城乡收入差距与居民消费结构：基于相对收入理论的视角

利用中国家庭金融调查2011年与2013年的面板数据,本文从相对收入理论的角度检验了城乡收入差距对居民消费结构的影响。研究发现,城乡收入差距扩大显著促进了农村家庭的人力资本和社会资本投入,但挤出了生存型和享受型商品消费。与对农村家庭的影响相反,城乡收入差距扩大对城镇家庭的人力资本投入有负向影响,但显著促进了他们的享受型商品消费。进一步的研究发现,城乡收入差距扩大对农村和城镇的低收入阶层、城乡居民间有更多接触机会的群体的影响更大。这些发现均与相对收入理论一致,城乡收入差距扩大激励了农村家庭不断追赶城镇家庭,当城乡收入差距逐步缩小时又激励了城镇家庭进一步提升与农村家庭之间的差距。研究还发现,政府增加对农村地区的教育投入可缓解城乡收入差距扩大对农村家庭食品衣着消费的挤出,且不会挤出农村家庭的私人教育投入。     

社会网络与京津冀家庭消费——基于“中国家庭金融调查（2013）”的实证研究

本文运用2013年中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）数据，研究社会网络对京津冀家庭消费的影响。研究发现，礼金往来越多即社会网络资源越广的家庭，其家庭总消费越多。进一步从消费结构分析，一方面，社会网络对家庭不同类型的消费均有正向影响；另一方面，由于耐用品使用周期长，社会网络对家庭耐用品消费有正向影响却不显著，但会显著增加家庭的非耐用品消费。本文的研究结果揭示了社会网络对家庭消费的正向影响，这为政府从微观家庭层面制定扩大内需政策提供了依据。     

“新农合”对农村居民耐用品消费的影响

本文利用中国营养健康调查（CHNS）数据,基于改进的Probit模型检验了新型农村合作医疗保险对农村居民耐用品消费的影响。研究发现：“新农合”能有效提高农村家庭的耐用品消费水平,且农村家庭上一期参保行为对耐用品消费的刺激作用更显著。另外,“新农合”对存在中、高健康风险居民的耐用品消费刺激作用明显,且上期参保行为对健康高风险居民的耐用品消费促进作用更强。     

当代大学生炫耀性消费行为原因探究

当代大学生消费越来越趋向于炫耀性消费,而炫耀性消费往往不是大学生必需的消费,大学生进行这种消费一般只是为了满足自己的攀比心理、体现自己的个性和突出自我。大学生炫耀性消费主要受社会不良消费行为影响、大众传媒误导、西方消费主义及社会文化背景的影响;受消费教育的缺失、教师消费的示范和同学间消费的影响;受家长溺爱、家庭消费沟通缺失及引导失当和大学生自身心理等因素的影响。社会、高校、家庭要切实承担起教育和引导的责任,大学生自身要把科学合理的消费观内化为日常消费的信条和准则。     

商业保险对家庭消费的影响——基于CFPS的分位数回归分析

基于2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,使用分位数回归方法研究了家庭商业保险对家庭消费行为的影响。商业保险资产对消费支出具有显著的收入效应,且随分位点数的增加,收入效应越大。控制变量中的家庭收入、城乡类别、家庭规模及受教育程度均正向显著地影响着家庭消费支出,且在各个分位点下系数呈现递增的趋势。考察商业保险对于不同类型消费支出的影响情况,发现商业保险对家庭设备支出以及居住支出等大额消费方面的支出存在显著的收入效应,而对于食品支出等生活必需品消费的影响微弱,对医疗保健的支出影响不显著。     

中国家庭“尊老”与“爱幼”消费差异性分析

目前中国少儿消费和老年消费存在较大不均衡,少儿人口对居民消费率的作用显著大于老年人口。本文从家庭层面分析“尊老”与“爱幼”消费的差异性,并从“需求异质性”和“选择偏差”两个角度解释该差异的来源。使用中国CFPS数据,检验得出子女对家庭消费的作用显著大于老人;通过进一步对比不同收入水平、不同区域和城乡家庭的情况,发现家庭和社会的“选择偏差”是目前“尊老”与“爱幼”消费差异的重要来源,并且该差异随着家庭收入、消费环境的改善会得到缓解。     

社会地位对宏观经济变量的动态影响——基于两部门搜索均衡模型的研究

本文将失业理论的搜索模型与社会地位结合起来考察社会地位的动态影响。研究发现社会地位引入效用函数等价于代表性家庭时间偏好率的降低,利用对数效用函数,得到经济系统均衡状态存在的唯一性。在均衡状态下,更强的社会地位意识意味着更高的储蓄率和资本积累,以及提供更多的社会空闲职位、更高的工资、更高的就业率、更为宽松的劳动力市场和更低的利率。     

家庭收入、住房财富和旅游消费--基于天津市微观调查数据的分析

基于《2017年天津市居民交通与住房调查问卷》,探讨家庭收入、住房财富对旅游消费的影响。研究发现,家庭收入、住房财富对旅游消费都存在显著影响,且家庭收入对旅游消费的影响高于住房财富;年轻家庭"住房资产效应"高于中年家庭和老年家庭;教育程度越高、工作越稳定的家庭其收入对旅游消费的影响越大;此外,风险厌恶型家庭其收入对旅游消费影响最低,风险偏好型家庭住房财富影响系数最大。     

基于利益相关和相对剥夺感的群体性事件动机城乡对比

民众参与群体性事件的动机根据作用路径可分为直接动机与间接动机。本文利用中国综合社会调查（CGSS）2010年的数据进行实证分析,结果显示：作为直接动机和间接动机关键衡量指标的利益相关和相对剥夺感对群体性事件均具有显著影响。进一步对不同动机进行城乡对比分析后发现：城乡样本在直接动机方面差别不大,但在间接动机方面,农村样本仅受心理收入剥夺感显著影响,而城市样本仅受经济阶层剥夺感显著影响。因此,在切实回应民众利益诉求、解决损害民众利益问题的同时,还需有效增加农民收入、注重城市居民阶层感受、保证资源分配和社会选择的公平,以促进中国城乡社会稳定。     

参照群体对消费者感知价值和购买意愿的影响

目前参照群体对消费者感知价值和购买意愿的影响在研究领域中日益受到重视,同时这个问题也引起了企业界的广泛关注。本文通过情景模拟实验法,将消费者自身对产品价值的评价设为高、中、低三个水平,而将参照群体的感知价值也设为高、中、低三个水平,从而将样本分为3X3九个场景分别对参照群体对消费者的影响进行研究。同时在研究设计中特意将参照群体区分为朋友和父母两类,以便就对这两组参照群体的影响做差异研究。研究表明:参照群体与消费者自身感知价值有差异时,正面建议会提高他的感知价值水平;而负面建议会降低其感知价值水平。而当两者感知价值相同时,参照群体的影响不显著,需要做进一步的研究。同时研究发现两组参照群体(朋友和父母)在其影响力上也不存在显著差异。     

我国城镇居民平均消费倾向与收入分配状况关系的实证研究

中国的有效需求不足现象近年来成为一个被普遍关注的问题,而居民消费需求不足更是成为关注的焦点。本文在前人研究的基础上,从标准的消费者预期效用最大化模型出发,推导出中国城镇居民的个体"短视"消费模型和总量消费模型;运用我国1985～2004年城镇居民消费、收入及其他相关数据,通过误差修正模型和对数线性模型分别对数据进行了计量分析,发现在我国现阶段,城镇居民收入分配差距的扩大引起了居民平均消费倾向的减小,且其长期影响尤为显著。在对计量结果进行分析的基础上,本文给出了若干政策建议。     

物价上涨对不同收入群体消费支出的影响分析——以广东省为例

为了考察物价上涨对居民生活的影响,本文以广东省为例,从短期和长期两个方面对不同收入层城镇居民的消费支出变动情况进行了实证分析。结果表明,从短期看,物价上涨使城镇不同收入层居民的消费支出出现不同程度的增加,但低收入层居民消费性支出的增长幅度最大,普遍高于其他收入层居民。从长期看,物价上涨对城镇不同收入层居民消费支出的影响方向和程度不尽相同,其中使低收入户、中低收入户和高收入户的支出增加,而使中等收入户和中高收入户的支出减少。但是,无论是从长期还是从短期看,物价上涨对低收入户的影响最大,其消费性支出的增长幅度均高于其他收入群体的支出增长幅度。     

REGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION AND ITS IMPACTS ON GROWTH, POVERTY, AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION: THE CASE OF INDONESIA

Indonesia continually tries to open its economy through free trade areas (FTAs) on bilateral, regional, and multilateral bases. This paper discusses the impacts of FTAs on the Indonesian economy, particularly for economic growth, poverty, and income distribution. By using a Global Computable General Equilibrium (GCGE) model, we conducted the simulation analysis by setting eighteen scenarios for the ongoing and potential FTAs of different frameworks. Indonesia is found to benefit from joining in FTAs, except for the FTA with India. It is also implied that FTAs increase rural household income at higher rates than they increase urban household income. Moreover, FTAs' impacts are more favorable for unskilled workers than for skilled ones, and also for relatively poor households more than for rich households, both in urban and rural areas. In brief, FTAs provide Indonesia with income redistribution effects.     

Charitable giving expenditures and the faith factor

Using a permanent income hypothesis approach and an income-giving status interaction effect, a double hurdle model provides evidence of significant differences from the impact of household income and various household characteristics on both a household's likelihood of giving and its level of giving to religion, charity, education, others outside the household, and politics. An analysis of resulting income elasticity estimates revealed that households consider religious giving a necessity good at all levels of income, while other categories of giving are generally found to be luxury goods. Further, those who gave to religion were found to give more to education and charity then those not giving to religion, and higher education households were more likely to give to religion than households with less education. This analysis suggests that there may be more to religious giving behavior than has been assumed in prior studies and underscores the need for further research into the motivation for religious giving. Specifically, these findings point to an enduring, internal motivation for giving rather than an external, “What do I get for what I give,” motive.     

The consumption–investment decision of a prospect theory household: A two-period model

This study extends the literature on portfolio choice under prospect theory preferences by introducing a two-period life cycle model, where the sufficiently loss averse household decides on optimal consumption and investment in a portfolio with one risk-free and one risky asset. The optimal solution depends primarily on whether the household’s present value of the consumption reference levels is below, equal to, or above the present value of its endowment income. Reference levels below the endowment income are associated with the self-enhancement motive. In this case, the household avoids relative losses in consumption in any present or future state of nature (good or bad). As a result the degree of loss aversion does not directly affect optimal consumption and risk taking activity. Reference levels equal to the endowment income are associated with the belonging motive. An example would be a household comparing to others that belong to the same social class. In this case the household’s optimal consumption is the reference consumption and the household will not invest in the risky asset. Finally, reference levels above the endowment income are associated with the self-improvement motive (or high aspirations). For such high reference levels, households cannot avoid experiencing a relative loss in consumption, either now or in the future. As a result, loss aversion directly affects consumption and risky investment.     

IMPACTS OF ECONOMIC REFORM ON RURAL-URBAN WELFARE: A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM FRAMEWORK

This paper demonstrates how economic reform undertaken in a developing country will impact not only macroeconomic variables but also income distribution between different household groups, particularly between rural and urban households. Unlike the well-known link to macroeconomic variables, the path connecting economic reform with income of rural-urban households is more equivocal and thus demands an inquisition. The CGE model constructed in this study is designed to serve such a purpose. When applied to the Indonesian case, both the static and dynamic simulations indicate that the post-reform progress in the country's macroeconomic condition is likely accompanied by worsening—albeit slightly—household income distribution between income groups. The non agricultural sector appears to be the major beneficiary of the reform. From the dynamic simulation, a worsening distribution is also found between rural and urban areas. However, results of both simulations also show that improved poverty conditions are likely achieved following the reform.     

Rural-urban migration and family ties: an analysis of family considerations in migration behaviour in India

The importance of family considerations in mobility decisions of rural to urban migrants in India was investigated by analyzing evidence on urban rural ties. The empirical basis was a survey of migrant heads of households in Delhi conducted from October 1975 to April 1976. Only 14% of the migrants in the sample were accompanied by family members when they moved to Delhi, and at the time of the survey 44% of the sample were living on their own as nonfamilial households. 82% of the migrants reported having family members living in the area. In 1/3 of these cases the rural household contained the wife of the migrant. Over 3/4 of the sample visited their origin regularly, and 2/3 were sending money. Migration decisions are discussed in the context of the mutlicentered family, and urban rural family links are classified into several distinct types, and the importance of visits and remittances to origin for each of these types are investigated. An econometric analysis of conjugal separation is presented, and the determinants of remittances are investigated. The salient methodological innovations are a 7-part typology of urban rural familial links and the use of logit analysis in the identification of the important determinants of conjugal separation. Nearly 4/5 of the migrants visited their place of origin. The proportion reporting visits was higher for migrants who had family members at place of origin, but as many as 60% of the migrants not having family links maintained contact with rural residents through visits. If migrants recognized mutual kinship rights and obligations dictated by the social system, they maintained close functional ties with their kin. Only 56% of unmarried migrants living as nonfamilial units reported visits to origin compared to 92% of those living with their nuclear unit. For migrants who reported presence of family members at origin, there was no significant difference between landowners and nonlandowners in the proportion who reported visits. Married migrants who had left their wives in the rural area were more likely to visit origin during the agricultural busy periods. A majority of the migrants maintained economic links with the rural area, and in early all these cases financial flows were from the urban to the rural area. Remittances tended to be related positively to urban earnings and needs of the rural household and negatively to obligations in the urban household. There was no evidence of ties weakening over time, but migrants who planned to settle in the city remitted less. To an extent conjugal separation was temporary and reflected husbands and wives making the journey at different times. Migrants were also inhibited from bringing their wives to the city if they owned land at origin or had migrated to obtain cash for specific needs. A part of the explanation also lies in varying regional cultural and environmental characteristics.     

Optimal density of radial major roads in a two-dimensional monocentric city with endogenous residential distribution and housing prices

This paper proposes an analytical urban system equilibrium model for optimizing the density of radial major roads in a two-dimensional monocentric city. The proposed model involves four types of agents: local authorities, property developers, households and household workers (i.e. commuters). The local authorities aim to maximize the total social welfare of the urban system by determining the optimal density of radial major roads in the city. The property developers seek to determine the intensity of their capital investment in the land market to maximize the net profit generated from the housing supply. The households choose residential locations that maximize their utility within a budget constraint, and the commuters choose the radial major roads that minimize their individual costs of travel between home and workplace. A heuristic solution procedure is developed to find the urban system equilibrium solution. A system optimum model is also proposed to optimize the density of radial major roads that maximizes the social welfare of the urban system. The proposed model can endogenously determine household residential distribution and land values across the city, along with the housing market structure in terms of housing prices and space. Numerical comparative static analyses of congestion pricing and road infrastructure investment (adding a new radial major road) are carried out together with evaluation of the effects of the service level of radial major roads, urban population size, and household income level on the urban economy.     

消费对经济增长的拉动作用研究——基于城乡消费结构的比较

消费是一个国家经济增长的源动力,是公民福利增加的源泉,如何发挥消费对经济的拉动作用已成为学术界研究的热点问题。基于城乡消费结构比较的视角,就消费对经济的拉动作用以及我国城乡居民消费结构的差异进行了研究,结果显示：消费对经济增长具有积极的拉动作用;居民收入水平较低、收入水平差距较大是我国城乡居民消费对经济增长拉动作用较小的重要原因;我国城乡居民的消费结构存在差别,主要原因在于城乡收入水平的差别,持续强劲的居民消费需要以居民的收入持续增加为基础。为此,应从提高居民收入水平、减小城乡居民收入差距、建立完善的医疗保障体系、合理的消费引导等方面来改善城乡居民的消费结构,以真正发挥消费对经济增长的促进作用。     

Consumers’ fluid milk consumption behaviors in TURKEY: an application of multinomial logit model

Although consumers’ fluid milk consumption behavior related to skim milk, low fat milk and whole milk have attracted a lot of attention in the last decade, relatively a few studies have examined the consumers’ unprocessed and processed fluid milk consumption. The objective of this study was to analyze consumers’ fluid milk consumption and preference in Turkey by using cross-sectional national survey data. The Chi-square test of independence and multinomial logit procedure were used to investigate the selected socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of consumers that determine households’ fluid milk consumption choices between unprocessed fluid milk, processed fluid milk and non-consumption choices. Empirical results indicate that unprocessed fluid milk preference is related positively to household size, number of children in family, household income, and age of housewife; and negatively to education level and employment status of housewife. On the other hand, processed fluid milk preferences are related positively to household income, number of children in households and education level of housewife and negatively to household size and age of housewife.