EVALUATING SUPPLY-SIDE AND DEMAND-SIDE SHOCKS FOR FISHERIES: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM (CGE) MODEL FOR ALASKA

This study used computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to investigate the economic effects of three exogenous shocks to Alaska fisheries: (1) reduction in pollock allowable catch (TAC); (2) increase in fuel price; and (3) reduction in demand for seafood. Two different model versions, ‘Keynesian’ and ‘neoclassical’, were used to estimate impacts on endogenous output, employment, value added, and household income. By using a CGE model, this study overcomes the limitations of fixed-price models (such as input–output models) including (1) inability to calculate welfare effects due to fixed prices; and (2) difficulty of addressing supply-side shocks. There are currently few examples of CGE studies addressing fisheries issues appearing in the literature. Among those, this study is unique in that it uses a relatively disaggregated sector scheme and examines both supply-side and demand-side shocks.     

Credit vs. demand constraints: The determinants of US firm-level investment over the business cycles from 1977 to 2011

The paper studies empirically how relative supply and demand conditions on the capital market affected US firm-level investment over the business cycles from 1977 to 2011. A dynamic econometric specification of capital accumulation including sales growth, Tobin's q, the cash flow-capital ratio and the cost of capital as covariates is fitted by a rolling window System GMM estimator using quarterly data on publicly traded US corporations in order to obtain time-varying coefficients. We find that the investment effects of the variables capturing the demand-side of the capital market, i.e. sales growth and Tobin's q, behave counter-cyclically, whereas this does not hold for the investment effects of supply-side variables such as cash flow or the cost of capital. Our results suggest that investment was typically driven by adverse demand rather than supply conditions on the capital market during the most severe recessions.     

供给侧结构性减税降费的思考

根据新供给经济学的观点,刺激经济发展最有效的手段是减税降费,因为减税降费不仅可以使企业降低成本、增加利润,进而扩大生产规模和投资科技创新领域,而且可以增加员工收入,提高员工积极性,使其更好地投入生产,这与供给侧结构性改革侧重于对生产者的激励不谋而合。中国经济进入新常态后,出现了如产业结构不合理、创新能力不强等问题,而需求侧宏观经济政策不能解决这些问题。基于此,论文就供给侧结构性减税降费进行了思考。     

Britain's low skill equilibrium: a problem of demand?

Britain has experienced a dramatic relative deterioration in workforce quality and productivity. This is seen as a central element in national economic decline. Current analysis assumes that this is essentially a supply-side problem. Here it is argued that deficiencies in demand have been more important in preventing the emergence of a better-trained and more productive workforce. The re-emphasis on demand-side failure has implications for analysis and policy at macro and micro levels.     

THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF EXPORTS IN DETERMINING LEVELS OF REGIONAL OUTPUT AND INCOME: A Model and Empirical Evidence from Kenya

Exports have long been assumed by many to be the most important variable in driving regional growth, although factors such as government expenditure, investment demand, and remittances, among others, have also been recognized as significant. In addition, supply-side constraints to the promotion of regional growth and development have recently received increased attention in the literature. This paper evaluates the relative importance of exports, investment demand, and remittances, as well as supply-constrained agricultural production, in determining levels of regional output, value added, and household income in a single region in Kenya. The analysis is based on a mixed endogenous/ exogenous model derived from a social accounting matrix (SAM) which allows for incorporation of both demand and supply-side considerations. The paper finds that exports are, in fact, the most important factor in explaining regional output and wage income in the region studied, although not overwhelmingly so. In addition, the analysis demonstrates the importance of supply-constrained agricultural production as a determinant of income at the household level.     

基于工作过程系统化的《Flash动画制作》课程开发

"中国有一千万人喜欢看FLASH,有七,八十万人喜欢做FLASH"这样的数字已经表明,一个有着大量需方和供方的市场已经形成了。只有课程内容设置与职业岗位能力要求相对应,才能为社会培养适销对路的符合市场需求的高级平面动画制作职业技术人才。本文借鉴德国职业教育先进思想,提出了基于工作过程系统化的《Flash动画制作》课程开发的理念、思路和实践等问题。     

A note on health care inflation

A key issue in health care reform is the need to contain the inflation rate of the CPI for health care services without substantially reducing the quality of health care. Althought the previous literature has widely debated the causes of increasing inflation in the CPI for health care services, very little has been done to empirically test these arguments. We use an econometric framework that allows us to expressly examine the determinants of the inflation rate of the CPI for health care services. The data cover the period from 1960–1994. The main results provide empirical verification for many of the demand-side and supply-side theories of the inflation rate of the CPI for health care services that have been widely discussed in the literature.     

INPUT–OUTPUT ANALYSIS FOR BUSINESS PLANNING: A CASE STUDY OF THE UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY

We present a multi-region input–output (MRIO) model of the University of Sydney embedded in the Australian economy, which forms the centrepiece of a new data-driven framework for strategic forecasting and planning of the University's financial operations. This framework incorporates both Leontief's well-known demand-pull, as well as Ghosh's supply-push exercise. It is therefore able to estimate the immediate financial implications for the University, and the economy-wide flow-on effects, for example as a result of changes in demand for courses by students, or as a result of supply-side changes such as wage increases. We report on recent scenario studies on the financial performance of the teaching and research functions of the University, and the lessons learned for management practice.     

Does the low-income housing tax credit increase the supply of housing?

The low-income housing tax credit (LIHTC) was originated in conjunction with the Tax Reform Act of 1986 (TRA 86) to provide incentives for private sector production of low-income housing. In this note we examine whether these units have added to the existing stock or merely substituted for unsubsidized units that otherwise would have been built. We explicitly control for effects of the number of other supply-side (e.g., public housing, Section 8 New Construction, Section 236 housing) and demand-side (vouchers and Section 8 Certificates) subsidies. From estimations of a simple cross-state model of the determinants of the stock of housing per 1000 population, we find no significant relationship between the number of LIHTC units (and other subsidized units) built in a given state and the size of the current housing stock, suggesting a high rate of substitution. However, our test is not sufficiently powerful to reject some alternative null hypotheses that suggest a lower rate of substitution, and we make some suggestions for future research.     

保障性住房财政补贴模式效率评价——基于住房供给市场差异的研究

加大保障性安居工程财政补贴支持力度,确保财政补贴的高效运行成为推进安居工程建设的关键。依据住房供给弹性和住房过滤理论,从经济学角度分析了供方补贴和需方补贴的实施效率。基于不同城市的住房市场差异,考察我国11个典型城市的住房供给弹性和住房过滤,在识别本地区住房市场特性的基础上探讨适宜采取的补贴方式。研究表明,不同城市由于住房供给弹性和过滤情况的不同,保障性住房财政补贴的效率存在显著差异,采取合适的保障房补贴方式,能够优化资源配置,打破财政压力对推进保障房工作的限制。     

Determinants of commonality in liquidity: Evidence from an order-driven emerging market

Using an extensive, time-series, cross-sectional data-set of actively traded Indian stocks with up to 1.75 million firm-day observations, we discern the key determinants of commonality in liquidity among emerging markets. The paper shows evidence for both supply-side and demand-side factors contributing to liquidity commonality. However, the results are more supportive towards supply-side rationale for liquidity commonality among the firms where regulators and banks play an important source of commonality in liquidity, especially during market turmoil. Results are partially driven by the fact that the Indian stick exchange is an order-driven market. Economic activities like cheap exports and undervalued currency, rather than correlated trading by the institutional investors determine the demand for liquidity. These findings endorse the effect of high firm value, market return, liquidity, volatility, turnover, and alternate proxies of commonality in liquidity estimation.     

PRODUCTIVITY AND STRUCTURAL CHANGE: A REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE

Abstract.  This paper is a survey of the existing research on structural change at various levels of aggregation with a special focus on the relation to productivity and technological change. The exposition covers the research concerning the development of the three main sectors of the private economy, multisector growth models and recent evolutionary theories of structural change. Empirical studies of the reallocation of market or sector shares as a result of differential productivity developments are also discussed. The synthesis emphasizes the crucial interaction of supply- and demand-side forces in shaping structural change.     

A knowledge-based typology of university spin-offs in the context of regional economic development

Drawing on the literature pertaining to the role universities play in promoting technology transfer, this paper develops an insightful conceptualization of spin-off processes, and applies it to a current regional case study. The suggested typology of university spin-off/start-up firms is based on several variables, including the type of university sponsorship, university involvement in firm formation, the character of knowledge applied, and co-localization of the founders. The empirical case study is used to demonstrate the usefulness of this approach in analyzing spin-off firms, and their dynamics. The study is based on interviews conducted with university spin-offs/start-ups in the information technology (IT) sector located in the Kitchener and Guelph metropolitan areas. This region, which is home to the University of Waterloo – one of Canada’s premier science and technology universities – has experienced an impetus of spin-off processes originating from university research dating back to the 1970s.The results of our analysis expose several trends: Sponsored spin-offs are largely the result of particular university research projects, and apply specific knowledge inputs in the development of their initial core technology. Unsponsored spin-offs, which find their foundation in decentralized idea development outside of the university setting, almost entirely rely on generic broad knowledge bases for the development of innovative products and services, which have enabled the firm-formation process. Overall, it is surprising that even firms that have received some form of university support described the role the University of Waterloo had in their start-up process as marginal. The dynamic research approach applied in this study, which outlines the university’s changing role over time and the regional dynamics associated with spin-off firms, further demonstrates the potential of our typology. As such, our typology of university-related start-up/spin-off firms is designed to support studies concerned with the wider impact of universities on technology transfer and regional development.     

Regional economic effects of higher education institutions

The paper describes five economic linkages by which a university might promote regional development. Both theory and empirical evidence are considered In general, the benefits of a university are found to dissipate too quickly outside of a local region to have very decisive local effects; however, there are exceptions which suggest ways to make the university a more powerful agent of regional development. Major attention is given to the possibility of enhancing the ‘amenity’ effects and the ‘expenditure’ effects of a university. Basic issues of cause-and-effect are also reviewed in light of their policy implications.     

Residential Hedonic Models: A Rational Expectations Approach to Age Effects

This paper develops a rational expectations framework for interpreting the coefficient on age in a standard hedonic model. The model demonstrates that there are two components to the age coefficient: a pure cross-sectional depreciation component and a demand-side component that changes over time. We also show that a constant quality price index with age constant can be estimated by using any repeat sales database that contains the year of construction (or property age). When Fairfax County data are fitted to the model, the time series of age coefficients is non-stationary: they change from negative in the early 1980s to positive in the late 1980s; we infer that the demand-side component dominated in the latter period.     

Development of academic entrepreneurship in a non-mature context: the role of the university as a hub-organisation

This paper focuses on how the evolving roles of a university and its Technology Transfer Office (TTO) are stimulating academic entrepreneurship in a non-mature entrepreneurial ecosystem. A more mature entrepreneurial ecosystem was built gradually by these actors through their progressive creation of innovation intermediaries and coordination among the local players involved in the creation of start-ups. We analyse how the university became a hub organisation. We use the case of the University of Strasbourg to show that the university contributed to the development of the entrepreneurial ecosystem by acting as a boundary spanner and by building and orchestrating the network of the stakeholders in the local system of innovation. This ‘hub’ university became a leading regional organisation at the political level. The TTO played a central role in supporting academic entrepreneurship at the operational level based on its evolution from a revenue maximising model to a model that takes account of social and economic regional development. The progressive adoption of a more selective model of start-up creation requires good coordination among the local actors. Over time, the TTO’s boundary spanning function increased to encompass the development of operational network building and orchestrating functions.     

金融新常态与经济新常态的协同发展分析——兼论金融供给侧结构性改革中解除金融抑制的进程

本文以金融抑制为研究主线,并作为经济新常态、金融新常态和金融供给侧结构性改革的结合点,解读金融供给侧结构性改革中解除金融抑制的进程并寻找金融新常态的现实依据,论述金融新常态与经济新常态的协同关系。结论如下:金融供给侧结构性改革效果良好,金融抑制的解除取得显著成效;我国金融发展步入新常态,且中国金融体系和金融发展具有内在稳定性;金融新常态与经济新常态相伴而生,金融新常态既是经济新常态的必然结果,也是经济新常态的客观表现。根据经济发展和金融供给侧结构性改革的历史经验,适应经济新常态、稳步推进金融供给侧结构性改革的建议为:在深化金融改革的同时,突出政府、市场和社会的协同作用;从内外两个角度实施金融供给侧结构性改革;中央和地方在解除金融抑制和深化金融改革时,应充分把控速度和质量,逐步推进金融供给侧结构性改革。     

A PATCHWORK SAFETY NET: A SURVEY OF CLIOMETRIC STUDIES OF INCOME MAINTENANCE PROGRAMS IN THE UNITED STATES IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE TWENTIETH CENTURY

Abstract Social welfare programs in the USA are designed to serve as safety nets for people in hard times, in contrast with the universal approach found in many other developed western nations. In a survey of cliometric studies of social welfare programs in the USA, we examine the variation in the safety net in the USA across states in the 20th century, the determinants of the variation and its impact on socioeconomic outcomes. The USA has always displayed substantial variation in the extent of the safety net because the features of most public social welfare programs have been and currently are determined by local and state governments, even after the federal government became involved in the 1930s. Differences across states persist strongly for typically a decade, although the persistence weakens with time, and there are some periods when federal intervention led to a re‐ordering. The rankings of state benefits differ from program to program, and economic and political factors have different weights in determining benefit levels in panel data estimation of their effects. Variation in benefits across programs during the early 1900s had significant impact on labour markets, economic activity, family formation, death rates and crime.     

Supply constraints and housing market dynamics

Although the volatility of house prices is often ascribed to demand-side factors, constraints on housing supply have important and little-studied implications for housing dynamics. I illustrate the strong relationship between the volatility of house prices and the regulation of new housing supply. I then employ a dynamic structural model of housing investment to investigate the mechanisms underlying this relationship. I find that supply constraints increase volatility through two channels: First, regulation lowers the elasticity of new housing supply by increasing lags in the permit process and adding to the cost of supplying new houses on the margin. Second, geographic limitations on the area available for building houses, such as steep slopes and water bodies, lead to less investment on average relative to the size of the existing housing stock, leaving less scope for the supply response to attenuate the effects of a demand shock. My estimates and simulations confirm that regulation and geographic constraints play critical and complementary roles in decreasing the responsiveness of investment to demand shocks, which in turn amplifies house price volatility.     

Managing campus entrepreneurship: Dynamic capabilities and university leadership

Much has been written about university–industry partnerships, but relatively little research has focused on the effects of such collaboration on conflict among university departments or on broader types of entrepreneurial behavior involving local, regional, and even global initiatives. This broader perspective, which we call “campus entrepreneurship,” offers more avenues for universities to establish a foundation for long-term success at a time when public support for higher education appears to be in decline. The dynamic capabilities framework and leadership theory developed in the fields of strategic management and organizational behavior, respectively, are applied herein to provide guidance to university leaders seeking to embrace a comprehensive multifaceted entrepreneurial approach to campus priorities and activities.