Industry characteristics and the law of one price

The paper investigates the law of one price (LOP), using 84 Canada/U.S. manufacturing prices over 1961–1996. We find that while there is a long-run relationship between Canadian and U.S. prices, industries vary in terms of adherence to the LOP. In industries with higher degree of market competition and integration, the correlation between Canadian and U.S. prices becomes stronger.     

Oil prices,stock returns,and exchange rates: Empirical evidence from China and the United States

Employing the diagonal BEKK model as well as the dynamic impulse response functions, this study investigates the time-varying trilateral relationships among real oil prices, exchange rate changes, and stock market returns in China and the U.S. from February 1991 to December 2015. We highlight several key observations: (i) oil prices respond positively and significantly to aggregate demand shocks; (ii) positive oil supply shocks adversely and significantly affect the Chinese stock market; (iii) oil price shocks persistently and significantly impact the trade-weighted US dollar index negatively; (iv) the US and China stock markets correlate positively just as the dollar index and the exchange rate does; (v) a significant parallel inverse relation exists between the US stock market and the dollar and between the China stock market and the exchange rate; and (vi) the Chinese stock market is more volatile and responsive to aggregate demand and oil price shocks than the US stock market in recent years.     

Testing for spatial market integration and law of one price in Turkish wheat markets

This paper examines co-integration models in testing for spatial market integration and the Law of One Price (LOP) for Turkish wheat market. The multivariate co-integration tests show that there is one co-integrating vector in the system which implies that though the markets are integrated, the LOP does not hold. Vector error correction model restrictions tests also show that structural breaks have impacts on the long-run linkage among the prices. These results are important for wheat production policies and for wheat market liberalization considerations in the future.     

New insights into the role of global factors in BRICS stock markets: A quantile cointegration approach

Because of the acceleration in marketization and globalization, stock markets in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) countries are affected by various global factors, for example, oil prices, gold prices, global stock market volatility, global economic policy uncertainty, financial stress, and investor sentiment. This paper offers new insights into the short- and long-run linkages between global factors and BRICS stock markets by applying the quantile autoregressive distributed lags (QARDL) approach. This novel methodology enables us to test short- and long-run linkages accounting for distributional asymmetry. That is, the nonlinear dynamic relationship between the global factors and BRICS stock prices depends on market conditions. Our empirical results show that the effects of gold prices and global stock market volatility on BRICS stock prices are more significant in the long run than in the short run. A decrease in global stock market volatility is associated with higher stock prices, while gold prices demonstrate upward co-movement in dynamic correlations with stock markets. Irrational factors, such as economic policy uncertainty, financial stress, and investor sentiment, play a critical role in the short term, and negative interdependence is dominant. Finally, the rolling-window estimation technique is used to examine time-varying patterns between major global factors and BRICS stock markets.     

House price convergence: Evidence from US state and metropolitan area panels

We study house price convergence in panels of US states and metropolitan areas. Our analysis is centered on three issues. First, we test whether the US house prices are converging over time using log t convergence test by Phillips and Sul (2007). The test results suggest that there is little evidence of overall convergence. The second issue is to investigate the possibility of a convergence club where the cross-sectional dispersion of house prices of the club members decreases over time. We utilize a clustering algorithm and the results support that there is strong evidence of multiple convergence clubs. Finally, we examine the general characteristics of the various convergence and divergence subgroups as well as some important driving forces of convergence clubs. We find that housing supply regulation together with climate are important determinants of convergence club membership.     

Country risk and stock market volatility,predictability, and diversification in the Middle East and Africa

With globalization, an understanding of country risk (political risk (PR), financial risk (FR), and economic risk (ER)) and its impact on stock market return volatility and predictability is important for evaluating direct investment and country selection decisions in globally and regionally diversified portfolios. This paper examines these issues in the context of the Middle East and Africa (MEAF) and analyzes 10 stock markets in the region over the period 1984–1999. After examining volatility and predictability, this paper explains how portfolios of stocks can be formed from these countries in order to achieve mean–variance efficient portfolios. This paper generally finds that country political, financial and economic risks significantly determine stock volatility and predictability. The diversification exercise shows that an international investor can still benefit by diversifying into the stock markets of Middle East and African countries.     

Competitive behavior in Middle East and North Africa banking systems

This paper investigates the degree of market power in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) banking systems where research on competitive conditions is scant. The banking sectors of MENA countries are highly concentrated and they present unique characteristics in terms of ownership, structure and growth potential. The degree of competitiveness is assessed based on the revenue elasticity to input prices approach, and is related to a set of market and contestability indicators. The results show that, except for countries in North Africa where monopolistic conditions are found, the prevailing market structure in MENA banking is mostly monopolistically competitive. In line with the finding on other emerging and developed countries, assuring greater market contestability by allowing more foreign bank participation and reducing activity restrictions on banks is most important to guaranteeing competitiveness in the highly concentrated banking systems of the MENA region.     

The effect of economic policy uncertainty on China’s housing market

This study examines the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and housing price at the macro-level in China as a developing country. The empirical evidence indicates that EPU has a leading effect on China’s housing market. In general, the housing market is prosperous when economic policy is stable and there is a positive relationship between housing price variation and EPU, which means housing market risk grows under unstable economic policies in this developing economy. Moreover, economic policy variation affects low-amplitude changes in housing prices. A variation of policy uncertainty enhances the risk premium of the housing market. By contrast, the level of EPU influences high-amplitude changes in housing prices, which reflects the trend of EPU dominating China's housing market.     

How business transcends politics

The paper states the importance of the free market in combating racial prejudice through the ability to offer compensating price differentials. Required withdrawal of US firms from South Africa would have a negative effect on race relations in South African workplaces.     

Commonality in liquidity among Middle East and North Africa emerging stock markets: Does it really matter?

This study investigates commonality in daily liquidity among 11 emerging stock markets from the Middle East and North Africa from January 2005 to June 2017. First, we test long memory in liquidity in these markets. Second, we select a number of factors eligible to affect liquidity commonality among local, regional and global factors. We find that regional and US factors do not explain liquidity variations in all the markets that exhibit low sensitivity to external factors. Our results are robust to the use of alternative proxies. The analysis in sub-periods confirms our results showing that most markets are not very sensitive to fluctuations and external shocks of liquidity. For international investors, stock markets in the Middle East and North Africa present an opportunity for further diversification, as these markets exhibit weak correlations between them and with the global market with regard to liquidity.     

The role of the world’s major steel markets in price spillover networks: an analysis based on complex network motifs

In recent years, the international steel market has shown increasingly strong cross-regional correlation. To better understand the price trends of various markets, it is necessary to identify their inherent price spillovers. This paper combines a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity Baba–Engle–Kraft–Kroner (GARCH-BEKK) model and complex network motifs to explore the price fluctuations among international steel markets. The study selects steel markets in 12 countries and regions and uses daily data on import and export prices from January 2009 to September 2017 to analyze eight steel products. The results show that spillovers are associated with geographical location, market development, product type and status. Spillovers mostly occur between buyer’s markets; additionally, the Asian market, especially the East Asian market, is in most cases the recipient of spillover, whereas the European Union (EU) market is in most cases the sender of spillover effects. Developed markets have clear spillover effects on emerging markets, sheet steel products have clear spillover effects on profile steel products, and the prices of midstream and downstream products in the industrial chain are the most influenced. This paper examines international steel market relationships from the perspective of price transmission, and the results can help manage and prevent large-scale economic risks.

     

Economic Freedom and Women's Emancipation in the MENA Region

The position of women in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is a complex topic, difficult to comprehend without allowing for socio‐cultural norms, legal frameworks and the global gender context. In thinking about a practical framework for action, the free market perspective is relevant and necessary. However, this alone does not seem to provide a complete answer to the problem of promoting women's economic status. This article makes the case for the importance of market‐friendly, but also gender‐sensitive, policies to promote women's economic freedom and hence women's emancipation in the MENA region.     

以中国—东盟自由贸易区建成为契机,提升德宏沿边开放水平

中国—东盟自贸区通过扩大市场准入、消除贸易投资壁垒,实现双方经济一体化效益的共享。德宏位于连接东亚经济圈、东南亚经济圈、南亚经济圈的结合部,主要面对的是东盟成员缅甸。在中国—东盟自由贸易区建设中具有不可替代的地缘优势。中国—东盟自贸区的制度设计,为提升德宏沿边开放水平提供了机遇,为德宏地缘优势转化为贸易优势,贸易优势转化经济优势搭建了平台。     

Fundamentals, Feedback Trading, and Housing Market Speculation: Evidence from California

Housing market researchers have long suspected that the market for single family homes is not efficient. The apparent predictability in housing prices, at least in the short run, leaves open the possibility of speculative purchases in the housing market. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relative influence of speculative and economic demand on median house price on the Santa Barbara South Coast. An empirical model is presented that allows for decomposition of house price appreciation into that driven by economic and demographic forces and that resulting from speculative demand. The decomposition reveals a speculative bubble in the housing market forming in late 1987 and collapsing in mid 1990.     

Impact of China's currency valuation and labour cost on the US in a trade and exchange rate model

Ricardian dynamic general equilibrium analyses show that under free trade arrangements a low income country with lower wage cost and large endowment of labour has comparative advantage in trade. Efficiency gains from this enhance economic growth and welfare of households simultaneously in both low income and advanced economies. Theoretical predictions are empirically validated here with structural VAR analysis based on quarterly data over the time period 1995:1 to 2009:1 on China's relative wage cost, interest rate differential, real effective exchange rate (REER), relative GDP and the US current account balance. It is shown how the relative prices of labour, capital and the currency affect the economic activity in China and current account balance in the US. With free capital inflows and outflows and restrictions on labour mobility, comparative advantage of China and the trade deficit of the US will both be minimised if China allows real appreciation of the Yuan and complete adjustment in prices. Higher production cost and prices in China could reduce welfare of Chinese households and the trade imbalance of the US, while higher relative GDP of China lowers the current account balance for the US.     

Time-frequency effect of crude oil and exchange rates on stock markets in BRICS countries: Evidence from wavelet quantile regression analysis

This study examines the effects of oil prices and exchange rates on stock market returns in BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, China, India and South Africa) from a time–frequency perspective over the period 2009–2020. We use wavelet decomposition series to develop a threshold rolling window quantile regression to detect time–frequency effects at various scales. The empirical results are as follows. First, our findings confirm that the effects of both crude oil prices and exchange rates on BRICS stock returns are asymmetric. Positive shocks of crude oil have a greater impact on a bull market, whereas negative shocks have a greater impact on a bear market. Second, there is a short-term enhancement effect of crude oil and exchange rate on BRICS stock markets. In addition, volatility in the macro financial environment also exacerbates the impacts of oil prices and exchange rates on the stock market, and these fluctuations are heterogeneous. Overall, these findings provide useful insights for international investors and policy makers.     

Random encounters and information diffusion about product quality

This paper explores how social interactions among consumers shape markets. In a two-country model, consumers meet and exchange information about the quality of the goods. As information spreads, demand evolves, affecting the prices and quantities manufactured by profit-maximizing firms. We show that market prices with informational frictions reach the duopoly price with full information at the limit. However, this convergence can take different paths depending on the size asymmetry between countries. In particular, when the country producing the low-quality good is relatively large, the single market does not immediately turn into a duopoly and can be temporarily trapped in a situation of price instability where no Nash equilibrium in pure (but only in mixed) strategies exists and prices can fluctuate between their monopoly and duopoly levels. It follows that the classical price-reducing effects of international trade may take longer to appear. In view of an intense globalization process, understanding how social meetings affect market outcomes is critical for understanding the performance of international economic integration.     

Dispersion in analysts’ target prices and stock returns

We propose the dispersion in analysts’ target prices as a new measure of disagreement among analysts and a proxy of ex ante stock risk. In contrast to the negative return predictability of analysts’ earnings forecast dispersion but consistent with the risk hypothesis, we document a significant positive relation between the target price dispersion and future stock returns up to 24 months. The next-month return spread between the highest and lowest deciles sorted on the target price dispersion measures can be over 2%. Our findings cannot be explained by the standard risk factors and stock characteristics including the target price revision. Further supporting the risk hypothesis, the target price dispersion is positively related to future stock risk.     

Are the stock and real estate markets integrated in China?

This paper examines the dynamic short-run and long-run co-movement between the real estate and stock markets in China by employing a continuous wavelet method. We use gross domestic product and M2 (broad money supply) as control variables to eliminate the common factors of the two markets and to identify the real nexus between them. The empirical results show that the co-movement between real estate and stock prices is weak in the short run, except during the financial crisis period. Since the stock market is highly volatile, while real estate prices are relatively stable, the two markets are less correlated in the short run. The results also show that real estate prices affect stock prices in the long run, which supports the existence of a credit-price effect in China. Real estate prices remained very high in most time periods. Enterprises and individuals can obtain funds from bank loans to invest in the stock market, thus raising stock prices. These findings indicate that the two markets are generally segmented in the short run but are integrated in the long run. The stabilization of the real estate market is critical for stability in the stock market, but not vice versa. Additionally, investments in the two markets may not provide a high level of risk dispersion in the long run in China.

     

中国在东亚区域经济一体化进程中的现状及战略定位

随着经济全球化的发展和区域经济一体化在全世界的推进,东亚区域经济一体化出现了迅猛发展的态势,中国在此态势下顺应东亚区域经济一体化迅猛发展的潮流,着眼于市场多元化战略,提出了相应的贸易、投资、金融等政策措施,整合国内机制,实现中国在东亚区域经济一体化进程中的总体协调。本文阐述了中国在东亚区域经济一体化进程中的现状、存在的问题并在此基础上提出了相应的战略定位。