THE CHOICE OF MODEL IN THE CONSTRUCTION OF INDUSTRY COEFFICIENTS MATRICES

Kop Jansen and ten Raa's (1990) characterization of product-by-product input–output tables was adopted by the United Nations (1993). Recent OECD and several EU funded projects, however, used industry-by-industry tables, which raises comparable issues concerning their construction. We show how their two main construction models are instances of the transfer principle, with alternative assumptions on the variation of input–output coefficients across product markets. We augment the theory by formulating desirable properties for industry tables and investigate the so-called fixed product and fixed industry sales structure models, which are used by statistical institutes. The fixed industry sales structure model is shown to be superior from an axiomatic point of view.     

ASYMPTOTIC ABSOLUTE EFFICIENCY OF PROJECTION TESTS WITH AN APPLICATION TO N-RANKING TESTS

A class of χ²-type goodness-of-fit tests for the hypotheses of equal cell probabilities is introduced and the quality of the tests under arbitrary model restrictions is compared, where a suitable efficiency concept is used. As a special case, several nonparametric tests on treatment effects in the randomized block design can be considered. Some well known cases, such as the Anderson-, Friedman- and the Page-test, turn out to possess a certain minimax efficiency property under reasonable model assumptions. Finally a direct comparison between the Anderson- and Friedman-tests is given.     

EVALUATING ALTERNATIVE REPRESENTATIONS OF THE CHOICE SETS IN MODELS OF LABOR SUPPLY

Abstract.  During the last two decades, the discrete choice modeling of labor supply decisions has become increasingly popular. Within the literature adopting this approach, however, there are two potentially important issues that so far have not been given the attention they might deserve. A first issue concerns the procedure by which the discrete alternatives are selected to enter the choice set. Most authors choose (not probabilistically) a set of fixed points identical for every individual. Some authors adopt instead a sampling procedure and also assume that the choice set may differ across households. A second issue concerns the availability of the alternatives. Most authors assume all the values of hours of work within some range are equally available. At the other extreme, some authors assume only two or three alternatives (for example, nonparticipation, part-time and full-time) are available for everyone. Some studies account instead for the fact that not all the hour opportunities are equally available to everyone specifying a probability density function of opportunities for each individual. In this paper we explore by simulation the implications of (i) the procedure used to build the choice set (fixed alternatives versus sampled alternatives); (ii) accounting or not accounting for a different availability of alternatives. The results of the evaluation performed in this paper show that the way the choice set is represented has little impact on the fitting of observed values, but a more significant and important impact on the out-of-sample prediction performance. Thus, the treatment of the choice sets might have a crucial effect on the result of policy evaluations.     

ECONOMETRIC TESTS OF ASSET PRICE BUBBLES: TAKING STOCK*

Abstract Can asset price bubbles be detected? This survey of econometric tests of asset price bubbles shows that, despite recent advances, econometric detection of asset price bubbles cannot be achieved with a satisfactory degree of certainty. For each paper that finds evidence of bubbles, there is another one that fits the data equally well without allowing for a bubble. We are still unable to distinguish bubbles from time‐varying or regime‐switching fundamentals, while many small sample econometrics problems of bubble tests remain unresolved.     

VARIANCE-RATIO TESTS OF RANDOM WALK: AN OVERVIEW

Abstract.  This paper reviews the recent developments in the field of the variance-ratio (VR) tests of the random walk and martingale hypothesis. In particular, we present the conventional individual and multiple VR tests as well as their improved modifications based on power-transformed statistics, rank and sign tests, subsampling and bootstrap methods, among others. We also re-examine the weak-form efficiency for five emerging equity markets in Latin America.     

R2 in Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations

Some properties are discussed of McElroy's measure of goodness of fit for Zellner's seemingly unrelated regression equations (Mc Elroy, 1977). Amongst them are asymptotic properties. We show that a possible alternative, the squared sample correlation coefficient of the npvector of dependent variables y=(y₁', y₂',…, y_g')' and the vector of estimated variables y, both premultiplied by the inverse of the square root of the variance matrix of y, is not invariant under changes of location or scale. This measure therefore can't be considered as a serious alternative to McElroy's.     

HODGES-LEHMANN EFFICACIES FOR LIKELIHOOD RATIO TYPE TESTS IN CURVED BIVARIATE NORMAL FAMILIES

For hypothesis testing in curved bivariate normal families we compare various size a tests by means of their Hodges-Lehmann efficacies at fixed alternatives, in particular when these tests have equal optimal asymptotic power in the local Pitman sense. The locally most powerful tests and the likelihood ratio tests for the curve are both Pitman optimal, but the latter turn out to have higher Hodges-Lehmann efficacy. All the tests considered here, including the locally most powerful tests, are likelihood ratio tests against suitable (possibly enlarged) sets of alternatives, the curve itself being an important special case of such a subset. In passing we illustrate a general result in Brown (1971) concerning Hodges-Lehmann optimality obtained by enlarging the model.     

任务驱动教学法的层次评估:指标构建与检验——以中山大学《区域物流规划》课程为例

在任务驱动教学法课程结构设计和实施框架的基础上,设计了一套基于层次分析法的课程绩效评估指标体系,并以修读中山大学《区域物流规划》课程的学生为样本,收集数据对评估效果做了拟合优度检验。与传统评估方法相比,发现:层次分析法的引入使得评教指标的权重发生了统计意义上的变异;融合传统评教指标和任务驱动指标的评价体系削弱了任务驱动评价指标的影响;任课教师在任务驱动评价体系下表现最好,但与其他方法结果差异不大。     

基于Flexsim的高校餐厅排队仿真

本文以某高校餐厅排队系统为研究对象,首先从运筹学排队论的角度分析排队系统。然后通过实地测量数据进行数据的独立性分析、数据分布形式的假定、分布参数估计以及拟合优度检验来确保仿真输入数据的准确性。最后利用Flexsim软件,对餐厅排队进行仿真,分析输出结果,得到该餐厅应设立的窗口数,从而缓解餐厅的拥挤程度。     

THE ROLE OF THE SERVICE SECTOR IN THE ECONOMY OF METROPOLITAN GENEVA, 1975–1985

Modern production systems are characterized by the growth of service industries and the increasing interdependence between services and the production of goods. Further, current research is becoming increasingly concerned with the strategic role of certain service functions in the process of economic growth. In this paper we examine these phenomena in the specific context of the economic structure and evolution of metropolitan Geneva. We begin by presenting an alternative typology of economic activity, and then employ this typology to examine three aspects of Geneva's economic structure: its configuration in 1985; its evolution over the period 1975–1985; and intrametropolitan shifts of economic activity. Finally, we compare Geneva to other metropolitan areas and cities in Switzerland, France, and Canada, in order to demonstrate the universality of the processes taking place.     

Orthogonal expansions for the generalized Cramér-von Mises statistics

We provide a new proof for the representation of Cramér-von Mises statistics under (known) gamma and normal distributions. The new method uses orthogonal polynomials and provides an explicit form of the statistics from which the asymptotic distribution can be calculated.Acknowledgements This research was partially supported by FQM-331, FQM-270, BMF 2001-2378 and BMF2002-04525-C02-02. The authors are thankful to the referees for their suggestions and helpful comments.     

THE DISTRIBUTION OF GENERAL QUADRATIC FORMS IN NORMA

For a general quadratic form in normal variables a representation in terms of independently distributed standard normal variables is derived. The necessary and sufficient conditions for such a quadratic form to have a non–central chi–squared distribution can be found easily using this representation.     

THE ‘REFERENCE POINT’ APPROACH TO THE THEORY OF THE FIRM: AN INTRODUCTION

There is a small but growing literature on the ‘reference point’ approach to incomplete contracts as formulated by Hart and Moore. The reference point approach has begun to be applied to the theory of the firm in 3 recent papers. This introduction reviews the main theoretical aspects of each of these papers. It then discusses the relationship between the reference point approach to the firm, the transaction cost approach and the property rights approach. Here it is argued that the reference point approach is a step back towards ex post inefficiencies, away from reliance on ex ante inefficiencies.     

VARIATIONS ON THE THEME OF CONNINGa IN MATHEMATICAL ECONOMICS

Abstract The mathematization of economics is almost exclusively in terms of the mathematics of real analysis which, in turn, is founded on set theory (and the axiom of choice) and orthodox mathematical logic. In this paper I try to point out that this kind of mathematization is replete with economic infelicities. The attempt to extract these infelicities is in terms of three main examples and one general discussion: dynamics, policy and rational expectations and learning are the examples; a game theory without ‘subjectivism’, based on the axiom of determinateness, is discussed in general terms. The focus is on the role and reliance of standard fixed‐point theorems in orthodox mathematical economics.