. Revisiting the evidence, we find that i) government spending raises output, while inducing a simultaneous decline of investment and the current account and ii) the responses of output and investment are more muted in more open economies while current account deficits tend to be larger. Turning to the model, we explore the role of habit formation for fiscal policy transmission. Specifically, we show that the model can account for the evidence if consumption behavior is characterized by habit formation and the terms of trade adjust endogenously.     

Fiscal rule compliance,poverty and social exclusion in the Eurozone

This paper develops a simple model of the effects of fiscal adjustments on poverty. Our theory suggests that in richer countries the effects of fiscal adjustment are stronger the more complex is the poverty measure. By examining a panel of 16 EU countries in the period 2005–2015, the paper finds that structural public balance adjustments may harm the welfare of poorer individuals. The empirical estimation hinges on a comprehensive index of poverty and social exclusion, the AROPE index. The results suggest that rigid fiscal rules require specific alternative policies to sustain the welfare of poorer individuals during downturns.     

Customer Markets,Inflation and Unemployment in a Dynamic Model with a Range of Equilibria

The paper presents a dynamic model incorporating a range of non‐accelerating‐inflation rates of unemployment (NAIRU) obtained according to the theoretical framework proposed by the customer markets literature. The analysis of the dynamic adjustments of unemployment and inflation emphasizes the real effects of demand shocks. Changes in the fiscal and monetary policy can exert permanent effects on output and unemployment, both determining persistence in the unemployment rate and selecting the actual steady‐state equilibrium within the NAIRU range.     

Künftige Finanzplanung der EU — neue Prioritäten,höhere Effizienz?

On May 2, 2018, the European Commission proposed a limited and realistic increase for the EU’s next multi-annual financial framework 2021–2027. The draft implies a roughly constant common budget for the EU with a focus on European stabilisation policy and the provision of centralised public goods provision rather than agriculture and cohesion. This shift mirrors the priorities spelled out by Emanuel Macron. However, the Commission combined this pragmatism with its interest in improving budgetary flexibility and autonomy. There is no doubt that the EU27 faces difficult negotiations. EU Member States’ initial reactions to the European Commision’s recent proposals were dominated by juste retour considerations reminiscent of past negotiations. Strengthening EU expenditure through European added value and fundamentally reforming their own resource system, including the introduction of tax-based own resources, will end the deadlock surrounding net position thinking. A more fundamental view on the fiscal policy of the European Union is given in the last paper, which states that the EU requires a complete overhaul of the economic governance structure. It offers a tentative approach that avoids moral hazard problems as well as fallacies about conditional backstops during times of crisis.     

财政支出政策对宏观经济影响的时滞分析

本文在建立财政支出与各宏观经济变量的向量自回归模型基础上,利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法,分析财政支出政策的时滞.我们发现,我国财政支出增加对国民产出、民间部门投资和出口影响的时滞都为3个月,对最终消费影响的时滞为2个月;财政支出增加对全社会固定资产投资的影响程度最高,其次为国民产出,而对最终消费和出口的影响程度最低;财政支出增加对国民产出、全社会固定资产投资和出口的影响具有持久性,对最终消费影响的周期为5个月左右.     

财政支出的空间外溢效应对区域经济增长的影响——以武汉城市圈为例

讨论财政支出的跨区溢出效应对于财政体制的设计以及区域经济发展意义重大。本文在以往研究的基础上,采用空间面板Durbin模型,实证研究了武汉城市圈内各地财政支出的空间外溢效应对区域经济增长的影响,圈内成员经济的空间互动性质以及其他经济变量的空间效应。研究结果表明,城市圈内财政支出尤其是生产性支出的空间溢出对区域经济有积极的促进作用;圈域内经济增长有显著的相互促进的空间关系;经济开放程度、外商直接投资以及储蓄率等对圈域经济增长有溢出效应。     

当前经济形势与2012年财政政策

本文系统分析了当前的国内外经济形势和2012年的宏观经济政策。结论表明,在国内外经济形势已经发生实质性变化的背景下,2012年的宏观经济政策,即便在名义上仍旧维持"积极加稳健"相搭配的格局,相对于以往,其实际内容也应当且必须做出相当的调整。就积极财政政策布局而言,这种调整主要包括:预算赤字规模,宜在去年的基础上略有增加;减税而非增支,将成为主要载体;结构性减税的操作,应锁定流转税并以增值税为主;增加支出的操作,宜将重点放在改善民生上。     

Trade Liberalisation and Capital Spending by US Manufacturers

This is the first paper to study the impact of long‐term tariff reductions on capital spending by US manufacturers. We investigate fluctuations in investment for approximately 400 different four‐digit industries during the period 1974–2005. Our results indicate that the dismantling of tariff and quota protection has had a stimulatory effect on US manufacturing investment, despite the relatively low average tariff rate that existed at the start of our sample period. However, our findings reveal that reductions in input tariffs rather than output tariffs were the source of this effect, suggesting that better access to foreign inputs rather than increased foreign competition at the output level served as the primary stimulus for increased US manufacturing investment.     

Openness and growth: an interpretation of empirical evidence from East Asian countries

This study investigates the effect of openness on economic growth for rapidly growing economies in East Asia in which rapid growth has been accompanied by a persistent openness to world trade. The framework of analysis is a five-variable vector autoregressive model that consists of real output, money supply, real government spending, foreign price shocks, and openness measures. The results do not strongly support the 'new' growth theories in which increasing openness affects long-run growth. For most countries in the sample, fiscal policy shocks as well as foreign price shocks have greater impacts on economic growth than does the openness shock. The results are generally consistent with the view that the role of the government is critical for growth among the East Asian economies.     

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE EFFECTS OF FISCAL POLICY

The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy are analyzed using a Keynesian growth model. Comparative static analysis shows that the long‐run effects of an increase in public spending and a decrease in taxation on economic growth and government budget balance depend on the relative size of marginal propensity to consume and invest and could be positive under certain conditions. Empirical estimates show that consumption and production structure have changed significantly from 1930s to 2007; both positive and negative effects on growth and budget balance of the same fiscal policy are found in different time periods.     

省及省以下财政分权与区域公共卫生服务供给--基于面板分位数回归的实证研究

本文利用面板分位数模型,实证检验了财政分权对区域公共卫生服务供给的影响。发现,省级财政分权对区域公共卫生服务供给具有显著正效应,省以下财政分权对公共卫生服务产出具有负效应,对公共卫生投入效应不显著。不同条件分位数下,财政分权对公共卫生服务供给的影响表现出较大差异。     

Does Fiscal Stimulus Cause Too Much Debt?

This study distinguishes between temporary fiscal stimulus to combat a recession and two other debt-raising policies: financial bailouts and spending on Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. Two striking conclusions emerge from our simulations of the impact of a temporary fiscal stimulus on the economy. First, the fiscal stimulus effectively mitigates the recession. Second, debt as a percentage of GDP is only slightly greater with the fiscal stimulus than it would be without the stimulus.     

Four Long-Term Fiscal Realities

The United States faces a long-run fiscal imbalance because of rapid projected growth in Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid spending. The policy response to the imbalance will be shaped by four long-term fiscal realities. First, revenue will rise as a share of GDP. Second, entitlement spending will be reduced, relative to current policies. Third, the middle class, broadly defined, will bear much of the burden of addressing the fiscal imbalance. Fourth, consumption taxation is likely to become a significant part of the federal tax system, probably through the partial replacement of the income tax by a value added tax.