Exploring the dynamic impacts of COVID-19 on intercity travel in China

Many studies have explored the effects of transportation and population movement on the spread of pandemics. However, little attention has been paid to the dynamic impact of pandemics on intercity travel and its recovery during a public health event period. Using intercity mobility and COVID-19 pandemic data, this study adopts the gradient boosting decision tree method to explore the dynamic effects of the COVID-19 on intercity travel in China. The influencing factors were classified into daily time-varying factors and time-invariant factors. The results show that China's intercity travel decreased on average by 51.35% from Jan 26 to Apr 7, 2020. Furtherly, the COVID-19 pandemic reduces intercity travel directly and indirectly by influencing industry development and transport connectivity. With the spread of COVID-19 and changes of control measures, the relationship between intercity travel and COVID-19, socio-economic development, transport is not linear. The relationship between intercity travel and secondary industry is illustrated by an inverted U-shaped curve from pre-pandemic to post-pandemic, whereas that with tertiary industry can be explained by a U-shaped curve. Meanwhile, this study highlights the dynamic effect of the COVID-19 on intercity mobility. These implications shed light on policies regarding the control measures during public health events that should include the dynamic impact of pandemics on intercity travel.     

An assessment of air passenger confidence a year into the COVID-19 crisis: A segmentation analysis of passengers in Norway

The COVID-19 crisis has become the most intense and long-lasting in the history of aviation. There is already a significant literature on the immediate impact of the outbreak, as well as on speculation on the future evolution of the industry. This paper seeks to contribute to this discussion by assessing a year into the crisis the demand related aspects and passenger behavioural impacts of the pandemic. Specifically, the paper aims to identify discrete market segments of air passengers according to their shared attitudes and preferences about air travel in light of the COVID-19 crisis, as well as past behaviour and future travel intentions. To achieve this, we analyse data from a large (n = 2096) online questionnaire survey of air passengers in Norway. The cluster analysis identifies four distinct passenger segments, with each displaying varying attitudes, behaviours, and levels of concern about air travel. One of these groups, described as the ‘Apprehensive Elders’, were identified as having the highest level of concern about flying, and subsequently showed a sharp decline in their intention to travel in the future. Another group, termed the ‘Cautious Commuters’, showed similarly enhanced levels of concerns about flying, but maintained a high propensity to fly following the pandemic despite these concerns. Regarding possible interventions to increase confidence in flying in the future, across all segments the data shows a clear preference for more ‘traditional’ active interventions, including wearing of face masks and enforcement of physical distancing, over and above passive or technological interventions. Norway represents a valuable case as a possible signal for future policy and practice in relation to the recovery of air travel following the pandemic. The findings have important implications for air transport managers and decision makers in terms of managing the perceptions and expectations of different passenger groups as air travel begins to return.     

Estimating the impact of COVID-19 on air travel in the medium and long term using neural network and Monte Carlo simulation

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a substantial impact on the airline industry. Air travel in the United States declined in 2020 with significantly lower domestic and international flights. The dynamic change and uncertainty in the trend of COVID-19 have made it difficult to predict future air travel. This paper aims at developing and testing neural network models that predict domestic and international air travel in the medium and long term based on residents' daily trips by distance, economic condition, COVID-19 severity, and travel restrictions. Data in the United States from various sources were used to train and validate the neural network models, and Monte Carlo simulations were constructed to predict air travel under uncertainty of the pandemic and economic growth. The results show that weekly economic index (WEI) is the most important predictor for air travel. Additionally, daily trips by distance play a more important role in the prediction of domestic air travel than the international one, while travel restrictions seem to have an impact on both. Sensitivity analysis results for four different scenarios indicate that air travel in the future is more sensitive to the change in WEI than the changes in COVID-19 variables. Additionally, even in the best-case scenario, when the pandemic is over and the economy is back to normal, it still takes several years for air travel to return to normal, as before the pandemic. The findings have significant contributions to the literature in COVID-19's impact on air transportation and air travel prediction.     

COVID-19 pandemic and prospects for recovery of the global aviation industry

The COVID-19 pandemic ushered a wave of economic decline across the world due to disruptions in the supply and demand chain for the travel market. This study examines potential recovery pathways from the global aviation industry following the severe negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using archival and secondary data mainly from Flightradar24, ICAO, IATA and EUROCONTROL, the study found that the pandemic inflicted a heavy toll on global aviation, which resulted in ratings downgrades, liquidation and bankruptcy of several airlines and airports due to severe cash burn instigated by travel restrictions. Although the industry is opening up, the recovery process seems much slower than anticipated, which could see more jobs and airlines failing in the absence of relevant support. The study recommends that as the sector opens up, it does so in a responsible manner, which puts measures that protect travellers, reduce costs, increase efficiency, and ensure a quality customer experience anchored on employees' health and customer safety. Recovery should also occur with the view to build back better in line with the provisions of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and at the same time responding to the dictates of Agenda 2030 on sustainable development goals (SDGs).     

The impact of COVID-19 on airline passenger travel behavior: An exploratory analysis on the Chinese aviation market

China was the first airline market in the world to be hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. It has been gradually recovering as the pandemic is largely contained domestically. However, with the global pandemic spread and great uncertainty, there has been a remarkable change in airline passengers’ travel behavior. This paper collected air passenger-level data from TravelSky in the Chinese market. In addition to the analyses on aggregate passenger flow patterns, this paper explores changes in airline passenger travel behavior, such as ticket booking time, age distribution of passengers, refunds and ticket changes, and passenger arrival time at airports. This is one of the first studies to focus on micro-level changes in airline passenger travel behavior by using objective passenger-level data. The pandemic-induced psychological changes in air travelers are explored, providing useful managerial and policymaking implications for the normalization of the pandemic and the recovery of the airline market in the post-pandemic era.     

Lockdowned: Everyday mobility changes in response to COVID-19

BackgroundThis paper looks into the impact of the recent COVID-19 epidemic on the daily mobility of people. Existing research into the epidemic travel patterns points at transport as a channel for disease spreading with especially long-distance travel in the centre of interest. We adopt a different approach looking into the effects that epidemic has on the transport system and specifically in relation to short-distance daily mobility activities. We go beyond simple travel avoidance behaviours and look into factors influencing change in travel times and in modal split under epidemic. This leads to the research problems we posit in this paper. We look into the overall reduction of daily travel and into the factors impacting peoples' decisions to refrain from daily traveling. This paper focuses on modes affected and explores differences between various societal groups.MethodsWe use a CATI survey with a representative sample size of 1069 respondents from Poland. The survey was carried out between March, 24th and April, 6th2020, with a start date one week after the Polish government introduced administrative measures aimed at slowing down the COVID-19 epidemic. For data analysis, we propose using the GLM (general linear model), allowing us to include all the qualitative and quantitative variables which depict our sample.ResultsWe observe significant drops in travel times under epidemic conditions. Those drops are similar regardless of the age group and gender. The time decrease depended on the purpose of travels, means of transport, traveller's household size, fear of coronavirus, main occupation, and change in it caused by the epidemic. The more the respondent was afraid of coronavirus, the more she or he shortened the travel time.     

Perceptions of terror stricken tourism destinations

ABSTRACT

In the wake of global safety and security concerns, it is important to understand and document perceptions held by tourists so as to inform destination recovery efforts post terror attack. This exploratory study employs focus groups to examine American millennials’ perceptions of risk and their intentions to travel to terror-stricken destinations, specifically Nice, France. Perceived risks related to general international travel articulated by participants included, health, theft, and safety concerns. Participants indicated that they were willing to travel to Nice, post terror attack, with the exception of one group that would choose to travel elsewhere in France. Participants’ rank ordering of the sources they would consult during the decision making process for travel to a terror stricken destination included: family, people with lived experience of the destination, and government. This paper contributes to risk perception literature, particularly scholarship on the nexus between terrorism and tourism.     

Embedded and exposed: exploring the lived experiences of African American tourists

ABSTRACT

The United States is experiencing a shift in racial demographics. Recent projections suggest that minority groups will make up over 40% of the country’s population by 2050. Such increases have made the topics of race, ethnicity, and culture an important area of study for researchers and tourism professionals alike. Existing explanations of differences in African American travel suggest that decisions are made due to marginality or ethnicity. Because travel preferences may be a byproduct of learned behaviors passed down through generations, it is imperative to understand both current and historical aspects of leisure behavior. In this qualitative study, the narratives of 12 African American tourists provided information which suggests that marginality, ethnicity, and issues related to discrimination impact their tourism-related attitudes and behaviors. Capturing the voices of African American travelers offers a more inclusive understanding of their travel experiences and insights into the relationship between race and tourism.     

Fear of cycling: Social,spatial, and temporal dimensions

Objective and perceived risk, danger, and safety concerns are often identified as barriers to taking up cycling. While a vast literature examines cycling safety, risk, and danger, little research examines relationships between fear and cycling, i.e. the emotional experience of risk, danger, and safety concerns. This paper addresses this research gap by exploring the fears reported by recent immigrants who are new cyclists in Toronto, Canada. Cyclists expressed many different types of fear; their fears were dynamic and possessed social, temporal, and spatial qualities. The two most frequent fears participants described were fear of injury and fear for personal safety. Fear of injury varied across the city and by time of day. It was also shaped by past cycling experiences, while appearing to attenuate with the accumulation of cycling skills. Fear of injury can also be social; and the primary focus herein is on how it can be gendered. For instance, gendered access to opportunities to cycle throughout the life course can shape cycling fear(s). Fear for personal safety was primarily expressed by women, was often shaped by past experiences of street harassment, and changed throughout the day, across the city, and was understood in relation to other places. Participants also described fears related to bicycle theft, getting lost, encountering mechanical problems, and getting in trouble with law enforcement.     

Unravel the impact of COVID-19 on the spatio-temporal mobility patterns of microtransit

Shared mobility is an essential component of the larger sharing economy. Ride-hailing, bike-sharing, e-scooters, and other types of shared mobility continue to grow worldwide. Among these services is microtransit, a new transport mode that extends transit coverage within a region. Mobile devices enable microtransit services, aggregating riders and using real-time routing algorithms to group customers traveling in similar directions. Meanwhile, the newly emerged coronavirus, COVID-19, has radically reshaped the ridership behavior of all transit services, including microtransit. While existing research evaluates the performance of microtransit pilot programs before the pandemic, there is no information concerning the spatio-temporal pattern of microtransit activities under the impact of COVID-19. The purpose of this paper is to apply eigendecomposition and k-clique percolation methods to uncover the spatio-temporal patterns of microtransit trips. Further, we used these approaches to identify underlying communities using data from a pilot program in Salt Lake City, Utah. The resulting research offers insight into how COVID-19 altered travel behavior. Specifically, eigendecomposition delineated the homogeneity and heterogeneity of travel patterns across temporal dimensions. We identified first mile/last mile trips as a major source of variance in both pre- and post-COVID periods and that transit-dependent users prove to be inelastic despite the threat of COVID-19. The k-clique percolation method detected possible community formations and tracked how these communities evolved during the pandemic. In addition, we systematically analyzed overlapping communities and the network structure around shared nodes by using a clustering coefficient. The workflow developed in this research broadly is generalizable and valuable for understanding the unique spatio-temporal patterns of microtransit. The framework can also help transit agencies with performance evaluation, regional transport strategies, and optimal vehicle dispatching.     

What can we learn from the JATM literature for the future of aviation post Covid-19? - A bibliometric and visualization analysis

This paper aims to draw lessons from retrospectively evaluating the evolution of the air transport discipline right up to the COVID-19 outbreak through the Journal of Air Transport Management (JATM), the main scholarly air transportation journal globally. As such, this study deploys a comprehensive bibliometric analysis and graphical mapping of the JATM knowledge body through CiteSpace visualization of 1483 JATM papers from 2001 to 2019. Our results suggest that while the industry has experienced pandemics and economic crises in the past, both were not dominant in influencing JATM literature neither in frequency nor in impact. That said, recovery, crisis and disruption are important key words in JATM papers not just in regard to safety and economic crisis management but increasingly also related to health concerns with recent key papers published in the pandemic and recovery management context which may have helped the industry dealing with the current crisis as well as current JATM papers on this topic assisting with preparing for a transitioning out of COVID-19 world.     

Public transport trends in Australia during the COVID-19 pandemic: An investigation of the influence of bio-security concerns on trip behaviour

This paper draws on findings from an Australia-wide survey with data collected in three waves throughout 2020 to explore the impact of COVID-19 on public transport trends in metropolitan areas of Australia. Following consideration of the public transport sector response to the pandemic and the emerging literature context, we explore three principal questions: (i) How has weekly travel composition changed across the waves? (ii) How has level of concern with using public transport changed over the course of the pandemic given new bio-security concerns? and (iii) How has attitudes to risk been associated with the changes in PT use? A key finding is that concerns over bio-security issues around public transport are enduring, that concern about hygiene is significantly negatively related to public transport use and that those with higher concern about the hygiene of public transport also held higher concern about COVID-19 at work. Even as COVID-19 restrictions are eased, both concern about crowds and hygiene have a significant and negative correlation with public transport use. Concluding remarks are offered on what might need to happen for public transport patronage to start returning.     

Elderly mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic: A qualitative exploration in Kunming,China

The outbreak of COVID-19 in China started at the end of December 2019. This led to a series of containment measurements to control the spread of COVID-19. Despite of the widely reported effects of these measures, inadequate attention has gone to their social impacts. The elderly, as one of the most susceptible populations, has experienced a considerable reduction in mobility.This paper explores the role mobility played and how the social environment influenced elderly mobility in the first 2 months of the COVID-19 outbreak. We surveyed 186 families with a total of 248 elderly people in Kunming. The results show that mobility improves the quality of daily living, such as access to grocery shopping, maintenance of outdoor activities for health cultivation and preserving social networks even during the pandemic. Four themes relating to social environment emerged from the data as elements influencing elderly mobility during the pandemic: social pressure, practice of the virtue of Xiao, the social norm of respecting the aged and the impacts of technological advances. Among them, the virtue of Xiao enabled the elderly to stay in place in the early phase of COVID-19 by fulfilling their needs for daily necessities and social interactions, whilst being less technology-savvy further excluded them socially by restraining them from restoring mobility after the lifting of travel restrictions.     

Changes in car and bus usage amid the COVID-19 pandemic: Relationship with land use and land price

This study aimed to explore the impacts of COVID-19 on car and bus usage and their relationships with land use and land price. Large-scale trip data of car and bus usage in Daejeon, South Korea, were tested. We made a trip-chain-level data set to analyze travel behavior based on activity-based travel volumes. Hexagonal cells were used to capture geographical explanatory variables, and a mixed-effect regression model was adopted to determine the impacts of COVID-19. The modeling outcomes demonstrated behavioral differences associated with using cars and buses amid the pandemic. People responded to the pandemic by reducing their trips more intensively during the daytime and weekends. Moreover, they avoided crowded or shared spaces by reducing bus trips and trips toward commercial areas. In terms of social equity, trips of people living in wealthier areas decreased more than those of people living in lower-priced areas, especially trips by buses. The findings contribute to the previous literature by adding a fundamental reference for the different impacts of pandemics on two universal transportation modes.     

What factors predict the type of person who is willing to fly in an autonomous commercial airplane?

There has been much discussion and research lately highlighting autonomous commercial flight, with most of the focus on engineering design and legal issues. Some prior research has shown that many people are generally not willing to fly in fully autonomous aircraft; however, there is a significant proportion of society that is willing to use these types of airplanes. It is critical for the aviation industry to be able to identify these individuals as they will likely be the early adopters. The current study was designed with the purpose of determining what factors predict the type of person who would be willing to fly in fully autonomous commercial airplanes. We provided a hypothetical scenario to 1042 potential passengers from the United States and asked them to rate their willingness to fly in that situation. We also collected demographic data, along with ratings of various scales to determine what predictors were significant in a regression model. In Stage 1, we built the model from a dataset of 522 participants and determined that the significant factors were familiarity with autonomous flight, fun factor, general wariness of new technology, happiness, fear, age, and educational level. This model accounted for 85.9% of the variance in the data. In Stage 2, we tested the model with 520 participants and found excellent model fit. We discuss the practical and theoretical implications of these findings.     

Testing the differentiated impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on air travel demand considering social inclusion

The economic downturn and the air travel crisis triggered by the recent coronavirus pandemic pose a substantial threat to the new consumer class of many emerging economies. In Brazil, considerable improvements in social inclusion have fostered the emergence of hundreds of thousands of first-time fliers over the past decades. We apply a two-step regression methodology in which the first step consists of identifying air transport markets characterized by greater social inclusion, using indicators of the local economies’ income distribution, credit availability, and access to the Internet. In the second step, we inspect the drivers of the plunge in air travel demand since the pandemic began, differentiating markets by their predicted social inclusion intensity. After controlling for potential endogeneity stemming from the spread of COVID-19 through air travel, our results suggest that short and low-density routes are among the most impacted airline markets and that business-oriented routes are more impacted than leisure ones. Finally, we estimate that a market with 1% higher social inclusion is associated with a 0.153%–0.166% more pronounced decline in demand during the pandemic. Therefore, markets that have benefited from greater social inclusion in the country may be the most vulnerable to the current crisis.     

Airport user experience unpacked: Conceptualizing its potential in the face of COVID-19

Given the unprecedented challenges imposed on the aviation industry by the COVID-19 pandemic, this paper proposes a new perspective on airport user experience as a field of study to unlock its potential as a basis for strategic roadmapping. Through an integrative literature review, this study points out a dominant focus, in practice and research, on customer experience and service quality, as opposed to user experience, to help airports gain a competitive edge in an increasingly commoditized industry. The review highlights several issues with this understanding of experience, as users other than passengers, such as employees, working for the airport and its myriad stakeholders, as well as visitors, are largely omitted from study. Given the complexity of the system, operationally, passengers are generally reduced to smooth flows of a passive mass, which this study argues is both a missed opportunity and a vulnerability exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Major events apart from COVID-19 are used to show the negative effects this simplification of user experience has had. Based on solutions and models proposed in previous studies, a conceptual model has been developed to illustrate the postulated potential of a deeper and more holistic study of airport user experience to make airport systems generally more agile, flexible and future-proof. As such, the paper advocates to utilize the user experience as a basis for strategic planning to equip airports with the know-how to manage not just daily operations more effectively but also the aftermath of and recovery from major events like the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, with the user experience at the center of the strategic roadmap, airports can plan ahead to mitigate the impact of future scenarios. The importance of future research and the use of existing research are discussed.     

An explorative study of corporate travellers’ perception at a German airport

The modern working environment is changing at a fast pace due to factors such as globalisation, digitalisation, and demographic trends. Taking an exploratory approach, this study examines how prevailing factors shaping the working world may influence the perception of business air travellers. Relevant factors are identified through a literature review, which results are confirmed by expert interviews (N = 11). Business travellers are surveyed (N = 67) at Munich Airport regarding their personal experiences and their evaluations of these identified factors. Their perceptions concerning the psychological and physical experience, digitalisation, age, and gender are examined in detail.Findings provide insights into the development of business air travel, with a focus on German business travellers. Despite the influence of advanced information and communications technology, survey results reveal that air travel might stay an essential part of the working world, as face-to-face meetings are not fully replaceable. Increasing multi-partner project work and flexible work structures could even lead into an increase of air travel. The study also delineates recommendations and research potential, such as the extension of the study in the light of the global COVID-19 pandemic. The question of how trends within the working world influence the perception of business related air travel is rarely studied. This study contributes to this gap in the scientific community.     

突发事件对我国铁路客运量的干预特征研究

基于新冠肺炎疫情等突发事件对人们日常生活出行的影响,结合X-13ARIMASEATS季节调整模型的自动识别最优ARIMA模型和检测突发事件离群值功能,使用脉冲函数和阶梯函数设计基于离群值的突发事件的干预变量,构建铁路客运量的时间序列ARIMAX干预模型,对铁路客运量近年受到的SARS疫情、铁路客票实名制政策和新冠肺炎疫情等突发事件的冲击趋势进行干预比较分析。结果显示,SARS和新冠肺炎疫情对铁路客运量冲击较大,SARS疫情在冲击滞后的第5~6期铁路客运量基本得到恢复,新冠肺炎疫情对铁路客运量冲击一直在持续中,铁路客运实名制政策实施社会性较强,冲击具有波动性和不稳定性特征,持续时间较短;相对季节调整模型的趋势分析优势,干预模型拟合预测精度显著高于季节调整模型,预测显示我国铁路客运量在缓慢持续回暖中。