The effects of fuel prices and vehicle sales on fuel‐saving technology adoption in passenger vehicles

Although economic theory suggests that both sales and fuel costs affect technology adoption by vehicle manufacturers, there is very little empirical evidence on either effect. We document a strong connection between a vehicle's sales and its energy efficiency. Using a demographics‐driven demand shifter to isolate demand‐side changes in sales, we find that a one standard deviation increase in sales raises efficiency by 0.2%, compared with a mean improvement rate of 1.4% per year between 1997 and 2013. Higher fuel prices also increase technology adoption directly by increasing willingness to pay for fuel cost savings. The results have two implications: manufacturers will continue to focus technological improvements on top selling vehicles; and fuel taxes will have larger effects on technology adoption than fuel economy standards and feebates.     

论EPA燃油经济性计算及改进策略对比分析

汽车燃油经济性是汽车众多基本特性中极其重要的一个指标,如何改进产品油耗策略,调整产品结构是当下各汽车制造企业面临的重大课题。文章针对美国EPA燃油经济性测试运转循环,首先介绍燃油经济性瞬态油耗和平均油耗的计算方法,然后提出4种改进燃油经济性的策略并进行对比分析,确定最优策略,为企业将来的产品升级与更新换代提供依据和参考。     

Proposing effective strategies for meeting an environmental regulation with attainable technology improvement targets

The Japanese government will adopt the CAFE standard after 2020. By using a “modified” slacks-based measure (SBM) model, this study analyzed the technical efficiency of 113 gasoline vehicle models (GVs) and 54 hybrid vehicle models (HVs) sold by Japanese manufacturers in 2016. We also estimated attainable fuel efficiency of specific vehicle models that can be further improved referring to the nearest point on the best practice frontier. The improved CAFE values and standards of the nine automobile manufacturers were calculated. The technology gap from the vehicle technology frontier was more noticeable among gasoline vehicles than among hybrids. Moreover, most automobile manufacturers can achieve the CAFE standard through an effective achievement strategy based on best practice technologies, whereas the others will not achieve the CAFE standard even given a rapid technology innovation beyond the best practice frontiers for GVs and HVs.     

LNG汽车发展现状与前景研究

日益严重的环境问题与能源危机促使人们不断加大对车用发动机替代燃料的研究力度,燃气汽车因其经济性与环保性在替代燃料汽车中备受关注。本文通过对我国LNG汽车产业发展现状分析及发展前景预测,总结了LNG汽车在经济、安全、适用性等方面的发展优势,并最终针对其发展前景提出了自己的看法及建议。     

混合动力车四轮驱动控制策略研究

文章从提高燃油经济性和降低排放的角度出发,确立了以动力输出力矩为主要参数,并以油门踏板和节气门开度的变化率为控制变量的控制策略设计方案,确保发动机始终工作在高效区,从而实现发动机的燃油经济性和低排放。采用内燃机和电机分别单独驱动前后轮的并联式混合动力车,汽车底盘结构紧凑,降低了制造成本,容易实现产业化。     

低碳经济视角下闭环供应链网络优化研究

在低碳经济背景下,研究具有多个供应商、多个制造商、多个消费者市场以及多个回收中心的闭环供应链网络。综合考虑碳减排和废旧产品回收因素,以总运营成本最小化为优化目标,建立混合整数规划模型,从而解决网络节点的建设、节点间运量、运输方式选择、减排技术投资、回收中心选址以及回收中心环保水平等供应链网络资源配置问题。通过lingo12软件对低碳闭环供应链网络进行优化模拟,得到对生产实践有指导作用的结论。     

制造企业服务化转型的商业模式研究——以空中客车为例

商业模式是当今企业核心竞争力形成和发展的关键问题,特别是在制造企业服务化的趋势背景下,如何通过商业模式的转变实现服务化转型是制造企业关注的重点。本文基于国内外制造企业服务化转型的相关研究,以空中客车公司为例进行案例研究,以时间为主线从多维度对其服务化转型过程进行描述和分析;在此基础上构建出制造企业服务化转型的三阶段演化模型,即从技术管理到服务管理再到协同管理,揭示了服务型制造企业的商业模式;最后得出通过高层管理者支持推动和建立外部关系网络拉动来促进服务化转型的启示。     

Exploring competition efficiency of automobile brands: An extensional data envelopment analysis-metafrontier framework

This study integrates metafrontier with bootstrapping to investigate automobile vehicle efficiency. The results are as follows: (1) general cars exhibited the most favorable performance in terms of price, costs, and mileage. (2) Metafrontier efficiency was the highest for general cars, which may be because this automobile type has the highest prevalence. Sports cars had the most favorable group frontier. (3) General cars had the most favorable performance in terms of miles-per-gallon. The conclusions could enhance consumers' green cognition and serve as a reference in purchase decision-making; they can provide manufacturers with directions regarding future product designs to mitigate technology gaps.     

Determining market power exertion between buyers and sellers

Empirical techniques commonly used in industrial organization to measure market power exertion typically assume imperfectly competitive behaviour by firms on only one side of the market. Firms on the other side are assumed to be perfectly competitive. In this paper we extend traditional NEIO methods by developing a method to estimate market power exertion when firms on both sides have potential market power. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we find that the model correctly estimates market power exercised by firms on either or both sides of a market and also correctly estimates firms' technology parameters. When applied to the US leaf tobacco market, findings indicate that cigarette manufacturers exert some monopsony power in purchasing leaf tobacco while producers, organized as a cartel, exhibit no countervailing monopoly market power. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How should heavy-duty trucks be taxed?

This paper develops and implements an analytical framework for estimating optimal taxes on the fuel use and mileage of heavy-duty trucks in the United States, accounting for external costs from congestion, accidents, pavement damage, noise, energy security, and local and global pollution. The analysis allows for endogenous fuel economy, increased auto travel in response to reduced truck congestion, and distinguishes driving by truck type and region. We estimate the optimal (second-best) diesel fuel tax at $1.12 per gallon and implementing it increases welfare by $1.34 billion per annum. Optimizing over both fuel and mileage taxes, and differentiating mileage taxes by vehicle type and region, yields progressively higher welfare gains. The most efficient tax structure involves a diesel fuel tax of 69 cents per gallon and charges on trucks that vary between 7 and 33 cents per mile; implementing this tax structure yields estimated welfare gains of $2.06 billion.     

“金砖国家”创新体系的技术效率与单因素效率评价

基于国家创新体系效率评价的两阶段模型,运用数据包络分析及其改进方法,对“金砖国家”创新体系的技术效率与单因素效率进行全面测度,并与美国等发达国家进行比较分析。研究发现,“金砖国家”研发效率远远低于发达国家水平,科技向经济的转化效率则正在赶超发达国家;两阶段的单因素效率都普遍偏低,尤其是政府研发投入效率与专利产出效率。     

Repeat Purchase amid Rapid Quality Improvement: Structural Estimation of Demand for Personal Computers

This paper estimates a structural model of demand for the personal computer (PC) by repeat purchasers. Taking advantage of a large data set on household-level PC purchases, the econometric model uses variation in PC holdings among PC owners to identify households' marginal values of quality improvements. The analysis only requires data on a cross-section of households along with observed PC offerings over time, and accounts for stock effects, forward-looking behavior, and large amounts of household heterogeneity. The estimates allow us to measure sensitivity to long-term and short-term price and technology changes, as well as consumer welfare changes from technological improvements. The results show a large variation in marginal values for PC quality across households, and that failing to account for forward-looking behavior results in biased estimates and a poorer fit to the data. Incorporating stock effects proves especially important because, for the data used here, the model's parameters are not only biased but also virtually impossible to pin down without them. The results also show that price elasticity is approximately 25% higher in the short term compared to the long term, and technology elasticity is approximately 35% higher in the short term compared to the long term. Furthermore, welfare measurements are significantly underestimated when using a model that does not account for forward-looking behavior. Finally, the model is extended to include first-time purchasers. The results show similar patterns, but should be interpreted with much caution owing to the likely presence of significant unobserved heterogeneity between new purchasers and repeat purchasers.     

Dynamically evaluating the comprehensive efficiency of technological innovation and low-carbon economy in China's industrial sectors

Technological innovation and low-carbon economy are significant for the high-quality development of China's industrial sectors. However, few scholars combine the two stages closely and discuss their coordinated development. This paper establishes an evaluation index system of technological innovation and low-carbon economy in China's industrial sectors. The technological innovation efficiency, low-carbon economy efficiency, and comprehensive efficiency of technological innovation and low-carbon economy are dynamically investigated by the two-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) model and the DEA window analysis with 35 subsectors panel data during 1996–2018. The inter-industrial differences in the technological innovation efficiency and low-carbon economy efficiency are considered, and the influencing factors of the comprehensive efficiency of technological innovation and low-carbon economy are studied by the bootstrap truncation regression. The results show that: (1) The development of the technological innovation and low-carbon economy is uncoordinated, and the low-carbon economy efficiency needs improvement; (2) There is heterogeneous of the technological innovation efficiency and low-carbon economy efficiency in the 35 subsectors; (3) The density of science and technology institutions, and the average enterprises scale are positive to the comprehensive efficiency of technological innovation and low-carbon economy, while excessive reliance on technology introduction has a negative impaction. The corresponding suggestions are provided for promoting technological innovation efficiency and low-carbon economy efficiency of industrial sectors.     

Efficient employment of cohorts of labor in the U.S. economy: An illustration of a method

This paper presents a model for the analysis of efficient labor force participation in the U.S. economy. Ridge regression estimates of the elasticities of cohorts of labor, classified by sex and occupation, are used in conjunction with wage data to illustrate the derivation of efficient allocation of labor cohorts in five economic sectors. These efficient constructs are compared with actual census data for 1960 and 1970. The results, while tentative, show a trend toward more efficient utilization of labor and greater participation by women in the work force.     

Sim-heuristics low-carbon technologies’ selection framework for reducing costs and carbon emissions of heavy goods vehicles

ABSTRACT

UK logistics fleets face increasing competitive pressures due to volatile fuel prices and the small profit margins in the industry. By reducing fuel consumption, operational costs and carbon emissions can be reduced. While there are a number of technologies that can reduce fuel consumption, it is often difficult for logistics companies to identify which would be the most beneficial to adopt over the medium and long terms. With a myriad of possible technology combinations, optimising the vehicle specification for specific duty cycles requires a robust decision-making framework. This paper combines simulated truck and delivery routes with a metaheuristic evolutionary algorithm to select the optimal combination of low-carbon technologies that minimise the greenhouse gas emissions of long-haul heavy goods vehicles during their lifetime cost. The framework presented is applicable to other vehicles, including road haulage, waste collection fleets and buses by using tailored parameters in the heuristics model.     

基于DEA的绿色经济增长核算:以中国地区工业为例

本文构建基于DEA的绿色经济增长核算模型,将考虑非期望产出的劳动生产率变化分解为技术效率变化、技术进步和资本深化。中国地区工业的经验分析表明,与发展水平无关且省际差异大的技术无效率普遍存在;各省工业增长的首要源泉是资本深化,其次是技术进步主导的全要素生产率进步;各省工业劳动生产率增长差异主要源于资本深化差异,其次是技术效率变化差异主导的全要素生产率进步差异;如不考虑非期望产出,会低估资本深化对经济增长的贡献,高估技术进步的贡献,而技术效率变化的贡献可能被高估、低估或无影响。     

我国铁路物流现状及发展趋势的思考

我国加入WTO后，随着经济的快速发展和经济体制改革的不断深入，物流产业出现了加速发展的趋势。现代物流正在逐步代替传统的运输服务和货运代理．以先进的科技信息和快速优质的服务理念．以各种先进快速的交通工具和全新的管理模式为载体进入物流输运市场．成了国民经济中一个重要的组成部分和新的经济增长点。在我国，铁路自身既是一个庞大的产业运输部门．又是社会物流的一个重要支柱产业，它的生产过程对社会物流起着先导作用．因此铁路物流科学的研究和发展被高度关注。     

Impact of Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reduction on the Austrian Economy

A linked econometric input–output (IO) model of the Austrian economy with an energy block is used in this study to assess the sectoral effects of carbon dioxide emissions reduction. The energy block and the other commodities are linked by a partitioned IO model. Energy demand is described using aggregate energy demand equations, by activities and subdemand systems of the translog type for different fuel types. The conversion of energy is modelled using an IO model of the energy sector. Measures for carbon dioxide reduction from detailed expert studies are introduced in the energy model and in the econometric model. The primary impacts are on energy demand, fuel shares and investment in new energy technologies. The simulation results of the partitioned IO model show different impacts on gross output, GDP and employment.     

铁路物流现状与措施

我国加入WTO后,随着经济的快速发展和经济体制改革的不断深入,物流产业出现了加速发展的趋势。现代物流正在逐步代替传统的运输服务货运代理,以先进的科技信息和快速优质的服务理念,以各种先进快速的交通工具和全新的管理模式为载体进入物流运输市场,成了国民经济中一个重要的组成部分和新的经济增长点。在我国,铁路自身既是一个庞大的产业运输部门,又是社会物流的一个重要支柱产业,它的生产过程对社会物流起着先导作用,因此铁路物流科学的研究和发展被高度关注。     

Analysis of technology pathway of China's liquid fuel production with consideration of energy supply security and carbon price

Efforts to provide alternative resources and technologies for producing liquid fuel have recently been intensified. Different levels of dependence on oil imports and carbon prices have a significant impact on the composition of the cost-minimizing portfolio of technologies. Considering such factors, how should China plan its future liquid fuel industry? The model for supporting the technology portfolio and capacity configuration that minimizes the total system cost until 2045 is described in this study. The results obtained for different carbon prices and levels of dependence on oil import indicate that the oil-to-liquid fuel (OTL) will remain dominant in China's liquid fuel industry over the next three decades. If the carbon price is low, the coal-to-liquid fuel (CTL) process is competitive. For a high carbon price, the biomass-to-liquid fuel (BTL) technology expands more rapidly. The results also reveal that developing the BTL and CTL can effectively reduce the oil-import dependency; moreover, a high carbon price can lead to the CTL being replaced with the low-carbon technology (e.g., BTL). Improvement in energy raw material conversion and application of CO₂ removal technologies are also effective methods to control carbon emissions for achieving the carbon emission goals and ultimately emission reduction targets.