Makroökonomische Effekte eines bedingungslosen Grundeinkommens

The introduction of an unconditional universal basic income would change the entire system of income distribution and have far-reaching implications for aggregate labour supply, labour demand and wages. Changes in the labour market would subsequently lead to adjustments in the markets for goods and services, as well as in capital markets. This would impact productivity, prices, income distribution, international competitiveness and economic growth. Furthermore, financing such a policy would affect public finances. This article outlines possible macroeconomic consequences of a universal basic income.     

Productivity growth and cyclical behaviour in service industries: the Spanish case

A longstanding basis of empirical economics is that average labour productivity declines during recessions and increases during booms, and thus behaves procyclically. In the short run, in many countries output growth and productivity tend to move together and across a wide range of industries. In recent years, this observation has gained increased prominence as each proposed explanation for the observed procyclicality has important implications for modelling the business cycle and measuring the technical change. By filtering out the influence of business cycles, it is possible to isolate changes in the long run, or structural rate, of productivity growth and so assess the importance of any source for economic growth. Nevertheless, the focus of these empirical works has been the aggregate economy or manufacturing industries, and not the services sector. The novelty of this paper is the focus on the patterns within the services sector. The aim of this paper is to better understand short-run changes in productivity growth within the service sector industries, which are necessarily different from those existing within the manufacturing sector. Another goal of this research is to assess whether this observed procyclicality remains if the service sector is the scope of analysis, and whether this is homogeneous among the different activities within this miscellaneous sector or not. Empirical evidence for the Spanish economy since 1980 is presented.     

中国宏观经济运行总量指标互动影响的实证研究

本文利用Granger因果关系检验及建立向量误差修正(VEC)模型,从数量上对中国宏观经济运行总量指标之间的相互影响及关系问题进行实证分析,结果表明物价水平、经济增长和固定资产投资之间存在显着的相互影响。从短期看,固定资产投资与经济增长均对物价水平存在着滞后、正向的推动作用。从长期看,当期投资将在未来期内转化为供给,在反方向上促使物价下滑,因而固定资产投资在长期内对物价水平存在着一个显着的反向影响力。而且广义货币供给量通过固定资产投资与经济总产出的传导作用,对物价水平发生影响。     

Conflicting-claims and labour market concerns in a supermultiplier SFC model

We propose to introduce inflation via conflicting-claims, an endogenous labour productivity regime à la Kaldor-Verdoorn and an explicit account for the labour market into an SFC model that combines an endogenous autonomous expenditure component with the induced investment behaviour of firms. The aim of the paper is to analyse the dynamics of real wage and productivity growth and the impacts on the long run growth trend, income shares and the employment rate of: (a) changes in the propensity to consume; (b) changes in the bargaining power of workers; and (c) changes in the labour productivity under different institutional settings.     

全要素生产率、产业结构调整与经济增长——基于空间计量模型的研究

本文基于2000-2016年30个省市间的区域面板数据,借助空间计量方法,在SDM模型下对全要素生产率、产业结构与经济增长这一问题进行实证分析。研究发现,全要素生产率的提升对本省经济增长有促进作用,而对邻近省份无显著影响;产业结构调整即产业结构服务化对本省经济增长无显著影响,而对邻近省份有显著的推动作用。其中,人力资本、城市化水平以及研发投入作为控制变量也对地区经济产生影响:人力资本的积累可以提升本地区经济增长水平,而城市化的推进以及研发投入的增加则能够同时推动本地区及邻近地区的经济增长。     

中国地区间研发资源错配测算与影响因素分析

随着中国的研发投入总量进入世界第一梯队,研发投入(资源)的配置状况成为决定研发产出效率的关键因素之一。本文基于一个包含研发资源价格扭曲的多部门竞争均衡模型,以2001—2016年各省份规模以上工业企业数据为样本,对中国地区间研发资源错配情况及其影响因素进行全面考察。研究发现:(1)各省份之间的研发劳动错配高于研发资本错配,多数省份倾向于过度配置研发资源,省份之间研发资源配置效率总体上呈逐步改善趋势,纠正错配可以使研发产出提升约16%;(2)东部各省份研发资源配置相对较为合理,但研发劳动配置略有不足,中部、西部和东北各省均存在不同程度的研发资源过度配置现象,东部和西部的研发资源配置效率一直在改善,东北和中部则没有表现出持续的改进态势;(3)市场发育程度、偏向性政策扶持、地区创新环境是研发资源错配的主要影响因素,在研发资源过度配置地区,这些因素的作用更为显著。本文的启示是,在当前全面实施创新驱动发展战略的大背景下,政府相关部门在积极引导全社会加大研发投入力度的同时,还应以市场为导向,进一步优化不同地区间的研发资源配置,实现研发效率的提升和经济的高质量发展。     

台湾对大陆产品提高关税的理论模型分析——从要素收入分配扭曲效应出发的研究

台湾如果对大陆产品提高关税会扭曲岛内要素收入分配的格局。本文在一个使用两种生产要素资本和劳动并生产两种商品高技术产品和机制品的一般均衡模型中,考察短期内和长期内上述关税提高会对两种要素的收入产生怎么样的影响。本文的理论分析得出的结论是:就劳动的收入工资来说,短期内两个部门的工资都在提高,但长期内未被保护的高技术产品部门的工资反而会降低;就资本的报酬来说,短期内被保护部门机制品的资本报酬有所提高,而没有被保护部门的资本报酬反而会降低。因此,台湾提高进口关税的这种要素收入分配效应,不利于自己优势产业的发展,ECFA的实施有其经济学理念基础。     

总量生产函数的构建:经济增长理论评析

构建总量生产函数是建立经济增长模型的关键。与经济增长理论的发展相一致,总量生产函数的性质也在发生着巨大的变化,其发展历程可以描述为:从固定技术系数总量生产函数开始,分别经历了新古典总量生产函数、资本收益递增总量生产函数的发展阶段。目前正处于一个资本收益递减但趋向于一个正数的总量生产函数的形成阶段。     

Financial liberalization,openness and convergence

All industrialized nations relied on capital account controls for significant periods of their economic development and relaxations of capital account restrictions thought to be an integral aspect of economic development. Economists long advocated the removal of capital controls as a stabilizing factor of the development process to improve efficiency and return economies from distorted factor prices to production frontiers. Empirically, however, financial liberalizations have become associated with capital flow reversals, where initial capital inflows at the onset are subsequently offset by capital outflows resulting in higher levels of accumulated indebtedness. We investigate how capital flow reversals caused by financial liberalizations affect the speed of convergence of an economy. We show that financial liberalizations reduce short run convergence speeds, implying that open economies should experience significantly less output volatility but also longer transitions. The increased smoothness in response to initial shocks comes at a cost: as foreign borrowing rises to smooth domestic income fluctuations causing an increase in the domestic interest rate OECD data confirms our findings.     

The income inequality,financial depth and economic growth nexus in China

Income inequality has increased in China despite rapid economic growth. Income inequality could impinge on future development, leading to social tension or political instability. Our study investigates the short-run and long-run relationship between three important macroeconomic indicators—income inequality, economic growth and financial depth. We utilise a two-step procedure of ARDL bounds and Granger causality for the analysis. The bounds test indicates the presence of a cointegrating relationship between income inequality, financial depth and economic growth in the long run. In the second step, we utilise the Granger causality approach. Results show a bidirectional causality between financial depth-growth and a unidirectional causality between inequality-growth in the short run. In the long run, results reveal that growth and financial depth determine Gini. Our findings provide support for the inequality-widening effect due to economic growth and higher credit provided to the private sector. We find no evidence of inequality-narrowing or income-equalising effect in the long run for the period of study. It is possible that the government's inclusive growth policies which started less than a decade ago have not taken effect for us to capture the inverted U-shape income equalising effect significantly.     

The Macroeconomic Effects of the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement on Canada: A Counterfactual Analysis

We evaluate the macroeconomic effects of the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on Canada's economy using a counterfactual analysis. We exploit the dependence of GDP growth (labour productivity and unemployment, respectively) among different economic entities and construct the counterfactuals using data from countries other than Canada. We find that in the adjustment period from 1989:Q1 to 1992:Q1, Canada's economy bore the short‐run adjustment costs of the FTA with a decline of the annual real GDP by 2.56 per cent and a decline of the labour productivity by 0.62 per cent. After the adjustment period, the FTA had a positive and permanent effect of 1.86 per cent on Canada's annual real GDP growth and raised the labour productivity from 1992 to 1994 by 2.39 per cent on average. Moreover, the FTA increased Canada's annual unemployment rate by 1.81 per cent in the period 1989–94.     

Are Human and Social Capital Linked? Evidence from India

This paper develops a two‐period Overlapping Generations (OLG) model of endogenous growth in which a two‐way relationship between social capital and human capital is studied. In order to illustrate the impact of public policies, the model is calibrated using the data for a low‐income country, India and a sensitivity analysis is reported under different parameter values. Based on the numerical analysis, this paper focuses on possible trade‐offs in the allocation of government spending between two productive components, that is, social capital‐related activities and education. The results of this paper show that an increase in the share of public spending on social capital‐related activities through a cut in spending on education or vice versa entails trade‐offs. However, the trade‐off fades away and the net impact on long‐run growth turns out to be positive for different parameter values in the case where a higher share of spending on education is financed by a cut in spending on social capital‐related activities but a policy in improving social capital accumulation at the expense of education is always detrimental to long‐run growth.     

Employment Flexibility,Dual Labour Markets,Growth, and Distribution

Many policymakers and economists have argued in favour of greater labour market flexibility as a part of structural adjustment reforms that are expected to improve economic performance. Existing post‐Keynesian‐Kaleckian (PKK) models are unable to address these issues because they assume away long‐term labour by allowing employment to be short term and adjusting freely with output. This paper introduces long‐term labour into PKK models. We develop a model that provides alternative ways of modelling labour market flexibility and suggest that when aggregate demand issues are important, an increase in employment flexibility is likely to have adverse growth and distributional impacts.     

The Complementary Nature Between Technological Progress and Capital Accumulation in India's Long‐Run Growth Transitions

This article develops a multiple‐regime, learning‐by‐doing model, in which technological progress and capital accumulation are complementary factors in long‐run growth transitions. The model accurately predicts India's long‐run growth transitions over the period 1953–2007, with the first phase (1980–2002) being ‘technology’ driven and the second phase (2003–2007) capital accumulation driven. Given the complementary nature between technological progress and capital accumulation, one of the main challenges facing Indian policy makers in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis is to maintain high saving/fixed investment rates. The analysis also provides a critique of the ‘total factor productivity view’ of India's growth performance.     

长三角经济增长方式与外资利用效应研究

本文在揭示长三角两省一市经济增长方式的基础上,剖析了外商直接投资对长三角经济增长方式的影响。本文研究表明:近二十年来,长三角地区全要素生产率有显著提高,但在投资高速增长的背景下,该区域粗放型经济增长的特征并没有根本改变。外商直接投资尽管也会通过技术外溢等途径促进技术进步,但由于其对国内投资的挤入效应推动了资本的扩张,因而尚未对经济增长方式转变形成显著的效果。实现长三角经济增长方式转变应进一步提升本土创新能力和开放水平。     

Productivity differences in an interdependent world

This paper studies cross-country differences in productivity from an open economy perspective by using a Helpman-Krugman-Heckscher-Ohlin model that embraces the single-cone model and a one-sector economy with factor deepening as particular cases. To estimate the model, I combine tools from development accounting and the factor content of trade literature. When simultaneously fitting data on income, factor prices and the factor content of trade, I find that the one-sector model is by far better supported by the data than the single-cone model. Rich countries have far higher productivities of human capital than poor ones, while differences in physical capital productivity are not related to income per worker. Finally, I estimate an aggregate elasticity of substitution between human and physical capital that is significantly below one.     

Is FDI Integrating the World Economy?

FDI's spectacular growth, in diverse forms, during the past two decades represented an important force generating greater economic integration. FDI increased substantially in relation to global productive capacity, cross border mergers and acquisitions component of FDI put domestic corporate laggards on notice, and the spread of FDI to non‐tradable service sectors generated the possibility that these traditionally low productivity sectors would be brought closer to the standards of international efficiency. Yet, FDI did not perform an integrating role in a more fundamental sense. There is little evidence that FDI served to speed up income convergence across countries. This was the case for two reasons. First, FDI flows remained highly concentrated. Second, the benefits from FDI appear to have accrued principally where conditions were already conducive to investment and growth. Hence, though cross‐country disciplines through bilateral, regional and multilateral efforts are important in reducing the distortions that lead to misallocation of capital, domestic efforts to raise absorptive capacity will ultimately be critical. Efforts to increase labour mobility, as foreseen, for example, under GATS, could have a significant effect in raising the benefits from FDI as the more mobile labour serves to bridge the cultural, institutional and contractual differences across nations.     

合理财政投入于养老基金的优化模型探讨

对养老基金的政府财政投入会影响短期和长期的社会福利。首先是确定合理财政投入的两个准则,在描述基金收支核心机制后刻画了财政投入对经济发展的负面影响,在此基础上建立了合理财政投入的目标约束模型,在理论上做出探索。     

Welche Wachstumspotenziale lassen sich über das Arbeitsangebot erschließen?

Demographic change will lead to a shrinking and ageing population in Germany, resulting in a decrease in the labour force. The fundamental trend can be counteracted through net immigration and behavioural effects such as increasing labour market participation of females in the short and medium run, but is unlikely to be reversed in the long run. This paper shows that the average age of the labour force follows a linear trend since the late 1990s. Moreover, there has been a convergence of average age between male and female workers. In a long run perspective the age distribution has become less heterogeneous, as measured by the coefficient of variation. At the same time, the average length of schooling and training has increased significantly over the last 40 years, but at a slower pace in recent years. We discuss the consequences of these changes for economic growth.     

内生经济增长理论与财政政策的一般性研究

内生增长理论是现代经济增长理论中的一个核心内容。从长期经济增长所依赖的路径来看,人力资本和技术进步作为经济增长的内生因素,可以弥补因其他要素收益递减而带来经济增长停滞这一局面。如果经济增长率是由内生因素决定的,那么财政政策对经济增长的影响将再次成为人们关注的焦点。在国家财政政策干预下,以内生增长为动力,逐步形成有利于经济增长的物质资本投资向人力资本和技术进步等方面投资的转换机制。