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1.
China was the first aviation market in the world hit hard by COVID-19 and has been recovering gradually as the pandemic became largely under control within mainland China. This study reviews the recovery pattern influenced by the Chinese government's aviation policy choices, in the hope that our discussions and findings will help improve aviation policy responses elsewhere. While the domestic market in mainland China has enjoyed a quick recovery to about 80% of the pre-crisis level by July 2020, the recovery of international services has been much slower, due to the bilateral route and flight frequency/capacity control and strict requirements for health check and quarantine. China's domestic aviation market was recovered by about 80% in two months after the pandemic became under good control. Most other countries with a “curve flattening” strategy, instead of full pandemic control, may not expect the fast recovery path China has achieved. A British “travel corridor” approach may be more practical for Western countries to follow, albeit more likely to be subject to serious setbacks and disruptions. The aviation fee reductions and cost support China and many other countries have been using are helpful by reducing airlines' marginal costs, but not sufficient for carriers to return to profitability or sustainable operations. Capital injection and/or credit guarantee may be needed for many airlines to survive. With various, often uncoordinated, regulations imposed in international markets, airlines based in open economies that have small domestic markets will face particularly serious challenges during the recovery process. 相似文献
2.
The current outbreak of COVID-19 is an unprecedented event in air transportation. This is probably the first time that global aviation contributed to the planet-wide spread of a pandemic, with casualties in over two hundred countries. As of August 23rd, 2020, the number of infected cases has topped 23 million, reportedly relating to more than 800,000 deaths worldwide. However, there is also a second side of the pandemic: it has led to an unmatched singularity in the global air transportation system. In what could be considered a highly uncoordinated, almost chaotic manner, countries have closed their borders, and people are reluctant/unable to travel due to country-specific lock-down measures. Accordingly, aviation is one of the industries that has been suffering most due to the consequences of the pandemic outbreak, despite probably being one of its largest initial drivers. In this study, we investigate the impact of COVID-19 on global air transportation at different scales, ranging from worldwide airport networks where airports are nodes and links between airports exist when direct flights exist, to international country networks where countries are contracted as nodes, and to domestic airport networks for representative countries/regions. We focus on the spatial-temporal evolutionary dynamics of COVID-19 in air transportation networks. Our study provides a comprehensive empirical analysis on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on aviation from a complex system perspective using network science tools. 相似文献
3.
This paper aims to draw lessons from retrospectively evaluating the evolution of the air transport discipline right up to the COVID-19 outbreak through the Journal of Air Transport Management (JATM), the main scholarly air transportation journal globally. As such, this study deploys a comprehensive bibliometric analysis and graphical mapping of the JATM knowledge body through CiteSpace visualization of 1483 JATM papers from 2001 to 2019. Our results suggest that while the industry has experienced pandemics and economic crises in the past, both were not dominant in influencing JATM literature neither in frequency nor in impact. That said, recovery, crisis and disruption are important key words in JATM papers not just in regard to safety and economic crisis management but increasingly also related to health concerns with recent key papers published in the pandemic and recovery management context which may have helped the industry dealing with the current crisis as well as current JATM papers on this topic assisting with preparing for a transitioning out of COVID-19 world. 相似文献
4.
Accurate forecasting of air travel demand is vital for the resource planning of the air transportation industry. Therefore, identifying contributing factors and understanding the effect of these factors in causing the variation of air travel demand have been one of the key focus areas in air transportation research. This article reviews 87 air travel demand studies published from 2010 to 2020 and summarizes these studies using their input data and primary analytical methods. We also devise and conduct three citation analyses to further explore the relationships among the reviewed studies. Our review finds that a typical empirical study of air travel demand analysis would focus on the demand at the national level, employ time-series data concerning socio-economic and airline operational factors and use time-series based methods to estimate the relationship among the selected time-series. These studies are mostly applying existing analytical frameworks to specific problems rather than developing original methods, therefore their relationship to each other is parallel rather than sequential. A small number of references are frequently cited by the reviewed studies primarily because of their methodological contribution to time-series analysis. A common limitation of existing literature is that very few reviewed studies provide validation of their analyses. In addition, methods that are not regression or time-series based have very limited application in this area so far, so are the non-convention data such as mobility data or social media data. Besides providing a systematic summary of recent publications in a specific field, this review uses a relatively objective and replicable framework to compare and link studies by their references, which can be visualized by the figures included in this review. This review is expected to benefit future researchers that are interested in either air transportation or the application of time-series forecasting in an applied domain. 相似文献
5.
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a substantial impact on the airline industry. Air travel in the United States declined in 2020 with significantly lower domestic and international flights. The dynamic change and uncertainty in the trend of COVID-19 have made it difficult to predict future air travel. This paper aims at developing and testing neural network models that predict domestic and international air travel in the medium and long term based on residents' daily trips by distance, economic condition, COVID-19 severity, and travel restrictions. Data in the United States from various sources were used to train and validate the neural network models, and Monte Carlo simulations were constructed to predict air travel under uncertainty of the pandemic and economic growth. The results show that weekly economic index (WEI) is the most important predictor for air travel. Additionally, daily trips by distance play a more important role in the prediction of domestic air travel than the international one, while travel restrictions seem to have an impact on both. Sensitivity analysis results for four different scenarios indicate that air travel in the future is more sensitive to the change in WEI than the changes in COVID-19 variables. Additionally, even in the best-case scenario, when the pandemic is over and the economy is back to normal, it still takes several years for air travel to return to normal, as before the pandemic. The findings have significant contributions to the literature in COVID-19's impact on air transportation and air travel prediction. 相似文献
6.
The coronavirus pandemic has had a devastating impact on the demand for air transport. One passenger segment that has received relatively little attention is ageing passengers (defined as aged 65+), in spite of the fact that this group has been disproportionately affected by COVID-19, and in recent years has been viewed as a potential growth market. Therefore, the aim of this brief paper is to analyse the attitudes of ageing passengers by assessing air travel plans in the next 12 months, examining the factors influencing future flying decisions, and investigating the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on perceived risks and experiences associated with flying. The findings show that over 60% of ageing passengers are planning to travel by air in the next 12 months, although the nature of their trips may change. Factors such as flexible ticket booking and quarantine rules do not appear to be key drivers affecting travel decisions and within the different stages of the air journey, getting to/from the airport is perceived as the safest stage. The findings suggest that there are various COVID-19 implications for airlines and airports serving this market segment, ranging from the use of self-service technology, the generation of commercial/ancillary revenues and the design of surface access policies. 相似文献
7.
This paper discusses the situation of China's air cargo sector facing the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on the expectation that it can go out of recession more easily than China's air passenger sector, this paper analyzes four aspects that are favorable and unfavorable for its further development: (1) strengths (China's sustainable economic basis and proliferating cargo suppliers), (2) weaknesses (insufficient cargo capacity and less business internationalization), (3) opportunities (top authority support, rising e-commerce demand, and new technological momentum), and (4) challenges (uncertain trade environment and increasing profitability pressure). Then this paper suggests strategies for China's air cargo suppliers to adapt to the pandemic. 相似文献
8.
This paper estimates the relationship between the strength of economic shocks and temporal recovery in the world air transport industry. Our results show that world recovery of passenger demand to pre-COVID-19 levels is estimated to take 2.4 years (recovery by late-2022), with the most optimistic estimate being 2 years (recovery by mid-2022), and the most pessimistic estimate 6 years (recovery in 2026). Large regional differences are detected, Asia Pacific has the shortest estimated average recovery time 2.2 years, followed by North America 2.5 years and Europe 2.7 years. For air freight the results show a shorter average world recovery time of 2.2 years compared to passenger demand. At the regional level, Europe and Asia Pacific are comparable with average recovery times of 2.2 years while North America is predicted to recover faster in 1.5 years. The results show that the strength of economic shocks of various origins impacts the linear growth of passenger and freight traffic and the temporal recovery of the industry in a predictable transitory way. Hence, the impact of the COVID-19 recession will represent a temporary, although long-lasting, correction to previous growth levels. 相似文献
9.
This paper assesses government support measures to the air transport sector following the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic from two points of view. First, it explores the factors that shape governments’ willingness to support airlines. This is followed by a discussion on the various types of support that may be provided and how country-specific parameters influence the choice of measures. Second, it analyses the implications of government support in three dimensions relevant to air transport policy: competition and liberalisation, airline ownership and control, and environmental sustainability. The analysis suggests that most governments give a high priority to maintaining air transport connectivity in order to protect economic activity and jobs, in aviation itself and in related sectors such as tourism. The trade-off between ensuring connectivity and maintaining competition after the COVID-19 pandemic is a challenge with several political and economic dimensions. The re-orientation of public policy in the aftermath of the pandemic may limit the relative importance of the policy priorities that shaped the evolution of the air transport sector before the crisis, especially those related to climate change and the environment. The role of government and public authorities at all levels – especially the type and duration of measures affecting transport operations – will be crucial for the future development of the aviation industry. 相似文献
10.
The terminal infrastructure is critical for the effective and efficient operation of air traffic flow. The increase in air traffic flow creates pressure on air transport infrastructures and networks. Therefore, decision-makers need to develop and utilize efficient evaluation and analysis tools based on the limited availability of resources. Inspired by the underlying structure of queues for air traffic flow, a Petri-net-based model is developed in this study to characterize the system performance. In this study, air transportation networks are analyzed using a series of performance indicators that are based on a discrete-event system model. 相似文献
11.
This paper looks at the various types of hubs that have evolved in the air transportation network in the USA. Since deregulation of the industry at the end of the 1970s, the major air carriers have expanded their networks to become more competitive, and the number and types of hubs have grown accordingly. A connectivity analysis using a traditional matrix approach is used to derive indices which are the basis for the development of a connectivity classification scheme. In addition, the various service functions of hubs are explored. 相似文献
12.
Do the determinants of service and pricing on “regional” routes – linking towns and smaller cities to main trunk routes and/or to each other – differ from the established results from the literature? We study all flights (about 3000) on all regional routes (about 250) with scheduled airline service from one of about 130 regional towns or cities, in regional airline markets in six countries: Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and a sample of three U.S. states which closely resemble the other regions studied. For each flight we have observations on up to five prices offered at different times before flight date. We also have equipment type and social-economic data. Overall, our results give qualified support to the standard gravity model of the extent of service between city pairs, though with two interesting differences: operators on regional routes have greater flexibility in the size of aircraft they can deploy, which results in a finer-grained variability of service offerings and, the presence of competition on regional routes has a large effect on the total supply of seats. We are able to successfully estimate a well-specified airfare model, which shows strong effects of competition on prices, quite substantial intertemporal price discrimination, and interesting differences between regional and main trunk route pricing. 相似文献
13.
Due to the shortage of cargo aircraft, Chinese express companies have to provide transportation services with a hybrid method that consists of “rented bellies and self-owned cargo aircraft”. Because the bellies are rented from air passenger companies and because the cargo aircraft are owned by the express companies, it is important for the express companies to use their cargo aircraft as effectively as possible. This paper constructs a bi-level model to optimize the flight transportation network of an express company. The upper model designs the network and allocates the transportation capacity with the objective of minimizing the total transportation cost, and the lower model calculates the link flows in user equilibrium. Data from ShunFeng (SF) Express Company (China) are used to conduct the case study. Using the model outputs, the flows on links and at nodes are analyzed to illustrate the transportation and transshipment situations. 相似文献
14.
A common metric to measure the robustness of a network is its algebraic connectivity. This paper introduces the flight routes addition/deletion problem and compares three different methods to analyze and optimize the algebraic connectivity of the air transportation network. The Modified Greedy Perturbation algorithm (MGP) provides a local optimum in an efficient iterative manner. The Weighted Tabu Search (WTS) is developed for the flight routes addition/deletion problem to offer a better optimal solution with longer computation time. The relaxed semidefinite programming (SDP) is used to set a performance upper bound and then three rounding techniques are applied to obtain feasible solutions. The simulation results show the trade-off among the Modified Greedy Perturbation, Weighted Tabu Search and relaxed SDP, with which we can decide the appropriate algorithm to adopt for maximizing the algebraic connectivity of the air transportation networks of different sizes. Finally a real air transportation network of Virgin America is investigated. 相似文献
15.
To understand as to how scheduled air services link a region to other markets, we develop connectivity and hub centrality metrics. These metrics measure the quality of all scheduled air services in terms of frequency, detours, layover time and destination quality using a valuation scale being derived from observed passenger behavior. By computing yearly scores for 1990 to 2012, we analyze the geography of and trends in worldwide connectivity and hub centrality. While we observe significant growth of aggregate connectivity, the trends are heterogeneous with regard to the type of connectivity as well as time and location. 相似文献
16.
The economic downturn and the air travel crisis triggered by the recent coronavirus pandemic pose a substantial threat to the new consumer class of many emerging economies. In Brazil, considerable improvements in social inclusion have fostered the emergence of hundreds of thousands of first-time fliers over the past decades. We apply a two-step regression methodology in which the first step consists of identifying air transport markets characterized by greater social inclusion, using indicators of the local economies’ income distribution, credit availability, and access to the Internet. In the second step, we inspect the drivers of the plunge in air travel demand since the pandemic began, differentiating markets by their predicted social inclusion intensity. After controlling for potential endogeneity stemming from the spread of COVID-19 through air travel, our results suggest that short and low-density routes are among the most impacted airline markets and that business-oriented routes are more impacted than leisure ones. Finally, we estimate that a market with 1% higher social inclusion is associated with a 0.153%–0.166% more pronounced decline in demand during the pandemic. Therefore, markets that have benefited from greater social inclusion in the country may be the most vulnerable to the current crisis. 相似文献
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18.
Because the Essential Air Service (EAS) is a controversial federal program, a debate regarding its rehabilitation options and even its complete termination has been on the political agenda for more than a decade. For the beneficiaries of the program, most notably communities receiving subsidized air services and regional airlines supplying these services, EAS flights increase the accessibility of small and remote communities. For those people defending low government expenditures and free markets, EAS flights are a typical example of public intervention and wasteful government spending. In addition, increasing federal appropriations, rising per passenger subsidies, and the growing number of communities asking for subsidized air services have generated public attention, resulting in calls for improvements to enhance the efficiency of the program. Using Web-based survey data gathered from a pool of 95 city officials representing 56 EAS communities, this study aimed at contributing to the debate by attempting to provide evidence regarding how EAS communities perceived the importance of EAS flights to their communities, how they evaluated the then-current state of EAS flights, how they locally supported EAS flights, and how they assessed the possible rehabilitation options. The results of the survey revealed that EAS communities (1) assigned a high importance to EAS flights but not as high an importance to creating more jobs, improving the quality of education, and improving the quality of health services; (2) believed that the frequency of the flights was at the right level and that the airfares were expensive; (3) undertook marketing efforts to increase awareness of the flights, to attract air carriers to their communities, and to implement market studies for determining the potential of the flights; and (4) did not believe that rehabilitation options, such as employing alternative transportation modes, using smaller aircrafts, and consolidating EAS flights, would work, but they supported awarding longer-term EAS contracts. 相似文献
19.
In this research, we analyze the evolution of the international air transportation country network from 2002 to 2013 with two perspectives: The network’s physical topology and the functional network with traffic information. Our analysis shows that the network is scale-free and has the small-world property. The evolution of triadic properties suggests that the network gears towards symmetric, transitive closure. We find that United States, Great Britain, and France are critical from both perspectives; Surprisingly, South Africa is particularly critical from topological point of view. Furthermore, topological and functional criticality are highly correlated to the GDP of a country. 相似文献
20.
Etienne Billette de Villemeur 《Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review》2004,40(6):465-476
In spite of deregulation on the air-transportation markets, many connections are still operated by a single operator on regional markets, in particular in Europe. Evidence thus calls for some regulation in this industry. There is, however, a great concern for the (possibly negative) consequences of price regulation on the quality of services. We argue that both aspects should be considered jointly and propose a mechanism for the decentralization of the optimal structure of services. The regulatory procedure is based on the sole book-keeping data and requires the regulator to use only an estimate of travellers’ average value of time. 相似文献