Institutional Prerequisites of Economic Partnership Agreements

At the end of 2007 the WTO waiver granted for the non-reciprocal EU/ACP trade preferences will phase out. New economic partnership agreements are currently under negotiation, but whether the ACP countries will be able to benefit from them depends to a large extent on the institutional setting in those countries. The following article takes the example of the Economic Community of West African States to examine the situation more closely.     

The WTO Compatibility of the Economic Partnership Agreements between the EU and the ACP Countries

The economic partnership agreements (EPAs) to be negotiated between the European Union and six different ACP regions under the Cotonou Agreement are intended to be in conformity with WTO rules, i.e. satisfy GATT Article XXIV and GATS Article V. To what extent is this realistic? What would be the effects on the ACP countries?

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This article summarises the following study: A. Borrmann, H. Gro?mann, and G. Koopmann: The WTO Compatibility of the Economic Partnership Agreement between the EU and the ACP States, Study on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development and the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) GmbH, Eschborn 2005, http://www.gtz.de/de/dokumente/enwto-epa-acp-2005.pdf.     

Economic Partnership Agreements Between Sub‐Saharan Africa and the EU: A Development Perspective

This paper draws on Hinkle and Schiff (2003). It analyses the planned Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) between the EU and Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) from a development perspective. It does not take a position on whether SSA should enter into EPAs with the EU. Rather, it starts from the notion that the process of forming EPAs is unlikely to be reversed and examines the conditions that will maximise SSA's benefits from the EPAs. If this notion is correct, then the analysis presented in the paper applies. On the other hand, Pascal Lamy, the EU Trade Commissioner, made a proposal at the May 2004 G‐90 summit in Dakar that might lead to a change in the EPA process. He proposed that the G‐90, a group consisting of ACP and non‐ACP LDC countries, should not have to make concessions at the WTO Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations, i.e., he proposed a ‘free round’ for the G‐90. This proposal opens the door to the possibility that the same might apply to the ACP countries in the EU‐ACP negotiations and that the EPA process might be reversed. The paper considers the key issues raised by the planned EPAs, their relationship to the WTO's Doha Round and the EU's Everything‐but‐Arms Initiative, the changes needed to make the EPAs internally consistent, the domestic reforms in SSA that would need to accompany trade liberalisation in both goods and services, and the potential effects of the EPAs on regional integration in SSA. The EPAs will pose a number of policy challenges for SSA countries, including: restructuring of indirect tax systems, reduction of MFN tariffs, liberalisation of service imports on an MFN basis and related regulatory reforms in the services sector, and liberalisation of trade in both goods and services within the regional trading blocs in SSA. The paper also finds that the EPAs provide an opportunity to accelerate regional and global trade integration in SSA. To realise the potential development benefits of the planned EPAs, two steps are essential. First, the EU must, as it has stated, truly treat the EPAs as instruments of development, subordinating its commercial interests in the agreements to the development needs of SSA. Second, the SSA countries need to implement a number of EPA‐related trade policy reforms. However, the latter is far from certain, given the lack of reform momentum in SSA.     

The Impact of EU Preferential Trade Agreements on Foreign Direct Investment

Although North–South preferential trade agreements (PTAs) are expected to affect foreign direct investment (FDI), there is not much evidence to date on the impact of EU PTAs on the pattern of FDI. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of EU PTAs on the outward stocks of FDI of the EU. We estimate a model based on the knowledge‐capital theory of the multinational enterprise over the period 1995–2005 using a sample of 173 host countries. Explanatory variables include measures of the level of bilateral protection and a dummy to capture the impact of deep integration provisions of PTAs. A dynamic panel model with fixed effects is used in order to take into account the dynamic behaviour of FDI and the heterogeneity bias. Results show that EU FDI is both horizontal and vertical. The level of EU protection affects FDI negatively, while the impact of the tariffs applied by host countries varies across groups of partner countries. Deep integration provisions affect EU FDI positively.     

The future of cooperation between the EU and ACP countries

Something over 20 years after the first Lomé Agreement came into force, most of the ACP countries are still among the poorest in the world. Why have these countries' situations not improved despite the Agreements? Why has their share of total EC imports from developing countries fallen in spite of the tariff preferences they are granted? What conclusions ought to be drawn for future cooperation between the EC and ACP countries?     

How to Balance the Outcomes of the Economic Partnership Agreements for Sub‐Saharan African Economies?

Since 2002, the Sub‐Saharan African countries ( except South Africa which already has a free‐trade agreement with the EU ) have embarked on free‐trade agreement negotiations with the European Union. These arrangements will replace the Cotonou scheme, which requires these countries to eliminate their tariffs on ‘substantially’ all their European imports. Based on a general equilibrium analysis, this study estimates the potential effects of these agreements by considering different levels of reciprocity in the commitments of the Sub‐Saharan African countries. It shows that the ‘standard’ EU proposal, whereby Sub‐Saharan African countries would cut tariffs on 80 per cent of their European imports, would not be enough to balance the outcome of the Economic Partnership Agreements. As a result of the asymmetries between European and African protections and supply‐side capacities, African countries could experience a balance of trade deficit of USD 1.8 billion associated with a 0.1 per cent decrease in GDP. This proposal, which also induces an industrial restructuring to the benefit of the agro‐processing industries, will create a significant fiscal burden. A lesser level of commitment could largely mitigate these unfavourable results; by reciprocating tariff eliminations on only 60 per cent of their European imports, African countries would reduce the trade imbalance and fiscal losses induced by these agreements by 21 and 51 per cent respectively.     

Preference Utilisation and Tariff Reduction in EU Imports from ACP Countries

Despite the long relationship between the European Union and the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries aimed at encouraging their exports while stimulating growth and investment, the ACP states still face difficulties in integrating into the world economy. This paper examines the non‐least developed ACP countries preferential trade with the EU using data on EU member states’ imports eligible for preferences under the Cotonou agreement for the period 2001 at the 8‐digit level. Using data on tariffs and preferential quota applicable on each 8‐digit product for the year 2001 ad‐valorem tariff rates were calculated. The paper also investigates the existence of a threshold in the offered duty reduction under which traders have no incentives to ask for preferences since the costs of obtaining these exceeds their benefits. Our results showed that the higher the value of preferences offered, the higher the probability that preferences are requested. Using endogenous threshold estimation techniques we also provided evidence that there exists a minimum value of preferences needed for traders to request preferences. More specifically, if the difference between preferential and third country tariff rates are lower than 4 per cent, there are no incentives for traders to request preferences since the costs of obtaining the preferences are expected to be higher than the benefits from obtaining the preferences. Our results additionally indicate that country specificities also play an important role in the decision whether requesting preferences or not and how much to import.     

Bilateral Free Trade Agreements and Customs Unions: The Impact of the EU Republic of South Africa Free Trade Agreement on Botswana

The EU has indicated that after 2008 its trade relationships with developing countries will be dominated by the development of preferential trade agreements. Although not a consequence of the Cotonou Agreement, the free trade agreement between the EU and the Republic of South Africa (EU RSA FTA) was clearly one of the first fruits of this approach to trade relationships. However, there is no evidence that the design of the EU RSA FTA incorporated a comprehensive general equilibrium evaluation of the agreement for either the signatories or the other southern African nations. The analyses reported here indicate that while the EU RSA FTA may substantially benefit the signatories, there are appreciable negative impacts for other states, especially the Republic of South Africa's immediate neighbours. Moreover, the analyses indicate that the structural adjustments for African economies signalled by the FTA are substantial, which implies that there will be substantial economic costs associated with the FTA.     

The EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement: Relevance,Content and Policy Implications

On 6 July 2017, after four years of negotiation, the EU reached an agreement with Japan over the main elements of a comprehensive free trade agreement. The breakthrough came at a time when progress on multilateral trade negotiations at the global level seemed out of reach and EU bilateral trade agreements faced strong public opposition. This paper examines the content of the new agreement with a view to global trade dynamics and assesses its main trade policy implications.     

中美战略和经济伙伴关系到了该行动的时刻

中美相互依存度日益增高,双方一直努力寻求建立积极的战略和经济伙伴关系,但遗憾的是进展非常缓慢,近两年似乎是分道扬镳。究其根源是美国政界出于思维定式对中国和平发展的真实战略意图产生误判,一系列试图遏制中国经济发展的贸易保护主义措施不断高涨。实际上,这种政策是逆经济全球化和贸易自由化的潮流而动,既损害中美双方经济利益和两国人民福利,也破坏多边贸易体系,延缓全球经济复苏的进程。     

当前经济运行的基本态势与宏观经济政策选择

经过20年的持续快速增长,我国经济发展取得了举世瞩目的巨大成就.在"九五"时期,通过适时适度调整宏观调控政策,克服了亚洲金融危机对我国经济发展带来的巨大冲击,抑制了通货紧缩,扭转了经济增长持续下滑的不良趋势,提前超额完成了第二步发展战略目标,为未来经济增长和实现第三步发展战略目标奠定了坚实的基础.同时,改革与发展中长期积聚的诸多矛盾,在"九五"期间也日渐显露,对后续经济发展构成了重大阻碍.正确把握新时期经济发展的特点和主要矛盾,确立符合经济发展客观规律要求的可行发展战略,采取适应新时期、新问题、新目标要求的宏观经济政策,通过结构调整和制度创新切实转变经济增长方式,在发展中逐步解决各种新旧结构性矛盾,是"十五"期间经济持续快速发展的关键,也是实现第二步发展战略目标的保证.     

Embracing Free Trade: The EU's Economic Partnership with Algeria

In recent years the European Union (EU) has concluded a new generation of agreements with its Mediterranean partners as part of a new initiative known as the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership. The following paper takes the example of Algeria and examines the likely impact of the progressive formation of a bilateral free trade area on the participating economies.     

欧盟对中欧经贸关系进行战略评估 重点是知识产权保护、市场准入和投资机会

欧盟委员会5月8日表示，由于中国在经济上的崛起，欧盟将在今年第4季度发表有关中国与欧盟经济与贸易关系的评估文件，以决定下一个10年欧盟应如何处理与中国的关系。     

欧盟技术性贸易壁垒及其对我国的影响

欧盟技术性贸易壁垒主要由欧盟指令、技术标准、合格评定程序以及绿色贸易壁垒、包装标签要求几个主要方面构成,已成为我国商品出口欧盟市场的主要屏障。我国必须充分发挥政府宏观调控职能,建立技术贸易壁垒的管理体系,积极采用国际标准,提高产品的国际竞争力,以突破欧盟的技术性贸易壁垒。     

《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》的经济效应及产业产出分析

为进一步推进《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》进程,东盟及中国、日本、韩国、澳大利亚、新西兰、印度等亚太地区的各个经济体通过“抱团”的方式增强亚太地区的经济实力,提高国际贸易的话语权。本文分析《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》成员在亚太地区的经济规模以及各个成员经济体的产业竞争优势,运用GTAP9.0数据库和一般均衡模型,以逐步降低《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》内部成员之间关税水平的方式,探讨《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》成员的宏观经济及产业产出情况。随着《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》成员内部关税水平的逐步降低直至零关税水平,成员经济体的进出口贸易、福利水平等方面都有不同程度的增加,中国、日本、韩国、澳大利亚、新西兰等国的国内经济产出增加、贸易条件得到改善,而印度和东盟的国内经济出现一定程度的负效应、贸易条件出现小幅恶化现象;同时,各个成员方的产业互补优势更加明显。     

欧盟发展新趋势及其经济学分析

鉴于世界政治、经济形势的变化以及全球经济一体化趋势影响的不断深化,欧盟也在综合分析全球形势与自身发展情况的基础上,逐渐调整了自身的发展思路并进而形成了以紧密与松散并存、灵活性与非一致性并存以及由封闭逐渐走向开放为特色的运作发展新趋势.新趋势的形成并非偶然,除了政治方面的需求以外,它还有着深刻的经济方面的动因.但无论如何,从发展路径上看,一个以国家主权为基础、强调灵活性、允许一体化发展速度有差异且又具有明显圈层结构的欧盟仍将长期存在.     

非正式融资:理论、现实与对策

本文从理论和现实两个角度阐述了非正式融资①存在的必然性和合理性,并对我国非正式融资存在的特殊原因、历史作用和发展障碍进行了较为全面地分析,在此基础上提出了发展非正式融资的政策建议.     

Social Media Index Valuation: Impact of Technological,Social, Economic,and Ethical Dimensions

Marketing practitioners have recognized a growing need to measure consumer-generated social media in a standard way since there are numerous social media indicators in use, making intra- and inter-company comparisons difficult. This paper identifies four social media dimensions for measurement and evaluation: technological, social, economic, and ethical; and, subsequently, measures social media. The study makes a contribution to social media literature by using analytic hierarchy process of developing a mathematical model for social media index valuation. The “social media composite index number” will serve as an industry benchmark signifying the organization's share and commitment to social media.