Determinants of Trade Costs and Trade Growth Accounting between India and the European Union during 1995–2010

This study aimed to utilise the micro‐founded measure of trade cost derived by Novy to estimate the relative bilateral trade costs of India with its European Union partners. The advantage of using such a model is that the trade costs can be derived entirely using observable trade data. The results show that Indian tariff equivalent with its major EU trading partners has declined by 20 percentage points between 1995 and 2010, with Malta and Latvia experiencing the greatest decline. The study then decomposes the bilateral trade growth to ascertain whether it is an outcome of increased domestic production or reduction in bilateral and multilateral trade barriers. Novy's model indicates that the decline in relative bilateral trade costs explains the greatest percentage of this trade growth, which is partially offset by decline in multilateral resistance terms that has diverted trade away to other trading partners primarily in South and South‐East Asia and North America.     

Trade disputes,quality choice,and economic integration

Recent work demonstrates the importance of developing high quality output in order to compete in export markets and other recent studies verify the prevalence of fixed and ongoing trade costs while participating in those markets. I consider the joint choice of quality and export promotion costs when trade relationships are subject to temporary disputes. When transparency is low and macroeconomic instability is high, disputes arrive more frequently and, therefore, firms may inefficiently choose lower levels of quality and export promotion. These, in turn, build shallower trading relationships with less trade volumes and higher tariffs, and generate greater trade reductions during the more common trade disputes. Several institutional features of the WTO dispute settlement mechanism that are generally lacking in preferential trade agreements such as improved transparency, dispute investigation, and the provision to recommend asymmetric continuation payoffs can ameliorate these inefficient quality choice outcomes. Hence, lower quality output and lower quality trading relationships may be more endemic to countries that depend on preferential trading areas as opposed to the WTO.     

Entrepreneurship and Illegality: Insights from the Nigerian cross-border Trade

Illegal business activity is common throughout the world, occurs in a diversity of forms, and is often viewed as the darker side of entrepreneurship. Of particular interest is illegal cross-border trade, which occurs at low levels between developed countries, but is often widespread between developing countries. It is on the increase, despite many attempts by governments to eradicate it. Yet illegal trading is poorly studied both theoretically and empirically from an entrepreneurial perspective. The paper outlines a working model exploring the relationships between key entrepreneurial factors and illegal trading, and explores the model using fieldwork data collected by the first author in Nigeria during an 8-month ethnographic study of cross-border trading. The Nigerian cross-border trade is particularly interesting, as it takes place in an environment of long-standing illegality and corruption. The findings reveal that illegal practices are so widespread that they are a norm, an almost parallel economy with its own traditions and values. In this context, entrepreneurial advantage in trading illegally is quite different from that which would be expected in more familiar Western contexts. The entrepreneurial advantages of trading in illegal goods and evading duties appear overwhelming at first, as bribery of officials is widely accepted, which reduces risk of law enforcement to negligible levels, and most traders do not view illegal trading as immoral. Closer analysis reveals, however, that traders need to bribe to trade any goods, legal as well as illegal. Bribery is part of a system of harassment by officials that pervades all aspects of the trade. In this climate, there are no special advantages in targeting illegal goods to trade in. The distinction between what is legal and illegal becomes blurred and irrelevant. Traders target any goods irrespective of their legal status if potential profit margins are high. Entrepreneurial advantage thus lies in the trade itself and making it work, not in its illegality. Most entrepreneurial energy is devoted to creatively circumvent the harassment of corrupt officials, not to exploit illegal business opportunities. The paper concludes by demonstrating that certain factors are crucial to our understanding of the relationship between entrepreneurship and illegal trading, in both Western and Nigerian contexts, but that the relationships between the factors differ widely in the two contexts. The model constructed provides a basis for further comparative research in other regional contexts. In terms of policy implications, the illegality of the trade is of some benefit in that it has created hundreds of associated jobs and businesses, which enable traders to operate more securely and efficiently in the climate of corruption, harassment, and uncertainty. Most traders, however, have learnt to profitably live with illegality, but nonetheless, would still prefer to trade in a less stressful and impartial legal system. Illegality on balance is more harmful than beneficial for economic development. Removing illegality once institutionalised, however, is not a simple matter and no solution can be found without fuller understanding of the sociology and the entrepreneurial processes of illegal trading.     

OPTIMAL LIQUIDATION AND ADVERSE SELECTION IN DARK POOLS

We consider an investor who has access both to a traditional venue and a dark pool for liquidating a position in a single asset. While trade execution is certain on the traditional exchange, she faces linear price impact costs. On the other hand, dark pool orders suffer from adverse selection and trade execution is uncertain. Adverse selection decreases order sizes in the dark pool while it speeds up trading at the exchange. For small orders, it is optimal to avoid the dark pool completely. Adverse selection can prevent profitable round‐trip trading strategies that otherwise would arise if permanent price impact were included in the model.     

绥芬河自贸片区贸易便利化实践研究

本文介绍了绥芬河自贸区开辟铁路互贸交易点、赋予农村农业合作社开展互市贸易经营权、拓展互贸商品进口准入国范围、创新俄籍自然人从事互贸业务规范化管理模式、培育互市贸易新业态新模式、金融外汇结算等制度创新的主要做法和实践效果,提出了贸易便利化要找准政策切入点、因时制宜、助力特色产业优化升级、加强内外联动、引领投资便利化、优化金融服务、注意防范风险等对策建议。     

An Experiment Testing the Determinants of Non-Compliance with Insider Trading Laws

Recent stories of corporate insiders avoiding losses and, in some cases, generating enormous personal profits as their companies crumbled have led investors to question the integrity of American business and the fairness of the United States stock markets. The SEC tries to ensure the fairness of the stock markets by making and enforcing laws against unfair practices such as insider trading. In the United States, when insiders trade stock based on non-public information, they have broken the law and betrayed the trust that has been placed in them.This study used student subjects to test the relationship between the likelihood of trading based on insider information and subjective probabilities of deterrents and motivations for insider trading. Expected gain, guilt, cynicism, and fairness of laws were the determinants that had a significant relationship with the intent to trade based on insider information. This study also found support for prospect theory with regard to insider trading. The results indicate that subjects are more likely to trade based on insider information to avoid a loss than to achieve an abnormal gain. The study also finds evidence of social desirability response bias.Additional findings of the study were that subjects did not view the determinants for themselves in a manner consistent with how they viewed those same deterrents and motivations for other people. Also, a test of the effects of gender found that certainty and social stigma were significantly higher for female respondents than for male respondents.     

中国-新加坡贸易竞争性和互补性的实证分析

本文运用贸易结合度指数、显性比较优势指数和贸易特化系数对中新双边贸易的现状和发展趋势、比较优势和贸易互补性进行了研究,从实证分析的角度,证明中国与新加坡在比较优势上存在较明显差异,进而分析了中新贸易互补关系及其产生原因,得出结论。基于产业内分工、相似需求和外国直接投资的产业内互补成为中新两国贸易关系的主要特征。     

India's Informal Trade with Bangladesh: A Qualitative Assessment

The large and vibrant informal trade between India, and Bangladesh continues to thrive despite unilateral/regional/multilateral trade liberalisation in these two countries. This calls for an in-depth analysis of India's informal trade with Bangladesh. Using insights from the New Institutional Economics informal and formal institutions engaged in cross-border trade are contrasted to examine whether informal trading arrangements provide better institutional solutions. The analysis, carried out on the basis of an extensive survey conducted in India and Bangladesh reveals that informal traders in India and Bangladesh have developed efficient mechanisms for contract enforcement, information flows, risk sharing and risk mitigation. Further, informal traders prefer to trade through the informal channel because the transaction costs of trading in the informal channel are significantly lower than the formal channel implying that informal trade takes place due to the inefficient institutional set up in the formal channel. The principal policy implication from the study is that unless the transacting environment of formal traders improves, informal trade will continue to coexist with formal trade, even if free trade is established in the SAARC region.     

Carbon,Trade Policy and Carbon Free Trade Areas

This paper discusses both the potential contribution that trade policy initiatives can make towards the achievement of significant global carbon emissions reduction and the potential impacts of proposals now circulating for carbon reduction motivated geographical trade arrangements, including carbon‐free trade areas. We first suggest that trade policy is likely to be a relatively minor consideration in climate change containment. The dominant influence on carbon emissions globally for the next several decades will be growth more than trade and its composition, and in turn, the size of trade seemingly matters more than its composition given differences in emission intensity between tradables and non‐tradables. We then note that differences in emissions intensity across countries are larger than across products or sectors and so issues of country discrimination in trade policy (and violations of MFN) arise. We next discuss both unilateral and regional carbon motivated trade policy arrangements, including three potential variants of carbon emission reduction based free trade area arrangements. One is regional trade agreements with varying types of trade preferences towards low carbon‐intensive products, low carbon new technologies and inputs to low carbon processes. A second is the use of joint border measures against third parties to counteract anti‐competitive effects from groups of countries taking on deeper emission reduction commitments. A third is third‐country trade barriers along with free trade or other regional trade agreements as penalty mechanisms to pressure other countries to join emission‐reducing environmental agreements. We differentiate among the objectives, forms and possible impacts of each variant. We also speculate as to how the world trading system may evolve in the next few decades as trade policy potentially becomes increasingly dominated by environmental concerns. We suggest that the future evolution of the trading system will likely be with environmentally motivated arrangements acting as an overlay on prevailing trade and financial arrangements in the WTO and IMF, and eventually movement to linked global trade and environmental policy bargaining.     

Multilateral,Regional and Bilateral Trade‐Policy Options for the United States and Japan

We have used the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to simulate the economic effects on the United States, Japan, and other major trading countries/regions of the Doha Round of WTO multilateral trade negotiations and a variety of regional/bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) involving the United States and Japan. We estimate that an assumed reduction of post‐Uruguay Round tariffs and other barriers on agricultural and industrial products and services by 33 per cent in the Doha Round would increase world welfare by $686.4 billion, with gains of $164.0 billion for the United States, $132.6 billion for Japan, and significant gains for all other industrialised and developing countries/regions. If there were global free trade with all post‐Uruguay Round trade barriers completely removed, world welfare would increase by $2.1 trillion, with gains of $497.0 billion (5.5 per cent of GNP) for the United States and $401.9 billion (6.2 per cent of GNP) for Japan. Regional agreements such as an APEC FTA, an ASEAN Plus 3 FTA, and a Western Hemisphere FTA would increase global and member country welfare but much less so than the Doha multilateral trade round would. Separate bilateral FTAs involving Japan with Singapore, Mexico, Chile and Korea, and the United States with Chile, Singapore and Korea would have positive, though generally small, welfare effects on the partner countries, but potentially disruptive sectoral employment shifts in some countries. There would be trade diversion and detrimental welfare effects on some non‐member countries for both the regional and bilateral FTAs analysed. The welfare gains from multilateral trade liberalisation are therefore considerably greater than the gains from preferential trading arrangements and more uniformly positive for all countries.     

The Pattern of Intraday Portfolio Management Decisions: A Case Study of Intraday Security Return Patterns

This article examines causes of observed stock trading patterns that show high hourly returns and trading volume during early and late trading hours. Using time-stamped data from an institutional investor, we document high levels of portfolio managers' early-morning and late-afternoon decisions to trade that can result in the volume pattern and relatively higher proportions of buy decisions that could contribute to the return pattern.     

The Performance of Trading Firms in the Services Sectors – Comparable Evidence from Four EU Countries

We examine trade complexity and the implications of adding additional dimensions of trade for firm performance among services producers. We use unique firm‐level data to compare these patterns across four EU countries. Overall, services firms are relatively less engaged in trade than manufacturing firms; they mostly trade goods and are more likely to import than to export. Trade in services is quite rare; services are more likely to be traded by firms already trading goods. Trading firms in the services sectors are significantly larger, more productive and pay higher wages than non‐traders. Two‐way traders outperform one‐way traders. Changes in trading status by either adding another dimension of trade (imports, exports) or another type of product (goods, services) are infrequent and are associated with significant preswitching premia. In contrast, learning effects from switching trading status are uncommon. This points to significant fixed cost of being engaged in trade and confirms some previous findings that trading services firms have similar traits as their manufacturing counterparts. Apart from greater trade participation in smaller countries, we do not observe systematic differences in terms of trade or switching premia between the four countries that might be attributable to differences in country characteristics.     

中美纺织品贸易摩擦及美方利益集团分析——基于特定要素模型的解释

近年来,中美贸易摩擦不断升级,而纺织品贸易摩擦一直是碰撞的焦点。然而,根据传统国际贸易理论,美方在中美纺织品贸易中应该会获利,贸易冲突将不会产生。基于这一理论和现实的错位,文章在国际贸易特定要素模型基础之上,通过对模型的修正,描述了各利益集团在贸易中的得失,及在政治中所扮演的角色。研究表明,中美贸易摩擦产生的根本原因在于贸易中美方各利益集团不同的利益,由此中美纺织品贸易摩擦的本质在于中方与美方某一利益集团的冲突和摩擦。     

Facing up to Trump administration mercantilism: The 2018 WTO trade policy review of the United States

As one of the largest trading economies in the WTO system, US trade policy is reviewed regularly by WTO members, informed by a Trade Policy Review (TPR) report. This paper discusses the 2018 TPR of the United States, the 14th such review undertaken since the entry into force of the WTO in 1995. It is the first review of trade policy under the Trump administration. While the TPR documents the significant changes in US trade policy, it does not engage with the mercantilist vision that motivates trade policy under President Trump or the apparent desire to engage in trade wars with its major trading partners. The lack of discussion of the existential threat to the liberal trading system implied by the drastic changes to US trade policy reduces the salience of the TPR and makes it unclear exactly what purpose it serves.     

The double-edged impact of social media on online trading: Opportunities,threats, and recommendations for organizations

While we understand well how social media channels sway consumers, there is little understanding of their influence on online trading behavior. We argue that social media are creating a new class of self-directed online traders by simultaneously encouraging and biasing trading decisions. Through an empirical study, we show that heavy social media users are more likely to engage in online trading but are largely affected by online herding behavior, and are four times more likely to blindly follow other traders. Bloggers, influencers, social network contacts, and social media news shape these users’ online trading behaviors. As online traders influenced by social media are unlikely to receive adequate returns, companies face an ethical dilemma: They could leverage social media to efficiently access funds but they risk inappropriately exploiting the inexperience of online traders biased by social media. We offer a set of nine practical recommendations for organizations to respond to these new challenges.     

学商合一的高职商务英语实践教学模式探索

21世纪的世界,经济全球化方兴未艾,中国作为世界贸易大国,也加快了与世界各国交流和贸易的步伐。国际经济合作的日益繁荣,迫切需要一大批既精通语言知识又具有较强商务知识的高级复合型应用型人才。适应世界经济和贸易的发展,高职教育工作者必须审时度势,创新教学观念,改革滞后的商务英语专业教学模式和人才培养模式,逐步建立以实践教学为核心,学商高度结合的新的教学模式,才能培养和造就具有过硬外语能力的高级商务人才,提升商务英语专业人才的国际竞争力。     

US trade policy in an unbalanced world economy

Both the national as well as the international debate on US trade policy are overshadowed, and strongly influenced, by the large external inbalances of major trading nations. What do these disequilibria mean for US trade policy? Moreover, is the USA losing comparative advantage in agriculture and high-technology manufacturing? Do industrial policies in other countries distort American trade?     

The Politics of Japan–China Trade and the Role of the World Trade System

The large and rapidly growing trade relationship between Japan and China has occurred against a backdrop of political tensions. This study measures performance of the trade relationship, benchmarking it against other trade flows worldwide, and examines the impact of the politics on bilateral trade performance. To do this, a frontier gravity model is estimated using core determinants of trade. This gives a benchmark against which to measure trade performance, explained using resistances to trade. While the economic relationship is not independent from the politics, an important conclusion is that trade has not been diminished or disturbed by politics to a significant extent. China’s commitment to the global trading system from the mid‐1980s and its accession to the WTO in 2001 has meant that tensions in the political relationship with Japan from time to time have not derailed, but rather have increasingly come to be dominated, by the economic relationship.     

What will Obama Bring to Sino-U.S. Trade？

As the major trading partners to each other, China and the U.S. have enjoyed two-digit growth in bilateral trade during the past few years. ,Now, as the dust settles from Obama＇s election,what can we expect from the president-elect in terms of China policy？ Will Obama and his administration redraw the trade policy with China after he taking office, and how much effect will that exert on the Sino-U.S. trade relation？     

区域贸易优惠与最惠国待遇关系的冲突与法律协调——兼论我国之应对措施

区域贸易合作与多边贸易体制虽具有互补性,但彼此不能相互替代;区域贸易优惠与多边最惠国待遇实质上存在冲突,但它作为一项特殊例外存续于世贸组织体制之内。世贸组织规则确立了区域贸易优惠的合法性,从而为区域贸易提供了前所未有的发展机遇。分析区域贸易合作与多边贸易体制的关系、区域贸易优惠与世贸组织最惠国待遇的冲突,以及世贸组织规则对两者间关系的协调,有助于了解区域一体化发展进程,及时采取积极的应对措施。