Finding Market Power in Electric Power Markets

As part of the regulatory review of electric utility mergers in the United States, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission requires utilities to submit market power studies. The Commission has specified a detailed method for calculating market concentration in these studies.This paper shows that one can simulate the actual price effects from the merger by using similar data and models. Using the merger between Union Electric and Central Illinois Public Service Company as an example, this paper demonstrates that the Commission's method is unsound and often identifies competitive problems that are not likely to exist.     

Market Concentration and Product Variety under Spatial Competition: Evidence from Retail Gasoline

We show that for a spatially differentiated economy reduced product variety is the likely outcome of mergers except in cases where exit costs in relation to (outlet specific) fixed costs are high. Our empirical analysis of the Austrian retail gasoline market confirms that increases in concentration reduce product variety. Ignoring this product variety effect is likely to lead to an underestimate of market power in structural merger analysis.     

The Effects of Market Concentration and Horizontal Mergers on Hospital Costs and Prices

Antitrust advocates believe that horizontal consolidation in hospital markets can reduce competition and increase prices while merger advocates believe it can benefit consumers by reducing service duplication. This study analyzed the market conditions, operating characteristics, and costs and prices of approximately 3500 short-term general hospitals (including 112 within-market-area mergers) from 1986 to 1994 to investigate the effects of market concentration, hospital mergers, and managed care penetration. The results show: a shift away from non-price competition toward price competition in health care markets; that this shift was fueled by increased market penetration by price-sensitive buyers; that horizontal hospital mergers produced average cost savings of approximately 5%, which were generally passed on to consumers as lower prices; that cost savings were generally greater for mergers of similar-size hospitals, with a higher degree of duplicative services, and with lower pre-merger occupancy rates; and some evidence that post-merger price reductions were smaller in less-competitive markets.     

Predicting the Price Effect of Mergers with Polynomial Logit Demand

We propose a polynomial logit model to quantify the price effects of mergers in a static Nash setting. The proposed model is parsimonious in parameters and is shown to have excellent predictive power, rivaling the in-sample and out-of-sample predictive accuracy of the widely-used AIDS model.The analysis, using actual scanner data on bread sales, demonstrates that a linear logit model is likely to over-estimate the merger price effect.     

Mergers in Sealed versus Oral Auctions

In this paper, we study mergers in oral or second-price auctions and compare them to mergers in sealed-bid or first-price auctions. We use an adaptation of the logit qualitative choice model to characterize the underlying bidder value distributions. In second-price auctions, this model has a closed-form relationship between winning bids (prices) and the probabilities of winning (shares), and this relationship gives rise to a Herfindahl-like formula that predicts merger effects. We compare mergers in second-price auctions to mergers in first-price auctions. Despite their differences, sealed-bid merger effects are predicted by the oral Herfindahl-like formula.The source of this curious similarity is not apparent.     

Effect of R&D and Market Concentration on Merger Outcomes – An Event Study of US Horizontal Mergers

This study examines the pattern of abnormal returns for merging companies and rivals, to determine investor expectations regarding the impact of horizontal mergers challenged by the government. Prior studies have indicated that the government may have challenged efficiency-enhancing mergers, as evidenced by the pattern of abnormal returns to rivals during merger events. This study uses a two-stage regression approach to examine those patterns, using challenged mergers from 1997 to 2007, and finds evidence of potential price effects from approved mergers. The results also show the mergers to have differential effects depending on the level of R&D, market concentration, and product sales.     

The impact of mergers in banking : Evidence from a nationwide sample of federally chartered banks

Spurred by deregulation, cost, and risk factors, commercial bank mergers have accelerated sharply in recent years. Many banks appear to be positioning themselves for the advent of interstate banking through holding company or reciprocal branching arrangements. Yet, the performance effects of mergers among operating U.S. banks (as opposed to holding company acquisitions) have been examined both infrequently and inconclusively. This study focuses upon the characteristics and performance effects of national bank mergers occurring during the 1970–1980 period. Acquiring national banks were found to have lower operating efficiency and productivity than nonmerging banks and their profitability did not increase following the mergers, but credit availability, productivity, loan losses, deposit service charges, and interest-rate risk did rise. Frequency of merger activity did not significantly influence bank profitability or growth, but did augment stockholder risks and increase business and real-estate credit. In the aggregate, national bank mergers appeared to result neither in significant service benefits nor in significant service costs to the public.Spurred by deregulation of the industry, rising cost pressures, and increased operating risk, merger transactions among U.S. banks have soared in recent years. During the 1982–1986 period, for example, banking led all other industries in the number of consummated mergers and consistently was among the ten leading U.S. industries in the estimated market value of merger agreements. Moreover, the recent upsurge in reciprocal interstate banking agreements and proposals for fully legalized interstate banking hold out the prospect for a further acceleration in bank merger transactions in the years ahead. In view of the fact that legislation in more than 30 states now permits some form of interstate banking by merger or de novo entry and a June 1985 ruling of the U.S. Supreme Court has legitimized regional banking compacts, the public and private impact of bank mergers becomes of much greater importance as a research focus.Despite the magnitude of recent bank merger transactions and their implications for the public, the research literature in this area is surprisingly meager and often contradictory. This article is an attempt to focus more sharply on recent research findings, provide additional evidence concerning the effects of mergers on the financial performance of banks, and assess their impact on the public's interest in an adequate supply of financial services.     

On the welfare analysis of a cross-border merger

We provide a comparative welfare analysis of domestic and cross-national mergers. We focus, in particular, on the importance of possible synergies in mergers, the existing market structure and the bargaining power of the merging firms (in the case of a cross-border merger).     

Merger Patterns in the European Food Supply Chain

This paper investigates merger activity in the food supply chain in Europe as a whole, with an emphasis upon eight individual countries that were most merger active. It finds that M&A activity (vertical, horizontal, inward, and outward) has been substantial in both the production and distribution parts of the supply chain. Using spectral analysis, it also concludes that: (i) there are regular cyclical patterns in merger activity in seven of the eight countries; (ii) most countries exhibit strong coherency with overall EU merger activity in the food industry; (iii) the relative cyclical pattern of mergers in food manufacturing and retailing varies country to country; (iv) there is some evidence that mergers in manufacturing lead or Granger cause mergers in retailing; and (iv) patterns of merger activity in each of the countries studied (except for the UK and the Netherlands) are linked, at least in part, to business and capital market cycles.     

The effect of concentration and market power on food prices: evidence from Finland

This research examines empirically the relationship between economies of scale, concentration, and market power in food retailing. With unique, local market data available Finland, the analysis could investigate the impact of both local concentration and industry-wide concentration (which can be interpreted as multimarket contact) are taken into account in the evaluation of grocery retail competitiveness. The results show that the main factor affecting market power is the size of the retail firm. Larger share grocery retailers, for both the local and the national markets, carried higher mark-ups. At the same time, no firm-level scale economies were found from these larger firms. I conclude from these findings that the main purpose of large grocery retail mergers is to gain market power not efficiency.     

Are Bank Mergers Good News for Shareholders? The Effect of Bank Mergers on Shareholder Value in Japan

This study investigates the effects of bank mergers on the welfare of affiliated client firms. The findings demonstrate that, in general, bank mergers increase the welfare of client firms. However, there are significant differences in the impact of a bank merger on client firms across different merger, bank, and firm characteristics. Client firms of banks involved in mega‐mergers do not enjoy an increase in welfare. Client firms of undercapitalized banks in fact suffer significant welfare losses. In the long‐run, weak “zombie” firms also in many cases experience welfare losses following the announcement of a merger by their main bank.     

Impact of Horizontal Mergers on Research & Development and Patenting: Evidence from Merger Challenges in the U.S.

This paper contributes further empirical evidence on the effects of mergers on innovation using company level data. Evidence on this issue has implications for the relationship between innovation and market concentration. Our departure from previous work is that we focus on a sample of horizontal mergers whose market concentration impacts were flagged by U.S. antitrust authorities as potentially posing a problem for antitrust law compliance. We employ propensity score matching and difference-in-differences estimation to compare the innovation activities of challenged and non-challenged merger firms to a control group of non-merged firms. We use R&D, patent grants, and citation-weighted patent grants to measure the innovation activities of firms before and after a merger. Our results indicate that the post-merger innovation outcomes of firms whose mergers were challenged are lower than they would have been had the firms not merged. But for non-challenged mergers, or mergers that do not raise concerns about market concentration, post-merger innovation outcomes are not significantly different from what they would have been without a merger.     

What Do We Know about Success and Failure of Mergers?—Rejoinder

Responding to the comments of Coscelli, Lyons and Weston, I argue: (1) The aim of my paper was not primarily to discuss recent competition policy, but to extract stylized facts and compare them to theory; (2) utilizing all empirical merger studies published in refereed journals, instead of only the sound ones, does not appear to influence the results; (3) economies to scale—and consequently endogenous merger motives—are of less importance for mergers dealt with by the competition authorities; (4) a post-merger number of competitors of less than four to five steeply raises the likelihood of tacit collusion and conscious parallelism; (5) concentration is already high and still increasing in quite a number of markets; (6) mergers in network sectors are more dangerous than in manufacturing, as the number of potential competitors is small in most cases; (7) I agree with my critics that strictly banning the critical categories of mergers may be too harsh; I still hold, however, that competition authorities should take account of these critical types in a more formal way (e.g. by merger rules).     

Empirical Analysis of the Assessment of Innovation Effects in U.S. Merger Cases

In merger policy it is still an open question how the negative effects of mergers on innovation should be assessed. In this empirical study all mergers that were challenged by the U.S. antitrust agencies FTC and DOJ between 1995 and 2008 were analyzed in regard to the question to what extent and how the agencies assessed the innovation effects of mergers. The study also contributes to the discussion about differences and convergence in the merger assessments of the two agencies FTC and DOJ. Our results show (1) that in one third of all challenged mergers also innovation concerns have been raised (with no significant differences between the agencies). (2) Despite the wide-spread rejection of the “innovation market approach” in the antitrust debate the agencies used more often an innovation-specific assessment approach that includes also innovation in the market definition than the traditional product market concept. (3) Overall, we found both significant similarities and differences as well as some convergence over time in regard to the specifics of the assessment of innovation effects of mergers between both agencies.     

跨国市场竞争企业合并决策研究

通过构建一个两阶段古诺模型研究在跨国市场竞争的企业合并行为,发现企业的合并选择与国外市场相对规模、合并带来的边际成本降低程度相关,只有当国外市场规模变小或合并能够降低成本的程度较大时企业才会愿意合并。根据模型,促进整体福利的政府政策也应有针对性:对于能够带来提高生产效率的合并,政府应提供充足资金和政策支持;对于不能提高生产效率的合并,政策应激励企业进行研发和创新。     

When Is One Plus One More Than Two? Theory and Evidence of Merger Motivations

We devise a neoclassical economic model that reveals the underlying motivations for mergers, without resorting to distorted firm decisions or stock market inefficiency. Using empirical analyses to verify the model's predictions, we discover that mergers are more likely in economic booms than in recessions. Furthermore, we assert that a firm with insufficient physical capital is likely a bidder in a merger, whereas a firm with large physical capital is likely a target. Our findings are largely consistent with the waves of mergers during economic booms and the theory on operational synergies.     

Aggregate Australian Takeovers: A Review of Markov Regime Switching Models

This article reviews the case of modeling merger waves in the Australian market for the period 1972–2004. Three Markov switching models are examined, the Gaussian AR(1), Poisson AR(1), and State‐Space autoregressive moving average (ARMA) (1,1), to find which gives the best fit. The State‐Space Markov switching ARMA(1,1) model is found to be the best for describing Australian takeover activity as estimation results based on it have a lower Bayesian information criterion score than the other two models. Each model's ability to predict a ‘wave’ is then tested by including its estimated probability in a macroeconomic model to explain merger activity. The State‐Space model also performs better because the inclusion of its estimated probability substantially increases the explanatory power of the regression model (measured by the regression adjusted R²). In addition, it predicted a takeover wave in 2009, which was closer to the actual incidents of takeover activity in the market at that time than the predictions of the other two models. The results are robust when the measure of takeover activity is changed from the number of takeover bids to the proportion of takeover bids relatively to the number of exchange‐listed companies. JEL classification: G34, C32.     

Supramonopoly: Theory and Evidence from the US Air Passenger Service Markets

A supramonopoly is the market structure of a homogeneous good that is priced higher than the monopoly level. We present evidence of supramonopoly in the US air passenger service. For four airline mergers during the period of 1993 to 2009, we identify routes that dropped fares for no other reason than the increase in market power due to merger. Therefore each of those routes had fare higher than the monopoly level before the merger to monopoly. We explain supramonopoly as the result of a cartel with strongly punitive matching rules. We also discuss the striking implications for antitrust and regulatory policies.     

Trade Liberalisation,Market Structure and the Incentive to Merge

In this article, we consider whether a movement towards freer international trade generates incentives for firms to merge and if so what forms of merger are most profitable. In a linear Cournot framework, we show that a reduction in trade costs may, but will not necessarily, encourage mergers. Both market structure and the level to which trade costs fall are shown to play a decisive role. Domestic mergers will be encouraged only if the product market is not highly concentrated and trade costs fall below a threshold level. International mergers can be encouraged in any market structure, and are generally more profitable than domestic mergers.     

The Use of the Logit Model in Applied Industrial Organization

Qualitative choice models, such as the logit model, can capture important firm and product asymmetries. This paper surveys use of the logit model in industrial organization, with special focus on its application to merger analysis. The basic model and its motivation are reviewed, as is its estimation. Discussed in some detail is the use of the logit model to predict the price and welfare effects of horizontal mergers in differentiated products industries. Simulation using a qualitative choice model is argued to be far superior to traditional structural analysis. Logit merger simulations have the particular virtues of low informational and computational burdens and the use of the logit model can be motivated as reflecting a diffuse prior on the structure of demand.