货币流动性和市场流动性:波动与风险

目前,货币流动性和市场流动性的关系成为股票市场参与者关注的焦点。本文分析了货币流动性与市场流动性的联系,实证研究了货币流动性和市场流动性的波动关系,以及货币流动性对市场流动性风险的影响,发现货币流动性M2、M1和市场非流动性动态负相关,M0与市场非流动性动态不相关;货币流动性M2和M1的正向冲击能一定程度降低市场流动性波动风险,而M0会增加市场流动性波动风险,市场流动性风险自身是影响市场后期流动性风险的最大因素。     

广西地方金融机构流动性风险及防范

结合广西地方金融机构具体情况,用传统流动性风险和流动性过剩两种观点相结合的方法进行分析,认为广西农村信用社和城市商业银行都存在的流动性风险,只是农信社存在的风险较大,而城市商业银行的流动性风险相对较小,针对流动性风险提出防范和减少地方金融机构流动性风险的方法。     

我国银行同业拆借市场“传染”风险的实证研究

本文使用矩阵法模型模拟我国银行同业风险头寸分布状况,估计了银行体系内的“传染”风险。结果表明:(1)银行同业资产和负债都与银行的类型和规模相关,国有银行的同业头寸占全部同业头寸的70%以上,但其同业资产占比有逐年下降趋势;(2)银行体系内风险传染的概率非常低,同时风险传染的概率及其导致的损失在逐年下降;(3)如果考虑银行预期和银行安全网对传染风险的降低作用,危机传染的风险甚至会降至零;(4)对“传染”风险的估计也存在低估的可能,同时银行同业拆借市场的“传染”风险正在从银行同业之间向银行与其他金融机构尤其是证券公司之间扩散。     

RUNNING FOR THE EXIT: DISTRESSED SELLING AND ENDOGENOUS CORRELATION IN FINANCIAL MARKETS

We propose a simple multiperiod model of price impact from trading in a market with multiple assets, which illustrates how feedback effects due to distressed selling and short selling lead to endogenous correlations between asset classes. We show that distressed selling by investors exiting a fund and short selling of the fund’s positions by traders may have nonnegligible impact on the realized correlations between returns of assets held by the fund. These feedback effects may lead to positive realized correlations between fundamentally uncorrelated assets, as well as an increase in correlations across all asset classes and in the fund’s volatility which is exacerbated in scenarios in which the fund undergoes large losses. By studying the diffusion limit of our discrete time model, we obtain analytical expressions for the realized covariance and show that the realized covariance may be decomposed as the sum of a fundamental covariance and a liquidity‐dependent “excess” covariance. Finally, we examine the impact of these feedback effects on the volatility of other funds. Our results provide insight into the nature of spikes in correlation associated with the failure or liquidation of large funds.     

RISK HORIZON AND REBALANCING HORIZON IN PORTFOLIO RISK MEASUREMENT

This paper analyzes portfolio risk and volatility in the presence of constraints on portfolio rebalancing frequency. This investigation is motivated by the incremental risk charge (IRC) introduced by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. In contrast to the standard market risk measure based on a 10‐day value‐at‐risk calculated at 99% confidence, the IRC considers more extreme losses and is measured over a 1‐year horizon. More importantly, whereas 10‐day VaR is ordinarily calculated with a portfolio’s holdings held fixed, the IRC assumes a portfolio is managed dynamically to a target level of risk, with constraints on rebalancing frequency. The IRC uses discrete rebalancing intervals (e.g., monthly or quarterly) as a rough measure of potential illiquidity in underlying assets. We analyze the effect of these rebalancing intervals on the portfolio’s profit and loss distribution over a risk‐measurement horizon. We derive limiting results, as the rebalancing frequency increases, for the difference between discretely and continuously rebalanced portfolios; we use these to approximate the loss distribution for the discretely rebalanced portfolio relative to the continuously rebalanced portfolio. Our analysis leads to explicit measures of the impact of discrete rebalancing under a simple model of asset dynamics.     

个人住房贷款的风险与防范

近年来,商业银行把个人住房贷款看作是优质贷款品种,因此一直大力发展该项业务。但是,根据国际经验,个人住房贷款的风险暴露期通常为3-8年,中国个人住房贷款可能刚开始进入到风险暴露期。因此正确认识并努力防范当前个人住房贷款业务存在的风险尤为重要。本文深入分析了个人住房贷款的风险,如假按揭风险、信用风险、流动性风险等五种风险,并提出了防范风险的对策。     

农村金融流动性风险分析及预防

随着近年来金融危机的出现和潜在危机的浮出,流动性风险成为了值得各国、各金融机构关注的风险隐患。通过对部分涉农金融机构的负债情况和机构分布情况进行数据归纳,体现出我国现行农村金融机构信贷质量差,资金的时效性强等多方面的问题。预防农村金融流动性风险,应建立特有的农村金融机构人才培养机制,认真考察不同地区的流动性资金的走向情况,做出合理的流动性风险管理规划,并加强各地区的联系和沟通,组建风险预警体系和完善相应的保险机制。     

Sharing contracts' marginalisation,adverse selection and markup calculation

This paper proposes a new approach to explain the dominance—in the Islamic banking market—of markup contracts at the expense of sharing ones. We show that the dual pricing practised in this market produces an additional—or artificial—dimension of adverse selection, which is causing the sharing contracts' marginalization. We suggest specialized use of two Islamic contractual categories as a device for eliminating artificial adverse selection. We suggest also an endogenous calculation of the markup, that is independent of the interest rate, based on the financing cost unification. This approach allows the deduction of default and liquidity risk premiums.     

The Liquidity Discount

This paper characterizes the liquidity discount, the difference between the market value of a trader's position and its value when liquidated. This discount occurs whenever traders face downward sloping demand curves for shares and execution lags in selling shares. This characterization enables one to modify the standard value at risk (VaR) computation to include liquidity risk.     

我国商业银行流动性风险管理的路径选择

流动性风险是商业银行主要的经营风险 ,保持适度的流动性是商业银行生存和发展的基础。本文通过对我国银行业流动性风险管理的现状的分析 ,借鉴西方发达国家银行流动性风险管理的成熟经验 ,分别从监管机构和管理主体的角度 ,有针对性地提出了加强流动性风险管理的对策。     

AIG在次贷危机中所扮演的角色及其启示

美国的次贷危机已经演变成波及全球的金融危机,在此次危机中有许多国际知名的金融企业陷入困境,其中就包括美国国际集团（AIG）。作为全球首屈一指的保险业巨头,AIG在次贷危机中由于流动性不足,从一家纯粹的私人企业变成了“半国有化”的企业,其根源在于制度层面的投资过度集中、风险管理缺失、创新工具滥用,和技术层面的数据充足性、假设准确性、模型有效性等问题。     

对银行的流动性风险管理问题的思考

一直以来,流动性风险被称为银行最致命的风险,在银行的经营管理中流动性风险管理更是占有极其重要的地位。可目前银行的流动性风险管理的现状实在令人担忧,因此,如何有效地管理流动性风险就成为当前银行风险管理的核心内容。本文从流动性风险入手,着重阐述了当前银行的流动性风险管理现状,并提出一些应对策略,力图提高银行抵御流动性风险的能力,以供参考。