保障性住房财政补贴模式效率评价——基于住房供给市场差异的研究

加大保障性安居工程财政补贴支持力度,确保财政补贴的高效运行成为推进安居工程建设的关键。依据住房供给弹性和住房过滤理论,从经济学角度分析了供方补贴和需方补贴的实施效率。基于不同城市的住房市场差异,考察我国11个典型城市的住房供给弹性和住房过滤,在识别本地区住房市场特性的基础上探讨适宜采取的补贴方式。研究表明,不同城市由于住房供给弹性和过滤情况的不同,保障性住房财政补贴的效率存在显著差异,采取合适的保障房补贴方式,能够优化资源配置,打破财政压力对推进保障房工作的限制。     

保障性住房财政补贴模式效率评价——基于住房供给市场差异的研究

加大保障性安居工程财政补贴支持力度,确保财政补贴的高效运行成为推进安居工程建设的关键。依据住房供给弹性和住房过滤理论,从经济学角度分析了供方补贴和需方补贴的实施效率。基于不同城市的住房市场差异,考察我国11个典型城市的住房供给弹性和住房过滤,在识别本地区住房市场特性的基础上探讨适宜采取的补贴方式。研究表明,不同城市由于住房供给弹性和过滤情况的不同,保障性住房财政补贴的效率存在显著差异,采取合适的保障房补贴方式,能够优化资源配置,打破财政压力对推进保障房工作的限制。     

经济适用房不同补贴方式的效果

通过数学模型,分析政府对经济适用房生产商或购买者实施补贴对购买者的效用影响、对生产商行为的影响、对政府补贴成本的影响,及至对经济适用房成交量、成交价格和净社会福利的影响。研究结果表明:对经济适用房生产商采用降低土地价格的补贴方式不如对其按单位价格补贴或按成交价的一定比例补贴,这后两种方式都更有效率,能够降低政府补贴成本,减少政府腐败行为,促进房地产商开发适合低收入者所需要的住房并提高销售效率。     

经济适用房不同补贴方式的效果

通过数学模型,分析政府对经济适用房生产商或购买者实施补贴对购买者的效用影响、对生产商行为的影响、对政府补贴成本的影响,及至对经济适用房成交量、成交价格和净社会福利的影响。研究结果表明：对经济适用房生产商采用降低土地价格的补贴方式不如对其按单位价格补贴或按成交价的一定比例补贴,这后两种方式都更有效率,能够降低政府补贴成本,减少政府腐败行为,促进房地产商开发适合低收入者所需要的住房并提高销售效率。     

地产调控高压态势仍将持续

要继续加强房地产市场调控。推行符合国情的住房建设模式和消费模式，着力调整住房供给结构，整顿和规范房地产市场秩序，坚决遏制部分城市住房价格过快上涨。     

城市规划对住房可支付性的影响

以场景分析法剖析城市规划与住房可支付性之间的关系,认为城市规划对住房可支付性具有双重影响:其限制作用可能导致住房价格上涨,其再分配作用则可对可支付住房进行补贴。提出通过城市规划提升住房可支付性的两条途径:直接途径为通过增加住房供给来达到提升可支付性的目的;间接途径为通过抽取规划得益来补贴住房,以提升住房的可支付性。在房价与需求双高的条件下,住房市场持续存在经济租金,因此抽取规划得益具有很强的可操作性,有可能成为解决中国住房可支付性问题的现实途径。     

城市规划的应对策略

城市住房价格快速上涨并由此引发的购房困难、住房消费压力增大，是近年来我国一个非常突出而敏感的社会问题。城市规划作为对城市发展有着关键影响的公共政策，对于住房价格的形成与走势有着不可低估的作用。     

成市化过程中的住房价格与财富分配效应

在快速城市化过程中，住房价格持续上涨并不是由外部因素所决定的，而是内生于经济运行本身。由于住房的双重属性和较大的财富持有差距，一旦住房价格被需求触发，住房的投资属性必然会压过消费属性，由经济内部因素作用而持续上涨，直到价值增值的实现受到制约后，才会改变上涨趋势，经过一段时间之后，这个过程会重新开始。在价格上涨和价值增值的实现过程中，伴随着双重财富分配效应，价格持续上涨不但转移了无房人群的当期财富，而且转移了未来财富，同时具有持久性。要想抑制房价持续上涨，减弱这种分配效应，必须缩小投资收益空间，提高无房人群的支付能力。     

利率调控房市效果最佳

房地产价格受政策影响并不大,具有较大弹性的是成交量。利率负担是房地产市场短期调控最敏感的工具,利率比房地产供给对房地产成交量的影响要大。今年以来短期内和率负担与成交量呈现反向走势     

城区特征与商业银行住房抵押贷款决策

城区特征是商业银行住房抵押贷款决策的一个重要因素，它包括：1．人口特征，包括中位家庭收入、离婚率、失业率、年龄结构和受教育水平等；2．住房存量特征，包括住房价格波动率、住房交易规模、土地供给弹性、住房所有权比率、住房空置率、中位住房租金价格比、中位住房建筑周期和中位住房年龄等；3．公共服务特征，包括接受公共住房支持的家庭比例、学校质量、治安状况和拆迁改造等；     

The price responsiveness of housing supply in OECD countries

The responsiveness of housing supply to changes in prices bears important implications for the evolution of housing prices and the speed of adjustment of housing markets. Based on a stock-flow model of the housing market estimated within an error correction framework, this paper estimates the long-run price elasticity of new housing supply in 21 OECD countries. Estimates suggest that the responsiveness of housing supply to price changes varies substantially across countries. It is relatively more flexible in North America and some Nordic countries, while it is more rigid in continental European countries and in the United Kingdom. The responsiveness of housing supply depends not only on national geographical and urban characteristics but also on policies, such as land use and planning regulations.     

住房流动性对房价指数的影响及其定量分析

目前中国城市住房市场不稳定程度较高,这不仅体现为房价的迅速变化,而且反映在交易量的大幅波动上,后者就是住房流动性的变化。有学者研究指出,以实际交易价格为基础的房价指数可能会低估住房市场的波动程度。为了更准确地把握住房市场的运行状态,本文借鉴美国MIT的相关技术,分析了住房流动性（交易活跃程度）对房价指数的影响,并尝试将流动性信息引入房价指数当中。我们发现,住房流动性对于房价指数有较大影响,且符合人们对于市场走势的直观判断,能够较好地反映市场转折点。     

Managing hedonic housing price indexes: The French experience

Despite their theoretical advantages, hedonic housing price indexes are not so commonly computed by statistical agencies or real estate professionals. Many published indexes still rely on mean or median prices, or favor repeat-sales methods, which require less information about the attributes of the housing units and less econometric expertise on the part of the index compilers, but may be less accurate and robust. In France as in other countries where housing sales have to be recorded in front of a notary, data on transaction prices and characteristics of dwellings are available. Such data have been centralized since 1994, and quarterly hedonic housing price indexes have been computed for more than 10 years. This paper describes the institutional setting of housing transactions in France, and the collaboration between the notaries and the national statistical agency (INSEE). The former are responsible for data collection and regular computation, whereas the latter takes scientific responsibility for the method. The detailed information on the individual properties transacted remains proprietary data, but disaggregated indexes are publicly and freely available. This organization and assignment of roles has proven effective and might be extended to countries with similar institutional settings.     

中国城市居民住房支付能力研究

虽然住宅价格是由住宅市场的供给和需求决定的,但从长期来看,住宅价格应该与城市居民家庭的住房支付能力相适应.评价住房支付能力的指标有房价收入比(PIR)和住房可支付性指数(HAI),房价收入比用于判读住房价格是否合理,而住房可支付性指数能够反映家庭购买住房的还贷能力.论文通过计算2004年我国34个主要城市的房价收入比和住房可支付性指数,对我国城市居民的住房支付能力进行了城市排序.参照国外相关指标的评价标准,论文采用Pareto累计图的评价方法,得出了我国当前房价收入比和住房可支付性指数的分布区间.论文的研究成果既可作为政府调控城市住宅市场发展的依据,也可作为居民投资置业的依据.     

Supply constraints and housing market dynamics

Although the volatility of house prices is often ascribed to demand-side factors, constraints on housing supply have important and little-studied implications for housing dynamics. I illustrate the strong relationship between the volatility of house prices and the regulation of new housing supply. I then employ a dynamic structural model of housing investment to investigate the mechanisms underlying this relationship. I find that supply constraints increase volatility through two channels: First, regulation lowers the elasticity of new housing supply by increasing lags in the permit process and adding to the cost of supplying new houses on the margin. Second, geographic limitations on the area available for building houses, such as steep slopes and water bodies, lead to less investment on average relative to the size of the existing housing stock, leaving less scope for the supply response to attenuate the effects of a demand shock. My estimates and simulations confirm that regulation and geographic constraints play critical and complementary roles in decreasing the responsiveness of investment to demand shocks, which in turn amplifies house price volatility.     

Are housing benefit an effective way to redistribute income? Evidence from a natural experiment in France

In this paper, I show that in-kind benefit such as a housing benefit program may have a significant impact on the price of the subsidized good. I use a French housing benefit reform to evaluate the impact of the subsidy on the level of rents. The results indicate that one additional euro of housing benefit leads to an increase of 78 cents in the rent paid by new benefit claimants, leaving only 22 cents available to reduce their net rent and increase their consumption. This large impact of housing benefit on rents appears to be the result of a very low housing supply elasticity. I show that the housing benefit reform induced additional demand, not only from low income households but also from students who used the benefit to become independent. Unfortunately, this increase in demand was unmatched by increasing housing supply in the short and middle term. The only possible effect of the reform is a small increase in housing quality. These results raise questions about the use of such in-kind transfers when the supply of the subsidized good is almost inelastic. It is therefore very important to estimate the incidence of the subsidy when assessing the efficiency of such welfare programs.     

我国新建住宅长期供给价格弹性估算——基于35个大中城市的实证研究

大多数住宅模型和政策分析,都直接或间接依赖于住宅供给价格弹性的估计值：为了应对市场需求冲击,是多供给住房还是提高住宅价格？基于Mayo（1981）构建的模型,估算了我国35个主要大中型城市的新建住宅供给价格弹性。根据流量模型,2000-2007年我国的新建住宅价格弹性系数在4-11之间,2008到2013年的价格弹性在5-13之间。而存量调整模型得到了截然不同的估算结果：2008-2013年我国的新建住宅供给价格弹性在1-6之间,更精确的估算出了我国新建住宅供给市场的价格弹性。     

房价变动规律性及调控对策研究

房价的变动既是经济问题,更是政治和社会问题的体现.我国房地产业已经成为拉动国民经济发展的重要支柱产业.金融危机爆发后,房价的大幅波动引起了世界各主要国家的高度关注.本丈结合我国房地产业发展的实际,对房价的变动情况、变动规律性及调控对策问题进行了初步探讨.本文提出影响房价变动的十大要素,对各要素与房价这一变量变动的相关性进行了分析研究,以实现前瞻性的指导房地产业健康发展的目的.     

多套住房、可支付性和政策

随着经济全球化,现代交通、通讯方式导致的人口流动性增强,富裕群体热衷于购买休闲度假和投资用途的第二住宅,多套住宅规模呈扩大趋势。多套住房可以分为转卖和暂时空置、购买后出租、自住用途第二住宅。从短期来看,在一个供求均衡的市场,第三类第二住宅的冲击会导致中低收入阶层的住房可支付能力下降,前两者不影响。供不应求市场和供求均衡市场结果一样,但影响更大。供过于求市场则没有影响。从长期来看,结论依然和短期一样。可行的政策有加强商品房和保障性住房的供应,征收物业税减少住房的空置和闲置等,并提出了改进中国多套住房政策的建议。