Demystifying Japan's Economic Recovery

After having undergone protracted economic doldrums, Japan has begun to attract the world’s attention. Prime Minister Shintaro Abe, taking office in September 2006, pledged to continue his predecessor’s reforms while looking to closer economic ties with Japan’s neighboring countries. This paper examines the challenges the Abe administration must address, the reforms the administration still needs to tackle, and the problems that lie ahead. It starts with an evaluation of Japan’s economic condition from a long-term perspective, especially the drastic change in its labor market and its rapidly aging society. It then discusses the unfinished reforms the government is facing— restored fiscal balances, a less-regulated economy both at home and abroad, and a new innovation-driven growth path. In sharp contrast to his single-minded and charismatic predecessor, Prime Minister Abe has taken a less spectacular and more nuanced stance toward reforms. A more market-principled Japan will create increased competitive conditions for economic players in both the private and public sectors. Japan’s economy will face a precarious state—swinging between an economy armed with marketbased principles (but suffering from a “growth pain”) and an “ugly Japan” that divides the haves and the have-nots. JEL Classification 053, J10     

China's Demographic Destiny and Its Economic Implications

China appears to be at the edge of an historic demographic transition, setting the country on a path to grow old before it becomes prosperous. This paper presents a detailed picture of the current population dynamic and analyzes the implications for economic prospects. The results indicate that China is not yet at the stage of development where population changes matter a great deal for economic growth. But when that time comes, perhaps in a decade or so, demographic changes will have a profound influence not only on economic growth but on China’s global competitiveness. JEL Classification J100, J190, O530     

Population Pessimism and Economic Optimism in the Asian Giants

The timing of China’s and India’s demographic transitions and the implications of alternative fertility scenarios are explored here using a global economic model incorporating full demographic behaviour and measures of dependency that accurately reflect the changing proportion of workers, rather than working‐aged, in the total population. The baseline scenario confirms that demographic change in India may yield significant gains to future real per capita income, resulting from a continuing sharp decline in its total dependency ratio. For China, these gains are largely in the past, although the positive contribution of declining youth and working‐aged dependency to future per capita income will continue to offset the negative impact of rising aged dependency through to 2030. Whilst a policy change to foster higher fertility rates and hence more rapid population growth in China might ultimately ease its dependency burden, in the short run it will increase it. In any case, such a course is contradictory to the goal of delivering improvements in real per capita income. For India, we confirm that the benefits of further fertility reductions, in the form of increased real per capita income, are substantial.     

Economic Implications of Demographic Change: Diversity Dividend or Deficit?

The economic implications of demographic change depend on steadfast investments in research and development; replenishment of the human capital stock diminished by retiring Baby Boomers; and raising college attainment rates. This way the United States can leverage its diverse, fast-growing population to harness a demographic dividend—the productivity boost enabled by declining fertility—while also fueling economic growth, restocking the Social Security system, and bolstering global competitiveness.     

中国企业的学习型组织文化:基于人口统计变量、企业属性、工作满意度和组织绩效的实证分析

By using a Western concept—the instrument called dimensions of learning organization questionnaire (DLOQ), and the data collected from 919 employees in nine companies located in Guangdong Province, China, the present empirical study explores the culture of learning organizations in Chinese business settings. Findings suggest that the DLOQ is applicable to the context of China as well, and those demographic variables, such as age and educational level, together with the types of ownership of Chinese companies, such as state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and privately-owned enterprises (POEs), suggest differences in the culture of learning organizations. Results also indicate that the learning organization culture of a firm has strongly positive impact on employees’ job satisfaction and perceived organizational performance. Two implications should be noted. First, as employees in middle age and with college education show the strongest sense of improving the learning culture, it can be inferred that demographic characters and groups may influence the organization’s learning culture differently. Second, as POEs have a better learning atmosphere than SOEs, it can be inferred that POEs have a stronger competitiveness than SOEs in terms of learning ability and organizational performance. To indigenize the Western construct and instrument of learning organizations, the present study, as an exploratory research, gives substantial knowledge on the subject and seeks to fill the gap in the literature, despite the limitations of cultural nuances and a narrowly-concentrated sample.     

Old structures versus new logic in the electronics industry

Electronics is a branch of industry in which the competitive position of European firms is relatively weak, compared to the chemical, motor vehicle and mechanical engineering industries. This fact appears to some observers—in view of the electronic industry’s high rates of growth and its technologically “strategic” importance—to represent a threat to Europe’s future industrial development. This has led to intensive political discussions in recent years and to a multitude of initiatives for the revitalisation of the European electronics industry. This paper analyses the extent to which the discussions and initiatives have in fact dealt with the problems in hand.     

The Baltics: Continuing Boom or Bursting Bubble?

Since the late 1990s, the economies of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have experienced unprecedented economic growth, which has attracted a large number of foreign investors. American companies were among the first to seek business opportunities and have invested over $1 billion in the three countries as of 2008. However, the boom—partly financed on a loose credit policy—has recently created a fragile economic situation due to soaring wages, double-digit inflation, and high current account deficits. The resulting economic deceleration in the first half of 2008 has led analysts to comment that the “Baltic Bubble” is about to burst, potentially leading to a long-term recession. Other experts, nevertheless, maintain that the three countries are only experiencing a natural consolidation, which does not seriously endanger business opportunities in the long run. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the current condition of the Baltic economies and the environment for businesses there in order to determine if the three countries will still be attractive destinations for foreign direct investment (FDI) in the future.     

New business formation in a rapidly growing economy: the Irish experience

The extraordinary growth of the Irish economy since the mid-1990s—the ‘Celtic Tiger’—has attracted a great deal of interest, commentary and research. Indeed, many countries look to Ireland as an economic development role model, and it has been suggested that Ireland might provide key lessons for other EU members as they seek to achieve the objectives set out in the Lisbon Agenda. Much of the discussion of Ireland’s growth has focused on its possible triggers: the long-term consequences of the late 1980s fiscal stabilisation, EU structural funds, education, wage moderation and devaluation of the Irish punt. The industrial policy perspective has highlighted the importance of inflows of foreign direct investment, but a notable absence from the discourse on the ‘Celtic Tiger’ has been any mention of the role of new business venture creation and entrepreneurship. In this paper we use unpublished Irish VAT data for the years 1988–2004 to provide the first detailed look at national trends in business birth and death rates in Ireland over the ‘take-off’ period. We also use sub-national VAT data to shed light on spatial trends in new venture creation. Our overall conclusions are that new business formation made no detectable contribution to the acceleration of Ireland’s growth in the late 1990s, although we do find evidence of spatial convergence in per capita business stocks.     

Demographic Change and Policy Responses: Implications for the Global Economy

The fertility declines associated with the final phase of the global demographic transition have led to slower population growth and accelerated ageing in developed countries and in several advanced developing countries. A global demographic and economic model is used to assess the implications of these changes for population sizes, age‐gender distributions, labour force growth and their implications for economic performance. A baseline projection that incorporates declining fertility is compared with a hypothetical constant population growth scenario. The results show that slower population growth and ageing reduces average saving rates in industrial regions, yet global investment demand is also slowed and saving rates rise in developing regions, so there is no net tightening of financial markets. Increased aged labour force participation, considered one solution to the resulting rise in aged dependency in advanced regions, is found to redistribute investment in favour of the industrialised regions and hence to accelerate their per capita income growth, while conferring on the other regions compensatory terms of trade improvements. The alternative of replacement migration is found to require inconceivably large population movements. It also impairs real per capita growth in destination regions but by least in Western Europe, where the terms of trade are improved by the immigration.     

False Promises? A Sociological Critique of the Behavioural Turn in Law and Economics

Economic bestsellers like Freakonomics and Nudge that mainly address outsiders of the economic discipline are also consumed by lawyers. The latter has already become an important reference in the field of consumer law and policy. In principle, this is nothing to complain about but part of law’s encounter with science, namely the social sciences. Notably, the law and economics movement proved successful in importing economic perspectives into legal discourse. However, it would seem questionable if the law followed each trend on the academic book market. While there has been an increasing emphasis on economic perspectives at the expense of sociological perspectives within the field of law, economy, and society, a major shift can now also be observed in the field of law and economics. With the behavioural turn in law and economics, homo oeconomicus seems to be transformed into Homer Economicus, and consumer law prone to be Simpsonized. In this paper, the turn from neoclassical law and economics to behavioural law and economics will be analysed from a third, namely sociological perspective: the economic sociology of law. In this framework, it is possible to compare and confront the “old” homo oeconomicus rationalis and the “new” homo oeconomicus behaviouralis with a third model—homo oeconomicus culturalis—which demonstrates the limits of the previous models, not least with regard to explaining the recent financial crisis. While governance by nudges might look, at first sight, as a tempting idea, I will question the normative side of this project and emphasize its possible effects on our legal culture and, thereby, our human condition.     

Population, health and risk factors in a transitional economy

This paper investigates the health status of the population in a transition economy. Against a background of falling living standards compounded by the widening income inequality a deterioration of health status has been outlined. Drawing upon a consumer survey carried out in the capital Bucharest, risk factors are highlighted. Respondents’ age, income, and health motivation are the most significant variables which differentiate between smokers and non-smokers. Respondent’s age and sex are significant factors predicting the physical exercise status. Additionally, respondent’s level of education is a significant predictor of the time spent on physical exercise. The implications of the study for health policy makers are finally discussed.     

Ethics and Law: Guiding the Invisible Hand to Correct Corporate Social Responsibility Externalities

Tokenistic short-term economic success is not good indicia of long-term success. Sustainable business success requires sustained existence in a corporation’s political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental contexts. Far beyond the traditional economic focus, consumers, governments and public interest groups alike increasingly expect the business sector to take on more social and environmental responsibilities. Corporate social responsibility (CSR) is the model in which economic, social and environmental responsibilities are fulfilled simultaneously. However, there is insufficient empirical evidence that demonstrates genuine widespread adoption of CSR in practice, and its underlying reasons. Though research in CSR has been rapidly growing, its commercial reality and implications need to be further improved if it is to inspire corporations to voluntarily adopt CSR. In the literature, Carroll’s four-dimensional (economic, legal, ethical and discretionary) CSR framework offers a theoretical basis for developing an empirically based model to explain why and how profit-motivated managers take up CSR voluntarily. Our study has developed a structural equation model to identify the key factors and their interactions that influence economically motivated managers to take on voluntary CSR, and validate Carroll’s four-dimensional construct. The results support Carroll’s four-dimensional CSR framework, with the exception of the link pertaining to the relationship between economic and discretionary/voluntary responsibility. This characterises the economic reality that financial market-driven economic responsibility does not automatically translate into social responsibility. Nevertheless, the empirical results demonstrate that corporations can be led to engage in more voluntary CSR activities to achieve social good when appropriate legal and ethical controls are in place.     

Three Elements of Stakeholder Legitimacy

This paper focuses attention on the stakeholder attribute of legitimacy. Drawing upon institutional and stakeholder theories, I develop a framework of stakeholder legitimacy based on its three aspects—legitimacy of the stakeholder as an entity, legitimacy of the stakeholder’s claim, and legitimacy of the stakeholder’s behavior. I assume that stakeholder legitimacy is socially constructed by management and that each of its three aspects exists in degree in the manager’s perception. I discuss how these aspects interact and change over time, and propose an agenda for future research on stakeholder legitimacy.     

Globalization: Economic challenges and the political response

Recently, resistance to the—presumed and actual—consequences of globalization in both developed and developing countries has gained momentum. While the arguments raised against globalization often lack economic substance, it will probably only prevail if a broad majority of the population can be convinced that closer worldwide integration does serve their interests. This can hardly be achieved without a convincing strategy for compensating the potential losers of globalization, given that globalization tends to reduce the national states’ leeway for taxation and redistributive measures through social policies.     

Economic impact of a private sector micro-financing scheme in South Dakota

While poverty rates on Native American Indian reservations are triple the US average. Small business incubation programs, available elsewhere in the US, scarcely exist on the Native American Indian Reservations (NAIRs). Our unique study tests the effects of the Lakota Fund (LF), a private sector small business development initiative on the Pine Ridge Reservation in South Dakota, on the economic development of the NAIRs. Our objective is to determine whether the SBA-like programs (loans, training, and consulting) can improve economic conditions. The 1980–2006 annual county-level (Shannon Co. is ‘treatment,’and Todd Co. is ‘control’) data are a natural experiment. Results indicate that the LF inception and duration significantly raised real per capita income (RPCI)—suggesting not only the success of the LF, but support for the broader notion that privately funded small business initiatives can be used to support economic development of isolated impoverished groups within the US economy.     

Developing Policies and Instruments for Sustainable Household Consumption: Irish Experiences and Futures

In recent years, the concept of sustainable consumption (SC) has received increased attention. Overconsumption in industrialized countries still presents major challenges to achieving sustainable development goals despite the global economic crisis. This paper offers an in-depth analysis of national influences on consumption patterns in the Republic of Ireland, focusing in particular on the role of governance in the design of policy instruments for sustainable consumption. It is argued that country-specific political conditions and policy frameworks fundamentally shape everyday household consumption. After an initial discussion of the effectiveness of three key types of policy instruments—legislative, economic, communicative—the paper compares SC policy making and implementation in Ireland with examples of good practice from Europe. An agenda to progress Ireland’s sustainable consumption policy framework is proposed in the concluding part of the paper.     

Sourcing in an Increasingly Expensive China: Four Swedish Cases

China has long enjoyed its position as the world’s cheapest production country. However, this position is being shaken due to the increasingly rising costs in China in pace with China’s rapid economic development. China’s New Labour Contract Law which took effect from 1 January 2008 has further pushed the labour costs in China in general. The purpose of this article is to arrive at an in-depth understanding of why foreign firms conduct sourcing in China where sourcing is becoming increasingly expensive. The experiences of four Swedish companies in the textile and clothing industry (TCI) conducting sourcing in China are presented. Our findings show that sourcing in China is becoming both cost- and strategy-driven. Companies purely chasing the cheapest production would most probably consider leaving China, whereas companies with a long-term strategic intent and a high level of business ethics and corporate social responsibility (CSR) practices will retain all or most of their sourcing activities on the Chinese soil despite the rising costs.     

Does Gibrat’s Law Hold? Evidence from Canadian Retail and Manufacturing Firms

This paper investigates the validity of Gibrat’s Law holding for firms in manufacturing and retail trade sectors. The object is to expand our knowledge of Gibrat’s Law to include non-manufacturing firms. A unique longitudinal firm-level database, which contains information on Canadian incorporated establishments, enables the inter-industry comparison. The findings of the analysis are that Gibrat’s Law is violated in both manufacturing and retail sectors. Violations of Gibrat’s Law for both sectors include (i) growth rates that depend on firm size (ii) growth variability that depends on firm size and (iii) a negative persistence of firm growth. Finally, age effects or selection effects are not the causes of these violations.      

The Propensity To Sue: Why Do People Seek Legal Actions?

Tort costs as a fraction of U.S. GDP have increased over three-fold in the past 50 years, now hovering slightly above two percent. Although there has been much ink spilled blaming the plaintiffs’ bar and so-called hellhole jurisdictions, less has been written about the behavior and attitudes of individual plaintiffs. Using a unique survey from the RAND Corporation, this paper empirically analyzes the perceptual and economic factors that affect the decision of an injured party to seek legal action. We find that, independent of economic incentives, perception of fault is the most important factor in the decision to make a claim. On average, a person who blames another person or firm for his or her injury is four times more likely to claim regardless of the type of injury involved. Unsurprisingly, the severity of injury—either as perceived by the claimant or as measured by actual injury during the accident—is another key factor in explaining the claiming rate. Also, as expected, there is a negative relation between age and claiming behavior. Somewhat unexpectedly, whether the person has had experience with filing before has no independent effect on the decision to claim. JEL Classification K41     

Speculative attack against the Hungarian forint

In mid-January 2003 a severe speculative attack was launched against the exchange rate of the Hungarian forint. The attack was very unusual in the history of foreign exchange speculations, since it was aimed at enforcing the appreciation — and not the depreciation — of the currency targeted. The specific nature of this kind of speculation is closely related to Hungary’s accession to the European Union in general and to EMU in particular. Since the other Central and Eastern European acceding countries face similar problems and challenges, the Hungarian experience may involve some instructive lessons on monetary and economic policy for them too.