Annual average daily traffic estimation in England and Wales: An application of clustering and regression modelling

Collection of Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) is of major importance for a number of applications in road transport urban and environmental studies. However, traffic measurements are undertaken only for a part of the road network with minor roads usually excluded. This paper suggests a methodology to estimate AADT in England and Wales applicable across the full road network, so that traffic for both major and minor roads can be approximated. This is achieved by consolidating clustering and regression modelling and using a comprehensive set of variables related to roadway, socioeconomic and land use characteristics. The methodological output reveals traffic patterns across urban and rural areas as well as produces accurate results for all road classes. Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Random Forest (RF) are found to outperform the traditional Linear Regression, although the findings suggest that data clustering is key for significant reduction in prediction errors.     

Influences of rural built environment on travel mode choice of rural residents: The case of rural Sichuan

China has entered a stage in which new rural construction and urbanization are rapidly developing. Considerable changes are occurring in rural China, and the built environment is different from that in the past; such difference directly influences the travel mode choice of rural residents. However, our knowledge on how the rural built environment influences the travel mode choice of rural residents in China remains limited. To fill this gap, this study combines on-site measurement methods, geographic information system (GIS) technology, and activity diary survey to obtain basic data regarding the built environment and the daily activities of rural residents. The multinomial logit (MNL) model is used to explore the relationship between the rural built environment and the travel mode choice of rural residents. Results show that building density significantly positively affects private car trips. This finding challenges earlier urban built environment research due to the considerable gap between rural and urban areas. An increase in road density increases the travel frequency of electric bicycles and motorcycles. Accessibility perception and preferences positively affect the probability of choosing to walk. Safety and neighborhood harmony perception positively affect the travel frequency of motorcycles and private cars. Rural residents who prefer a safe living environment are likely to choose walking for their daily travel. Despite the considerable achievements in the construction of rural roads, the frequency of public transportation remains low for rural residents. Therefore, additional attention should be given to the investment and construction of public transport facilities during rural urbanization.     

The factors in residents' mobility in rural towns of China: Car ownership,road infrastructure and public transport services

The improvement of rural people's mobility in developing countries has informed many policies. Still, debates remain on which policies are efficient, for instance, building more roads, providing public transport or promoting car ownership. The empirical evidence for these debates at the national level remains scarce. As a result, this paper aims to provide fresh evidence for discussions by examining residents' mobility in China using nationwide survey data with 12,524 respondents from 119 rural towns. The results of the analysis show car ownership is the most significant factor influencing rural people's mobility than other factors. Higher car ownership relates to a higher travel frequency to counties or cities. Other kinds of transport vehicles (i.e. electric cars, motorcycles and electric bikes) also have positive but relatively weaker impacts on rural mobility. For public transport, it is more accessible to access bus stops, which encourages travel to higher-order centres rather than increasing the frequency of county bus services. The accessibility of high-quality road systems tends to have a negative influence and has combined effects with levels of local services. People from towns with insufficient local services and poor access to highways travel the most frequently to higher-order centres. This study highlights the critical role of road investments and car ownership enhancement policies in improving mobility. Moreover, this study also underscores the supplemental role of public transport services given the current low car ownership rates in rural towns of China and the global consensus on sustainable green transport development. It highlights the importance of engaging eco-friendly and locally adaptive transport alternatives, such as electric cars and electric bikes. It also calls for a rational distribution of bus stops and more flexible, convenient, and physically accessible public transport and carshare modes in rural China.     

How large is the gap between present and efficient transport prices in Europe?

In this paper, we analyse the gap between present transport prices and efficient transport prices. Efficient transport prices are those prices that maximise economic welfare, including external costs (congestion, air pollution, accidents). The methodology is applied to six urban and interregional case studies using one common optimal pricing model. The case studies cover passenger as well as freight transport and cover all modes. We find that prices need to be raised most for peak urban passenger car transport and to a lesser extent for interregional road transport. Optimal pricing results for public transport are more mixed. We show that current external costs on congested roads are a bad guide for optimal taxes and tolls: the optimal toll that takes into account the reaction of demand is often less than one third of the present marginal external cost.     

The impacts of road tolling: A review of Norwegian experience

Road tolling has been used extensively for funding of national roads in Norway since 1982. The article, which is primarily based on review of literature, identifies the impacts of tolling in four key policy areas: economic efficiency, regional development, regional redistribution and democracy. Toll financing may change the ranking of projects but does hardly reduce construction costs. The recurrent budget has been quite stable and toll revenues therefore represent net additional resources for road investment. Regionally, tolling has led to a shift of road investments to more central areas. Tolling has increased local political influence compared to national influence.     

Evaluating rail transit benefits: A comment

Several recent articles criticize urban rail transit investments on grounds that they are ineffective at reducing traffic congestion and financially wasteful. This commentary challenges that view. It summarizes some of the findings of more detailed analyses of transit benefits and suggests that there is abundant evidence that high quality, grade-separated transit does reduce urban traffic congestion, and that urban transit improvements can be cost effective investments when all economic impacts are considered.     

Transportation and recreation: a case study of visitors driving for pleasure at Acadia National Park

Automobiles and roads are as much of a way of experiencing national parks as they are a means of conveyance. This study examines experiential aspects of transportation on Acadia National Park’s primary scenic road – Ocean Drive. Interviews with vehicle-based road users were conducted to identify indicators to measure and manage experiential quality on Ocean Drive. Also, a survey was conducted to make comparisons with important variables identified on “transportation-only” urban roads. Results suggest that (1) Ocean Drive is important to park visitors’ experience; (2) experiential indicators for Ocean Drive include vehicle crowding, scenery, and travel freedom/convenience; and (3) experiential aspects of transportation on scenic roads in parks may differ substantially from urban roads. Study findings suggest a need to deliberately and thoughtfully plan and manage for quality recreational experiences on roads in national parks and related areas.     

Planning for an unpredictable future: Transport in Great Britain in 2030

This paper describes a research study, which explores alternative future scenarios for Great Britain in the year 2030 and the implications these have for travel demand and transport provision. Five alternative future scenarios are represented in the GB national transport model and forecasts are obtained for trip making, traffic levels, congestion and emissions in 2030. For all scenarios it is expected that there will be significant traffic growth. Traffic growth is restricted most in scenarios including distance-based road charging on motorways and trunk roads. However, congestion and carbon dioxide emissions are most effectively limited in scenarios with congestion-based road charging, major improvements to urban public transport and investment in new fuel technologies and in improving engine efficiency.     

Mexico's private toll road program reconsidered

Mexico's private toll road program of 1989–1994 is famous both as one of the first and the most ambitious highway privatization programs among the developing countries and as one of the most dramatic failures. In just five years Mexico awarded 52 concessions totaling over 5300 km of toll roads, but as early as 1993 many of the concessions had to be renegotiated and in 1997 the government was forced to takeover 23 of them at an immediate financial cost of billions of dollars. This paper reconsiders the Mexican program and, with the benefit of hindsight, argues that it does not deserve its bad reputation. Although Mexico made some important mistakes in the design of the concessions, many of the highways turned out to be socially worthwhile investments. Moreover, the restructuring of the concessions in 1993–1997 converted many of them into financially profitable projects over the long-term, while the 1997 bailout ended up costing the government little in budget terms.     

Study of vehicle ownership for urban and rural households in India

Private vehicle ownership has been growing in double digits over the last decade. This paper examines the factors determining vehicle ownership for urban and rural households in India. Separate nation-wide disaggregate vehicle ownership models for urban and rural areas in India are developed using readily available consumer expenditure survey dataset. A consumption based proxy variable is assumed to represent economic standard of households. Comparison between vehicle ownership behavior of urban and rural households show that rural households are more inclined to own private vehicle than urban households with same economic standards. Amongst households with regular salaried members, rural households' preference to own two wheelers is greater than that of urban households. While the presence of elderly member or children is considered, urban households showed more preference to own four-wheeler than rural households. As a first nation-wise study to understand the differences in vehicle ownership behavior in urban and rural areas of India, this study provides a lot of useful insights which could be valuable to various stakeholders.     

The London congestion charge: a tentative economic appraisal

Pre-charge and post-charge data (particularly on speed and road usage) in the London congestion charge zone is used to estimate demand and cost curves for road usage. Pre-charge congestion costs are estimated, and shown to be small (0.1% of the area GDP). They are largely (90%) eliminated by the charge, which produces an economic benefit. Charge proceeds are about three times larger than the value of the congestion. Unfortunately, the yearly amortisation and operation costs of the charge system appear to be significantly higher than the economic benefit produced by the system. The London congestion charge, which is a great technical and political success, seems to be an economic failure. It could be defined as mini Concorde.     

The safety impact of land use changes resulting from bypass road constructions

This paper analyzes the effect of bypass construction on road safety, specifically crash rates on bypass segments and in bypassed communities. It further investigates the effect of bypass construction on those communities’ economic development through changes in the number and spatial distribution of businesses and residential development, and examines whether these changes affect the road-safety level. Finally, it evaluates the effect on road safety of various traffic arrangements implemented in such communities. Drawing on an extensive data collection, the study focuses on Arab cities in the Galilee region of Israel, using cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis.The results show that bypass construction does not necessarily reduce overall crash frequencies or crash rates. It merely shifts road crashes from the highways (the bypass roads) to inner roads (bypassed) and from there to local traffic, with no significant reduction. The findings indicate a large variance in the effects of bypass constructions on safety.     

Impacts of adverse weather on Arctic road transport

Arctic regions are geographically peripheral and characterized by cold climate, constantly changing weather conditions and strong seasonal variations. This article examines variations in road traffic volume due to adverse weather in an arctic region, a topic that has received little attention in the transportation literature. The subject of the case study is northern Norway's Saltfjellet mountain pass, which is part of European Highway 6 (Ev6). A succinct econometric structural equation model was used to test hypotheses regarding the impacts of fluctuations in temperature, precipitation and wind speed on passenger and freight traffic volumes. The findings indicate that there was some reduction in traffic volume during adverse weather, particularly with respect to passenger traffic. However, the day-to-day variations in traffic volumes were relatively low at the studied section of road, although it is known that generalized transport costs increase significantly in adverse weather due to delays related to poor driving conditions and closed roads. The studied region is rural with limited access to alternative routes or transport modes, thus making this portion of the road particularly important for the communities in the region. Hence, the road users have few other options than using this high-cost road in order to maintain their activities. The use of standardized parameters in transport models to predict the effect of adverse weather on traffic volume, would not be appropriate in the studied context. However, it is recommended that the benefits of reducing the extra costs that adverse weather impose on traffic are estimated and included in road-project assessment tools to capture the burden and strain imposed on road users. This to ensure that appropriate decisions are made regarding the development and improvement of transportation facilities, particularly in rural areas.     

Travelling together: participatory research methods for disability inclusive road development in Papua New Guinea

Investment in road infrastructure is a recognised approach to poverty reduction in developing countries, through improving community access to essential services, social networks and economic opportunities. But in both developing and developed contexts, very few road projects involve community consultation in road planning. Road planning and assessment rarely differentiate impacts on the lives of those who are most marginalised from economic and social development, such as people with disabilities. This article provides an example of inexpensive and replicable methods that were used in partnership with a national disabled people’s organisation to undertake participatory research in Papua New Guinea on inclusive road development. Four participatory methods – focus group discussions, interviews with road decision-makers, walkabouts, and photo elicitation – are described and evaluated.     

A method for the estimation of greenhouse gas emissions based on road geometric design and its application to South Korea

South Korea has the tenth highest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions worldwide, of which 16% originates from the road sector. Existing estimation methods of road GHG emissions have various limitations, such as low accuracy or the ability to only estimate GHG emissions within a limited area. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a methodology to estimate GHG emissions while considering various geometric designs of roads, including both vertical and horizontal alignment. The developed method is more objective and reliable than existing methodologies that consider only vertical alignment. First, Lamm's theory on travel speed profiles was applied to predict GHG emissions. Then, this study attempted to overcome the limited spatial estimation capacity of existing methods by considering upstream and downstream geometric design parameters simultaneously. Second, this study used the GHG operation mode extracted from the MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES), a modeling system that estimates emissions for mobile sources at the national, county, and project levels for criteria air pollutants, GHGs, and air toxicity. The operation mode includes vehicle type, fuel, and other factors, and is designed to estimate GHG emissions at 1-s intervals. Based on the results of the analysis, the effectiveness of the new method was compared to existing methods using an economic analysis (e.g., cost–benefits from the reduced emissions). This study presents a method for performing sensitive estimations of GHG emissions according to the geometric design of roads, which can be used to collect more accurate data on GHG emissions.     

Modeling AADT on local functionally classified roads using land use,road density,and nearest nonlocal road data

The focus of this research is to model the influence of road, socioeconomic, and land-use characteristics on local road annual average daily traffic (AADT) and assess the model's predictability in non-covered location AADT estimation. Traditional ordinary least square (OLS) regression and geographically weighted regression (GWR) methods were explored to estimate AADT on local roads. Ten spatially distributed counties were considered for county-level analysis and modeling. The results indicate that road density, AADT at the nearest nonlocal road, and land use variables have a significant influence on local road AADT. The GWR model is found to be better at estimating the AADT than the OLS regression model. The developed county-level models were used for estimating AADT at non-covered locations in each county. The methodology, findings, and the AADT estimates at non-covered locations can be used to plan, design, build, and maintain the local roads in addition to meeting reporting requirements. The prediction error is found to be higher at urban areas and in counties with a smaller number of local road traffic count stations. Recommendations are made to account for influencing factors and enhance the local road count-based AADT sampling methodology.     

Rural tourism development in China

This paper provides an overview and brief evaluation of China's rural tourism. Beginning with the form of poverty alleviation through tourism, China's rural tourism has undergone over 20 years of development and exhibited some unique features in its development pattern, scale and business operational models in accordance with China's political, social and economic systems. Government plays a decisive role in developing rural tourism in China. However, rural tourism has been valued mainly as an economic means for rural development during the country's modernisation process. Overlooking rurality as an essential issue in rural tourism may lead development to a wrong direction, which could jeopardise the sustainability of the industry. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Making the connections between transport disadvantage and the social exclusion of low income populations in the Tshwane Region of South Africa

To date, the majority of studies which consider transport from a social exclusion perspective have been conducted in the context of the developed world where both income poverty and lack of transport are relative rather absolute states. In a unique departure from these previous studies, this paper explores the relationship between transport and social disadvantage in the development context, the key difference being that income poverty is absolute and where there is much lower access to both private and public transportation generally. Thus, it seeks to explore whether the concept of social exclusion remains valid, when it is the majority of the population that is experiencing transport and income poverty compared with the minority who do so in advanced economies.The paper is based on a scoping study for the Republic of South Africa Department of Transport (RSA DOT), which primarily involved focus group discussions with a range of socially deprived urban and peri-urban population groups living in the Tshwane region of South Africa. In a second departure from previous studies which consider transport and social disadvantage in the development context, the study takes a primarily urban focus. The rationale for this is that theoretically low income urban settlements do not suffer from the lack of transport infrastructure and motorised transport services in the way that more remote rural areas do. The policy issue is therefore less a question of addressing a deficit in supply and more one of addressing particular aspects of public transit service failure, which are more readily amenable to relatively low cost, manageable, small-scale national and local policy interventions.A primary aim for the study was to reinvigorate cross-government debate of these issues in the hope of breaking South African government’s long-standing and persistent policy inertia in the delivery of equitable and socially sustainable urban transport systems.     

Spatio-temporal evolution of cities and regional economic development in Nepal: Does transport infrastructure matter?

The literature on the New Economic Geography (NEG) suggests that transport cost is a major driving factor for the emergence of core–periphery patterns within a country. However, very few studies have tested this theoretical explanation in the context of transport infrastructure networks in developing countries. This paper takes a closer look at Nepal and tests four expectations that are drawn from the NEG, which highlight different aspects of the formation of core–periphery dynamic as determined by infrastructure quality. The expectations are tested by relating spatial-temporal patterns of road development to the growth and distribution of cities and examining the transport infrastructure contribution to shaping the patterns of regional economic development. We used intercity travel time estimates, based on the design speed of roads, length of sections and pavement type (from 1961 onwards in 10-year segments) as an indicator for the quality of infrastructure (transportation cost). Next, we computed hubness and accessibility indices of cities, defined by means of a gravity model and as a function of transportation cost, to undertake a cross-city comparison. We applied GIS mapping, multiple regression and mediation analysis techniques to relate these transport and accessibility characteristics to spatio-temporal patterns in city size and GDP per capita. Our study broadly confirms the core expectation derived from the NEG that transport improvements facilitate urbanization and that higher urbanization leads to higher regional GDP per capita. Two independent effects were identified in qualification of these overall patterns – the impact of market potential on city primacy and the impact of highly localized, immobile resources on GDP.