Spatial structure and network behaviour of strategic airline groups: A comparison between Europe and the United States

The Gini-index has gained in legitimacy when measuring traffic distributions of air traffic as compared to other more established measures, such as Herfindahl's. In order to render the index more meaningful for policy-makers, a partial decomposition into strategic groups of airlines along distinct geopolitical scopes of air traffic is suggested. Air traffic across airports is considered an aggregate of complex networks that are subject to multiple constraints, such as geopolitics or technology. A multi-layered analytic approach accounts for network operators as economic agents that behave in strategic ways within these constraints. Our approach allows for comparing traffic distributions in Europe with that of the US and, in particular, introduces a normative component by isolating patterns in airlines’ strategies that are likely to induce different degrees of spatial concentration and balanced traffic distributions within these common markets.     

Spillover effects of the development constraints in London Heathrow Airport

In this article we assess the growth impact of London Heathrow’s development constraints on other airports in the UK. To test the relationship we use a two-stage methodology yielding an estimate of a congestion spillover effect. Our data are passenger traffic from 1990 to 2012 containing both intercontinental and European air traffic. For intercontinental air traffic, our results show high congestion spillover effect between Heathrow and Gatwick airports, and significant but lesser effect to Stansted airport. We also find significant congestion spillover effects from Heathrow to the spatially more distant Manchester and Birmingham airports, showing the extensive spatial impact of Heathrow’s development constraints. For European air traffic, controlling for low-cost air carrier growth, only two airports show significant congestion spillover effects: Gatwick and London City Airports. Illustrating that low-cost carriers do not operate from Heathrow, so its limitations cannot affect the predominant low-cost air traffic in other airports. The novel methodology we present in this paper can be applied to congestion research in general to assess regional and modal spills within networks.     

The determinants of air passenger traffic at Turkish airports

Investigating the determinants of air passenger traffic has become commonplace. In contrast with most previous publications, this paper investigates these determinants in an emerging country, Turkey, at the provincial level between 2004 and 2014. We find that GDP/capita, population, distance to alternative airports, tourism, leading cities, and international migrations all support more air traffic. Furthermore, market concentration is associated with less traffic, and the presence of academics with more traffic. Mapping models' residuals suggest catchment areas, surface transport options, domestic migrations and (geo)politics could also matter. Accordingly, it appears the determinants of Turkey's air passenger traffic do not differ from those of developed economies. The results also suggest new airports should be built based on the aforementioned factors.     

Customer issues related to limited air connectivity

Air access can be crucial for regional economic development, especially when global industries are involved. However, air traffic generates negative impacts, such as noise and air pollution that can lead to politically motivated calls to reduce air traffic. This paper investigates customer issues and potential responses of frequent flyers to non-market-driven limitations on air transport. Based on a survey conducted at Zurich International Airport we show that frequent air travelers tend to be more senior and to work in industries that involve travel outside of the worker's country of origin. Consequently, they are more critical of potential restrictions on air travel.     

Investigations on the distribution of air transport traffic and CO2 emissions within the European Union

This study analyses the structure of air traffic and its distribution among the different countries in the European Union, as well as traffic with an origin or destination in non-EU countries. Data sources are Eurostat statistics and actual flight information from EUROCONTROL. Relevant variables such as the number of flights, passengers or cargo tonnes and production indicators (RPKs) are used together with fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions data. The segmentation of air traffic in terms of distance permits an assessment of air transport competition with surface transport modes.The results show a clear concentration of traffic in the five larger countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK), in terms of RPKs. In terms of distance the segment between 500 and 1000 km in the EU, has more flights, passengers, RTKs and CO₂ emissions than larger distances. On the environmental side, the distribution of CO₂ emissions within the EU Member States is presented, together with fuel efficiency parameters. In general, a direct relationship between RPKs and CO₂ emissions is observed for all countries and all distance bands. Consideration is given to the uptake of alternative fuels. Segmenting CO₂ emissions per distance band and aircraft type reveals which flights contribute the most the overall EU CO₂ emissions. Finally, projections for future CO₂ emissions are estimated, according to three different air traffic growth and biofuel introduction scenarios.     

An empirical assessment of Dutch citizens' preferences for spatial equality in the context of a national transport investment plan

This study presents empirical insights into Dutch citizens' preferences for spatial equality in the context of decision-making regarding the composition of a national transport investment plan. To the best of our knowledge, our study is the first study worldwide which empirically investigates citizens' preferences for the spatial distribution of benefits accruing from a transport investment plan. We conducted two Stated Choice experiments: one involving an investment plan for travel time savings, the other involving an investment plan for traffic safety. Our results show that in the context of travel time savings, a vast majority of citizens has a strong preference for spatial equality. When the investment program involves traffic safety improvements, the share of citizens that has a preference for spatial equality is considerably smaller. Specifically, using a Latent class discrete choice analysis we identified distinct segments. The first segment has a very strong preference for the investment program having the largest total reduction in traffic deaths; the second segment assigns a substantial value to an equal distribution of reductions of traffic deaths across the Netherlands. Highly educated citizens are found to have a relatively strong preference for spatial equality as compared to low educated citizens. Contrary to our expectations, explanatory variables such as political orientation, income, car ownership and region of residence do not appear to associate with citizens' preferences for spatial equality.     

The geographic concentrations of air traffic and economic development: A spatiotemporal analysis of their association and decoupling in Brazil

This paper examines the evolution of the geographic concentration of the Brazilian air transport network with a focus on its determinants and possible detachments from the spatial patterns of socioeconomic activity. We develop an econometric framework employing and contrasting the results of Gini, Herfindahl-Hirschman and Theil indexes, with and without normalisation to account for economic and demographic spatial dynamics. Our results suggest that the spatial dynamics of the air network and that of the country's economy and population are strongly tied for the majority of the considered determinants. However, we find suggestive evidence that the time trend after deregulation has produced some asymmetries in the evolution of these dimensions. As such, our analysis presents some implications for airline network planning and regulators, as it offers additional information to be considered for the understanding of extra-economic and extra-demographic impacts which may be inducive of significant changes in air transport markets.     

A zonal level safety investigation of pedestrian crashes in Riyadh,Saudi Arabia

In the recent decade, walking has been encouraged as an active mode of transportation, which could reduce congestion and air pollution and also improve community health. However, pedestrians are more vulnerable to traffic crashes compared with other road users, especially in developing countries such as Saudi Arabia. This paper examines the association among traffic volume, land-use, socio-demographic and roadway characteristics factors, and the frequency of pedestrian crashes based on macro-level safety analysis using data from Riyadh, the Capital of Saudi Arabia. Two Bayesian spatial Poisson-lognormal models for total and severe pedestrian crashes are developed in this study. The results show that the factors that affect total pedestrian crash occurrence are different from those affecting severe pedestrian crash. Several implications for pedestrian safety policies in Riyadh are suggested based on the results.     

An empirical analysis of Canadian international air policy: effects of dual carrier designation and partial liberalization

This paper assesses the impact on air traffic of Canada's policy of allowing two Canadian flag carriers (dual-designation) to operate in select Canadian international markets. The secondary objective is to assess the effect of Canada's partially liberalized bilateral air services agreements. Using panel data covering Canada's 33 bilateral markets over the 1982–1994 period, we find the following results: (a) dual designation/operation of Canadian carriers in a country-pair market increases total traffic volumes in the market as well as increases the combined passenger volume and market share of Canadian carriers, and (b) Canada's partially liberalized bilateral air services agreements have significantly increased air traffic in those country-pair markets.Two policy implications follow from this research. First, Air Canada's recent merger with Canadian Airlines is expected to have a significant negative impact on total traffic volumes as well as on Canadian carrier traffic volumes and market shares on the country-pair markets both Air Canada and Canadian served previously. Second, not only the US style full liberal bilaterals or open skies, but also partial liberalization of bilateral markets Canada adopted appears to generate consumer welfare benefits.     

Bicycle equity in Brazil: Access to safe cycling routes across neighborhoods in Rio de Janeiro and Curitiba

In many Latin American cities, rapid motorization and population growth have resulted in unprecedented urban transportation challenges, with lower income populations disproportionately facing constraints to mobility as well as externalities like air pollution, traffic collisions, and the impacts of climate change. The construction of bicycle lane networks has been identified as an effective tool for increasing citizen's mobility and accessibility as well as combating the effects of motorization, but in cities where bicycle lane networks exist, it is not known if they have benefited different income groups equally. This paper assesses the extent to which bicycle lane provisioning has been equitable among neighborhoods in Rio de Janeiro and Curitiba. Both cities were found to have more than twice the supply of bicycle lanes in the wealthiest quintile than the lowest income quintile relative to area and population. A network analysis using a Level of Traffic Stress classification to categorize roads found that wealthier areas have more commercial areas accessible along safer cycling routes. Implications for cycling policy and future research are discussed.     

A review of spatial localization methodologies for the electric vehicle charging infrastructure

With view to the high share of the transport sector in total energy consumption, e-mobility should play an important role within the transition of the energy systems. Policymakers in several countries consider electric vehicles (EV) as an alternative to fossil-fueled vehicles. In order to allow for the development of EV, the charging infrastructure has to be set up at locations with high charging potential, identified by means of various criteria such as demand density or trip length. Many methodologies for locating charging stations (CS) have been developed in the last few years. First, this paper presents a broad overview of publications in the domain of CS localization. A classification scheme is proposed regarding modeling theory and empirical application; further on, models are analyzed, distinguishing between users, route or destination centricity of the approaches and outcomes. In a second step, studies in the field of explicit spatial location planning are reviewed in more detail, that is, in terms of their target criteria and the specialization of underlying analytical processes. One divergence of these approaches lies in the varying level of spatial planning, which could be crucial depending on the planning requirements. It is striking that almost all CS locating concepts are proposed for urban areas. Other constraints, such as the lack of extensive empirical EV traffic data for a better understanding of the driving behavior, are identified. This paper provides an overview of the CS models, a classification approach especially considering the problem’s spatial dimension, and derives perspectives for further research.     

Minimum delay or maximum efficiency? Rising productivity of available capacity at airports: Review of current practice and future needs

Around the world airports are facing capacity constraints more and more everyday, generally the runway capacities are restricted by governments and airports are unable to accept additional aircrafts. Technological improvements can decrease the necessity of policy limitations in terms of noise and air pollution. Rapidly increasing numbers of traffic developed severe scarce capacity, congestion and delay problems and the capacity that is available, needs to be allocated as efficiently as possible. Airport capacity can be allocated in different ways; administrative capacity management with slot allocation and traffic distribution rules; market-based capacity management with slot auctioning, secondary trading and peak pricing; a combination of both mechanisms; and no regulation mechanism as applied in the USA with the exceptions of busiest airports. The review contains the analysis of current state of practice and the review of relevant research on capacity and slot allocation modelling with policy and demand management perspectives. It targets identification of existing problems, inefficiencies, gaps and requirements in current practice of slot allocation mechanisms, defining options for change in policies to allocate slots more efficiently, transparent and fair by investigating market-based mechanisms. The objective of this paper is to contribute to the ongoing research for improvements to the slot allocation process that can be rationally implemented in practice in order to improve efficiency, fairness and transparency. For that purpose, based on these slot allocation approaches, we provide a critical review of status-quo, literature and current research with demand and congestion management perspectives by considering overall social welfare, airline and airport surplus, passenger welfare and explore hypothetical, computational and practical challenges that have arisen from cross-disciplinary methodologies.     

Correlation analysis of day-to-day origin-destination flows and traffic volumes in urban networks

The trip patterns on an urban network can be represented by two main variables: origin-destination flows (OD flows), defined as the number of trips between two locations over a given time period, and traffic volumes, defined as the number of vehicles that cross a street over a given time interval. Past research on the dynamic of traffic assignment and OD estimation suggested that the traveler's decisions vary on a day-to-day basis and that their most recent decisions may affect their current travel decisions. Based on these assumptions, this study analyzed the autocorrelation of a set of day-to-day series of traffic volumes and OD flows generated from a large collection of traffic sensors, identifying the data's correlation structure over different locations and OD pairs in an urban network. To this end, a method for data treatment of the 2017 dataset from the traffic monitoring system of Fortaleza, Brazil, was employed, which consisted in the following major steps: data cleaning due to equipment failure, definition of traffic profiles for typical and atypical months, definition of daily traffic periods, selection of suitable devices to obtain OD flows, and detection of outliers in the time series. The traffic profiles and the daily traffic periods were defined by applying clustering techniques. The analysis of autocorrelation was performed after controlling for seasonal effects in the data by applying regression analysis. This study contributes to understand how the dynamic of trip patterns varies over space due to the spatial distribution of the city's activities and the network's spatial centrality. The analysis of 144 sets of traffic volumes throughout 2017 suggests that the autocorrelation of traffic volumes should be higher in congested central areas where multiple options of route are available. It seems that, for large congested networks, which present many uncertain factors (e.g., accidents, variable weather, multiple paths, etc.), part of the users do not have complete knowledge of the network's performance, and must rely on experience and habit to decide their routes, especially at more centralized locations of the network. The analysis of serial correlation in the series of sample OD flows between regions showed that the city's central area, where more commercial and service-related activities take place, seems to influence the dynamic of OD flows, probably due to the occurrence of more non-commuting trips to the central area of the city.     

A multi-objective genetic algorithm approach to design optimal zoning systems for freight transportation planning

This paper contributes to the existing research on freight transportation, spatial and land use planning by investigating an improved spatial aggregation technique to delineate desirable freight traffic analysis zones. Zoning is a process of spatially aggregating several predefined basic spatial units (BSUs) into multiple zones. It plays a vital role in the transportation planning and decision-making process and is well-documented as the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP). MAUP involves aggregating BSUs to obtain optimal zones satisfying specific criteria and constraints. This paper proposes an improved spatial aggregation methodology to develop a freight traffic analysis zone system by applying the multiobjective optimization concept using a genetic algorithm. The decision variables, namely, (i) Freight trip density; (ii) Number of establishments; (iii) Employment density; and (iv) Compactness, are chosen to represent the elements of freight, passenger traffic, and land use. The problem is formulated as a multiobjective network partitioning problem. The four objectives aim to create zones with better homogeneity and compactness. It is solved using a genetic algorithm with a weighted distance metric approach to prioritize the four objectives. Results show that zones resulting from the improved methodology are superior to the existing zones in terms of homogeneity of decision variables and compactness. The findings are expected to help the decision-making process of urban, transportation, and land-use planners in selecting appropriate freight traffic zone delineation strategies for a given region.     

Air travel for private purposes. An analysis of airport access,income and environmental concern in Switzerland

As air travel is considered a relevant area of action to mitigate climate change, it is important to know its determinants. The present study examines socio-demographic, spatial and attitudinal predictors of air travel for private purposes. The analyses are based on the Swiss Environmental Survey 2007 and a subsequent computation of the respondents' environmental impact, as well as spatial data.A lognormal hurdle model indicates that persons with higher environmental concern are less likely to travel by air and if they still do, they travel less. While political orientations do not affect whether a person travels by air, the results indicate that among those who do fly, respondents voting for the Green Party cause lower emissions than those opting for other left or center parties. Furthermore, higher incomes are associated with more air travel whereas living with children is associated with less air travel. Airport access is related to air travel in the sense that living closer to airports, in particular to large ones, is correlated to more air travel. The result is robust to alterations of the accessibility measure and also upholds when population density is controlled for.     

The politics of flying: aeromobile frictions in a mobile city

This article joins recent calls for greater attention to be paid to the politics of mobility. In particular, it examines how air transport is not only experienced inequitably among different social groups, but is also an activity whose access and opportunities are geographically distributed in uneven ways. Using Singapore as a candidate and foil to reflect on this issue, this paper interrogates how three ‘international’ legislative frameworks—air traffic rights, air navigation rules, and climate change initiatives—have variously limited the city-state’s potential to ‘move’ at different stages of its flying career. Despite the city-state’s widely-acclaimed aviation success, this paper demonstrates how it remains subject to the geopolitical actions of more dominant players, residing interstitially between being at the vanguard, and at the peripheries of global air traffic. It is suggested that further interrogations on how particular transport practices and configurations become salient in the world are needed.     

An economic–geographic assessment of the potential for a new air transport hub in post-Gaddafi Libya

Post-war Libya is faced with the challenge of adopting an air transport strategy for the future. One issue is how to address projects inaugurated under the Gaddafi government, such as the terminal extension at Tripoli International Airport. Additionally, the state-owned Afriqiyah Airlines had been establishing a niche hub in Tripoli before the 2011 war, but this development has subsequently been stalled.Against this background, we analyse the prospects of an air transport hub operation in Libya, focusing on traffic between Africa and Europe, from a bird’s-eye economic–geographic view. First, a literature review is undertaken to identify general success factors for air transport hubs. Second, a weighted average distance penalty (WADP) indicator is developed and applied to Tripoli as a potential hub location. This indicator considers all 4755 O&Ds between Europe and Africa with more than 100 passengers in 2012. For sensitivity reasons, alternative WADPs are estimated for the 3209 traffic flows not including North Africa and for (forecasted) future air traffic demand in 2020. The results for Tripoli International Airport are benchmarked against competing hub locations, such as Algiers, Cairo, and the major European airports. We conclude by discussing the implications of the current and anticipated future security and economic situation in the country.     

Spatial evolution of airport traffic and air transport liberalisation: the case of Greece

This paper explores the evolution of airport passenger traffic in Greece over the period 1978–2006. The country is a member of the European Common Aviation Area, but despite air transport liberalisation, spatial concentration of traffic and asymmetry remain high and have not decreased significantly over time. Greece is still short of traffic generated by low-cost carriers especially outside the main metropolitan airports. The paper argues that further dispersion of traffic could be possible primarily in the mainland if low-cost carriers decide to dynamically enter the Greek market. Potential benefits for regional and tourism development should induce policy makers to work towards this direction.     

Planning for balanced growth in Chinese air traffic: A case for statistical mechanics

This paper identifies drivers of variations within air traffic systems highlighting inefficient mechanisms that can lead to system sub-optimality. Domestic air traffic in China is used as a case study. Airports need to respond to local demands with airlines that control parts of the system as agents. The relationship between the agent's behavior and system-wide variations in traffic movements shows how the collective behavior of a relatively few agents can disproportionately influence the system-wide traffic distribution.     

Increasing the resilience of air traffic networks using a network graph theory approach

Air traffic networks are essential to today’s global society. They are the fastest means of transporting physical goods and people and are a major contributor to the globalisation of the world’s economy. This increasing reliance requires these networks to have high resilience; however, previous events show that they can be susceptible to natural hazards. We assess two strategies to improve the resilience of air traffic networks and show an adaptive reconfiguration strategy is superior to a permanent re-routing solution. We find that, if traffic networks have fixed air routes, the geographical location of airports leaves them vulnerable to spatial hazard.