A model to forecast airport-level General Aviation demand

General Aviation (GA) demand forecast plays an important role in aviation management, planning and policy making. The objective of this paper is to develop an airport-level GA demand forecast model. The GA demand at an airport is modeled as a function of social-economic and demographic factors, the availability of supply factors, the competition from the commercial aviation, the number of based aircraft, and the presence of a flight school. Our models suggest that the relative fuel price – fuel price compared with personal income – is a significant determinant of airport level GA demand. The elasticity of itinerant and local GA demand with respect to the relative fuel price is −0.43 and −0.52, respectively. Our results are compared with those reported in other studies. Furthermore, we made projections of GA demand for the airports in the Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) using three fuel price scenarios from the Energy Information Administration. Our projections under the “business-as-usual” fuel price scenario are close to those in the TAF. Our models could prove useful, for example, for the Federal Aviation Administration and airport planners to prepare airport-level GA demand forecast.     

Impacts of COVID-19 on aircraft usage and fuel consumption: A case study on four Chinese international airports

COVID-19 pandemic starting in early 2020 has greatly impacted human and industrial activities. Air transport in China shrank abruptly in February 2020, following a year-long gradual recovery. The airline companies reacted to this unprecedented event by dramatically reducing the flight volume and rearranging the aircraft types. As the first major economy that successfully controls the spread of COVID-19, China can provide a unique opportunity to quantify the medium-long impacts on the air transport industry. To quantify the corresponding changes and to elucidate the effects of COVID-19 in the wake of two major outbreaks centered in Wuhan and Beijing, we analyze twelve flight routes formed by four selected airports, using the Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) data in 2019 and 2020. Our results show that the total flight volume in 2020 reduced to 67.8% of 2019 in China. The recovering time of flight volume was about 2–6 months, dependent on the severity. In order to unwind the severe challenge, airlines mainly relied on aircraft B738 and A321 between February and June in 2020 because the fuel consumption per seat of these two aircraft types is the lowest. Besides, fuel consumption and aircraft emissions are calculated according to the Base of Aircraft Data (BADA) and the International Civil Aviation Organization's Engine Emissions Databank (ICAO's EEDB). At the end of 2020, the ratios of daily fuel consumption and aircraft emissions of 2020 to 2019 rebounded to about 0.875, suggesting the domestic commercial flights were nearly fully recovered. Our results may provide practical guidance and meaningful expectation for commercial aircraft management for other countries.     

Fuel burn rates of commercial passenger aircraft: variations by seat configuration and stage distance

Aircraft fuel consumption is a very large component of airline costs. Fuel burn is also very important because it is highly correlated with emissions and contributes directly to transport externalities. This paper calibrates fuel burn in kilos per seat per nautical mile for aircraft using the EMEP/EEA aircraft inventory database. We then employ the model with OAG flight schedule data to evaluate fuel burn by flight routes and aircraft types at a global scale. The paper shows comparative fuel use among different distance based markets as well as among a variety of routes in the long-haul market. The results show geographical heterogeneity of fuel burn rates among a variety of routes, while controlling for seat configuration and stage distance. The paper finds that stage lengths centered on 1500–2000 NM have the lowest fuel burn rates under current technology, fleet composition, and seat configuration. These findings, together with comments on the viability of long range flights provide better understandings not only for the carbon taxation debates but also for operational efficiency of current aviation markets. The lower rates for moderate distance flights seems to favor networks without extreme links, and supports the use of a hub connection scheme.     

Air freight hubs in the FedEx system: Analysis of fuel use

This paper provides a data based analysis of FedEx air freighter activities from selected hub locations. The basic idea is that air freighters have a set of range and payload parameters and their corresponding fuel burn depends on weight and distance. Data from 2011 to 12 (FlightAware) are used for 180,000 + flights on origin, destination and aircraft type. The particular aircraft vary widely in payload, but additional parameters may be derived from industry web sites and BTS. The research uses flight activity at hubs such as Memphis and Indianapolis (among others) and computes the aggregate distance flown on specific aircraft. The linkage between the hub and aggregate fuel use (assuming that the out bound flights are allocated to the hub) will give some quantifiable measures of the costs allocated to the hub. The paper examines particular aspects of the air freight system that are especially vulnerable to a spike in the costs of aviation fuel. These observations suggest that traffic to regional air express and air freight hubs is likely to respond in complex ways to fuel costs.     

The historical fuel efficiency characteristics of regional aircraft from technological, operational, and cost perspectives

To develop approaches that effectively reduce aircraft emissions, it is necessary to understand the mechanisms that have enabled historical improvements in aircraft efficiency. This paper focuses on the impact of regional aircraft on the US aviation system and examines the technological, operational and cost characteristics of turboprop (TP) and regional jet (RJ) aircraft. Regional aircraft are 40–60% less fuel efficient than their larger narrow- and wide-body counterparts, while RJs are 10–60% less fuel efficient than TPs. Fuel efficiency differences can be explained largely by differences in aircraft operations, not technology. Direct operating costs per revenue passenger kilometer are 2.5–6 times higher for regional aircraft because they operate at lower load factors and perform fewer miles over which to spread fixed costs. Further, despite incurring higher fuel costs, RJs are shown to have operating costs similar to TPs when flown over comparable stage lengths.     

Complaints caused by aircraft operations: an assessment of annoyance by noise level and time of day

The impact of aircraft movements on the local community surrounding an international airport was investigated using airport data on complaints, noise monitoring, aircraft flight paths and movements to assess annoyance due to noise level and time-of-day. As predicted, the louder the noise the more complaints were generated, with twice the complaints per movement at 110–114 PNdB compared with 74–79 PNdB.The hourly patterns in flight frequency and complaints were clearly distinct. Calculations of the complaints per aircraft movement for each hour of the day showed a striking 24 h pattern with night flights (23.00–06.00) causing on average nearly five times more complaints than the rest of the day (06.00–23.00). The time of the greatest propensity to complain about aircraft noise was between 01.00 and 02.00 and the lowest between 08.00 and 09.00.The circadian pattern in sensitivity to aircraft noise could be used to inform the development of airport operations and flight movements to minimize community disturbance.     

Analysis of the recent evolution of commercial air traffic CO2 emissions and fleet utilization in the six largest national markets of the European Union

This paper presents the results of a study performed to analyze the evolution of commercial air traffic and CO₂ emissions in the European Union, from 2010 to 2013. Data sources are the European Commission's Eurostat Air Transport Statistics (Eurostat) and EUROCONTROL flight plans database. The changes in the fuel efficiency are analyzed and the potential reasons for those changes investigated. The evolution in the airline fleet composition during the last decade is presented as one of the reasons for the improvement in fuel efficiency, measured in burnt fuel per total Revenue Tonne Kilometre (RTK), as well as the different parameters depending on the airline business model (network carriers, low cost companies, etc.) and the aircraft type.Results show a slight reduction in the traffic, both for passengers and cargo (about −0.8%), and a more important reduction in CO₂ emissions (−4.3%), thanks to an improvement in the fuel efficiency parameter (−3.5%) for the three years period. There has been a relevant change in the fleet composition in the last ten years, with the replacement of older models for more efficient ones, and a shift to larger aircraft, particularly in the regional segment. Traffic has decreased in shorter distances (internal EU traffic), but increased in more efficient long range flights (extra-EU traffic), resulting also in an improvement of the efficiency parameter as average aircraft size and stage length increases.     

The effect of flight distance on fuel mileage and CO2 per passenger kilometer

In this study, the effect of distance on fuel mileage (fuel burn per nautical mile) and CO₂ intensity, based on a large amount of actual flight data, is discussed for narrow-body commercial aircraft performing domestic flights for flight distances of between ～200 and ～800 NM, in Turkey. For twenty-nine domestic routes, the average CO₂ intensity is calculated to be 88 gr/pa-km, with an 80% load factor, ranging from between 112 gr/pa-km (207 gr/pa-NM) for the shortest route and 78 gr/pa-km (145 gr/pa-NM) for the longest route. An overall runway-to-runway analysis reveals that the average flight fuel consumption increases by 5.1 kg for each additional nautical mile. The discussion is extended to cover wind effect, through westbound and eastbound flights, on fuel consumption. The average fuel mileage of the eastbound flights, above 30 kft, is found to be 11.2% lower than those for the westbound flights. A sensitivity analysis is also carried out to reveal the effects of three main flight performance parameters, namely, cruise altitude, cruise speed and aircraft mass on the cruise CO₂ intensity.     

Licensing and recognition of the aircraft maintenance engineers – A comparative study

The main purpose of licensing is to establish the accountability of a professional in an area. This study focus on the role of licensed engineers involved in aviation. The licensing of aircraft maintenance engineers is a mandatory requirement in the contracting states of the International Civil Aviation Organisation. This paper compares the licensing systems of various countries and looks at differences in the licensing standards that affect their acceptance by another contracting state. It looks at the degree to which non-safety considerations, such as protecting trade and generating additional fees, can affect these decisions. Although most contracting states follow International Civil Aviation Organisation standards for licensing, some dilution in relation to the privileges of aircraft maintenance license has been noticed in the European Aviation Safety Agency system. This paper also looks at the value of category C license in the Agency system.     

The cost of abatement options to reduce carbon emissions from Australian international flights

In 2012, a total of 13.1 million tonnes of carbon dioxide were emitted by 14 airlines while transporting 72 per cent of international passengers into and out of Australia in 2012. With passenger and cargo traffic growing at between five to six per cent annually from 2013 to 2033, acquiring more fuel efficient aircraft to both renew the existing fleet and to service growth has the greatest potential in reducing emissions over the next 20 years. Our analysis shows that implementing carbon dioxide emissions abatement options such as installing light weight seats, iPad electronic flight bags, winglets, washing aircraft engines and reducing the number of engines used during taxiing, all offer net financial savings when considered over 20 years. Acquiring new fuel efficient aircraft has the biggest impact on emissions reduction. Low interest loans and longer loan repayment periods may incentivise airlines to acquire more fuel efficient aircraft to service traffic growth but other complimentary incentives and penalties are required to influence airlines to replace their current fleet with more fuel efficient aircraft.     

Airline fuel usage and carbon emissions: Determining factors

Using annual data on individual US airlines over the 1995–2015 period, this paper presents regression results relating an airline's total fuel usage to seven variables: the available ton miles of capacity (passengers plus freight and mail) provided by the airline; the average seat capacity of its aircraft, average stage length (flight distance); average load factor (measured by weight); the average vintage (construction year) of its aircraft; the percentage of the airline's flights that are delayed; and the average annual fuel price. The results show how fuel usage and carbon emissions depend on a small set of crucial variables. The estimated fuel-price effect allows the emissions impact of an optimal emissions charge to be computed, and the estimated delay effect shows the emissions impact of an industry-wide reduction in flight delays. The regression model is generated from a theoretical framework.     

Drivers of airline loyalty: Evidence from the business travelers in China

This paper examines the key factors that determine business traveler loyalty toward full-service airlines in China. Based on literature review and panel interview, ten airline attributes under three categories were derived: (a) operational factors: safety, punctuality, and aircraft; (b) competitive factors: frequency of flights, schedule, frequent flyer program, ticket price, and reputation; and (c) attractive factors: in flight food & drinks and in flight staff service. We surveyed 2000 Chinese business travelers on domestic flights, obtaining 462 usable questionnaires. Hierarchical regression analysis reveals that reputation, in-flight service, frequent flyer program, and aircraft have the greatest influence in driving airline loyalty.     

Management of airport congestion through slot allocation

The lack of airport slots (the time allocated for an aircraft to land or take off), particularly at airports which experience congestion, have reached unmanageable proportions in recent years. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) records that, by the end of 1997, there were 132 slot controlled international airports. The World of Civil Aviation, 1997–2000. ICAO Circular 273-AT/113, p. 12 (118 year round and 14 during peak seasons). Between 1989 and 1998 the reported number of commercial aircraft in service increased by about 60% from 11,253 to 18,139 aircraft. In 1998, 1463 jet aircraft were ordered, compared with 1309 in 1997, and 929 were delivered compared with 674 aircraft in 1997. In 1998, the total scheduled traffic carried by airlines of the 185 Contracting States of ICAO amounted to a total of about 1462 million passengers and about 26 million tonnes of freight. These figures¹ are reflective of the rapidly increasing frequency of aircraft movements at airports, calling for drastic management of airport capacity. To cope with the demand, airlines are forming strategic alliances with themselves by utilizing such commercial tools as franchising, leasing and interchange of aircraft. The management of airport capacity through slot allocation is a critical consideration for the world aviation community. This article analyses the problem and discusses various issues related thereto.     

The market development of aviation biofuel: Drivers and constraints

Aviation biofuel is technically viable and nearing the commercial stage. In the last ten years, biofuels have moved from relative obscurity to a point where certain types of fuel have become fully certified for commercial use in up to 50% blends with standard jet fuel and commercial partnerships between airlines and biofuel producers are being established. Yet despite numerous successful test flights, aviation biofuels have yet to become widely commercialised. Drawing on the findings of in-depth interviews with leading global aviation biofuel stakeholders undertaken between October and December 2011, this paper identifies and examines the perceived factors that are affecting the market development of biofuels for aviation. The paper illustrates that market development is being driven by the combined effects of rising jet fuel prices, the potential future impact of emissions legislation and concerns about fuel (in)security. However, commercialisation is being constrained by high production costs, limited availability of suitable feedstocks, uncertainty surrounding the definition of the sustainability criteria, and a perceived lack of both national and international political and policy support for aviation biofuel. The implications of these findings for commercial aviation and the future development of global market for aviation biofuel market are discussed.     

Aviation insurance and the implementation of the small aircraft transportation system

Aviation insurance is a unique field from a business, legal, and regulatory standpoint. Issues such as risk management, contracts, and liability raise particular challenges within this highly specialized market. The implementation of the small aircraft transportation system (SATS), as envisioned by NASA and its industry and academic partners entails a thorough analysis of aviation insurance to determine whether the current market structure could support this major policy initiative. In this paper, we investigate the impact of the current legal, regulatory, and market environments on the implementation and development of SATS. The primary goal is to determine what obstacles these conditions would raise vis-à-vis SATS’ implementation. We also seek to identify strategies, alternatives, and regulatory policies that would help achieve a successful transition to a modern, efficient, and fully developed market for small aircraft transportation services.     

The emission reduction potentials of First Generation Electric Aircraft (FGEA) in Finland

Under the looming climate crisis, aviation needs to find new solutions to cut its greenhouse gas emissions. One pathway towards zero emissions is the use of electric aircraft. While current battery technology will not allow for medium and long-haul flights at full capacity, on short-haul routes First Generation Electric Aircraft (FGEA) could play a significant role in the near future. Current FGEA under development could carry 9–19 passengers on distances of 400–1046 km by 2025. This study focuses on the emissions reduction potentials of FGEA in Finland. It compares the carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂-eq) emissions and real travel times (RTT) from door-to-door of FGEA on 47 routes with existing aircraft, train and car transport modes, as well as with proposed high-speed rail (HSR) and electric vehicle implementation. The study found that replacing all existing aircraft with FGEA can clearly be recommended as it would result in a reduction of CO₂-eq emissions and RTT. Existing cars should only be replaced by FGEA on routes beyond 170 km. The replacement of existing trains by FGEA under the current energy mix is not recommended. However, once electricity could be provided from renewable energy sources exclusively, it would become feasible to replace existing trains on distances beyond 170 km and HSR beyond 400 km with FGEA.     

Investigations on the distribution of air transport traffic and CO2 emissions within the European Union

This study analyses the structure of air traffic and its distribution among the different countries in the European Union, as well as traffic with an origin or destination in non-EU countries. Data sources are Eurostat statistics and actual flight information from EUROCONTROL. Relevant variables such as the number of flights, passengers or cargo tonnes and production indicators (RPKs) are used together with fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions data. The segmentation of air traffic in terms of distance permits an assessment of air transport competition with surface transport modes.The results show a clear concentration of traffic in the five larger countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK), in terms of RPKs. In terms of distance the segment between 500 and 1000 km in the EU, has more flights, passengers, RTKs and CO₂ emissions than larger distances. On the environmental side, the distribution of CO₂ emissions within the EU Member States is presented, together with fuel efficiency parameters. In general, a direct relationship between RPKs and CO₂ emissions is observed for all countries and all distance bands. Consideration is given to the uptake of alternative fuels. Segmenting CO₂ emissions per distance band and aircraft type reveals which flights contribute the most the overall EU CO₂ emissions. Finally, projections for future CO₂ emissions are estimated, according to three different air traffic growth and biofuel introduction scenarios.     

The benefits of tankering considering cost index flying and optional refuelling stops

This work presents the application of a fuel tankering strategy to an airline considering cost index flying and the possibility of using intermediate optional refuelling stops. The tankering solution was based on integer linear programming algorithm using a network modelling strategy. Two methodologies have been used to calculate mission performance according to the aircraft cost index, the first is the complete method where every flight phase (climb, cruise and descent) are optimized according to the cost index. This methodology has the disadvantage of being a slow process as the optimization of every flight leg is time consuming. The second approach is a simplified method, which is based on the Breguet equation and has the advantage of being a quick solution for an initial tankering assessment analysis. A comparison is made between these two methodologies on a simulated multi-stage flight mission demonstrating the validity of this simplified approach. The benefits of a tankering flight using cost index and refuelling stops are illustrated by a study case of a network linking six airports and seventeen optional refuelling stops with different fuel costs. The results from the optimized flight route show a 3% cost reduction at the specific multi stage mission example when compared to a more traditional dispatch approach without the use of the fuel tankering strategy.     

An Exploratory analysis of flight delay propagation in China

Delay propagation is the flight departure delay caused by the arrival delay of pre-segment flight. Chinese airline market has suffered very poor on-time performance (OTP) in recent years. It is, however, unclear whether delay propagation prevails as one major source for such problem. This study first aims to empirically quantify delay propagation in the Chinese airline market. Specifically, we shed light on heterogenous levels of delay propagations across different airports and airlines. Then, the distinct delay propagation patterns in China are also discussed and compared with other developed airline markets (e.g., the US and Europe). Our estimation is based on OTP data for over 12 million Chinese flights covering the 2015–2017 period. Specifically, it is found that 10 min arrival delay of pre-segment flight within 1 hr before the departure lead to an average of 7.49 mins delay propagation for subsequent departure flight. Arrival delay of earlier pre-segments (1–2 and 2–3 hr before the departure) leads to much less delay propagation, due to longer ground buffer. Chinese airlines arrange longer ground and flight buffer than that of the US airlines to prevent the delay propagation from accumulating along the subsequent flights in a day. Thus, unlike the US market, delay propagation is not the major reason for poor OTP in China. In addition, delay propagation is less prevailing at the Chinese hub airport. This is because China has relied on point-to-point network, which does not require sophisticated schedule coordination. And the local passengers at these Chinese hub airports have higher time value such that the Chinese airlines also try to improve OTP at these hub airports to better serve these lucrative but time-sensitive local passengers. Unlike the European LCCs, Spring Airlines, the largest low-cost carrier (LCC) in China, outperforms major full-service carriers (FSCs) in controlling delay propagation. This finding may also apply to other Northeast Asian LCCs sharing common operational characteristics as Spring Airlines. Last, we find that airlines purposely tolerate moderate departure delays of up to 15 min, which is the threshold that defines delays, no matter whether the pre-segment flight arrives late or on-time. The relevant policy and managerial implications are also discussed.     

The evaluation of Istanbul airspace design from the perspective of complexity and safety

The approach, descent, and climb phases of flights in terminal maneuvering areas (TMAs) are some of the critical parts of a flight in which more than half of accidents happen. For an ANSP (Air Navigation Service Provider), to fulfill the responsibility with a high-quality service degree while maintaining safety, these difficult areas should be designed carefully and equipped with the most efficient procedures. Point merge system (PMS), which is defined as a systemized method for sequencing arrival flows, is launched in Istanbul's new TMA (LTFM TMA) being designed by DHMI (Devlet Hava Meydanları Isletmesi) to improve safety and efficiency. In this paper, the airspace complexity is based on adjusted density and structural index, and safety indicators. To investigate the effects of the radical changes made in re-organized LTFM TMA on the safety issue in comparison with the previous terminal maneuvering area, LTBA TMA, six months' data consisting of 75215 arrival and departure flights are used. Results reflect that the LTFM TMA, one of the world's busiest terminal airspaces, has statistically significantly lower scores in terms of conflict numbers per aircraft, complexity metrics, adjusted density, the hour of interactions, and flight hours than LTBA TMA. Lastly, there exists no longer a significant relationship between conflict types and complexity after launching the new design and structure.