Objective Information and Social Consensus

A bstract . The experiment reported in this paper assesses the relative importance of objective and subjective determinants of judgment in a typical social judgment situation. A moral dilemma was described in five written versions: a control version plus four experimental ones. Each experimental version presented a small amount of additional information emphasizing a particular objective consideration bearing on the evaluation of the morally questionable action. The subjective factors in terms of the personal backgrounds and attitudes of the judges were assessed via a brief questionnaire. A multiple regression analysis produced two principal conclusions: 1) while both the objective and subjective factors had statistically significant effects on social judgment, neither had a numerically substantial effect; 2) the subjective factors contributed appreciably more to the determination of social judgment than did the objective factors. But it is shown that objective information does have some impact on judgment—sufficient may be critical in producing social consensus.     

Automatic feature identification and graphical support in rule-based forecasting: a comparison

We examined automatic feature identification and graphical support in rule-based expert systems for forecasting. The rule-based expert forecasting system (RBEFS) includes predefined rules to automatically identify features of a time series and selects the extrapolation method to be used. The system can also integrate managerial judgment using a graphical interface that allows a user to view alternate extrapolation methods two at a time. The use of the RBEFS led to a significant improvement in accuracy compared to equal-weight combinations of forecasts. Further improvement were achieved with the user interface. For 6-year ahead ex ante forecasts, the rule-based expert forecasting system has a median absolute percentage error (MdAPE) 15% less than that of equally weighted combined forecasts and a 33% improvement over the random walk. The user adjusted forecasts had a MdAPE 20% less than that of the expert system. The results of the system are also compared to those of an earlier rule-based expert system which required human judgments about some features of the time series data. The results of the comparison of the two rule-based expert systems showed no significant differences between them.     

Costly information acquisition and the temporal resolution of uncertainty

This paper studies the choice of an individual who acquires information before choosing an action from a set of actions, whose consequences depend on the realization of a state of nature. Information processing can be costly, for example, due to limited attention. We show that the preference of the individual is completely characterized by a preference for early resolution of uncertainty, which becomes indifference when facing degenerate choices. When information acquisition is no longer part of the decision process, the individual is indifferent to the timing of resolution of uncertainty and she behaves according to the subjective learning model of Dillenberger et al. (2014).     

The impact of access to consumer data on the competitive effects of horizontal mergers and exclusive dealing

We examine the influence of firms’ ability to employ individualized pricing on the welfare consequences of horizontal mergers. In a two‐to‐one merger, the merger reduces consumer surplus more when firms can price discriminate based on individual preferences compared to when they cannot. However, the opposite holds true in a three‐to‐two merger, in which the reduction in consumer surplus is substantially lower with individualized pricing than with uniform pricing. Further, the merger requires an even smaller marginal cost reduction to justify when an upstream data provider can make exclusive offers for its data to downstream firms. We also show that exclusive contracts for consumer data pose significant antitrust concerns independent of merger considerations. Implications for vertical integration and data mergers are drawn.     

Income distribution and well‐being: what can we learn from subjective data?

Abstract. How does the income of others affect my own welfare? This survey of the empirical literature stresses the contribution of subjective data to the understanding of this issue, with an attempt to disentangle direct effects (preference interdependence) from indirect informational effects. It shows that perceived mobility is central to the link between other people's income and individual satisfaction, as it determines individual opportunities and risks. Agents also appreciate the egalitarian nature of mobility itself, so that individual welfare depends on dynamic inequality rather than static income distribution. These studies illustrate how subjective data can bring information on aspects of utility and social interactions that are beyond the scope of the method based on action‐revealed preferences.     

Deconstructing job satisfaction: Separating evaluations,beliefs and affective experiences

In this paper I argue that standard treatments of job satisfaction have inappropriately defined satisfaction as affect and in so doing have obscured the differences among three separate, if related, constructs. These key constructs are overall evaluative judgments about jobs, affective experiences at work, and beliefs about jobs. I show that clearly separating these constructs is consistent with current, basic research and theory on attitudes as well as with current research and theory on “subjective well-being” (SWB). I also argue that the separation of the constructs can produce better criterion predictions than job satisfaction has by itself, suggests new areas of research that cannot be envisioned when satisfaction and affect are treated as equivalent constructs, and requires the development of new measurement systems.     

Organizational flexibility in Korean companies: rules and procedures on managerial discretion and employee behaviour

This paper examines organizational flexibility in Korea by concentrating on the rules and procedures on managerial and employee behaviours (safeguard and control rules), and their association with size, ownership, strategy and performance. The data reported were collected from forty-five organizations in South Korea. The results showed that flexibility in terms of low control rules (rules on employees) relates to innovation strategies, and lack of flexibility (high control rules) relates to cost-reduction strategies. The results also show that in Korea, a 'fit' between this aspect of organizational flexibility and strategy had a positive impact on organizational performance. Rules on managerial behaviour (safeguard rules) were strongly related to family or individual ownership in the Korean context. The implications of 'congruence' between organizational strategy and presence/absence of flexibility for employee behaviour are discussed.     

Rechtszekerheid bij onzekerheid

Legal security under uncertainty
There are two sources of losses in decision making: collective judgment and uncertainty. The situation can be summarized as follows:
Minimization of losses can be achieved by using optimal decision rules. The effect of this method differs in the three cases treated. The analogies and differences of the three cases are discussed in this paper.
Lezing gehouden op de Statistische Dag 1969.     

An application of rule-based forecasting to a situation lacking domain knowledge

Rule-based forecasting (RBF) uses rules to combine forecasts from simple extrapolation methods. Weights for combining the rules use statistical and domain-based features of time series. RBF was originally developed, tested, and validated only on annual data. For the M3-Competition, three major modifications were made to RBF. First, due to the absence of much in the way of domain knowledge, we prepared the forecasts under the assumption that no domain knowledge was available. This removes what we believe is one of RBF’s primary advantages. We had to re-calibrate some of the rules relating to causal forces to allow for this lack of domain knowledge. Second, automatic identification procedures were used for six time-series features that had previously been identified using judgment. This was done to reduce cost and improve reliability. Third, we simplified the rule-base by removing one method from the four that were used in the original implementation. Although this resulted in some loss in accuracy, it reduced the number of rules in the rule-base from 99 to 64. This version of RBF still benefits from the use of prior findings on extrapolation, so we expected that it would be substantially more accurate than the random walk and somewhat more accurate than equal weights combining. Because most of the previous work on RBF was done using annual data, we especially expected it to perform well with annual data.     

Cognitive reflection and economic order quantity inventory management: An experimental investigation

We use laboratory experiments to evaluate the effects of individuals' cognitive abilities on their behavior in a finite horizon economic order quantity model. Participants' abilities to balance intuitive judgment with cognitive deliberations are measured by the cognitive reflection test (CRT). Participants then complete a sequence of ordering decisions. Our results show that participants with higher CRT scores on average earn greater profit and choose more effective policies. However, these gaps are transitory as participants with lower CRT scores exhibit faster learning. We also show gender differences in performance do not hold when we control for individual CRT scores.     

Sequencing rules and due date setting procedures in flow line cells with family setups

The purpose of this study is to investigate due date setting procedures and dispatching decisions in a flow line cell with family setups. In this environment, setups are not required when switching from a job in a given family to a job in the same family. However, switching from a job in one family to a job in another family requires a setup. Family setups in this shop are sequence independent. The dispatching decisions in this shop are threefold: (1) when should the decision to switch from one part family to another be made; (2) once the decision to switch families is made, how should the next part family be chosen (next family decision); and (3) how should the jobs within a family be prioritized (next job decision)? If the decision to switch classes can only be made after the current family is exhausted, the rule is called a class exhaustion rule. Otherwise the rule is a truncated rule. The results indicate that the due date setting procedure has a major impact on how dispatching should be performed in the shop. The family exhaustion procedure using the APT next family rule and the SPT next job rule is the best performer for mean flow time. When setup times are long, the SEQ due date rule using the family exhaustion procedure with the FCFS next family and the EDD next job rules performed well for due date criteria. When setup times are short, the EDD/T, Sawicki truncation rule and the family exhaustion rules performed well for due date criteria.     

Estimating dynamic models from repeated cross-sections

An important feature of panel data is that it allows the estimation of parameters characterizing dynamics from individual level data. Several authors argue that such parameters can also be identified from repeated cross-section data and present estimators to do so. This paper reviews the identification conditions underlying these estimators. As grouping data to obtain a pseudo-panel is an application of instrumental variables (IV), identification requires that standard IV conditions are met. This paper explicitly discusses the implications of these conditions for empirical analyses. We also propose a computationally attractive IV estimator that is consistent under essentially the same conditions as existing estimators. While a Monte Carlo study indicates that this estimator may work well under relatively weak conditions, these conditions are not trivially satisfied in applied work. Accordingly, a key conclusion of the paper is that these estimators cannot be implemented under general conditions.     

On a computer-aided systems approach to personnel administration

A systematic evaluation methodology has been developed which integrates some major concepts from value, utility, decision, subjective probability theories and the Delphi method for obtaining a consensus of opinions. These theories are applied to the process of evaluation of personnel for recruitment, promotions, merit raises, transfer, salary administration, training and development. The model requires and utilizes as inputs explicitly stated sets of long-range goals, short-range objectives, resource needs, evaluative criteria, weighting and utility functions, as well as the subjective judgments of appropriate evaluators. The processing of this information may be implemented by manual calculations, batch processing on an IBM 1620 computer, or by direct simulation on a large time-sharing computer system. By utilizing standard statistical procedures and the decision rule to maximize expected utility, the methodology produces the type of output information required for rational decision making.     

论加强施工现场项目管理制度建设

制度即规矩。"没有规矩不成方圆"说的就是制度建设的重要性。制度是指在一个社会组织中要求其成员共同遵守并按一定程序办事的规程。加强施工现场项目管理的制度建设,能够提高项目管理组织的协调性和管理的有效性,保障工程项目获得最大的社会效益、经济效益和环境效益。通过制度建设,让施工现场每一个人心中都清楚应该做什么,如何做好,从而最终形成一整套比较完善的、系统化的激励约束机制。     

An empirical evaluation of two assessment methods for utility measurement for life years

Measurements of utility functions over life years provide useful information for decision making in the health care field. However, biases in the assessment procedures of utility functions is a well-known and documented phenomenon. In this paper we investigate possible biases in the assessment of utility functions when two different methods (direct and indirect assessment) are used. More specifically, we examine the estimation of utility functions over different lengths of life. The main findings, obtained from an empirical investigation in which the two assessment techniques were applied to a sample of students, are: (a) the use of the different methods does not lead to significant differences in the utility evaluation from a social point of view (health program evaluation); (b) the use of the different methods does lead to significant differences in the utility evaluation from an individual point of view (clinical decision making); (c) in both methods risk aversion was found to be common for shorter periods of time while risk prone behavior, when it exists, was found mainly for longer periods of time.     

The study of the effects of identity-related judgment, affective identification and continuance commitment on WOM behavior

In the past, many researches had focused on discussions related to the importance of word-of-mouth (WOM) that affects consumer behavior. In this research, the antecedents of WOM behavior will be discussed from WOM senders’ perspectives. It covers consumers’ identity-related judgment, affective identification, and continuance commitment. Furthermore, discussions will also be made regarding whether consumer affective identification and continuance commitment will affect the relationship between consumers’ identity-related judgment and WOM behavior. The study findings show that the distinctiveness and conformity of consumers have significant effects on consumer affective identification. In terms of mediating effects, consumer affective identification plays a mediating role in consumers’ identity-related judgment, continuance commitment and WOM behavior.     

项目风险识别方法探讨

项目风险识别是项目风险管理的重要环节，若不能准确地识别项目面临的潜在风险．就会失去处理这些风险的最佳时机。文章主要介绍了项目风险识别的主要内容，并从主观和客观信息源的角度介绍了六种常用的风险识别方法。最后提出，在实际应用过程中，为了减轻风险被主观夸大或缩小程度和减小风险被遗漏的可能性。可同时应用从主观和客观信息源出发的方法来识别风险。     

论“目标导向”会计准则及其借鉴意义

美国证券交易委员会在根据《萨班斯一奥克斯利法案》完成的会计准则研究报告中,提出了准则的制定应当坚持“目标导向”,并详细说明了“目标导向”准则的关键特征。“目标导向”准则重新强调了会计目标统一和会计准则理论框架的重要性,并将职业判断的责任由准则制定者回移给会计师和审计师,通过市场约束机制维护会计信息质量。这对我国会计准则模式选择、财务概念框架建设和会计信息的市场机制完善等方面都有很好的借鉴意义。     

Co-ordination and integration mechanisms to manage logistics processes across supply networks

Literature on supply chain management (SCM) emphasises the importance of co-ordination and integration mechanisms to manage logistics processes successfully across supply networks. This requires managers to (1) know the driver variables that must be addressed, since they determine how such processes can be designed and managed; and (2) understand how co-ordination and integration mechanisms interact with such variables and—as a consequence—with logistics processes. The paper addresses the second issue, as it tries to explain how logistics processes can be structured and controlled across supply networks by leveraging co-ordination and integration mechanisms, with consequences for strategic and operational choices for both the individual companies and the whole supply network. This issue has been investigated by analysing three case-studies of SCM interventions on logistics processes across different supply networks, involving central firms as well as several suppliers and customers.     

Fuzzy multi-linguistic preferences model of service innovations at wholesale service delivery

In group decision making, most researches often assume the linguistic ways with personal preferences have been given and ignore the linguistic evaluated formats involving their knowledge and experience. In practice, people contributing to the judgment tend generally to give ratings about their personal preferences depending on their background. Thus, problems in multiple linguistic preferences go undetected, resulting in the evaluation process not satisfying with decisions’ expectations. In this study, we provide a fuzzy multiple preference integrated model with two stages to better reduce the bias for group decision makings. The first stage focuses on making the information unify on the alternatives according to the individual linguistic preferences, then we compute collective performance values and solve the problems lacking on the integration of respective fuzzy choice subsets. The second stage, we choose the alternatives of retailing service innovations according to the collective performance values by stage one. The goal of the decision process is to reach the subjective fuzzy cognitions in terms of the preference values of all the decision makers. Finally, the survey data of the chain wholesale using multiple preference formats in service innovations determination is verified.