2002年经济增长预测与政策建议

2002年的国际经济环境,将是对我国在加入WTO之后能否继续保持持续、快速、健康发展的一次考验.但是,只要我们继续落实各项扩大内需的政策,加大政策的实施力度和适当进行政策的结构调整,积极推动经济中自主性增长因素的扩大,就完全可以弥补外需减少的不利影响.明年,是我国正式加入WTO初期、北京将为举办2008年奥运会做前期准备、党的十六大将胜利召开,这些重大事件都会对经济增长产生积极而有利的影响.据国家统计局预测,"入世"将促进我国GDP每年多增长0.7%到1%;举办奥运会能拉动国民经济每年增长0.3-0.4个百分点.如果我们还能在体制创新、科技创新、经济结构战略性调整等方面取得实质性进展,那么,我国经济增长的空间仍然十分广阔.由此预测,2002年国民经济将保持在7%的增长率,工业生产增长9%以上,全社会固定资产投资增长10%以上,社会消费品零售总额增长9%左右,出口增长5%左右,居民消费价格总水平上升2%左右.     

权威发布：一季度北京房地产投资增速明显 市场急速升温 商品房价格回落

经历2005年“国八条”、“新八条”一系列政策对房地产的宏观调控之后，此京房地产市场正朝着预期目标发展。房地产开发投资增速趋缓。商品房供应保持合理增长，价格的涨幅将保持平稳增长。2006年北京市房地产市场将会进一步稳定，保持政策的连续性和平稳性将成为市场管理的主旋律。     

数字

19.5%日前,2021年中央企业营业收入出炉。数据显示,2021年中央企业效益增长创历史最好水平,实现营业收入36.3万亿元,同比增长19.5%;实现利润总额2.4万亿元,净利润1.8万亿元,分别同比增长30.3%和29.8%。年初制定的营业收入利润率、研发投入强度、全员劳动生产率和资产负债率目标也得到了全面完成。     

中国经济增长前景及面临的挑战

一、中国经济增长的前景目标 （一）GDP总量增长目标分析 党的十八大报告中对中国经济增长的目标再次作出明确,到2020年,我国将全面建成小康社会。具体来说,经济增长的目标是GDP总量比2010年翻一番（按照不变价格计算）,达到中上等收入发展中国家的平均水平。要实现这个总量目标,要求我国从2011年～2020年的年均增长率要保持7.2%左右的增长速度。据统计,2010年GDP总量约为44万亿元人民币,再翻一番的话,按不变价格计算,2020年GDP总量将接近90万亿元人民币,     

2006年中国经济形势分析

我国目前宏观经济形势基本稳定,国民经济在2006年中仍将继续保持较快的增长,GDP增长率将保持在较高水平上。一、主要国民经济指标预测在充分考虑各种有利和不利综合因素的情况下,2006年的GDP增长率将有所回落,可以保持在接近9%的水平上；农业增长速度将实现接近5%的增长；2006年,第二产业仍将保持比较高的增长速度增加值增长率将为10．2%；第三产业在2006年的增长速度将仍然与第二产业有较明显的差距,第三产业增加值增长率将为7．5%,能够保持比较稳定的增长。与前两年相比,今后两年全社会固定资产投资增长将呈继     

增强消费的持久动力保持经济平稳较快发展

去年以来,在中央的正确领导下,全国各地树立和落实科学发展观,加强和改善宏观调控,国民经济继续保持了增长较快、效益较好、活力较强的良好势头。但是,将积极财政政策转向稳健财政政策之后,我国经济能否保持较快增长,各方正给予高度关注。一、保持我国经济持续较快增长仍然存在动力问题2003年下半年以来,我国经济保持着9%以上的增长速度,创下了近几年来的最好纪录。但害怕经济速度过快,防止"过热",成为不少人的忧虑。应当说,我国的经     

我国外贸增长的新特点和新形势

2007年,我国外贸继续保持着高速增长,全年外贸总额稳超2万亿美元,增长20%以上.对2007年我国外贸增长特点进行分析探讨,有利于促进贸易发展的战略性转型.     

2008年宏观经济增长趋势展望及政策建议

2007年,我国国民经济继续保持了连续第5个年头的快速、稳定增长的格局.GDP比2006年实际增长11.4%,加快03个百分点.2008年,在世界经济存在较大不确定性和以"双防"为目标的宏观经济政策环境下,我国经济增长有望出现高位稳中回落态势.预计2008年国民经济仍将保持高增长态势,主要原因是:受流动性过剩的影响,固定资产投资存在较强的反弹压力:消费需求依然较为旺盛;地方政府换届效应等.预计全年GDP增幅有所回落,但仍将保持10%以上的高增长趋势.     

我国拟在京津冀等地开展煤炭消费总量控制试点

从国家发展和改革委员会获悉,我国将在京津冀、长三角、珠三角和山东城市群开展煤炭消费总量控制试点,加大细颗粒物(PM2.5)治理力度,推进主要污染物减排。这是发展改革委为确保完成2013年节能减排工作目标任务所提出的11项举措之一。发展改革委有关负责人表示,2013年以来,我国能耗强度下降速度放缓,污染物排放增量压力加大。同时,要实现"十二五"目标任务,后三年年均单位国内生产总值能耗需降低3.84%,比前两年平均降幅高1.03个百分点,节能     

继续预调微调 释放市场活力

上半年,我国经济运行基本保持在合理区间,特别是二季度出现企稳回升。但由于存在房地产市场调整、企业经营困难加剧、财政金融支持力度下降和市场信心不足等问题,经济增长仍存在着较大的下行风险。预计今后一段时间,受出口形势持续好转以及稳增长政策持续发力的影响,经济增长动能将有所加强,全年经济增长为7.6%,消费价格上涨2.5%。为完成全年目标,要继续实施政策预调微调,加大财政金融对实体经济的支持力度,推进和完善行政审批制度改革,真正释放市场活力,并针对困难行业出台更具实效性的政策措施。     

United States

The unique feature of the global coronavirus recession is its speed. Economic conditions are evolving at such a rapid pace that the final Q1 GDP report now seems very stale. The 5% annualised contraction – the worst drop since 2008 – confirmed the onset of the GCR, with consumer spending and business investment falling 6.8% and 6.4% respectively. We estimate a plunge of 30% in Q2 GDP, driven by a collapse in consumer outlays, severely constrained business activity and stalled trade flows. The peak-to-trough decline in GDP should be around 10% – 2.5 times as bad as the financial crisis.     

Consumers alone shouldn't trigger the next recession

• ? If consumers in advanced economies were to hike their savings and rein in their discretionary spending in response to fears about the economy, we project global GDP growth in 2020 would slow to a subdued 2.1% (below our 2.5% baseline forecast), but the world economy would avoid a recession.
• ? The risks of rising precautionary savings aren't uniform across the advanced economies. For instance, the UK, Australia, Canada and Japan look particularly vulnerable to slowing retail sales, which could trigger a stronger downturn in those countries.
• ? Economies with the highest rates of consumer debt are also likely to be more at risk to weaker discretionary spending. In this respect, Australia, the Netherlands and Canada stand out the most.

     

Over the cliff edge and on to the rocks below

• ? If Brexit negotiations were to break down, the UK would face a significant increase in trade disruption from March 2019, even if it were able to put some basic trading arrangements in place. In a scenario where key sectors face extra friction, we find that the level of UK GDP would be 2.0% – or £16bn in cash terms – lower at the end of 2020 compared with our baseline. The impact on the remaining EU countries, including Ireland, would be much smaller .
• ? This article focuses on what a cliff‐edge Brexit means for trade costs and prices. This is only part of the equation – such a scenario would also influence supply chains and migration, while there is also potential for policymakers to mitigate some of the negative effects via looser policy.
• ? The notion that the UK could simply walk away from Brexit negotiations and rely on WTO rules to trade with the world is deeply flawed. The UK would need to re‐establish more than 750 very complex international arrangements just to maintain the status quo. We expect only the most critical issues – such as air travel – to be resolved by March 2019. Exporters also face a substantial increase in non‐tariff barriers.
• ? A breakdown in talks would also see both sides levying tariffs on imports from each other from March 2019, raising the cost of importing UK goods into the EU by 3.5% and by 3.1% for goods imported into the UK from the EU. For the UK, this will apply to roughly 60% of its goods exports and imports, but for all EU countries except Ireland the share would be less than 10%.
• ? The additional trade frictions would knock around 1pp a year off UK GDP growth in 2019 and 2020, resulting in a period of very weak growth. And the risks to this scenario are skewed to the downside – a slump in confidence or failure to establish the necessary customs infrastructure in time could easily generate a worse outcome

     

Regression‐Kink Approach for Wage Effect on Male Work Hours

In finding the effect of after‐tax wage rate on work hours, the main difficulty is the endogeneity of after‐tax wage rate that equals ‘one minus average tax rate’ times wage rate. To overcome this endogeneity problem, we take advantage of jumps in the marginal income tax rate, which is a regression discontinuity (RD) idea. This RD, in turn, makes the average income tax rate ‘kink‐continuous’, which is a regression kink (RK) idea. We provide a simple economic model resulting in the RD and RK features, explain how to implement RK in practice, and then apply our methods to Korean male data. Our main RK‐based labour supply elasticity estimate 7.16% turned out to be insignificant with t‐value 1.52, but it is much larger than most estimates in the literature. This may be attributed to, among other things, the facts that the RK instrument is unique, that RK identifies only the local elasticity at the kink point and that RK requires large data as regression derivatives are estimated.     

The effect of World Bank trade adjustment assistance on trade and growth, 1987–2004: Is the glass half full or half empty?

This paper studies the association between trade reform, growth, and trade adjustment assistance in a sample of developing countries that underwent trade reforms during 1987–2004. Our analysis explicitly differentiates between a group of countries that received trade adjustment loans from the World Bank and a non-recipient group. The results suggest that trade adjustment assistance is positively associated with economic growth after trade reform in the medium to long run. In comparison to a pre-reform period and to the non-recipient group, the recipient countries registered 0.2 percent higher growth of real GDP per capita, 5.0 percent higher import growth, and 2.5 percent higher export growth over a period of three to five years after trade reform.     

The contagion effects of volatility indices across the U.S. and Europe

This research adopts an autoregressive conditional jump intensity (ARJI) model by utilizing intraday data of overlapping trading hours to analyze the global contagion effects of sentimental responses and volatility dynamics through the volatility indices of the U.S. and three major European countries. The results show strong evidence of contagion effects among the volatility indices. For regional effects, compared to the other two European indices (VFTSE and VCAC), the volatility index of Germany (VDAX) generates greater impacts on the other indices, and we also observe bi-directional causalities among these three countries. The findings support the meteor shower hypothesis among the sample countries. Additionally, jump innovations in Germany affect investor sentiments with the fastest convergence speed. Finally, the jump convergence speed in the UK is slower, and the impacts of unexpected news could also last longer for UK investors.     

CAN THE CARBONIZING DRAGON BE DOMESTICATED? INSIGHTS FROM A DECOMPOSITION OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND INTENSITY IN CHINA, 1987–2007

China has relied on energy to stimulate its booming economy. As a result, its share of world energy consumption rose to 17.3% in 2009 from 7.9% in 1978. Somewhat surprisingly, through 2000 its rate of energy consumption was about half its rate of economic growth. This trend changed after 2001 as energy consumption rose about 1.3 times more rapidly than did gross domestic product through 2005. Through heavy governmental influence, energy intensity subsequently reduced through 2007, but just marginally. This paper uses the structural decomposition approach to understand key drivers behind changes in China's energy intensity and its energy consumption from 1987 to 2007. In our model, energy intensity change was decomposed into five factors: changes in energy efficiency, changes in share of value added, changes in input structure, changes in consumption structure, and changes in consumption volume. This paper provides insights into how changes in China's economic structure, technology, urbanization, and lifestyle affect energy intensity and energy consumption.     

Diffusion performance of major steel-making countries: alternative econometric tests

The purpose of this study is to compare the speed of diffusion in major steel-making countries. This is a cross-system analysis, involving industrial market countries (Western Europe, the United States, Canada, and Japan), quasi-market economies (selected newly industrializing countries, India), and the central planning states (the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe). The study reveals that at least in this, significant case, the latter countries are clearly inferior, i.e. slower.The article seeks the most accurate measure of speed of diffusion of one radical steel innovation, the oxygen process. The speed is estimated by regressing a logistic function not applied to the steel industry to date. Parameters of a logistic function are estimated first with linear least squares methods and then with nonlinear (or iterative) least squares, to establish which offers more accurate estimation than the widely used linear approach. It is shown that the iterative method produces a better statistical fit.Associate Professor; the author would like to acknowledge computational assistance by Steve Langolis, Stanford University, and help in updating the author's data on the world steel production provided by Mark Shafter, London School of Economics.     

Six sporting worlds. A cluster analysis of sports participation in the EU-25

The aim of this study was to identify clusters of European nations grouped by sports participation outcomes (organizational context and intensity of sports participation), in order to provide sensible groupings for international comparisons. Sports participation data for the EU-25 were distracted from the 2004 Eurobarometer survey. Both a hierarchical as a K-means clustering method was used to identify groupings of countries that are homogeneous in terms of sports participation profiles. Six clusters of countries could be identified: (i) non to average fitness countries; (ii) active club countries; (iii) average non-organized countries; (iv) average school countries; (v) active multi-context countries; and (vi) very active countries. Considerable differences in sports participation profiles between European countries are made clearer when viewed across clusters of countries grouped by actual outcomes. This empirically derived taxonomy has advantages over ad hoc systems for comparing sports participation and for deciding which countries appear to have the most comparable participation profiles. Moreover, it shows that policy strategies to increase sports participation in European countries need a differentiated approach and have to take account for the fact that the provision and intensity of sport is at a quite different level in all six sporting clusters.     

Competition as a track for preventing illegal immigration

Rich countries often face sizeable illegal migration. This paper suggests that these countries would use the financial aid which they give to the source countries as an instrument to prevent illegal immigration. The core of this policy is to allow the source countries to compete for the pre-determined aid, which would be distributed according to the cross-proportion of the apprehended illegal aliens. Moreover, we show that it may be beneficial for the rich country to split the source countries into competing pairs rather than allowing all of them to compete jointly. The rich country has basically two policy means: funds allocated to strengthening its border control; and the foreign aid given to the source countries. The multi-country general equilibrium model presented shows how the rich country, by choosing an appropriate mix of these two policy means, can minimize the number of illegal immigrants subject to its budget constrain.Received: 15 August 2002, Accepted: 21 January 2004, JEL Classification: F22Nava Kahana, Tikva Lecker: The authors are grateful to two anonymous referees for their valuable comments.