South-north trade and southern growth: Bleak prospects from the structuralist point of view

A three-country, three-commodity model is developed to illustrate the dynamics of growth among the ‘North’, the ‘South’ and ‘OPEC’. One conclusion is that the Southern growth rate will be increased by faster growth of Northern capital, with a steady state response coefficient of unity. However, if the steady state is perturbed by increases in Northern productivity or the oil price, then the coefficient becomes less than one. In the short run, higher capital flows from North to South increase the former's growth rate but may have only marginal impact on growth in the South. Higher productivity in the South will slow its growth rate and reduce its terms of trade when the Engel elasticity of Northern demand for its exports is less than one. These and other results follow from surplus labor in the South and its dependent position in international trade, from which it will be difficult to escape.     

东亚产品内分工对中美贸易顺差影响的分析

中美贸易顺差形成原因是多方面的,本文主要从东亚产品内分工着手分析东亚产品内分工形成的原因,并分析东亚产品内分工对中美贸易顺差的影响,通过计量经济模型对其影响的程度和稳定性做了实证分析,从而得出东亚产品内分工和中美贸易顺差之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系的结论,并在产品内分工的背景下提出应对中美贸易顺差不断扩大以及贸易摩擦不断增加的对策,即短期内通过在贸易冲突的谈判过程引起美国对原产地的重视,长期内不断实现产业升级彻底解决中美这种结构性贸易顺差。     

东亚“10+3”国家农产品国际竞争力分解及比较研究——基于分类农产品的CMS模型

随着东亚地区双边或多边贸易协定的不断增加,经济一体化成为了各国的最终诉求。然而农产品贸易问题却始终是谈判进程的主要阻力之一。本文侧重于对东亚区域内东盟10国和中日韩3国,就劳动密集型和资本密集型农产品分阶段进行恒定市场份额(CMS)的比较分析。得出的主要结论是:东亚地区农产品市场总体需求潜力很大;产业和结构的合理和完善可在一定程度上提高农产品的竞争力;中国农产品出口份额相对较大但主要依靠低廉的价格,并且竞争力逐渐减弱;政府制定的贸易政策和外部机会在未来农产品贸易中发挥着越来越重要的作用,区域经济合作是一种理想的选择方式。     

In Search of Optimised Regional Trade Agreements and Applications to East Asia

We quantitatively analyse the trade effects of enhanced trade facilitation with extended gravity equations. Our findings confirm that RTAs comprised of countries equipped with better trade facilitation are more likely to be trade‐creating, less likely to be trade‐diverting, and are thus more likely to lead the world economy toward global free trade. We also find that (i) the traditional gains from shallow integration through eliminating tariff barriers will be greater for South‐South RTAs in East Asia such as an ASEAN‐China RTA, provided that the tariff‐reducing schedule is strictly fulfilled, (ii) the gains from deeper integration through enhancing trade facilitation will be greater for North‐North RTAs in East Asia such as a Japan‐Korea RTA, and (iii) the gains from a combined trade liberalisation strategy through tariff reductions and enhanced trade facilitation will be greater for North‐South RTAs in East Asia such as a China‐Korea and an ASEAN+3 RTA.     

世界粮食贸易格局及趋势研究

通过对近20年世界粮食的生产、消费与贸易情况进行分析,本研究认为,世界粮价波动带有明显的周期性质,供需基本面的变化仍然是本轮国际粮价上涨的根本原因。从短期看,未来两三年全球粮食供求状况将有所改善,国际粮价维持在相对不高的水平上。对中长期的预测为,粮食需求的增长速度仍将快过产量及供给的增长速度,全球粮食供求将长期趋紧。     

Foreign Trade of China:Pains join happiness in 2005,Hard to Go Ahead in 2006

Foreign trade has become the most im portant issue in the country's economic situation.Domestic experts take the point of view that in 2006, the external demand will be still in a period of expansion, the surplus of foreign trade and export will witness a great increase, meaning that China will be possible to encounter more trade disputes in 2006 than in 2005.     

中国粮食财政干预政策产出效应分析

本文首先从理论上构建了限量收购和无限量收购条件下各种粮食干预政策的产出效应模型。分析表明:在两种收购条件下补贴政策及相应的粮食价格对剩余产量是否有拉动作用取决于农户的生产行为是否受到收入约束,而在限量收购下的收购量对剩余产量存在正反双重效应。其次,本文以我国改革开放以来的粮食数据为基础对该结论进行验证,结果表明就全国平均意义上而言,补贴政策对剩余粮食产量拉动作用有限,而粮食价格的拉动作用则相对较大,说明农户生产行为并未受到收入约束,而限量收购下的收购量对剩余产量的双重效应几乎完全抵消,从而只影响总产量而不会引致扩散效应。     

消费者绿色偏好视角下乳制品定价模型研究

在乳制品行业安全质量问题频发的背景下,消费者对于乳制品的绿色偏好程度越来越高,这种偏好会直接影响市场需求和企业生产决策。从消费者绿色偏好出发,将消费者按照绿色等级进行划分,运用均衡价格理论和消费者剩余理论构建了乳制品定价模型。经过数值仿真分析,结果发现,随着区间内消费者比例和消费水平的提高,区间内的需求量也会随之提高;且区间内消费者绿色偏好程度与企业利润呈正相关。     

2010：船板价格将高位震荡

在宏观政策措施的带动下．2009年国内钢市经历超乎预期的一年．钢价整体呈现“w”型走势。造船板受出口下降影响．产量明显缩减．价格也随钢市整体出现波动．2010年国内造船板需求增长依然具有较强动力．而出口也将逐步回升．但整体产能压力小减。造船板与钢市整体的关联性越来越强,2010年仍将在更高平台上波动运行。     

Trade barriers in East and South East Asia: the implications for retailers

Many countries in East and South East Asia have erected trade barriers at various times since 1945. Many retail markets have therefore been closed to outside influence and investment. In the 1990s however such measures are being reversed and markets in East and South East Asia are becoming increasingly open. This openness is both a willing embrace of outside investment and a less willing acceptance of external pressures. This paper reviews the changes taking place and concludes that those retailers taking advantage of the opportunities are faced with a variety of problems. Indeed, it would seem that the removal of international trade barriers simply leads to their replacement with more difficult domestic market policies.     

Complementary Goods: Prices and Consumer Welfare Under Duopoly and Monopoly

We examine prices, profits, and consumer surplus for differentiated complementary goods under duopoly and a multi‐product monopoly. We find that little can be said about the relative magnitudes of prices of the components of a system of complementary goods under the alternative market structures. Although demand complementarity can lead to lower prices for either the primary or the secondary good under monopoly, both prices are not necessarily lower. The results unique to this paper are that, when two complementary goods form a system, the system price is unambiguously lower and consumer surplus and profits are higher under a multi‐product monopoly.     

FDI,Growth and the Asian Financial Crisis: The Experience of Selected Asian Countries

This paper studies the trends in foreign direct investment (FDI) flows into selected South‐East Asian and East Asian economies after the Asian crisis. Empirical evidence indicates that South‐East and East Asian economies are recovering from the Asian crisis with strong output growth driven largely by export growth. However, output growth in the post‐crisis period is also accompanied by rising unemployment rates, growing government deficits, and declining FDI inflows into the South‐East Asian region. The declining FDI inflows into South‐East Asia after the crisis is of concern, as our empirical results show that FDI is important for output growth in the region. Our results also suggest that there might have been structural changes in the regional economies that could have led to a downward shift in the output growth of Asian economies in the post‐crisis period. This raises the issue of the sustainability of their output growth in the post‐crisis period.     

加入WTO对东北地区粮食产业发展的影响及对策

加入WTO ,给我国很多产业带来跳跃性发展的机遇 ,但对粮食产业而言 ,挑战远远大于机遇 ;东北地区作为我国粮食生产的主产区和集散地 ,其今后的发展影响着东亚甚至世界粮食贸易格局的形成 ,也决定了能否为我国的粮食安全提供有效的保障。     

The paddy grows in silence

In the attempt to build a South East Asian Community, similar experiences will be made as in other cases of merging disparate organisations. There are common interests, but also antagonisms, and a complicated network of interdependence will create a completely novel organism whose character cannot be foretold.     

Transpacific Trade Imbalances: Causes and Cures

This paper explores the causes of the transpacific trade imbalances using an empirical global model. It also evaluates the impact of various policies to reduce these imbalances. We find the fundamental cause of trade imbalance since 1997 is changes in saving‐investment gaps, attributed to the surge of the US fiscal deficits and the decline of East Asia's private investment after the 1997 financial crisis. Our simulation results show that a revaluation of East Asia's exchange rates by 10 per cent (effectively a shift in monetary policy) cannot resolve the imbalances. We find East Asia's concerted efforts to stimulate aggregate demand can have significant impacts on trade balances globally, but the impact on the US trade balance is not large. US fiscal contraction is estimated to have large impacts on the US trade position overall and on the bilateral trade balances with East Asian economies. These results suggest that in order to improve the transpacific imbalance, macroeconomic adjustment will need to be made on both sides of the Pacific.     

Do WTO+ commitments in services trade agreements reflect a quest for optimal regulatory convergence? Evidence from Asia

Literature examining WTO + commitments in services trade agreements (STA s) has not considered the role of services regulation. We bridge this gap using a sample of 15 South/South‐East Asian countries, given the burgeoning trend of Asian economies towards services preferentialism and the largely WTO + nature of their preferential services commitments. Our empirical findings suggest that Asian trading dyads with regulatory frameworks that are more similar and more trade restrictive tend to undertake higher levels of WTO + commitments in their STA s. There is also evidence in our results, including by modes of supply, for WTO + commitments in Asian STA s being driven by goods trade complementarities, alluding to supply chain dynamics in the region. Such results support the hypothesis that the heightened “servicification” of production generates a demand to lower services input costs arising from regulatory incidence and heterogeneity.     

中国石化产品市场现状与预测

从中国石化工业继续实施扩能和石化产品供需状况出发,评述了乙烯等石化基础原料、对苯二甲酸等石化有机原料和中间体与三大合成材料的市场现状以及未来市场发展预测。到2015年中国乙烯市场仍将供不应求,但中东地区低成本乙烯的进入将使中国企业面临压力。中国丙烯市场缺口在400万t以上。苯、甲苯产能将明显过剩,对二甲苯的供应缺口也大幅缩小,芳烃市场将面临供过于求的局面。2015年中国合成橡胶产能将超过300万t/a,通用大品种将产能过剩,而IIR、EPDM及其他特种橡胶仍可能产不足需。     

Labour Migration and Economic Growth in East and South‐East Asia

East and South‐East Asia will face major demographic changes over the next few decades with many countries’ labour forces starting to decline, while others experience higher labour force growth as populations and/or participation rates increase. A well‐managed labour migration strategy presents itself as a mechanism for ameliorating the impending labour shortages in some East Asia–Pacific countries, while providing an opportunity for other countries with excess labour to provide migrant workers who will contribute to the development of the home country through greater remittance flows. This paper examines such migration policy options using a global dynamic economic simulation approach and finds that allowing migrants to respond to the major demographic changes occurring in Asia over the next 50 years would be beneficial to most economies in the region in terms of real incomes and real GDP over the 2007–50 period. Such a policy could deeply affect the net migration position of a country. Countries that were net recipients under current migration policies might become net senders under the more liberal policy regime.     

A comparative analysis of marketing promotions and implications for data analytics

Retailers use many different marketing promotions to increase sales and profits. These promotions include price reductions, coupons, cash mail-in rebates, free gift cards, and buy-one-get-one (BOGO) discounts. The type of promotion used results in different outcomes for demand, profit, average price, consumer surplus, and sales taxes collected. We perform comparative analysis of these five promotions and their outcomes. We show that for the same discount amount, price reductions result in the lowest average price. For products with weakly diminishing consumer utility and low consumer stockpiling, BOGO promotions result in the largest demand, profit, consumer surplus, and taxes collected. Cash mail-in rebates may result in large profit and taxes collected, but they perform poorly in terms of average price paid and consumer surplus. We also find that a retailer offering a delayed incentive (i.e. gift cards and mail-in rebates) offers a larger reward but provides lower consumer surplus than when offering an immediate incentive (i.e. price reduction and BOGO). In a segmented market with a price-insensitive consumer segment, immediate incentives have the disadvantage of allowing price-insensitive consumers arriving during the promotion to obtain the discount, which reduces the discount effectiveness. The addition of more retailer objectives to maximizing profit, such as demand maximization or consumer surplus, increases the effectiveness of immediate incentives. We also provide a framework for estimating the important parameters for evaluating promotion effectiveness using readily available transactional data and examine its accuracy using a simulation experiment.     

中国—欧盟贸易差额现状及其原因的实证分析

在分析中国与欧盟双边贸易差额数据差异的基础上,利用主成分分析方法,将影响中欧贸易差额的原因归为供给变量、需求变量和贸易政策环境三大因素。再利用多变量回归分析方法,研究其影响。结论为供给因素是影响中欧贸易差额扩大的根本原因,近期的贸易政策环境的变化是导致中欧贸易顺差扩大的短期因素,而需求因素的变化有减少中欧贸易差额的作用。