A nodal approach for estimating potential cycling demand

Establishing cycling as a prominent utility mode is recognised as central to creating sustainable transport systems in many cities around the world. Strategies of starter cycling cities are often biased to the supply of infrastructure along prominent corridors without acknowledging the nature, quantum or location of potential demand for cycling. Decisions are frequently left to local knowledge and experience of local needs, resulting in a bias with little opportunity for repeatability or reproducibility. This study proposes a data-driven approach to estimate the potential market for cycling geographically. Estimates are based on the number of potential cyclists in close proximity to the destinations they want to access. The paper demonstrates the method using Cape Town, South Africa as a case study. Given the virtual absence of utility cycling in the city, characteristics of cyclists in cities where cycling is popular are used to identify potential cyclists. Destination nodes are stratified in terms of the characteristics of their users, while home locations of persons with these characteristics are identified from a publicly available synthetic population for Cape Town. Analysis provides an order of magnitude indication of the cycling potential of selected nodes. It also shows areas with many potential cyclists that are not in proximity of desired destination. The results enable city authorities to focus detailed investigations and interventions where a critical mass of cycling may be achieved with the least effort and in the shortest time.     

The planned and the perceived city: A comparison of cyclists' and decision-makers' views on cycling quality

IntroductionTraffic jams, congestion and pollution demand sustainable modes of transport. To increase the appeal of cycling, bicycle-users' perceptions and needs should be acknowledged by decision-makers. However, traditional transport planning mainly focuses on quantitative, infrastructural data. To address this gap, this study explores to what extent decision-makers are aware of cyclists' needs and perceptions. Furthermore, the study compares the assessments about cycling of decision-makers and cyclists in the city of Leipzig, Germany.MethodsQualitative Interviews with 13 cyclists and similarly structured interviews with 6 experts from politics and planning were compared using qualitative content analysis. Two main topics were examined: (1) the reasons for cycling and (2) the perceived environment (built, natural and individually perceived). To integrate the spatial context, the interviewees draw sketch maps which were analyzed and compared using geo-information systems.ResultsExperts assume that main roads with cycling infrastructure are decisive for fast and safe cycling and cyclists agree with this statement. However, cyclists further refer to the positive effects of green spaces, the experience of the natural environment (e.g. fresh air) as well as the healthy and recreational effect of cycling. Cyclists prefer taking side roads and are prepared to use detours to integrate the natural environment and avoid traffic jams, noise and air pollution – these aspects were rarely acknowledged by decision-makers.DiscussionWe conclude that urban planners need to involve cyclists' perceptions more explicitly. Integrating cyclists' experiences in planning processes using sketch maps and interviews are beneficial, complementing quantitative approaches to enhance the understanding of cyclist behavior. The findings are essential to stress the importance of participatory approaches in urban planning to promote a sustainable, healthy and environmentally friendly urban development appropriate to citizens' needs.     

Geographic heterogeneity in cycling under various weather conditions: evidence from Greater Rotterdam

With its sustainability, health and accessibility benefits, cycling has nowadays been established on research and policy agendas. Notwithstanding the decision to cycle is closely related to local weather conditions and interwoven with the geographical context, research dealing with both aspects is scarce. On the basis of travel diary data, we assess the association of three weather conditions, namely air temperature, wind speed, and precipitation, on cycling trips for leisure and commute purposes for the Greater Rotterdam area, the Netherlands. Besides region-wide logit models and autologistic regressions, place-specific associations of weather conditions are explored through geographically weighted logit models. Considering the entire Rotterdam area, results confirm significant weather effects on cycling while highlighting the necessity to model the residents’ locational component. When the confounding effects of individual and household characteristics are controlled, a key finding is that weather effects appear to vary across space, specifically between the more densely settled central environments and the surrounding lower-density areas. Additionally, the results show differences between leisure and commute trips, in which leisure trips appear to be more weather sensitive and show more pronounced spatial patterns.     

The implications of environmental costs on air passenger demand for different airline business models

Various environmental measures, including both regulations and fiscal instruments, have been used at airports globally to reduce the impacts of aircraft noise as well as aircraft engine emissions. Internationally, it is recognized that the costs of environmental and social externalities of air transport must be internalized and paid for by the aviation industry and its users. The use of noise related charges or taxes, which theoretically should be based on their respective social costs, has been proved to be effective at some European airports. This research aims to investigate the impacts of environmental costs, through environmental charges, on air passenger demand for different airline business models. The paper presents the mathematical models measuring the social costs of aircraft noise and engine emissions as a basis for setting up environmental charges. Six intra-European short-haul routes in two city pairs, namely London–Amsterdam and London–Paris, are selected for the empirical analysis. The environmental charges are then hypothetically applied to airlines with two different business models, full service carriers (British Airways and Air France-KLM) and low cost airlines (EasyJet). The results show that the potential percentages of demand reduction for both leisure and business passengers would be higher for Easyjet's markets, although with less environmental cost per passenger.     

Taking another look at cycling demand modeling: A comparison between two cities in Canada and New Zealand

Cities around the world are investing in their cycle network as a way to reduce traffic congestions and improve population health. For effective infrastructure investment decision-making, it is critical to understand the factors affecting cycling demand. This study investigates the combined effects of spatial and temporal factors on the demand of cycling in Auckland, New Zealand and Kelowna, Canada. A latent segmentation-based negative binomial (LSNB) model is developed utilizing daily cycling counts over a year from Auckland and Kelowna. The LSNB model captures unobserved heterogeneity based on the temporal attributes, and land use and neighborhood characteristics of the cycling facilities. The models confirm the influence of weather, bicycle facility type, built environment, traffic, land use, and accessibility attributes. The model results suggest that higher temperature, lower rainfall, increased length of shared paths, lower AADT, and closer distance to bus stop are likely to increase cycling demand in Auckland. The model also confirms heterogeneity. For example, road-connectivity index and bike index vary across the urban and suburban areas of Auckland. For Kelowna, higher temperature, lower rainfall, lower snowfall, and closer distance to water bodies are likely to increase cycling demand. In the case of heterogeneity, the effects of road-connectivity index, bike index, and AADT varies over the urban and suburban areas of Kelowna. Analysis suggests that increasing bike index is one of the critical factors to increase cycling demand in the suburban areas of Auckland and Kelowna.     

Perspectives and images of cycling as a barrier or facilitator of cycling

The public images of cycling can act as barriers or facilitators of cycling. This qualitative study explored images and perceptions of cycling, their potential influence on cycling and whether these views differed between regular, occasional and non-riders.Seventy participants (24 males and 46 females) were recruited. Of these, 22 were classified as non-riders, 23 were occasional riders and 25 were regular riders. Twelve focus groups were held in inner Sydney during October and November 2005. Data were audio taped, transcribed and thematically analysed.Themes linked to images of cycling included: ‘clean and green’; ‘healthy and fun’; ‘dangerous’ and ‘serious business’. Themes linked to images of cyclists included: ‘risk takers and law breakers’ and ‘status and sub-cultures’. Discussion centred on the low social status of riding over other transport modes, the relative acceptability of different riding sub-cultures, the ‘green’ image of cycling transport and the status associated with the riders clothing and bicycle choice, especially lycra and its ‘serious and sporty’ connotation.While ‘cycling’ was generally viewed as a positive, environmentally friendly activity, the actions of some ‘cyclists’ were disliked, which influenced views about cycling, particularly among non-riders. A cycling acceptability hierarchy emerged; with recreational riding at the top, followed by cycling for sport and exercise, with transport/commuter cycling towards the bottom. Bicycle couriers were viewed least favourably. A common perception among non-riders was the latter two groups were rule breakers and risk takers, while regular riders felt unfairly judged by this stereotype.While there was greater acceptance of recreational riding, riding for transport was not viewed as a mainstream activity. There is a need to improve the public acceptability of cycling and change public norms so it is seen as an everyday activity that can be undertaken by almost anyone, without the need for special clothing, expensive equipment or limited to purpose built facilities.     

Exploring social-ecological influences on commuter cycling in a midsize northern city: A qualitative study in Thunder Bay,Canada

Cycling is a healthy, affordable, and sustainable mode of transportation which offers myriad co-benefits to individuals and society at large. Despite these benefits, cycling remains underutilized as a mode of transportation, particularly in midsize cities and northern climates across North America. The specific objectives of this study were to: (1) explore the lived experiences and social-ecological determinants of utilitarian cycling in the context of a midsize city located in a northern climate, and (2) examine differences in social-ecological influences on utilitarian cycling between cyclists with and without access to a vehicle for transportation. Thirty cyclists over 18 years of age participated in semi-structured interviews. Data collected during the interviews were analysed using thematic analysis to describe the lived experiences of utilitarian cycling and to identify social-ecological determinants of utilitarian cycling. Fourteen key themes emerged from the data, confirming previous research illustrating that utilitarian cycling experiences, practices, and behaviours are determined by a plurality of interacting individual, social and cultural, regulatory and policy, and environmental factors. Across the study sample, differences in the experiences those of cyclists with and without access to a vehicle for transportation were identified across all levels of the social-ecological model. Drawing on our findings, we discuss three key lessons that highlight opportunities for promoting cycling as a mode of transportation in midsize and northern cities in North America in particular. These lessons include: 1) recognizing and addressing the influence of car culture; 2) shifting focus towards utilitarian cycling, and 3) identifying opportunities for addressing winter-related barriers. By drawing on the lived experiences of utilitarian cyclists, this research provides important directives for future policy-making, programming, and infrastructure development for the purposes of promoting cycling as a mode of transportation in other midsize cities in similar environments.     

Evaluation of land-use and transport network effects on cyclists' route choices in the Copenhagen Region in value-of-distance space

Growing interest in sustainable transportation systems has driven decision-makers toward policies and investments aimed at promoting cycling, but little to no effort has been made toward incorporating bicycle transport in transport planning models. This study contributes toward this direction by estimating a bicycle route choice model in value-of-distance space from a large sample of 3384 cycling trips that were traced with GPS devices in the Copenhagen Region. The novelty of this study lies in (i) observing cyclists' behavior in a cycling-oriented country, (ii) exploiting rich data about the cycling environment, (iii) estimating the model in value-of-distance rather than preference space, and (iv) not focusing only on preferences for traditional variables (e.g., distance, turns, hilliness, intersections, motorized road characteristics), but also on perceptions and preferences for bicycle facilities (e.g., bicycle lanes, bicycle paths, bicycle traces) and land-use designations (e.g., residential, industrial, sports, scenic areas). The findings from the model show that: (i) cyclists exhibit heterogeneous preferences for avoiding right and left turns, cycling the wrong way, using roundabouts and bridges, and cycling alongside residential and scenic areas; (ii) cyclists dislike cycling on unpaved and hilly surfaces and alongside larger roads; (iii) cyclists have clear perceptions about different types of bicycle facilities, with a preference for bicycle lanes and segregated paths; (iv) cyclists have clear perceptions about land-use designations, with a preference for cycling alongside sports and scenic areas; (v) time-of-day and air temperature contribute to the perceptions of cyclists and their preferences for bicycle facilities and land-use designations.     

Attitudes,norms and difficulties underlying road sharing intentions as drivers and cyclists: Evidence from the Czech Republic

Cycling-inclusive urban planning is attracting attention worldwide because of the environmental, health, economic, and transport benefits inherent to cycling from the individual and the societal perspectives. The Czech Republic is one of the emerging cycling countries that are trying to promote and support cycling, but cycling mode shares are low because of the poor quality of the scarce infrastructure and the psychological barrier of the perceived lack of safety when cycling in mixed traffic. This study takes a multimodal approach based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour and focuses on the factors underlying the willingness to share the road from the perspective of cyclists and drivers: positive attitudes toward cycling, positive attitudes toward cyclists’ behavior, social norms toward cycling and anxiety to share the road. A web-based questionnaire was tailor-designed and administered in the Czech Republic via social networks, web forums, and the Civinet network, and a hybrid bivariate-ordered model tested the behavioral framework. Results show that the willingness to share the road as a cyclist or as a driver relates positively to positive attitudes towards cycling and cyclists’ behavior, and negatively to the anxiety of sharing the road. Moreover, mediator effects are observed and a clear relation emerges between the experience on the road as both a cyclist and a driver on the willingness to share the road as a cyclist. Lastly, results show that the factors underlying road sharing intentions are related significantly to gender, travel habits, and perceived personal and infrastructure-related barriers to cycling.     

Predicting demand for air taxi urban aviation services using machine learning algorithms

This research focuses on predicting the demand for air taxi urban air mobility (UAM) services during different times of the day in various geographic regions of New York City using machine learning algorithms (MLAs). Several ride-related factors (such as month of the year, day of the week and time of the day) and weather-related variables (such as temperature, weather conditions and visibility) are used as predictors for four popular MLAs, namely, logistic regression, artificial neural networks, random forests, and gradient boosting. Experimental results suggest gradient boosting to consistently provide higher prediction performance. Specific locations, certain time periods and weekdays consistently emerged as critical predictors.     

Air passenger demand and skilled labor markets by US metropolitan area

This paper examines the relationships that exist between skilled labor markets and air transportation by US metropolitan area. The goal is to enhance the current literature by conducting a more specific investigation of the links that exist between air passenger demand and employment levels within metropolitan economies focusing especially on employment patterns and the number of establishments for both the professional, scientific, and technical (PST) services sector and the high-technology sector. The results suggest that employment opportunities and the number of establishments in both sectors are systematically linked to the geography of air passenger demand.     

Constructing the cycling citizen: A critical analysis of policy imagery in Brisbane,Australia

Cycling is often promoted as a low cost, accessible and virtuous strategy for solving many urban problems, including air pollution, congestion, climate change and the ‘obesity epidemic’. Yet the status of cycling as a quick and easy transport solution available to all is rarely problematised in policy documents. Focussing on cycling policy documents in sub-tropical Brisbane (Australia) we apply interpretive policy analysis to identify the ways policy representations of cycling and cyclists may work to exacerbate the marginality of certain groups by excluding them from representation. Through analysis of these policy documents, and reference to international research on cycling and the right to the city, this article sketches out the figure of the ‘Cycling Citizen’ constructed within them. The Cycling Citizen is characterised in these policy documents by a combination of actions (such as demonstrations of speed and skill), personal attributes (such as body-type, clothes and gender) and attitudes (particularly around virtue). We argue that the dominance of representations of MAMIL (middle-aged men in lycra) cyclists in the policy documents analysed may work to make cycling less accessible to those less likely to identify as MAMIL such as women, people of colour, people with lower incomes, and fat people, and this may effectively exclude them from cycling policy decisions, and negatively shape personal choices about cycling. We further argue that policy representations of cycling and cyclists matter because they have the potential to influence infrastructure and funding decisions which may have material consequences with respect to cycling mode share, equity and safety.     

Evaluating the demand for new cycle facilities

There are many studies which report attitudes to cycling and factors affecting the propensity to cycle but very few which evaluate the detailed costs and benefits of new cycle facilities. As part of a review of cycle facility provision in Bradford, West Yorkshire, a large scale survey of current and potential cyclists was conducted in 1994. A stated preference survey design was used to estimate the value placed on the different attributes of four alternative cycle routes under consideration. The results found that safety is more highly valued than time and that some new cycle schemes can be economically justified on the basis of benefits to current cyclists, even in circumstances of relatively low cycle use. The findings are important in the context of the current promotion of cycle facilities and highlights the need for further research and monitoring.     

A spatial analysis of demand patterns on a bicycle sharing scheme: Evidence from London

This paper investigates the spatial demand for bikesharing through the application of a series of trip generation models for the London Bicycle Sharing Scheme (LBSS). The production of trips from and the arrival of trips at scheme stations are evaluated in reference to how they connect with features of the built environment, demographics of the resident and workplace populations, and attributes of the scheme's structure. A spatial econometrics approach is taken to specify the models, with four different time windows considered throughout the day for all trips taken during 2016. The built environment features show a consistent pattern of results in the model, indicating that proximity to cycling infrastructure, rail stations, parks, university facilities, as well as the density of shops and conventional roads in the vicinity of stations is linked with trip generation rates. The presence of males and Caucasians are associated with higher station demand, aligning with other work on the introduction of new mobility solutions elsewhere, though we do find that greater distances to work tend to depress use. Trip generation is also reduced at the minority of stations located south of the River Thames, indicating that the presence of natural barriers can affect the operation of schemes. The results carry implications for scheme integration in other cities.     

Perceptions of cycling among high school students and their parents

Cycling is a healthy, low-cost, and low-carbon alternative to motorized transport. As a relatively fast active mode of transport, cycling can overcome the distance barrier of walking, while also providing cardiovascular exercise and reducing demand for motor vehicle travel. The “cycling renaissance” has seen an increase in the number of cyclists in urban spaces, and there is evidence of increased investment in cycling infrastructure and cycle skills training in some places. Yet the number of high school students cycling to school is declining in many industrialized countries. Transport to school is a major contributor to daily traffic congestion, resulting in both local and global environmental concerns, and high school students have been relatively overlooked in research to date. In this paper, we present empirical material from a qualitative study of high school students and parents in Dunedin, Aotearoa New Zealand. Focus group sessions were conducted during 2014 and 2015 with students and parents separately, to explore their perceptions of modes of transport and transport to school decision making. Key findings relate to perceived safety, implicit messages, and social norms. We find that a complex range of factors contribute to perceptions of cycling safety, including features and perceptions of the built environment, traffic safety (including behaviors of other road users), previous cycling experiences (including accidents), and adolescents' cycling skills and on-road experiences. Overcoming concerns through behavioral and cultural interventions coupled with upskilling and thoughtful infrastructure may present a pathway to increasing rates of cycling.     

What about people in cycle network planning? applying participative multicriteria GIS analysis in the case of the Athens metropolitan cycle network

The bicycle is gaining ground as an inexpensive, fast, healthy, and enjoyable mode of transport, but the development of cycle infrastructures appears to be a necessary prerequisite for supporting further growth in cycling rates. Thus far, few studies have developed comprehensive methodologies for the prioritisation of cycling infrastructure investments, and the role of end users has been underestimated in this process. The unique relationship that cyclists develop with the bicycle itself, their co-cyclists, bicycle facilities, and the urban environment as a result of sensory, kinaesthetic, symbolic, or even political reasons can assist in designing cycle facilities that are more efficient and closer to fulfilling the needs and desires of users. We propose a comprehensive four-step methodology for cycle network planning, which both accounts for the city structure and the zones in which higher cycling demand is possible and uses participative multicriteria GIS processes to incorporate cyclists’ views with regard to choosing the cycle network segments. Our case study is Athens, Greece, where cycling facilities are few and heavily fragmented, although cycling demand has recently grown. This methodology may be useful for cities attempting to introduce and prioritise cycling infrastructures because it focuses on determining where cyclists would prefer to cycle to make such investments more successful in attracting users.     

Spatial and temporal analysis of shared bicycle use in Limassol,Cyprus

Cities around the world are moving away from the car-centric infrastructure, urban design and planning policies prevalent since the 1950s and promoting sustainable mobility as an alternative, including cycling. As such, Bicycle Sharing Systems (BSS) have emerged as a transport innovation across the globe. Cycling modal share however remains low in most Southern European island cities. These cities exhibit certain characteristics considered as barriers to cycling, such as hot summers and high humidity, hilliness, and car-oriented culture and infrastructure. Despite this, BSS and policies promoting cycling have emerged in this region as well. These have the potential to provide alternatives for those marginalized by car-based mobility and to reduce traffic related diseases and injuries, noise and air pollution, which can contribute to an improved quality of life for all citizens. Using the Mediterranean island city of Limassol (Cyprus) as a case study, the utilization of bicycle sharing is investigated by constructing regression models to assess the influence of spatial and temporal factors on the demand for BSS use at stations. From the regression models it appears that land use factors such as residential, commercial and park land use, as well as the presence of the beach and cycling paths positively influences frequency of use, as does higher network connectivity. While higher tourist arrivals have a positive effect, the presence of hotels in a 300 m buffer around the stations does not. Higher rainfall, as well as higher temperatures, are associated with a decrease in BSS use. Explicitly incorporating spatial dependence, in Spatial Auto-Regressive (SAR) models, led to the formulation of models with comparable or better explanatory power, when compared to the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models. The insights from the regression models can be used to inform policies promoting cycling and the design and planning of BSS (expansion) in Limassol and other cities.     

The demand for US air transport service: a chaos and nonlinearity investigation

This paper examines the behavior of the US airline industry's service demand. Monthly aggregate data for the industry are analyzed. While we find strong evidence of nonlinear dependence in the air transport service time series, the evidence is not consistent with chaos. We also show that GARCH models successfully explain the nonlinear structures in the US airline industry's service series. Finally, within-sample forecasts of air transport demand from the GARCH models outperform those of simple autoregressive models.     

Using spatial network analysis to model pedal cycle flows,risk and mode choice

Spatial network analysis (SpNA) provides a promising alternative to traditional transport models for the modelling of active travel, because walking and cycling behaviour is influenced by features smaller than the scale of zones in a traditional model. There is currently a need for link-level, city wide modelling of cycling, both to ensure the needs of existing cyclists are catered for in planning, and to model the effects of changing infrastructure in shaping cyclist behaviour. Existing SpNA models treat cyclists and car drivers as if they make navigational decisions in a similar way, which in reality is not the case.This paper presents an SpNA model using hybrid betweenness, which fits cyclist flows in Cardiff, Wales using distance, angular distance, motor vehicle traffic and slope as predictors of route choice. SpNA betweenness is also shown to implicitly capture the effect of urban density on mode choice. As it handles route finding decisions of drivers and cyclists separately, the model presented is also applicable to road safety models examining the interaction between the two classes of road user. The model has low cost of data collection and is reproducible using publicly available network analysis software and open mapping data. Further avenues for modelling the effect of infrastructure on cycling are discussed.