The J-curve dynamics of U.S. bilateral trade

Three earlier studies examined the impact of dollar depreciation on bilateral trade between the United States and her six largest trading partners. They used different methodologies that resulted in different outcomes. In this paper we consider 18 major trading partners of the United States and employ a relatively new method to investigate the short-run as well as the long-run response of the bilateral trade balance to currency depreciation. While as with previous research we are unable to discover any J-curve pattern in the short run, in the long run real depreciation of the dollar has favorable effects on the U.S. trade balance in most cases. Valuable comments of an anonymous referee are greatly appreciated. Any remaining errors, however, are the authors'.     

The Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement: An economic evaluation

A bilateral Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Australia and the United States came into effect on 1st January 2005. Since the U.S. is one of the main trading partners for Australia, it was anticipated that the FTA would bring a substantial increase in Australia's bilateral trade with the United States. It would also have important implications for Australia's other main trading partners such as Japan, and China. This paper seeks to provide a quantitative assessment of the impact of the FTA by undertaking simulations using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. By simulating the GTAP multi-country CGE model, the paper evaluates various economy-wide effects, sectoral level effects, and trade diversion and trade creation effects in the two countries in response to bilateral free trade. It will also identify the effects on trading partners outside the FTA. The results will provide a preliminary indication of the magnitude of welfare gains involved.     

Production networks and international trade: China,Brazil and Mexico

In this paper, we examine and contrast the production networks in China, Brazil and Mexico. We highlight three results. First, over the last two decades, China's intensity of trade in parts and components has shifted from other members of Greater China to South Korea and ASEAN countries. Second, even though China's production network is mainly Asian, its parts and components trading partners are increasingly global. Brazil also increasingly trades its parts with China and East Asia, while Mexico is still focused on its trade with the United States. Third, Greater China has become a major source of parts and components to Mexican and Brazilian imports. We highlight the importance of such a pan-Pacific link and anticipate that the joint China–Brazil–Mexico production network will continue to grow.     

Regional trade agreement and foreign direct investment

This paper investigates the relationship between regional trade agreements, such as the NAFTA, and FDI. Using a fixed-effects gravity model to estimate OECD panel data spanning 1982–1997, we learn that trade integration encourages FDI. We find specific evidence for each of the NAFTA member countries—Mexico, Canada and the United States. In addition, we find evidence that FDI will rise with host and parent country GDP and fall with distance.     

人民币汇率变动的贸易效应——基于分国别(地区)面板数据的分析

中国对不同国家(地区),特别是亚洲国家(地区)和西欧国家(地区)的贸易结构的差异很大,人民币汇率(双边)对贸易(双边)的影响也不相同。本文从分国别(地区)视角,通过建立面板数据模型,实证检验了人民币汇率(实际有效汇率)变动对中国同主要贸易伙伴之间贸易的影响。本文还选择分国别(地区)的初级产品和工业制品两种不同类型贸易数据,进一步揭示了汇率对不同国别(地区)不同贸易类型的影响。     

Exchange rate volatility and fluctuations in the extensive margin of trade

The existing evidence for exporters׳ entry and exit in response to exchange rate movements is based on either low frequency data or a sample with large devaluations. Using quarterly data of U.S. bilateral trade with 99 countries, this study provides new evidence that the extensive margin of trade fluctuates over the business cycle. First, I show that the extensive margin of exports to the U.S. and the extensive margin of imports from the U.S. are more volatile than the output of almost all trading partners. Next, I find that fixing exchange rates with the U.S. dollar, having a free trade agreement with the U.S., and an increase in country size is significantly associated with the stability of the pattern of trade with the U.S.     

Exchange rate sensitivity of US bilateral trade flows

The traditional way of assessing the impact of currency depreciation on the trade balance has been to estimate the elasticity of trade volume to relative prices. To this end, most previous studies used aggregate trade data. To avoid aggregation biases potentially hidden in aggregate data, recent studies have relied on bilateral trade data. Since import and export price data is not available on bilateral level, this study proposes an alternative way of assessing the impact of currency depreciation on bilateral trade flows. The models are applied between the US and her 19 industrial trading partners using recent advances in time-series modeling.     

International trade of GMO-related agricultural products

This paper examines the international trade of a variety of genetically modified (GM) food products over a 27-year period (1984–2011) with data from the United Nations using the tools of social network analysis. The results indicate that each of the different crops have a distinctive pattern of trade that has changed over time due to a number of different factors. Also, trade in agricultural commodities became more diversified over time, dominated less by the United States and other nations central in the trade networks and trade in the individual GM crops was stable over time. Countries maintained their trading partners for specific crops, despite the adoption of the genetically modified varieties. The economic implications of these results are discussed for specific countries.     

Distinguishing China's processing trade in the world input-output table and quantifying its effects

ABSTRACT

Distinguishing processing trade is crucial to national input-output table-based research on China's international trade. This paper further investigates the importance of distinguishing China's processing trade in multicountry input-output table-based studies. We focus on the bias in China's bilateral trade in value added caused by China's undistinguished processing trade. We construct a product-by-product world input-output table capturing China's processing trade based on the World Input-Output Database. Empirical studies show that, if China's processing trade is undistinguished, the profile of China's bilateral trade in value added would be seriously distorted; China's bilateral net trade in value added with some economies, such as Japan, Korea and Taiwan, would be significantly underestimated, while it would be significantly overestimated for some other economies, such as the United States. Distinguishing processing trade in multicountry input-output tables is also crucial when China's bilateral trade in value added is considered.     

The J-Curve at industry level: Evidence from Sweden–US trade

Previous research that investigated the impact of real depreciation of kronor on Swedish trade balance used trade data either between Sweden and the rest of the world or between Sweden and each of her trading partners. Not much support was provided for a significant effect, especially in the case of Swedish–US trade. In this paper we consider the trade flows between Sweden and the US one more time and try to disaggregate the data by industry. We consider the trade balance of each of the 87 industries that trade between the two countries and investigate the short-run and the long-run effects of real depreciation of kronor on each industry's trade balance. While we find short-run significant effects in the majority of the industries, the short-run effects last into the long-run favorable effects only in 23 of 87 industries.     

Trade friction and price discovery in the USD–CAD spot and forward markets

This paper examines the impact of trade friction on price discovery in the USD–CAD spot and forward markets. Using the recently developed fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) model, we investigate how the foreign exchange spot and forward markets respond to trade friction. We consider two major trade friction events: the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement and the recent trade friction between Canada and China. Both events show that the forward market plays a dominant role in price discovery, and the influence of the forward market increases as trade tension increases. By comparing the fractional and non-fractional models, we find that the fractional model fits the data better and has superior forecasting performance to the cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR) model.     

Asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on Turkish bilateral trade balances

Previous studies that have assessed the short-run and the long-run effects of exchange rate changes on Turkey’s trade balance with its major partners relied upon a linear adjustment process that could not find much support for favorable effects of exchange rate changes. In this paper, once we separate real appreciations from real depreciations via the partial sum concept and introduce nonlinearity into the estimation and testing procedure, we show that the effects of exchange rate changes are asymmetric. More precisely, while lira appreciation does not have any significant effects on Turkey’s bilateral trade balances, lira depreciation has significantly favorable effects on Turkey’s trade balance with its European partners (France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, and Great Britain).     

Bilateral trade flows and exchange rate sensitivity: Evidence from likelihood-based panel cointegration

This paper estimates price and income elasticities for bilateral trade equations between Sweden and her eight major trading partners for the period 1960–2001. The methodology used here is the likelihood-based panel cointegration recently developed in the literature. Evidence is found that depreciation of the SEK is expected to improve the Swedish export sector towards six of her eight major trading partners. Regarding Swedish imports, only in four of the eight cases, the price elasticity indicates that depreciation of the SEK decreases Swedish imports. Considering the Marshall–Lerner condition, this is fulfilled for two of the eight countries in the sample. The income elasticities are found to be positive for all countries in the sample. The policy implications of our results are discussed.     

International competitiveness of japanese manufacturing

This paper deals with the effect of corporate management practices on the efficiency of Japanese manufacturing and their international trade performance. It also looks at the relative cost position in comparison with the major industrialized countries. Such cost comparisons reflect changes in productivity performance, inflation and exchange rate changes that have been so marked that the United States has become the lowest-cost producer of manufactured products recently for the first time in the post-war period. Some effects of these changes on the trade and balance of payments positions of Japan in relation to North America are outlined. The paper includes data for selected years from 1950 to 1988 for real GDP per employed person, real output per hour for manufacturing, and unit labour costs for manufacturing for the United States, Japan, Canada and six of the major European countries.     

Searching for informed traders in stock markets: The case of Banco Popular

In this paper, we use several indicators of trade informativeness to search for informed traders on the final trading days of Banco Popular, the first and only bank resolution case to date in the euro area. In particular, we use the model proposed by Preve and Tse (2013) to estimate the adjusted daily probability of informed trading and the probability of symmetric order-flow shock using high-frequency transaction data. Our empirical results indicate that upon the anticipation of a possible liquidation of the bank, informed investors reacted to the bad news by placing more weight on it and that Banco Popular experienced large increases in both buy- and sell-orders during the last days of trading when the bank registered a significant depletion of its deposit base. Moreover, we find evidence supporting the presence of inside trading and illiquidity, especially after speculation in the media that the bank could face a liquidation. Our study has important implications for market participants and regulatory authorities.     

A study of intellectual property protection policies and innovation in the Indian pharmaceutical industry and beyond

We study the relationship between Trade Related Intellectual Property rights (TRIPS) and innovation. Using export data, this paper aims at assessing the relative impact of TRIPs on innovation, namely the ability of the Indian pharmaceutical industry to enter new markets with existing or new drugs. It examines whether India’s decision to comply with TRIPS influenced its innovation, and develops a theoretical model, where innovation, being measured by the likelihood of exports of one product from one identified country to partner countries, is influenced by factor, demand and trade conditions. The paper draws on quantitative data, using Probit and Logit techniques. The model is illustrated using empirical evidence from the Indian pharmaceutical industry. We find statistically significant evidence that India’s compliance with TRIPS is associated with new trade flows from India to partners. However we do not find statistically significant evidence of a relation between TRIPS compliance and value of exports. The interpretation is that TRIPS compliance has different effects: it is a necessary condition to favor innovation but it is not sufficient to increase exports value (competitiveness). Finally, we study to what extent this model can be generalized to other developing countries and/or industries.     

信息披露与内部人股票交易获利策略——以六起内部人股票交易为基础的案例研究

本文以近期A股市场内部人股票交易活跃的六家公司为例,通过考查信息披露与内部人股票交易间的关系,解释内部人股票交易的获利策略。研究发现,在允许内部人交易本公司股票的情况下,信息披露与内部人股票交易关系密切,内部人存在利用私有信息和策略性信息披露两类获利策略。信息权力是内部人股票交易的获利基础,公司业绩是影响内部人股票交易获利策略选择的重要因素,而法律诉讼风险并没有对我国内部人股票交易和信息披露产生明显约束作用。这些发现对完善我国资本市场内部人股票交易行为规范具有一定借鉴意义。     

Does regionalism lead to more global trade integration in East Asia?

Since early 1999, global trade liberalization has been sidelined as regional trade agreements (RTA) have become the preferred choice in East Asia. Does this shift suggest that global trade and welfare levels will be raised? In contrast to unilateral trade liberalization, RTAs may well cause both ‘trade creation’ and ‘trade diversion,’ so that their net effect on global trade and welfare becomes ambiguous. It is conjectured that RTAs among “natural trading partners” are more likely to be trade-creating, and less likely to divert trade from non-member countries, in which case welfare will improve. We find that if an RTA involves geographically proximate countries (measured either by distance or border), trade significantly increases among them. At the same time, geographical proximity also contributes to increasing trade between members and the rest of the world. We examine how existing or proposed East Asian trading blocs affect intra-bloc and extra-bloc trade and thereby global trade. We find that the East Asian RTAs are likely to create more trade among members without diverting trade from non-members.     

基于多元回归的中美高技术产品贸易研究

美国长期以来都是中国高技术产品贸易的重要合作伙伴,对中国贸易和相关产业的发展有着举足轻重的作用。本文首先对中美高技术产品贸易现状进行分析,明确中美高技术贸易所具有的贸易规模不断扩大、贸易构成不平衡和我国贸易竞争力薄弱的特点;再通过对中美高技术产品贸易影响因素的分析,从技术创新角度找到影响高技术产品贸易的主要因素;最后为促进两国贸易发展提出建议。     

The J-Curve: Evidence from commodity trade between Canada and the U.S.

Several studies in the literature have tried to assess the impact of real depreciation of the Canadian dollar on the Canadian trade balance. They have either relied on the trade data between Canada and the rest of the world or between Canada and her major trading partners. In this paper we consider the trade between Canada and her major trading partner, the U.S. However, unlike previous research, we disaggregate the trade data between the two countries by commodity. We use export and import data over the period 1962–2004 from 152 commodities and the bounds testing approach to cointegration and error-correction modeling and show that real depreciation of the Canadian dollar has short-run effects on the trade balance of two-thirds of the industries. However, only in 50% of the industries, the short-run effects translate into the long-run favorable effects.