财政政策、货币政策调控与宏观经济稳定——基于新凯恩斯主义垄断竞争模型的分析

本文基于包含金融加速器的新凯恩斯主义垄断竞争框架,研究了财政政策和货币政策冲击对我国宏观经济的影响。实证结果表明,财政政策能够解释部分就业、消费和资本存量波动;货币政策冲击则能够解释大部分通货膨胀、就业波动,以及部分产出、消费和投资波动。总体上,模型能够较好地刻画中国宏观经济波动特征。本文认为今后一段时期内,应当将财政政策更多转向民生领域和基础设施建设,重视货币政策调控,从而更有效地调控宏观经济运行。     

当前积极财政政策效益研究

积极财政政策是指在宏观经济出现需求不足,投资、出口和经济增长乏力的情况下,所采取的一种阶段性或暂时性的适度扩张政策,最终达到扩大需求、刺激消费、保持经济增长的目标。2008年,美国次贷危机逐渐演变为全球金融危机,并影响到实体经济。发达国家的需求急剧萎缩，对我国经济产生巨大冲击，面对严峻的经济形势，党中央、国务院果断决策，10月9日宣布再次启用积极财政政策。     

突发大规模疫情对经济发展的影响 ——基于公众关注和媒体关注的视角

本文基于疫情风险影响经济增长的理论模型，发现消费、投资的变化不但取决于疫情对全要素生产率、资本存量等供给因素的影响，也受到需求因素的影响。然后基于公众关注和媒体关注的视角，采用网络搜索量进行量化，运用NARDL模型研究大规模疫情冲击对经济的长短期非对称传导效应。实证结果表明：短期内，公众和媒体对疫情的关注增加对经济发展的负向冲击明显更强；长期内，公众关注和媒体关注对经济发展负向影响较为有限，经济较快恢复稳态增长水平；公众和媒体对疫情关注的增加和减少对不同经济类型企业和不同行业的影响有所不同。基于此，本文建议以财政政策为主，以结构性货币政策为辅，保证信息公开及时，采用结构性和差异化策略精准滴灌支持中小企业复工复产，避免资金链、产业链和供应链断裂，确保经济企稳恢复。     

新冠病毒肺炎疫情对中国经济发展的损害及应对措施

新冠病毒肺炎疫情的爆发给面临复杂内外部环境挑战的中国经济带来极大外部冲击。疫情的高度传染性和不确定性对宏观经济领域总需求和总供给层面均造成不同程度的直接损失，同时也通过对产业链运行的影响、对就业的影响及中小微企业生存根基的挑战，给经济长期发展带来间接负面影响。面对疫情对经济的冲击，应以财政政策工具和货币政策工具为主帮助企业开展生产，以促进疫情带动的新产业和新发展模式助力经济恢复，以扶持中小企业应对危机并实现发展变革、增强经济活力，并以地方政府治理的系统性改革为提振市场信心提供保障。     

我国积极财政政策的风险分析

积极的财政政策在经济衰退时期,够起到刺激消费需求、拉动经济增长的作用。然而,当宏观经济形势发生变化时,积极财政政策的风险也会凸显出来,比如,伴随着政府财政赤字增加、国债规模扩大,可能引发政府债务危机和通货膨胀,政府支出增加对私人投资产生的"挤出效应"越来越大,财政政策的效应越来越小。因此,积极的财政政策的适时调整、转型以及创新是必然的选择。     

基于宏观经济计量模型的财政政策效应分析

本文通过一个宏观经济模型测算出我国财政政策乘数为1.88,并且呈上升趋势.本文还以四万亿财政刺激方案为例,测算财政支出对政府消费、居民消费、固定资产形成和进出口的具体影响,研究发现财政政策是调节总需求的重要杠杆,应对金融危机,选择以增加公共投资为主的财政政策作为刺激经济复苏的工具是正确的.随着我国经济由政策刺激下的快速回升转入稳定增长阶段,积极的财政政策在“调结构”和“稳增长”方面仍具有重要的政策含义.     

“十二五”时期中国经济发展趋势与宏观经济政策导向研究

当前,中国经济整体上行的态势基本确立,从经济增长结构上看,基本上属于投资驱动型,消费的驱动作用初步显现,而外贸对经济增长的贡献仍然为负。总体上看,当前经济自主性增长的基础不牢,经济运行尚未步入良性发展轨道。十二五时期,中国宏观经济政策导向需着力于财政政策、货币政策和产业政策。财政政策方面:通过持续公共投资,帮助经济实现平衡增长;利用财政手段,推进经济结构调整;通过减税、调整收入分配结构提高企业投资能力和居民消费能力;通过税收调节,优化出口结构。货币政策方面:把握信贷投放节奏、力度,实现经济发展平衡、稳定;优化信贷结构,支持经济结构调整;根据经济发展变化,及时调整信贷重点;采取多种手段,渐进提升人民币国际地位。产业政策方面:落实十一大产业振兴规划;着力发展新兴产业;落实七个区域经济规划明确的产业发展空间布局。     

货币政策的数量型工具与价格型工具的调控绩效比较——来自动态随机一般均衡模型的证据

本文基于我国经济发展现实,构建了包含金融加速器、工资调整粘性以及消费惯性的新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型,从货币政策的冲击效应、非政策冲击下宏观经济波动幅度以及中央银行损失函数等三个方面对比了不同货币工具的调控绩效,研究显示,价格型工具的调控绩效优于数量型工具,而稳健性分析也对此提供了进一步证明。因此,中央银行应积极地运用利率工具以更有效控制通货膨胀和实际产出波动,维护宏观经济稳定。     

政策变动同家庭金融资产配置意愿关联性研究——基于SVAR的实证分析

货币政策和财政政策是否影响家庭金融资产选择?文章选取2003年第三季度—2017年第四季度、时间跨度涵盖58个完整季度的居民储户调查数据和货币、财政政策变量数据进行实证分析。结果表明,货币政策和财政政策会影响微观家庭的金融资产选择,尤其是对于家庭储蓄存款配置意愿和股票基金投资意愿具有影响。政策对于家庭金融资产选择意愿的短期冲击和长期影响均存在,政策制定者应对居民金融资产选择意愿进行充分关注,及时进行资本市场风险管控。     

中国消费内生动力：收入增长下的涓滴效应研究

深入了解涓滴效应对居民消费的影响，促进消费视角下质的有效提升和量的合理增长，对稳定中国经济具有重要的政策含义。本文利用1992～2016年城镇住户数据构建动态面板，基于欧拉方程和工具变量法，从收入分布视角探讨同一城市内高收入家庭对中低收入家庭的消费涓滴影响。结果显示：在可支配收入增长的条件下，收入最高20%家庭消费每增长1%引致中间60%家庭消费增长0.050%～0.057%,中间60%家庭消费每增长1%引致最低20%家庭消费增长0.185%～0.231%,涓滴效应主要从收入高分位向低分位传递影响；通过地位寻求动机下的向上攀比，消费涓滴效应显著提高中间收入家庭的设备品、教育、通信与娱乐用品、居住、食品等消费分类支出和比重，提升高品质消费品的拥有率；促进居民持久收入增长和稳定消费品供给价格是发挥涓滴效应的关键因素，而收入差距的持续扩大会降低涓滴效应的影响。充分发挥居民家庭尤其是中间收入群体的消费涓滴效应，在多重不利环境下激发消费内生动力，有利于增强国内大循环的内生动力和可靠性，推动全体人民共同富裕的现代化。     

Incumplimiento del salario mínimo en Europa central y oriental

En este estudio se analiza el incumplimiento del salario mínimo durante el periodo 2003–2012 en diez países de Europa central y oriental con salario mínimo obligatorio nacional. A partir de los datos de EU‐SILC y la metodología propuesta por Bhorat, Kanbur y Mayet (2013), se cuantifica la incidencia y magnitud del incumplimiento. Se realizan análisis de regresión sobre determinantes individuales, laborales y macroeconómicos. Aunque la incidencia permanece relativamente baja, los trabajadores a los que se dirigen las políticas de salario mínimo parecen los más expuestos a su incumplimiento. Con el tiempo, una mayor incidencia se asocia a una razón más alta entre salario mínimo y salario medio.     

Cultural Economy Planning in Creative Cities: Discourse and Practice

While a growing body of research analyses the functional mechanisms of the cultural or creative economy, there has been little attention devoted to understanding how local governments translate this work into policy. Moreover, research in this vein focuses predominately on Richard Florida's creative class thesis rather than considering the wider body of work that may influence policy. This article seeks to develop a deeper understanding of how municipalities conceptualize and plan for the cultural economy through the lens of two cities held up as model ‘creative cities’ — Austin, Texas and Toronto, Ontario. The work pays particular attention to how the cities adopt and adapt leading theories, strategies and discourses of the cultural economy. While policy documents indicate that the cities embrace the creative city model, in practice agencies tend to adapt conventional economic development strategies for cultural economy activity and appropriate the language of the creative city for multiple purposes.     

Input/output ranges and performance: an examination of US machine tool producers

Despite the establishment of high-tech multinational enterprises (MNEs) in Ireland since the late 1950s, the country did not succeed in closing the technological gap with most of its EU counterparts. The weak National System of Innovation (NSI), and in particular low business and government R&D levels, combined with a lack of research and technology linkages between MNEs and indigenous firms, explain these poor results. However, the Shannon region in the West of the country presents some specific institutional characteristics that could theoretically make the region a strong technological enclave. The various actors in the region - i.e. the administrative, financial, political and research institutions, as well as the business organizations - have indeed infused a new type of economic development. After a brief review of the available concepts and models articulated around these actors and their interrelationships, the paper analyses whether the Shannon region, taken as an illustrative example, mirrors a specific economic and technological localized setting. The study is based on a survey of indigenous and foreign firms.     

Sixty years of discrimination and diversity research in human resource management: A review with suggestions for future research directions

This article reviews discrimination and diversity research published in Human Resource Management (HRM) over the past 60 years. While discrimination and diversity are very different constructs, it is often informative to study them together, because when people recognize each other's diversity, this can result in bias, stereotyping, and discrimination. We conducted bibliographic searches for terms related to discrimination and diversity as well as a manual search through every title and abstract published in HRM over the last 60 years to assess article relevance. The search resulted in 135 research articles with 136 unique studies (i.e., samples) which are reviewed in this article. Sex and race are the demographics that have been examined the most in HRM, while religion has been examined the least. Moreover, the number of studies examining lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer (LGBTQ) employees in the workplace in HRM has grown quickly within the past 10 years, culminating in a recent meta‐analysis. Our review looks at some of the earliest research published, the most recent research published, and the overall trends we identified in the research over the years for both discrimination and diversity articles. We then make future research suggestions and recommendations to advance the study of discrimination and diversity in the coming years.     

Multinomial distributions applied to random sampling of particulate materials

When sampling a batch consisting of particulate material, the distribution of a sample estimator can be characterized using knowledge about the sample drawing process. With Bernoulli sampling, the number of particles in the sample is binomially distributed. Because this is rarely realized in practice, we propose a sampling design in which the possible samples have a nearly equal mass. Expected values and variances of the sample estimator are calculated. It is shown that the sample estimator becomes identical to the Horvitz–Thompson estimator in the case of a large batch-to-sample mass ratio and a large sample mass. Simulations and experiments were performed to test the theory. Simulations confirm that the round-off error due to the discrete nature of particles is negligible for large sample sizes. Sampling experiments were carried out with a mixture of PolyPropylene (PP) and PolyTetraFluorEthylene (PTFE) spheres suspended in a viscous medium. The measured and theoretical variations are in good agreement.     

The Early History of the Cumulants and the Gram-Charlier Series

The early history of the Gram-Charlier series is discussed from three points of view: (1) a generalization of Laplace's central limit theorem, (2) a least squares approximation to a continuous function by means of Chebyshev-Hermite polynomials, (3) a generalization of Gauss's normal distribution to a system of skew distributions. Thiele defined the cumulants in terms of the moments, first by a recursion formula and later by an expansion of the logarithm of the moment generating function. He devised a differential operator which adjusts any cumulant to a desired value. His little known 1899 paper in Danish on the properties of the cumulants is translated into English in the Appendix.     

Capturing the Implications of Services Trade Liberalization

This paper evaluates the impact of service sector trade liberalization on the world economy by a ten-region, eleven-sector CGE model with import embodied technology transfer from developed countries to developing countries. Simulation results show that service sector trade liberalization not only directly affects world service production and trade, but also has significant implications for other sectors in the economy. The major channel of the impact is through inter-industry input-output relations and TFP growth induced from services imported by developing countries from developed countries, which may be embodied with new information and advanced technology.     

City Children and Genderfied Neighbourhoods: The New Generation as Urban Regeneration Strategy

Former industrial cities in the West are employing gentrification as urban policy. In these policies, women and families currently play an important role as gentrification pioneers. In my analysis of Rotterdam in the Netherlands, I propose the term genderfication to understand the gender dimensions of this process. Genderfication refers to the production of space for different gender relations. I analyse Rotterdam's urban planning program for becoming a ‘child‐friendly city’, which entails replacing existing urban dwellings with new, larger and more expensive ‘family‐friendly homes’ as a strategy for urban re‐generation. Urban re‐generation supplements regeneration in the form of material and economic restructuring, and refers to the replacement of part of the current population by a new and better suited generation. The ‘child‐friendly city program’ is considered in tandem with punitive ‘youth policies’.     

Performance appraisal and culture: practice and attitudes in Hong Kong and Great Britain

This article compares the practice of and attitudes towards performance appraisal for managerial and professional staff in Hong Kong and Britain, and considers the extent to which actual practice and employee preferences are in alignment. Findings suggest that appraisal may be more widespread in Hong Kong than in Britain. However, British appraisal tends to be more participative and to place greater emphasis on discussing objectives, development and career plans. Hong Kong appraisals appear to be more directive and Hong Kong respondents perceive a higher level of 'negative' appraiser behaviour. In spite of this, Hong Kong respondents show if anything slightly more confidence in the utility of appraisal than do British respondents. They show stronger support for appraisal's use for reward and punishment and less support for the objectives-setting and training and development uses than do the British sample. Hong Kong respondents are more likely than their British counterparts to favour involving a more senior manager in appraisal, and they are less likely to prefer more frequent appraisals. There was little evidence that Hong Kong respondents had a stronger preference for group-based appraisal criteria, although they did show more support than the British sample for the use of personality as a basis for appraisal. Overall, the suggestion is that appraisal has been adopted in Hong Kong organizations but that the practice of appraisal has been adapted to suit the cultural characteristics of the society.     

Narrative construction of expatriate experience and career cycle: discursive patterns in Finnish stories of international

Expatriate experience is not only a disconnected occasion for cross-cultural anxiety and adjustment but also an important event in the process of self-development and learning. Following this view and arguing for a discursive approach, the paper focuses on ways in which expatriates themselves tell and interpret their development and movement across expatriate career cycle. Meaning systems connecting expatriate job with previous and following work experiences in career stories of Finnish engineers and managers were identified using a combination of narrative and discourse analysis. No evidence was found of an autonomous expatriate discourse but, in contrast, expatriate career cycle was narrated using available organizational repertoires of development and career. Describing and discussing the meaning-making properties of three identified discourses - bureaucratic, occupational and enterprising - the paper emphasizes the organizational environment of expatriate experience while acknowledging the limits of these contemporary career vocabularies in addressing individual learning and change in cross-cultural settings.