Have the major forces driving leisure airline traffic changed?

Here, we examine the major forces that are driving leisure airline traffic to assess whether these have changed in recent years. Initially this is undertaken by considering global patterns of airline and tourism demand and then by a more detailed investigation of the UK situation. The research indicates that airline demand is becoming less sensitive to income changes and also that the share of income spent on air travel is not showing much growth. Both of these suggest that airline demand may be becoming more mature, with growth being increasingly driven by price reductions rather than income changes. Moreover, evidence from the UK shows that changing customer preferences, and subsequent industry developments to accommodate these, appear to be having a significant impact on the demand for different types of leisure air trips.     

Informality and accessibility to jobs by public transit: Evidence from the São Paulo Metropolitan Region

Access to opportunities through public transport can have different impacts on individual's life especially in developing countries where opportunities are limited, job informality rates are high, and socioeconomic characteristics gaps are big. The aim of this paper is to explore the relationship between job informality and accessibility to employment by public transport in São Paulo Metropolitan Region (SPMR), Brazil. To do so, we calculate a cumulative-opportunity measure of accessibility to jobs for 633 areas within the SPMR. We use a multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression model to estimate the effect of job accessibility on the likelihood of being informally employed, controlling for individual and other area characteristics. To account for informal sector heterogeneity, two regression models are generated: one for the workers earning below minimum wage and one for the workers earning above minimum wage. The results show that accessibility to jobs is unevenly distributed across the region, largely concentrated in the core of the region, and especially in the high-income areas. The regression results show that for workers earning less than the minimum wage, a higher level of accessibility to jobs by public transport is associated with a lower likelihood of being a worker in the informal job sector. For informal workers earning more than the minimum wage, car ownership seem to be more relevant than transit accessibility in determining the likelihood of being part of the informal job sector. In light of these findings, increasing accessibility by public transport through either expanding transit services to areas with high informality rates to have a better access to formal jobs or supporting the decentralization of formal jobs may be a way to achieve reductions in informality rates, especially among those earning less than the minimum wage.     

Development of air pollutant emission factors under real-world truck driving cycle

The truck driving cycle was developed in Thailand using actual speed-time profile from trucks in suburban area. Driving data were separated into micro trips and the representative driving cycle was selected by matching micro trips statistics and target statistics. The Performance Value (PV) was considered for selecting the representative driving cycle. This selected driving cycle was then used as input data for estimating emission factors of 4 air pollutants and 3 greenhouse gases by the International Vehicle Emission (IVE) model. Results were then compared with emission factors developed using the European Transient Cycle (ETC). Additionally, a comparison was made between emission factors calculated in this study and direct measurements of emissions from truck driven on chassis dynamometer under the European driving cycle. Comparison results revealed that CO, NO_x and CO₂ emission factor were about 2.05, 2.24 and 1.78 times lower than those obtained from direct measurements. PM emission factor was about 0.89 times higher than measured data. This study confirms the need to considered actual fleets and characteristics of vehicular sources when calculating their emission rates for further use in development of emission inventory.     

Quality practices and their influence on customer results: an empirical study

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between the critical factors of quality and customer results in the rural accommodation sector. An extensive review of the academic literature allows us to propose a theoretical model that explains this relationship, together with the hypotheses to be validated by the technique of structural equation modelling. Empirical data were collected from 100 rural accommodation establishments in Spain certified with the Quality Management System. The results show a direct, significant and positive relationship between employee management and process management with customer results. Knowing the structure of relationships between the critical factors of quality and customer results provides managers of rural accommodation establishments with information about which factors they should focus their efforts on when their goal is to improve the results in their clients. The relationship between the critical factors of quality and customers results has not been analysed in the rural accommodation sector, an essential component of rural tourism, which in recent years is consolidating as a major tourist destination.     

Building a barrier-to-imitation strategy model in the travel agency industry

This study explores travel agency industry-specific barriers to imitation by first reviewing the literature on the barriers to imitation and the effects of barrier reductions on travel markets. This is the first attempt to explore and identify the external and internal barriers to imitation in the travel agency industry. It is also the first to examine the development of competitive advantages through the building of a barrier-to-imitation strategy, which is the conceptual model from the perspective of travel agency practitioners. A three-round Delphi research design was adopted to look into the present barrier-to-imitation strategy performance measures of travel agencies. Qualitative interviews with the chief executive officers of the top 15 large-scale travel agencies provided additional insights. The results show that Taiwanese travel agencies consider five external barriers, six internal barriers, and six developing barriers-to-imitation advantages, and four performance indicators of barrier strategies. This study is quite innovative in that no one else so far has analysed or tried to discern the issues of barriers to imitation, towards proposing an optimal strategic model for enforcing barriers to imitation. Finally, the construct of developing competitive advantages by building a barrier strategies model for travel agencies can help address practical and theoretical needs.     

Commuting patterns and bicycle level of traffic stress (LTS): Insights from spatially aggregated data in Franklin County,Ohio

This study analyzes the relationships between bicycle network design and commute mode shares in Franklin County, Ohio. We first adopt the bicycle level of traffic stress (LTS) criteria to measure bicycle network design. Then, we develop a fractional multinomial logit model to simultaneously estimate the determinants of the shares of commuters who regularly go to work by carpooling, riding public transit, bicycling, and walking. The analytical results show that increasing the proportion of low-stress road segments (LTS 2) is statistically significant and positively associated with the share of bicycle commuters at the census block group level. However, we do not observe a significant relationship between the proportion of very low-stress road segments (LTS 1) and the share of bicycle commuters. This study suggests that social and cultural relevant factors are more important predictors of reductions in automobile use as compared to those factors representing road conditions.     

Validating delay constructs: An application of confirmatory factor analysis

This paper proposes to use confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to evaluate the relationship between six observed variables (arrival and departure counts, arrival and departure demand, taxi-out and airborne delays) and their underlying latent (unobserved) constructs (operations, demand, and delays) at six of the most delayed airports (EWR, JFK, LGA, MIA, ORD, and SFO) during the calendar years of 2006–2008. The CFA revealed a good fit between the six observed variables and the three factors that may explain on-time performance except in the case of JFK. The use of CFA can help analysts validate constructs when theory supports a priori predictions and relationships between observed and unobserved variables.     

Airline alliances—who benefits?

The advent of global airline alliances in the 1980s gave rise to concerns that increased monopoly power of major carriers would lead to large and sustained producer surpluses. These global alliances now enjoy dominant market shares in the industry. This review examines some 15 years of alliance experience and finds no conclusive evidence that alliance membership has yielded monopoly profits to the airlines. Improvements in terms of load factors and general productivity levels have, for the most part, been accompanied by fare reductions of similar magnitude, resulting in only modest gains to the carriers.     

Commute mode diversity and public health: A multivariate analysis of 148 US cities

Urban sprawl has a negative relationship with regional health outcomes, such as high obesity and chronic diseases related to physical inactivity. At the same time, literature has shown that walkable built environments are connected to lower obesity rates and increased physical activity. Less understood is the association of modal diversity with those health outcomes. This research studies a range of public health outcomes to determine their associations with commute mode diversity. Researchers adapted the methodology of urban sociologists Harvey Molotch and Richard Appelbaum to explore twelve different health measures in 148 US counties and their metropolitan statistical areas. The test measure is the percentage of commuters who use some means other than a single-occupant vehicle (SOV). The percentage of such commuters ranges from as low as 11% in Houston County, Alabama to as high as 36% in Honolulu County, Hawaii. Using bivariate and multivariate analyses, we found better health outcomes in counties and metropolitan areas that have fewer workers commuting by SOV. These findings underscore the positive impact of sustainable transportation policies on community health and open up a new direction for public health research and the built environment.     

The barge and rail freight market for export-bound grain movement from midwest to Mexican Gulf: an econometric analysis

An econometric model of the barge and rail freight market is developed so that factors which influence barge and rail rates for export-bound grain from Midwest to Mexican Gulf can be better understood. Three-stage least squares method is used to estimate the system of four equations that constitute the model. A number of identified factors turned out to be significant in determining grains rail and barge transportation rates. Given the interactive nature of supply and demand processes it is difficult to pinpoint a single most important factor. Yet it is clear that a substitute nature of the two transportation modes in addition to direct price-quantity relationship determine most of the transportation rates.     

Cost convergence in the US airline industry: An analysis of unit costs 1995–2006

Recent changes in the strategies of US airlines have led to a convergence of unit costs between the network legacy carriers and low-cost carriers. We develop a methodology for breaking down operating cost data reported by the airlines and argue that certain cost categories must be excluded to make a valid comparison between the carrier groups. We find significant evidence of convergence in unit costs excluding fuel and transport-related expenses, and labor unit costs in particular. While network legacy carriers have improved cost efficiency through dramatic labor cost reductions and longer stage length flying, low-cost carriers labor unit costs continue to increase as these former new entrant airlines mature.     

The cell phone effect on motor vehicle fatality rates: A Bayesian and classical econometric evaluation

This paper examines the potential effect of cell phones on motor vehicle fatality rates normalized for other driving related and socioeconomic factors. The model used is non-linear so as to address both life-taking and life-saving attributes of cell phones. The model is evaluated using classical methods along with Bayesian Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA). The use of both classical and Bayesian methods diminishes the model and parameter uncertainties which afflict more conventional modeling methods which rely on only one of the two methods. The results indicate the presence of both life-taking and life-saving attributes of cell phones on motor vehicle fatality rates depending on the volume of cell phone subscribers in existence.     

Tourism‐led Growth Revisited for Spain: Causality,Business Cycles and Structural Breaks

This paper is aimed to test the causality relationship between the cycles of tourism and economic development for the case of Spain using quarterly time‐series data on gross domestic product, the number of nights spent in Spanish tourist accommodations and real exchange rates from 1980 to 2013. A distinction between nights spent by foreign and national tourists is also made. Although no evidence of causality is found on preliminary results, structural breaks affecting the relationships between the variables are detected. Causality from economic growth towards tourist activity is found until 1985. Results also confirm bidirectional causality from 2000 onwards. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Light-duty electric vehicles in the gulf? Techno-economic assessment and policy implications

We investigate the economic and technological potential for adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs) in Abu Dhabi through a parametric assessment, a public attitude survey, and a diffusion model. Abu Dhabi, similar to fossil-fuel-rich countries in its region, features a car-dependent society and energy subsidies while being situated in hot, desert environment challenging to EVs. We compare conventional vehicles and EVs in the region accounting for the higher use of air-conditioning (AC) in the actual climatic and driving pattern conditions of Abu Dhabi developing an EV AC consumption penalty model. Average annual AC penalty in fuel consumption over normal testing conditions is 16% for conventional vehicles and 25% for EVs based on hourly weather and vehicle utilization patterns. For 250 days per year, the expected EV range is higher than 75% of the nominal value. During the five hottest days of the recorded year, it can drop to 60% but still covering the average daily driving of the majority of users with a single charge with a 25kWh battery. With partial subsidies offered for both fuel and electricity, EV adoption impacts the state in terms of opportunity costs for these fuels in addition to environmental externalities. We calculate the state and user benefits in a parametric analysis dependent on driving distance and battery costs. If the battery cost is $325/kWh, direct and internalized benefits and costs are balanced when the EV is driven 60 km/day. A diffusion scenario of 5% by 2030 results in cumulative net savings of 6.4 million barrels of oil, a reduction of 517.000 tonnes of CO₂, and a cumulative net benefit of $127 million.     

The safe mobility of older drivers: a challenge for urban road designers

For many older adults in most of the Western world, continued mobility (with associated health, well-being, independence and quality of life) means access to a private vehicle, either as a driver or as a passenger. However older driver serious injury and fatality rates per distance travelled are higher than middle-aged drivers, and crash and injury rates are likely to increase in the coming decades as a result of the ageing population, increased car ownership and overall travel amongst older people. Evidence suggests that contributory factors to this high risk are (for most) frailty, (for some) the high proportion of driving in urban areas, and (for a few) reduced fitness to drive as a result of medical conditions and associated functional limitations. Australasia has recently adopted the ‘Safe System’ approach which aims to manage vehicles, the road infrastructure, speeds, and the interactions between these components, to ensure that when crashes do occur, crash energies will remain at levels that minimize the probability of death and serious injury. A system which aspires to achieving Safe System objectives cannot ignore the challenges that older road users pose – and will pose – to the transport system. This paper discusses the so-called ‘older driver problem’, presents crash data and evidence of the impacts of driving location and reduced fitness to drive on crash risk, and recommends countermeasures within the ‘Safe System’ context, with particular reference to urban road design and operation.     

New airline entry rates in deregulated air transport markets

This paper studies the influencing factors on entry (certification) of new airlines into the US airline industry over 21 years (1979–1999). These rates exhibit considerable fluctuations over the observed period. We analyze the US airline industry for a period of 21 years to determine the relationship of the observed fluctuations in the entry rates with political and extraordinary events, economic conditions and several industry specific variables. We present maximum likelihood estimates of an entry model on the negative Binomial distribution. This methodology reflects the discrete nature of the dependent variable. The results support the notions of positive macro-economic and industry specific developments on the entry opportunities of new airline companies.     

Domestic air passenger traffic and economic growth in China: Evidence from heterogeneous panel models

This paper applies recent panel methodology to examine the short-run dynamics, the long-run equilibrium relationships and the Granger causal relationship between economic growth and domestic air passenger traffic. It is based on the quarterly panel data of 29 provinces in China from the period of 2006Q1 to 2012Q3. Tests for panel unit roots, cointegration in heterogeneous panels and panel causality are employed in a bi-variate panel vector error correction model (PVECM), which is estimated by the system generalized moment method (SYS-GMM). The results show evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and domestic air passenger traffic. Specifically, 1% increase in the air passenger traffic is found to lead to an increase of 0.943% in real gross domestic product (GDP). A long-run and strong bi-directional Granger causal relationship is found between these two series. It is also found that there is a short-run uni-directional Granger causality running from the domestic air passenger traffic to the economic growth.     

The geography of car ownership in Mexico City: a joint model of households’ residential location and car ownership decisions

Suburbanization and car-ownership have increased rapidly in developing-world cities over the past half-century. This study examines the relationship between income, car ownership, and suburbanization across geographies and households in metropolitan Mexico City. Neither car-ownership trends by geography nor a mixed logit model of 43,000 households’ joint car-ownership and residential-location decisions suggest that car ownership and suburbanization are moving hand-in-hand. Instead, wealthier households tend to live in central locations and own and drive cars, while poorer households tend to live further from the urban center and rely more heavily on transit. If a random household’s income doubles, that household is around 44% more likely to get an additional car and 29% more likely to live in the urban center. Given the sticky nature of housing supply and the current model of peripheral housing production, aggregate responses to higher income are more difficult to predict, as they will almost certainly be offset by higher prices. Nevertheless, the findings suggest that higher income and car ownership do not tend to encourage a move to larger houses on larger suburban lots in Mexico City.     

Socially optimal replacement of conventional with electric vehicles for the US household fleet

In this study, a framework is proposed for minimizing the societal cost of replacing gas-powered household passenger cars with battery electric ones (BEVs). The societal cost consists of operational costs of heterogeneous driving patterns' cars, government investments for charging deployment, and monetized environmental externalities. The optimization framework determines the timeframe needed for conventional vehicles to be replaced with BEVs. It also determines the BEVs driving range during the planning timeframe, as well as the density of public chargers deployed on a linear transportation network over time. We leverage data sets that represent US household driving patterns, as well as the automobile and the energy markets, to apply the model. Results indicate that it takes 8 years for 80% of our conventional vehicle sample to be replaced with electric vehicles, under the base case scenario. The socially optimal all-electric driving range is 204 miles, with chargers placed every 172 miles on a linear corridor. All public chargers should be deployed at the beginning of the planning horizon to achieve greater savings over the years. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the timeframe for the socially optimal conversion of 80% of the sample varies from 6 to 12 years. The optimal decision variables are sensitive to battery pack and vehicle body cost, gasoline cost, the discount rate, and conventional vehicles' fuel economy. Faster conventional vehicle replacement is achieved when the gasoline cost increases, electricity cost decreases, and battery packs become cheaper over the years.     

Operational shadow pricing in back haul container shipping

Minimum acceptable rates for back haul cargo are difficult for carriers to establish in practice. They depend on complex factors such as availability of empty containers in the vicinity, cost of repositioning empties and container on-hiring decisions. A shadow pricing and “shadow credit” approach is proposed and applied to an inland network. Such a model can help carriers undertake yield management at the operational level to improve financial performance in a post-conference era. Results also suggest a positive relationship between variability in the imbalance situation of laden containers in a particular trade and volatility of short-term back haul freight rates.