农户金融行为偏好与借贷行为──来自中国家庭追踪调查的证据

追踪调查中国家庭2012年的9032个农户数据,在控制农户家庭特征和村庄变量基础上,使用OLS进行基础分析后,主要采用Tobit模型对金融意识、风险偏好及社会信用与农户借贷行为进行分析后,可以得出主要结论:第一,金融意识越强、风险偏好越高和社会信任程度越高,农户的正规借款和民间借款金额越高。第二,金融意识越强、风险偏好越高,农户的民间借出款更多,但是社会信任对农户民间借出款的影响并不显著。第三,农业人口数量越多、家庭规模越大,农户的正规借款和民间借款金额越高,家庭经济状况越好,农户的正规借款额和民间借出款越多,户主年龄和民间借款金额存在倒"U"型关系。     

我国农户非正规金融借款影响因素分析

本文通过Tobit模型分析农户的家庭特征对农户非正规金融借款的影响。回归结果显示农户借款方式的选择不仅与家庭特征参数相关,而且借款用途的不同将使家庭特征对借款方式的影响发生变化。本文研究结果不仅得出农户借款方式选择的影响因素,还可为政策制定者改善农村金融市场环境提供一定理论支持。     

上市公司R&D支出结构的影响因素分析

采用2007-2010年我国上市公司的R&D支出数据,实证分析了R&D支出水平、研究阶段支出(R)和开发阶段支出(D)的影响因素。结果发现,企业规模、负债水平、多元化水平、盈利能力和市场预期等5个因素存在显著性差异影响,企业规模、盈利能力与研究阶段支出显著相关,企业规模、负债水平与开发阶段支出显著相关,多元化水平和市场预期在统计上没有显著性。这不仅有助于企业对R&D活动进行差异性控制,也为R&D支出会计政策变更提供了理论基础。     

新疆少数民族借贷行为研究

研究新疆少数民族农户借贷行为问题,有助于了解少数民族农户的借款需求、借款用途以及借款过程中的行为特征和影响因素,有助于推进农村正规金融机构金融服务改进和金融改革。通过对新疆阜康市三工河哈萨克民族乡农户的实地调查,实证分析农户的借贷总体状况、来源及用途等,同时针对农户借贷行为中发现的问题,对农村金融机构的服务流程和农户联保贷款等方面均提出相应的政策建议。     

我国四大经济地区农户的消费结构及其影响因素分析

采用2003~2009年我国东北东中西部10个省份农户的调查数据,分析农户的消费结构及其影响因素。研究发现,我国农户消费结构的优化程度依次为东部、东北、中部和西部地区,但依然是生存型的消费结构,食品和居住是消费支出的重点,占整个消费支出的40%以上。农户的家庭人口规模阻碍消费结构的升级,控制人口数量,提高人口质量和农户家庭纯收入,增加非正规金融组织贷款能够促进消费结构的升级和消费水平的提高。     

农户产业链参与对信贷获得的影响

本文基于吉林省820户农户的调查数据,使用倾向得分匹配法、二元选择模型和归并回归模型分析农户产业链参与行为对其信贷可得性和信贷规模的影响。结果表明：农户参与产业链对其信贷可得性和信贷规模具有显著正向作用,其机制在于农户订单生产和技术水平提升能够促进信贷获得。考虑到中国农户的异质性,按农户的耕地面积将农户分为规模大户和传统小户,分析结果显示,规模大户参与产业链行为对其信贷规模无显著影响,而传统小户参与产业链行为对其信贷规模有显著正向作用。根据本文研究结果,加快现代农业产业体系构建,强化产业链对小农户的吸纳作用,优化农业产业链金融服务,应成为政策选择上的重点。     

我国地方财政教育支出主要影响因素的实证分析

本文以2011年各地区地方财政教育支出及主要影响因素数据为样本，运用多元线性回归模型研究我国地方财政教育支出的主要影响因素，研究发现：地区经济规模、地区居民对教育规模的需求、地区居民对教育质量的需求、物价水平、地方政府对教育投入的意愿对地方财政教育支出的影响显著；地方政府对教育投入的意愿对地方财政教育支出的影响最大，物价水平次之。     

浅析资产支出金额的确定

在借款费用资本化过程中,每期借款利息资本化金额由至当期止购建固定资产的累计支出加权平均数和资本化率两个因素相乘计算确定,因而资产支出金额的确定直接影响累计支出加权平均数的计算。因此,正确确定资产支出金额是正确计算借款利息资本化金额的基础。这里的资产支出包括企业为构建固定资产而以支付现金、转移非现金资产或承担带息债务形式发生的支出。其中,以支付现金、承担带息债务形式发生的资产支出金额容易确定,     

浅析资产支出金额的确定

在借款费用资本化过程中，每期借款利息资本化金额由至当期止购建固定资产的累计支出加权平均数和资本化率两个因素相乘计算确定，因而资产支出金额的确定直接影响累计支出加权平均数的计算。因此，正确确定资产支出金额是正确计算借款利息资本化金额的基础。这里的资产支出包括企业为构建固定资产而以支付现金、转移非现金资产或承担带息债务形式     

金融排斥视角下的中国农户正规借贷行为研究

基于中国人民银行委托国家统计局2007年在全国范围进行的抽样调查取得的10省2万农户的大样本微观调查数据,从金融排斥视角考察中国农户正规借贷行为。采用Tobit模型分析金融排斥对农户借款行为是否有异质性影响。实证研究表明:第一,授信额度的增加将提高农户正规借款数量,减少农户民间借款数量;第二,当地拥有民间借贷组织将能增加农户非正规借款数量。     

Quantitative easing and the loan to collateral value ratio

We study optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian model at the zero bound interest rate where households use cash alongside house equity borrowing to conduct transactions. The amount of borrowing is limited by a collateral constraint. When either the loan to value ratio declines or house prices fall, we observe a decrease in the money multiplier. We argue that the central bank should respond to the fall in the money multiplier and therefore to the reduction in house prices or the loan to collateral value ratio. We also find that optimal monetary policy generates a large and persistent fall in the money multiplier in response to the drop in the loan to collateral value ratio.     

A characterization of Ramsey equilibrium in a model with limited borrowing

This paper considers a one-sector economic growth model with several infinitely-lived heterogeneous households, who differ both in the discount factors as well as preferences over consumption. Unlike the extreme form of borrowing constraint observed in the classical Ramsey model, recently surveyed in Becker (2006), we allow limited borrowing by the households and prove the existence of a perfect foresight equilibrium. We also show that irrespective of production technology employed by the firms, the capital stock sequence converges to the steady state stock and from some time onward all impatient households are in the maximum borrowing state, whereas the most patient household owns entire capital stock and the debts of all other households.     

Ramsey equilibrium with liberal borrowing

This paper considers a multi-agent one-sector Ramsey equilibrium growth model with borrowing constraints. The extreme borrowing constraint used in the classical version of the model, surveyed in Becker (2006), and the limited form of borrowing constraint examined in Borissov and Dubey (2015) are relaxed to allow more liberal borrowing by the households. A perfect foresight equilibrium is shown to exist in this economy. We describe the steady state equilibria for the liberal borrowing regime and show that as the borrowing regime is progressively liberalized, the steady state wealth inequality increases. Unlike the case of a limited borrowing regime, an equilibrium path need not converge in the case of liberal borrowing regime. We show through an example that a two period cyclic equilibrium exists when agents are allowed to borrow against their two period future wage income. This result is similar to the possibility of non-convergent equilibrium capital stock sequences in the model with no borrowing.     

货币供应量变动对家庭风险资产持有比例的影响研究——基于利率渠道视角

构建跨期投资决策模型,运用CHFS微观数据和相关的宏观数据,基于利率渠道研究了货币供应量变动对家庭金融参与及风险资产持有比例的影响。理论分析表明,货币供应量增加导致货币市场利率降低时,各类风险偏好家庭的金融参与及风险资产持有比例均会提高。实证结果表明：货币供应量变动对货币市场利率的影响较弱,利率渠道可能存在堵塞;货币供应量变动通过利率渠道对风险喜好家庭的金融参与及风险资产持有比例有部分中介效应,但对风险规避家庭有完全中介效应。     

Public versus private provision of liquidity: Is there a trade-off?

To what extent is public debt private liquidity? Much policy advice given in the aftermath of the financial crisis rests on the assumption that increasing public debt relaxes borrowing constraints of private households. This is the case for ad-hoc debt limits, which are exogenous to public policy. Instead, if debt limits are fully endogenous, as e.g. in the case of the natural borrowing limit, public debt has no impact. We assume that borrowing limits arise because of limited contract enforceability and are therefore determined as equilibrium outcomes. Using an incomplete markets economy in which households are subject to uninsurable earnings shocks, we show that public debt provides some liquidity, but less so than it would if constraints were imposed ad-hoc. We show that generating borrowing constraints as an equilibrium outcome substantially alters the answers to other important questions, such as for the welfare effects of government debt or its impact on real economic activity.     

House price appreciation, liquidity constraints, and second mortgages

This paper analyzes how households use second mortgages in response to shocks to housing wealth. Two related questions are examined: Do households use home equity in response to house price appreciation? Are liquidity constraints important for homeowners? A theoretical model shows that liquidity-constrained households respond more strongly to house price changes than unconstrained households. Using PSID, I find noteworthy differences in borrowing patterns of homeowners by the ratio of wealth to income. Low wealth-to-income homeowners exhibit a strong reaction to house price appreciation, whereas high wealth-to-income ones do not. The results indicate the importance of liquidity constraints among homeowners.     

House price appreciation,liquidity constraints,and second mortgages

This paper analyzes how households use second mortgages in response to shocks to housing wealth. Two related questions are examined: Do households use home equity in response to house price appreciation? Are liquidity constraints important for homeowners? A theoretical model shows that liquidity-constrained households respond more strongly to house price changes than unconstrained households. Using PSID, I find noteworthy differences in borrowing patterns of homeowners by the ratio of wealth to income. Low wealth-to-income homeowners exhibit a strong reaction to house price appreciation, whereas high wealth-to-income ones do not. The results indicate the importance of liquidity constraints among homeowners.     

The global monetary boom - no cause for panic

• ▀ Global monetary growth has been its fastest for decades over recent months, but we continue to believe inflation risks are lower than many think. A modest inflation overshoot in the coming years is possible but would not be very damaging.
• ▀ While headline money growth figures still look strong, heavy precautionary borrowing by firms in March-April is already starting to unwind in the US and UK. About 80% of the rise in borrowing by large UK firms has been repaid.
• ▀ In addition, tightened lending standards at banks are likely to weigh on future corporate borrowing and money growth. A net 70% of US banks tightened corporate credit standards in the latest Fed survey. Rising loan defaults risk exacerbating this.
• ▀ Heavy government borrowing and accompanying central bank QE have been key drivers of monetary growth and are likely to remain so, notwithstanding a slowdown in the pace of central bank bond purchases. This is the main risk factor those who fear inflation cite.
• ▀ But if credit to the private sector starts to shrink, deficit financing of this sort may be essential to prevent long-term weakness in money, credit, and economic growth. Japan's experience in the 1990s and 2000s is relevant here.
• ▀ Inflation also has room to overshoot current targets, if necessary, given the substantial undershoots of the last decade. This consideration in part explains the recent shift in Federal Reserve thinking towards targeting an average inflation rate over time

     

ON THE INEFFECTIVENESS OF FISCAL POLICY AS AN INSTRUMENT OF MACROECONOMIC POLICY

Spending depends on the quantity of money. If an increase in the budget deficit is financed by sales of government debt to non-banks, the quantity of money is unchanged and public borrowing 'crowds out' private spending. But – if the government finances its deficit (or buybacks of existing debt) from the banks – the quantity of money, and hence spending and national income increase.     

The impacts of affordable lending efforts on homeownership rates

In this study, we develop and test a methodology to assess the impact of affordable lending efforts on homeownership rates. More narrowly, we examine the impact of using flexible underwriting guidelines, primarily changes in the down payment and housing burden requirements, on the affordability and homeownership propensities of targeted populations and geographic areas. The impacts of changing these underwriting guidelines are compared with those resulting from lower borrowing costs (interest rates). A variation of the methodology first proposed by Wachter et al. (1996) is used in the analysis. We use the 1995 American Housing Survey (AHS) national core in the analysis. The findings indicate that affordable lending efforts are likely to increase homeownership opportunities for underserved populations, but that impacts may not be felt equally by all groups. Under most affordable products, the impacts on all households, recent movers and central city households are smaller than for other households. The recently introduced affordable products which permit the 3% down payment to come from non-borrower sources, e.g., Freddie Mac’s Alt 97, has the largest impact on the homeownership propensities of all underserved groups, including a 27.1% increase in the relative probability of homeownership for young households, a 21.0% increase for blacks, and a 15.0% increase for central city residents. Consistently, changes in underwriting guidelines are found to have greater impacts than changes in the costs of borrowing for all groups.