体育事业统计报表指标体系和指数开发研究

统计报表是统计调查中搜集统计资料的主要方式。为了满足全国各界对体育统计信息的需求,本文建立了体育统计年报报表指标体系,包括基本信息、投入指标、进展指标和产出指标等四项二级指标,48项三级指标。针对目前统计年鉴中绝对量指标多,相对量指标少,可比性差的问题,尝试设计了十六个宏观管理指数。通过本课题的研究,希望能为我国体育事业统计指标体系的建立和体育统计年鉴的完善提供参考。     

城市建设统计分析方法综述

统计分析方法以其定量分析、准确论断、科学预测等优势被应用于社会各个领域,城市建设工作的顺利开展离不开统计分析方法的运用,文章对统计分析方法的运用现状、重要性、形成发展、基本类型与国内外学者的研究等进行分析与概述。     

城市建设统计分析方法综述

统计分析方法以其定量分析、准确论断、科学预测等优势被应用于社会各个领域,城市建设工作的顺利开展离不开统计分析方法的运用,文章对统计分析方法的运用现状、重要性、形成发展、基本类型与国内外学者的研究等进行分析与概述。     

Accounting for Environmental Effects and Statistical Noise in Data Envelopment Analysis

In this paper we propose a new technique for incorporating environmental effects and statistical noise into a producer performance evaluation based on data envelopment analysis (DEA). The technique involves a three-stage analysis. In the first stage, DEA is applied to outputs and inputs only, to obtain initial measures of producer performance. In the second stage, stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) is used to regress first stage performance measures against a set of environmental variables. This provides, for each input or output (depending on the orientation of the first stage DEA model), a three-way decomposition of the variation in performance into a part attributable to environmental effects, a part attributable to managerial inefficiency, and a part attributable to statistical noise. In the third stage, either inputs or outputs (again depending on the orientation of the first stage DEA model) are adjusted to account for the impact of the environmental effects and the statistical noise uncovered in the second stage, and DEA is used to re-evaluate producer performance. Throughout the analysis emphasis is placed on slacks, rather than on radial efficiency scores, as appropriate measures of producer performance. An application to nursing homes is provided to illustrate the power of the three-stage methodology.     

统计基础工作中引入时间价值因素分析

在统计基础工作中,经常利用数列来表示经济现象在时间变化上的发展规律,由于该数列是将指标值按时间先后顺序简单排列,并没有考虑到各指标值本身所发生的时间价值,所以对于析始指标值的分析,不能精确反映和发现经济现象的实质及其发展变化规律。引入时间价值因素后,各指标值将会根据时间价值因素的变化而发生变化,分析时将会更为准确的发现经济现象发展变化规律。     

A Conversation with Jean‐Louis Bodin

Jean‐Louis Bodin has had a distinguished career as an official statistician in the French and European statistical systems, where he has been working for 40 years. Born in 1941 in Bordeaux, the capital city of one of the most famous vineyards in the world, he became graduate of two French prestigious schools, the Ecole Polytechnique in 1963, then the ENSAE (Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Economique) in 1966. After having spent 20 years in different positions in the French Statistical System, he dedicated the last 20 years of his career to international relations in official statistics and cooperation for strengthening statistical capacities of transition and developing countries. In particular, he was one of the main drafters of the UN Resolution on Fundamental Principles for Official Statistics and of the African Statistical Charter. He is also known for having created AFRISTAT, the Economic and Statistical Observatory of Sub‐Saharan African countries. He was also during years one of the French representatives in the UN Statistical Commission, the UN Conference of European Statisticians and the Statistical Committee Programme of the European Union. Jean‐Louis Bodin has played for 40 years a very active role in national and international statistical societies. He served on many disparate positions in the ISI family: executive director of the International Association of Survey Statisticians from 1981 to 1985 under the successive chairmanships of Gérard Théodore and Leslie Kish, founding member in 1985 with Vera Nyitrai of the International Association for Official Statistics and president of the Association from 1989 to 1991, secretary‐general of the National Organizing Committee of the 47th ISI Session held in Paris in August 1989, Chair of the Programme Coordinating Committee of the 50th ISI Session held in Beijing in August 1995, ISI president‐elect then president from 1997 to 2001, president of the Jury of the Mahalanobis Prize from 2002 to 2005. He was also president of the Société de Statistique de Paris in 1994. He received the certificate of Fellow of the American Statistical Association in 1996 and was a member of the ASA Committee for International Relations in Statistics from 1993 to 1997. He was bestowed in 2006 as a Chevalier de la Légion d'Honneur (Knight of the Legion of Honour) in France and in 1997 as a Kawaleski Orderu Zas?ugi(Knight of the Order of Merit) in Poland. He received the Medal of Statistical Merit in Vietnam in 2003 and the African Statistical Award bestowed by the UN Economic Conference for Africa in 2012. This conversation was held in June 2013 with Gilbert Saporta in Paris. Gilbert Saporta: Welcome to this interview, Jean‐Louis. I'm delighted that you could spend some time with me to discuss your career, your achievements and your views on some aspects of official statistics. It appears that your professional career as a French official statistician and your participation in ISI activities were tightly linked.

     

多元统计分析之因子分析浅析

多元统计分析是统计学中内容十分丰富、应用范围极为广泛的一个分支。在自然科学和社会科学的许多学科中,研究者都有可能需要分析处理有多个变量的数据的问题。本文对其中的因子分析的概念、模型及分析步骤作了讨论。     

加强统计方法制度改革,提高统计数据质量

真实准确是统计工作的生命线。统计数据的准确性如何,对促进国民经济持续、稳定、健康发展将有着重大影响。然而,在我国统计信息失真,尤其是人为数字造假导致的失真,至今未得到彻底根治。统计基础工作薄弱、统计方法制度与指标体系不够科学、基层统计人员的素质与责任心等都是影响数据质量的主要因素。加强统计基础工作,提高人员素质,完善统计调查体系,加强法制工作等都是提高统计数据质量的重要举措。     

Causality: a Statistical View

Statistical aspects of causality are reviewed in simple form and the impact of recent work discussed. Three distinct notions of causality are set out and implications for densities and for linear dependencies explained. The importance of appreciating the possibility of effect modifiers is stressed, be they intermediate variables, background variables or unobserved confounders. In many contexts the issue of unobserved confounders is salient. The difficulties of interpretation when there are joint effects are discussed and possible modifications of analysis explained. The dangers of uncritical conditioning and marginalization over intermediate response variables are set out and some of the problems of generalizing conclusions to populations and individuals explained. In general terms the importance of search for possibly causal variables is stressed but the need for caution is emphasized.     

浅议人才资本投入产出统计指标体系的设计

目前,人才资本已成为人力资本的核心和主体,这使得人才资本统计显得更为重要。而我国虽然也出现了人才测评、人才评估等技术,但是对人才资本统计指标体系的构建缺乏系统的研究。鉴于此,文中首先对人才资本这一概念进行界定,并进一步分析了它与人力资本的不同;继而详细阐述了人才资本投入产出统计指标体系的内容,以及人才资本投资效益分析。     

Statistical Integration Through Metadata Management

Faster and more versatile technology is fuelling user demand for statistical agencies to produce an ever wider range of outputs, and to ensure those outputs are consistent and mutually related to the greatest extent possible. Statistical integration is an approach for enhancing the information content of separate statistical collections conducted by an agency, and is necessary for consistency. It has two aspects-conceptual and physical-the former being a prerequisite for the latter. This paper focuses on methods for achieving statistical integration through better management of metadata. It draws on experiences at the Australian Bureau of Statistics in the development and use of a central repository (the "Information Warehouse") to manage data and metadata. It also makes reference to comparable initiatives at other national statistical agencies.
The main conclusions are as follows. First, a prototyping approach is required in developing new functionality to support statistical integration as it is not clear in advance what tools are needed. Second, metadata from separate collections cannot easily be rationalised until they have been loaded to a central repository and are visible alongside one another so their inconsistencies are evident. Third, to be effective, conceptual integration must be accompanied by physical integration. Fourth, there is great scope for partnerships and exchange of ideas between agencies. Finally, statistical integration must be built into the ongoing collection processes and viewed as a way of life.     

Adults' Statistical Literacy: Meanings, Components, Responsibilities

Statistical literacy is a key ability expected of citizens in information-laden societies, and is often touted as an expected outcome of schooling and as a necessary component of adults'numeracy and literacy. Yet, its meaning and building blocks have received little explicit attention. This paper proposes a conceptualization of statistical literacy and describes its key components. Statistical literacy is portrayed as the ability to interpret, critically evaluate, and communicate about statistical information and messages. It is argued that statistically literate behavior is predicated on the joint activation of five interrelated knowledge bases (literacy, statistical, mathematical, context, and critical), together with a cluster of supporting dispositions and enabling beliefs. Educational and research implications are discussed, and responsibilities facing educators, statisticians, and other stakeholders are outlined.     

关于提升统计数据的公信力的思考

当今社会是信息社会,随着经济、科技等日新月异的发展,各种信息层出不穷,人们极力从浩如烟海的信息中搜寻自己有用的信息,并对信息加以合理处理分析为己所用,但却又怀疑源于各种渠道的统计数字究竟有多少可信度。笔者就提升统计数据的公信力提出了四点个人看法。     

大数据时代统计工作面临的问题及对策探讨

在时代稳步发展的进程中,科学技术的进步让很多传统的工作模式发生了巨大的变化。以统计工作为例,其在开展相应的统计业务时,逐步地摒弃了以往人工操作的模式,积极地运用新型的统计手段,极大地提升了工作的效率,减少了人为因素产生的负面影响,是大数据时代富有代表性的产物。论文重点分析了大数据时代统计工作面临的主要问题,同时,根据相关的问题制定出合理的解决对策,促使统计工作更加顺利地开展。     

Index Based Regional Analysis: The Case of the Former Soviet Union and Russia

This paper presents a methodology for analysing inter-regional differences and identifying a suitable combination of policies for a set of regions. The methodology is based on the development of a composite index and is applied to compare (i) the members of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) and (ii) the regions of Russia. All variables considered and incorporated in the relevant index are (1) scaled from 0–100, so that the index is independent of units of measurement, and (2) weighted using survey results. According to the adapted regional development index Lithuania is on the top of the ranking followed by Latvia, Estonia, Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, Russia, Armenia, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. The FSU countries are positioned on a regional development index – per capita income mapping to investigate whether emphasis should be placed on regional, environmental or sustainable development policies. Finally, an index that incorporates various socioeconomic components is computed for the regions of Russia which are subsequently classified based on the value of this index. This classification shows that the regions with the best index values are in the Central–Southern part of the country (with the exception of Sackha Republic, which is in the West). The regions with the lower index values are in the Western part of the country and in parts of Central Russia (Mariel republic, Moldovia Republic, Perm region).     

2004-2012年我国建筑施工事故统计分析

我国建筑施工安全事故频发,严重影响到建筑业的可持续发展。本文采用直方图、趋势图、圆形结构图和事故分析表等对2004-2012年我国建筑施工事故进行统计,从事故的发生次数、死亡人数、事故类型及地区分布等几个方面进行分析,归纳出了建筑施工事故的发生规律,并针对事故发生规律提出了建筑施工安全管理的对策与建议。     

Het Indian Statistical Institute te Calcutta Organisatie en werkprogramma

The Indian Statistical Institute at Calcutta.
After an introductory statement on the organisation of official statistics in India the author describes the various departments of the Indian Statistical Institute, and its contributions to the development of sampling methods, in mathematical statistics and theory of probability, biometrics, psychometrics, statistical quality control, demography and economic development planning. The Institute occupies a leading position in India as a national and international centre of statistical research and training at very advanced levels.     

Reducing revisions in hedonic house price indices by the use of nowcasts

National Statistical Institutes (NSIs) must balance between timeliness and accuracy of the indicators they publish. Because some of the house sales transactions are reported several months after they occur, many countries that include Israel, publish provisional house price indices (HPIs) that are subject to large revisions as further transactions are reported. This happens because the late-reported transactions behave differently from the transactions reported on time. In this paper, we propose a novel methodology to minimize the size of the revisions, with illustrations from Israel, but the method can be applied to other countries with appropriate modifications. The proposed methodology consists of nowcasting three types of variables at a subdistrict level and adding them as input data to an extended hedonic model used for the computation of the HPI: (1) the average characteristics of the late-reported transactions such as the average number of rooms and the area size of the sold apartments; (2) the average price of the late-reported transactions; and (3) the number of late-reported transactions. The three variables are nowcasted based on models fitted to data from previous months. Evaluation of our methodology shows more than 50% reduction in the magnitude of the revisions.     

基层统计方法制度改革的相关研究

在现代经济发展中,统计扮演着关键的角色,它既能够帮助人们掌握各行业的具体信息,也可以为决策提供科学的依据,所以各基层单位非常注重统计方法制度的创建。对于基层而言,统计方法制度同样是发展乡镇经济不可缺少的工具,但由于自身条件的限制,基层统计方法制度并不成熟,在统计方法的选择、实现等方面还存在较多的问题,从而限制了这一工具价值的发挥。因此,改革基层统计方法制度成为当前迫切的要求,本文以此为方向展开探讨。