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在借鉴国内外研究成果的基础上,结合事故致因理论提出企业信息安全事故模型,以事故机理研究为基础,以管理因素研究为核心,对信息安全事故致因因素进行整理归纳,将其分为环境因素、人员因素、技术因素、设备因素等四类,分析各因素对信息安全事故的影响,构建信息安全事故致因因素鱼刺图,最后提出针对性的防范措施。 相似文献
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随着人误研究的不断深入,研究对象也由个体转向组织,这为人误研究提供了新的方向,以往关于组织错误的研究主要局限于组织管理因素对人因事故的作用与影响方面,对于组织内部各因素对人因事故的影响力却缺乏研究,而组织高管团队作为组织核心,对组织错误具有决定性影响作用,在人因事故中扮演着重要角色。 相似文献
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深入探讨地铁司机人因失误事故发生的根原因,对提高地铁司机人因可靠性以及地铁运行安全有着重要意义。首先依据人的行为与意向的关系,将人因失误模式划分为疏忽、遗忘、错误、违规;结合历史地铁人因事故统计、原因分析及专家意见,构建了涵盖与人有关的、与技术有关的、与组织有关的和与环境有关的4个维度的地铁人因失误事故前因分类表;并应用后果—前因之间的归因追溯关系,确定了失误模式—前因表和后果—前因追溯表,提出了一种基于CREAM追溯分析法的地铁司机人因失误分析法。最后进行了实证分析,分析结果与事故调查报告一致。 相似文献
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对于石化企业这类高危的生产企业而言,一旦出现人因失误,其带来的灾难性后果是非常严重的,但我国石化企业人因事故却又频频发生。以动态灰色关联分析为手段,分析近年来石化企业人因事故的原因,找到人因事故的主要影响因素,并针对性的采取必要的防控措施,能够有效降低石化企业人因事故的发生。 相似文献
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准确的高速公路交通事故概率预测可提高高速公路行车安全。通过分析高速公路交通事故的影响因素,建立高速公路交通事故影响因素体系,构造贝叶斯网络,提出基于贝叶斯网络的高速公路交通事故概率预测方法。此方法利用数据库先验概率信息及贝叶斯预测模型,得出高速公路交通事故概率值,以此判断事故危险等级。 相似文献
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LEC方法是目前常用的风险分析方法,但是该方法风险发生概率的取定过于主观。针对这一缺陷,本文展开研究并进行改进,将原方法中的"风险发生可能性"主观打分确定改进为由"系统固有能量"和"人为的控制能量"两个因素确定。最后,本文将改进的模型应用于某公路项目的隧道施工安全风险管理中并取得了很好的效果。 相似文献
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In this paper, we propose a model of income dynamics which takes account of mobility both within and between jobs. The model is a hybrid of the mover‐stayer model of income dynamics and a geometric random walk. In any period, individuals face a discrete probability of ‘moving’, in which case their income is a random drawn from a stationary recurrent distribution. Otherwise, they ‘stay’ and incomes follow a geometric random walk. The model is estimated on income transition data for the United Kingdom from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and provides a good explanation of observed non‐linearities in income dynamics. The steady‐state distribution of the model provides a good fit for the observed, cross‐sectional distribution of earnings. We also evaluate the impact of tertiary education on income transitions and on the long‐run distribution of incomes. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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首先根据实际问题分析了物流配送网络优化模型的各个关键组成部分,包括优化目标、决策变量和约束条件,并针对目前物流配送网络优化算法中存在的一些问题提出了一种新的算法,其核心是佳点集遗传算法。该算法编码采用prufer num ber结构,变异和交叉概率自适应选择。 相似文献
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过对国内A股上市公司人力资源会计信息披露情况的调查和分析,得出以下结论:人力资源会计在我国实践中已经有所发展,并非以往所认为的基本处于停滞状态;企业对人力资源会计信息的披露也表现出比较强的积极性。 相似文献
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《International Journal of Forecasting》2019,35(3):823-835
We present a simple approach to the forecasting of conditional probability distributions of asset returns. We work with a parsimonious specification of ordered binary choice regressions that imposes a connection on sign predictability across different quantiles. The model forecasts the future conditional probability distributions of returns quite precisely when using a past indicator and a past volatility proxy as predictors. The direct benefits of the model are revealed in an empirical application to the 29 most liquid U.S. stocks. The forecast probability distribution is translated to significant economic gains in a simple trading strategy. Our approach can also be useful in many other applications in which conditional distribution forecasts are desired. 相似文献
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This paper presents the application of an economic–probabilistic model to conduct risk analysis in technological innovation (TI) projects. The model integrates risk and economic analysis by quantifying both value and probability of occurrence of cash flow deviations, thus resulting in an economic–probabilistic analysis of the expected returns. The main risk categories and factors in TI projects are identified and associated to cash flow groups. The model allows to calculate risk-adjusted values for cash flow groups and project net present value through stochastic simulation. As a result, the model provides both the risk-adjusted project economic return with the associated probability distribution to its NPV and the variability that each risk factor generates in the project return. The model offers important benefits from the point of view of practitioners, including a condensed list of independent risk factors and the use of a monetary scale to assess risk impact which is familiar to most decision makers. 相似文献
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The Lognormal Distribution as a Model for Survival Time in Cancer, With an Emphasis on Prognostic Factors 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
P. Royston 《Statistica Neerlandica》2001,55(1):89-104
Despite their long history, parametric survival-time models have largely been neglected in the modern biostatistical and medical literature in favour of the Cox proportional hazards model. Here, I present a case for the use of the lognormal distribution in the analysis of survival times of breast and ovarian cancer patients, specifically in modelling the effects of prognostic factors. The lognormal provides a completely specified probability distribution for the observations and a sensible estimate of the variation explained by the model, a quantity that is controversial for the Cox model. I show how imputation of censored observations under the model may be used to inspect the data using familiar graphical and other technques. Results from the Cox and lognormal models are compared and shown apparently to differ to some extent. However, it is hard to judge which model gives the more accurate estimates. It is concluded that provided the lognormal model fits the data adequately, it may be a useful approach to the analysis of censored survival data. 相似文献