Fiscal Transparency

Abstract

Quality of governance is a key for political accountability, hence, the importance of identifying its determinants. Here, we focus on one dimension of quality of governance: fiscal transparency. Drawing on a sample of 691 Catalan municipalities (2001–7), we estimate the factors determining levels of budgetary transparency. Political competition and decentralization are the most important determinants of fiscal transparency. By contrast, budgetary variables do not appear to play any role.     

The Long Run Problem of Financing the Social Security System

Abstract . The Social Security Amendments of 1972 radically altered the Social Security System (SSS) by including, among other things, provisions whereby the taxable wage base would thereafter rise with increases in the average U.S. wage level and benefits would rise with increases in the Consumer Price Index. These provisions, in fact, have so affected the magnitude of present and potential future social security benefit payments that today, in spite of the restoration of short-run financial viability, the very financial solvency of the system over the long run is at issue. In an attempt to understand this financial solvency problem, three questions are examined: 1) how are social security benefits calculated today; 2) how have the underlying principles of the SSS changed recently; and 3) what does the future of the SSS look like? The results of that examination leave little doubt that the SSS must again be changed significantly if its long run financial solvency is to be restored, but President Carter's recent recommendations for change appear to be only a temporary solution to a long run problem.     

No direct influence of EU on domestic consolidation and reform: two fiscal ‘hardliners’, Netherlands and Estonia

ABSTRACT

In the Netherlands and Estonia, the European Union (EU) did not exert direct influence on domestic fiscal consolidation. They managed to resolve their fiscal crises and balance their budgets without external financial assistance, thanks to strict fiscal discipline. Yet, domestic consolidations in both countries were to some extent influenced by the EU. The Netherlands was subject to excessive deficit procedure. Estonia was indirectly influenced because of its top priority to join the Eurozone. This paper begins with a conceptual look at EU influencing. Then, fiscal discipline and consolidation in the Netherlands and Estonia are explored, especially their similarities and differences.     

Budgetary Models,Motivation and Engagement in Financial Collaborations

Abstract

This article focuses on the financial aspects of collaborative working between public authorities and other private and voluntary sector organizations. Drawing on research on five English case studies involving local authorities, it considers the extent to which decisions to collaborate and modes of working together are shaped and mediated by financial considerations. In particular, the research highlights differences in ‘budgetary form’ (pooled or aligned), individual partner ‘motivation’ (selfless/altruistic or self-interested) and ‘level of engagement’ (active commitment or passive involvement) as key variables that help to understand how and why some financial collaborations are more successful than others.     

Secular stagnation – are we stuck in Summers' long winter?

• We estimate that the UK has a relatively large output gap of around 2¾% of potential output. With the legacy of the financial crisis fading, the UK should see healthy growth in potential output of around 2.1% a year from 2015–24. Usually this would drive a period of strong economic growth, but we expect GDP growth to average a relatively underwhelming 2.4% a year over this period, largely due to the drag from aggressive fiscal consolidation.
• There is significant disagreement amongst economists about the size of the output gap. Estimation of the output gap has been problematic since the financial crisis because of the depth of the recession and relatively slow pace of the subsequent recovery, while sizeable revisions to the national accounts data have been an added complication. Our estimate of the output gap is towards the top of the range of independent forecasters surveyed by HM Treasury, but it is consistent with the literature on the impact of financial crises on potential output.
• We expect potential output growth of 2.1% a year from 2015–24, a faster pace than that seen since the financial crisis, but some way short of the experience of the pre‐crisis decade. The shortfall relative to the pre‐crisis period is largely due to a smaller contribution from growth in labour supply, which reflects the impact of an ageing population. However, labour is set to make a much stronger contribution to potential output growth in the UK than in most other major European countries over the next decade.
• The combination of a large output gap and healthy growth in potential output will provide the conditions for firm growth and low inflation over the medium term, with GDP growth expected to average 2.4% a year from 2015 to 2024. Growth could be stronger were it not for the sizeable drag from fiscal consolidation over the next four years and the dampening effect that this will have on activity. This will ensure that the output gap closes very slowly. The government's fiscal plans are heavily influenced by the OBR's view that there is limited scope for stronger growth to drive an improvement in the public finances. But if our view turns out to be correct, it will become apparent that the government has pursued a more austere path than is strictly necessary in order to comply with its fiscal rules.

     

The politics of fiscal consolidation and reform under external constraints in the European periphery: comparative study of Hungary and Latvia

ABSTRACT

This article investigates the diverse experiences of fiscal consolidation under external constraints in Hungary and Latvia. The financial crisis that hit in the early years of the twenty-first century had a profound effect on the economies of many EU member states. The responses, however, were diverse. Some countries, such as Latvia, implemented deep consolidation within a relatively short amount of time, while retaining political stability. Other countries, such as Hungary, went through an extensive period of fiscal consolidation, and experienced a significant shift in domestic politics. This paper looks at the factors explaining the variety of responses to the crisis.     

社保基金偿付能力风险理论分析与实证检验

欧盟针对保险公司偿付能力实行的新政"Solvency Ⅱ"已经开始在欧盟范围内运行,由此掀起了全球商业保险与社会保险偿付能力风险的变革,以抵御国际金融危机给保险业带来的巨大威胁。我国社保基金管理由于在资金来源和运营管理上与欧盟国家存在很大区别,且国内学者还没有高度重视偿付能力风险问题。因此,从理论上对社保基金偿付能力风险进行概念界定,提出相关指标体系,并结合社保基金收入与支出的时间序列建立ARMA模型,对偿付能力风险进行预测具有重要意义。这对充实社保基金风险管理理论,为相关管理机构提供更加合理的偿付能力风险管理方法,保护全体参保人的权利,降低国家的财政压力有一定的帮助。     

Executive Values and Decision Making: The Relationship of Culture and Information Flows

The effect of culture on work values has been studied in a number of ways, largely from a western perspective. Studies have predominantly employed questionnaires as the principal agent of data collection. Yet the Confucian work ethic attributes greater emphasis to collectivist values which bear more centrally on personal relationships. This research used discourse analysis in order to try to identify the implicit features of cultural values as they affected the transmission of financial information, a problem highlighted by the Asian currency crisis in 1997/98.
The international hotel industry operates in a multicultural environment where very often foreign operators manage locally owned premises. In these circumstances, budgetary planning and control is an important mechanism. A sample of the interactions between 18 hotel general managers and their financial controllers were studied in Hong Kong. Financial controllers are already subject to a number of role conflicts and it was found that these may be exaggerated by culture.
Chinese financial controllers seem to distort the outputs of budgetary planning and control processes in recognition of important organizational relationships. It is suggested that recognizing the direction and effect of these relationships has implications for leadership and performance judgements generally.     

Implementation of accounting reforms

Abstract

Innovations in financial and accounting techniques represent a fundamental aspect of the reforms undergone by public administrations in recent decades. The article presents the results of a survey, conducted on 237 local governments, whose purpose is to assess the implementation of accounting reforms in Italy, aimed at introducing accruals reporting in the traditional budgetary accounting system to enhance accountability and transparency in the overall modernization process. The analysis shows that the importance of cash- and commitment-based accounting in the overall system is overwhelming, whereas the marginality of the ‘new’ accrual-based reporting is evident. In the opinions of preparers, accruals accounting is not seen as a useful tool and the link with internal needs and managerial control systems is absent. Is the time ripe for a new reform?     

地方债务视角下西南地区四省市财政可持续性研究——基于面板数据的协整检验

随着经济社会的快速发展,我国地方政府债务规模也增长较快,引起了社会对地方债务风险及财政可持续性的担忧。为分析西南地区主要省市地方政府债务对其财政运行的影响,选取相关指标进行横向对比,并对西南地区各省市财政运行的面板数据进行实证分析。研究结果表明：西南地区各省市财政运行存在弱的可持续性,虽然地方债还未对财政运行造成显著不利影响,但弱的财政可持续性表明该区域财政运行存在一定风险,政府应注意防范,同时,应加强对新增债务和存量债务的控制和管理,提升财政运行的效率,改善财政运行透明度,建立科学的财政管理体制,提高财政风险识别和管理能力等,以实现财政的可持续发展。     

Taxation, money, and credit, in a liberalizing socialist economy

Understanding the system of financial control in the pre-existing régime of classical socialism is a key to understanding what might go wrong in the transition. Accordingly, this paper proceeds in four steps by examining:

Short‐term monitoring of fiscal policy discipline

Under the Maastricht Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), European Union (EU) Member States commit themselves to avoid excessive deficits over 3% of GDP and to pursue the medium‐term objective of budgetary positions close to balance or in surplus. The SGP also provides regulation for the surveillance of budgetary positions. An analysis of tools for the surveillance of budgetary positions is the focus of this paper. In particular, it addresses two open issues in the empirical public finance literature which are crucial for monitoring fiscal policy discipline in the EU. First, the estimation of the structural component of the fiscal balance ratio. Second, the computation, when only annual fiscal data are available, of quarterly budget balance ratios, using relevant information from quarterly measured macroeconomic series. An econometric model that addresses both issues is presented and estimated. Additionally, this modelling framework allows us to answer questions such as: what is the safety margin that will prevent a particular country from reaching, with certain probability, a budget deficit that breaches the 3% upper bound? Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Measures of the Amending Power of Government and Parliament. The Case of Italy 1988–2002

On the basis of a unique data set consisting of all the amendments to the Italian financial laws from 1988 to 2002, we empirically test whether and how the amending power is an instrument of the parliament or of the government and whether the use of this power was modified by the change of the electoral system in 1994. We show that, in both electoral systems, governments controlled the agenda and parliaments never exploited this power to increase the deficits beyond the planned value. The structural break of the Italian budgetary policy was determined by the Maastricht fiscal rules.     

基于四种能力和杜邦分析的财务综合分析--以恒大集团为例

财务分析是评判公司发展潜力的重要经济管理活动。文章以中国恒大集团为例,通过该公司的财务报告,解析其四大财务能力(利润、偿债、经营和发展),并利用杜邦分析法对其展开财务分析。该集团的四种能力指标从2016-2018年均是正增长,从2018-2020年该集团的盈利能力和偿债能力指标不断下降。通过杜邦分析法分析发现,2018-2020年的财务核心指标——净资产收益率出现大幅下降。     

The Effects of Fiscal Decentralization on Household Income Inequality: Some Empirical Evidence

Abstract

We investigate the effects of fiscal decentralization on income inequality using a sample of 23 OECD countries over the period 1971–2000. We utilize novel and robust measures of fiscal decentralization based on different degrees of fiscal autonomy of sub-central governments. Our results highlight the importance of both the nature of fiscal decentralization—expenditure versus revenue—and the extent to which independent spending responsibility and taxing powers are actually assigned to local governments. A higher degree of tax decentralization is associated with higher household income inequality within a country. Thus, even if fiscal decentralization could be attractive according to efficiency reasons, it may actually have undesirable consequences on the income distribution.     

Does Austerity Work? Theory and Evidence

• A number of factors underpin the Coalition's fiscal strategy, the most important being the use of rules (for the structural current deficit and net debt) and the creation of a new “institution”, the OBR, to monitor it. According to the Chancellor, this combination would ensure the government's “credibility and avoid elevated sovereign default premia and foster sustainable recovery.” 1
• It is already clear that the limited degree of independence for the OBR is a major shortcoming but there is another, more serious, problem in the Treasury's belief that the deficit ratio can be reduced by making spending cuts as clear failures by the government to achieve its fiscal targets on the deficit have shown. Such a failure is consistent with the results of research over the last decade which gives strong support to the view that fiscal multipliers are much larger than unity.
• The length of the downturn, the repeated large failures to hit deficit reduction targets and now the source and nature of the recovery show that his plan is failing. The former was predictable from the evidence just noted. In turn, the recovery relies on the surge in consumer demand following the easing of credit conditions for house purchase and points to a switch to a “Plan B”. It also demonstrates that the Chancellor could have brought about recovery very much earlier had he stimulated demand on taking office not reducing it with his self‐imposed austerity measures. He could even have stimulated demand to a much more constructive long‐term effect by increasing public investment.

     

基于DEA的全国31个省市财政科技支出效率测评

财政科技支出效率建立了一个科学且切实可行的评价体系,利用DEA模型,结合2006年全国31个省市财政科技支出的实例,对财政科支出效率进行分析。     

审计监督的财政治理效应研究——基于省以下地方审计机关人财物管理改革的准自然实验

审计监督是党和国家监督体系的重要组成,财政审计能对政府财政收支的真实性、合法性和效益性进行有效监督。以省以下地方审计机关人财物管理改革这一试点政策为准自然实验,从地方政府财政治理视角出发,运用双重差分法分析提升地市级审计机关独立性对地方政府财政支出效率的影响。研究发现,审计机关人财物管理改革能够有效提高地方政府财政支出效率,试点地区财政支出效率提高1.87个百分点。异质性分析结果发现,审计独立性的治理效应在财政透明度低、距离省会城市远和财政自主程度高的城市更大。通过进一步的机制分析,发现试点政策通过提高审计监督质量和优化财政支出结构两条路径提高地方政府财政支出效率。研究表明提高地方审计机关独立性可以对地方政府财政支出产生积极的治理效应。     

The political economy of exchange rate regime determination: Theory and evidence

This paper studies exchange rate regime choice from a positive perspective by modeling the interplay of monetary and fiscal policy, credibility and financial market microstructure as factors influencing the decision on de facto regime. The model shows how a small open economy reliant on foreign sources of financing is likely to opt for a stable regime. Furthermore, a stable political environment with a high degree of accountability is conducive to choosing a flexible regime. The findings suggest that flexible rather than fixed exchange rate regimes provide more fiscal discipline.