Forecasting bond yields in the Brazilian fixed income market

This paper studies the predictive ability of a variety of models in forecasting the yield curve for the Brazilian fixed income market. We compare affine term structure models with a variation of the Nelson–Siegel exponential framework developed by Diebold and Li [Diebold, F., & Li, C. (2006). Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Yields. Journal of Econometrics, 130, 337–364]. Empirical results suggest that forecasts made with the latter methodology are superior, and appear to be more accurate at long horizons than other different benchmark forecasts. These results are important for policy-makers, as well as for portfolio and risk managers. Further research could study the predictive ability of such models in other emerging markets.     

Degrees of tax indexation and nominal interest rates: Effects of inflation on incentives to save and invest

This paper examines the effects of inflation expectations on nominal interest rates, and incentives to save and invest under partial and complete tax indexation schemes. One would expect that a partially indexed structure would be better than a non-indexed system. However, this is not the case—it reduces the adverse effects of inflation on the incentives to save, but accentuates them on the incentives to invest. Moreover, a change from a non-indexed tax structure to a fully-indexed structure will, ceteris paribus, lead to lower equilibrium interest rates, whereas a switch to a partially indexed system will imply higher rates.

Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields

Despite powerful advances in yield curve modeling in the last 20 years, comparatively little attention has been paid to the key practical problem of forecasting the yield curve. In this paper we do so. We use neither the no-arbitrage approach nor the equilibrium approach. Instead, we use variations on the Nelson–Siegel exponential components framework to model the entire yield curve, period-by-period, as a three-dimensional parameter evolving dynamically. We show that the three time-varying parameters may be interpreted as factors corresponding to level, slope and curvature, and that they may be estimated with high efficiency. We propose and estimate autoregressive models for the factors, and we show that our models are consistent with a variety of stylized facts regarding the yield curve. We use our models to produce term-structure forecasts at both short and long horizons, with encouraging results. In particular, our forecasts appear much more accurate at long horizons than various standard benchmark forecasts.     

The costs of suboptimal dynamic asset allocation: General results and applications to interest rate risk, stock volatility risk, and growth/value tilts

The recent theoretical asset allocation literature has derived optimal dynamic investment strategies in various advanced models of asset returns. But how sensitive is investor welfare to deviations from the theoretically optimal strategy? Will unsophisticated investors do almost as well as sophisticated investors? This paper develops a general theoretical framework for answering such questions and applies it to three specific models of interest rate risk, stochastic stock volatility, and mean reversion and growth/value tilts of stock portfolios. Among other things, we find that growth/value tilts are highly valuable, but the hedging of time-varying stock risk premia is less important.     

Monetary policy regimes and the term structure of interest rates

US monetary policy is investigated using a regime-switching no-arbitrage term structure model that relies on inflation, output, and the short interest rate as factors. The model is complemented with a set of assumptions that allow the dynamics of the private sector to be separated from monetary policy. The monetary policy regimes cannot be estimated if the yield curve is ignored during estimation. Counterfactual analysis evaluates importance of regimes in policy and shocks for the great moderation. The low-volatility regime of exogenous shocks plays an important role. Monetary policy contributes by trading off asymmetric responses of output and inflation under different regimes.     

Reexamining the term structure of interest rates and the interwar demand for money

This paper reexamines whether the term structure of interest rates, rather than merely a single interest rate, should be included in the demand for money of the interwar era. In contrast to earlier work, we use cointegration techniques to model the equilibrium/error correction process, and find that a sufficiently rich dynamic model using a single interest rate has considerable explanatory power. Nevertheless, we conclude that the inclusion of the term structure may help to explain the turbulent monetary dynamics of the Depression era.     

A tale of two yield curves: Modeling the joint term structure of dollar and euro interest rates

Modeling the joint term structure of interest rates in the United States and the European Union, the two largest economies in the world, is extremely important in international finance. In this article, we provide both theoretical and empirical analysis of multi-factor joint affine term structure models (ATSM) for dollar and euro interest rates. In particular, we provide a systematic classification of multi-factor joint ATSM similar to that of Dai and Singleton (2000). A principal component analysis of daily dollar and euro interest rates reveals four factors in the data. We estimate four-factor joint ATSM using the approximate maximum likelihood method of [A?t-Sahalia, 2002] and [A?t-Sahalia, forthcoming] and compare the in-sample and out-of-sample performances of these models using some of the latest nonparametric methods. We find that a new four-factor model with two common and two local factors captures the joint term structure dynamics in the US and the EU reasonably well.     

中国股票市场风险和收益风格效应的非参数检验

本文利用Kendall协同系数检验考察我国股票市场风险和收益的风格效应。通过实证研究首次发现各风格指数的收益率、总风险及指数特有风险均具有明显的分层结构,风格效应显著。对影响风险和收益的风格因素进行的分析表明:股票风险受规模因素的影响十分明显;而股票回报率受价值因素的影响比较显著,受规模因素的影响不明显。并进一步用Spearman相关系数考察了风险与收益之间的秩相关性。本文研究结果对资产配置和风险监管等问题具有参考价值。     

区域人力资源要素、产业结构、金融机构信贷投向的关系研究

寻找金融机构信贷投向的影响因素成为提升金融机构信贷资金投向正确性,及促进经济发展的重要途径。而在这些影响因素中,区域人力资源要素无疑是非常重要的一个。但是,区域人力资源要素对金融信贷投向的影响机制的相关研究还非常缺乏。本研究采用相关分析及结构模型建模方法对区域人力资源要素与金融机构信贷投向的影响效应进行实证分析。结果表明,人力资源要素对金融机构信贷投向具有积极的直接正向影响,同时,人力资源要素通过对产业结构的调整及优化作用对信贷投向产生了积极的间接影响作用。该研究不仅在理论上促进有关信贷理论的发展,完善信贷理论的研究体系;而且在实践中有助于促进金融信贷投向合理的方向。     

The approximation capabilities of the minflex-Laurents,translog, and generalized Leontief forms

This paper compares the approximation capabilities of the minflex-Laurents translog and minflex generalized Leontief cost functions with their translog and generalized Leontief counterparts in Monte Carlo experiments. The minflex Laurent specifications generally provided closer approximations to underlying technical and economic parameters. Imposition of nonlinear restrictions on some of the parameters of the minflex Laurent models yielded measurable improvement in estimated elasticities of substitutions, returns to scale, and rates of technical change.The refereeing process of this paper was handled through E. Appelbaum.     

清流县瑶上矿区滑脱构造特征及其对含煤地层的影响

文章通过瑶上矿区滑脱构造特征的分析和形成机理的探讨,分析了滑脱构造对含煤地层的影响,预测周边含煤地层的赋存情况,为周边找煤提供科学依据。     

分布式供能与循环经济的能源结构优化

认为分布式供能为城市循环经济发展过程中的能源结构优化提供了新的选择途径,是传统的集中式供能不可或缺的补充和替代,代表着新型绿色供能模式更新换代的发展趋向,成为许多城市发展循环经济的契入点.认为这一新型供能模式的启动与发展需要城市管理决策者的政策引导和社会力量参与的市场化运作.     

城镇化视角下长三角城市群产业结构优化与城乡收入差距

为了研究产业结构优化对城乡收入差距的影响,并考虑城镇化在其中的作用,选取长三角城市群为研究对象,使用泰尔指数对城乡收入差距进行测度,运用2009—2018年的面板数据,从产业结构高级化与产业结构合理化角度对城镇化在产业结构优化对城乡收入差距影响中发挥的作用进行实证检验。研究结果表明:产业结构优化有利于缩小城乡收入差距,城镇化在产业结构高级化与城乡收入差距的关系中发挥了中介效应;城镇化在产业结构合理化对城乡收入差距的影响中存在显著的双门槛效应:当城镇化水平较低时,产业结构合理化会缩小城乡收入差距,当城镇化水平超过72.9%时,产业结构合理化会扩大城乡收入差距。基于此,提出了优化第三产业内部结构和农村经济结构、合理规划城市发展的政策建议。     

产品市场竞争、融资约束与组织冗余结构

从产品市场和金融市场的视角,分析产品市场竞争对组织冗余结构的影响,并在此基础上研究融资约束的情境效应,最后讨论冗余结构偏离对企业绩效的影响。研究结果发现：产品市场竞争越激烈,企业持有的非沉淀性冗余资源比例越少;企业面临的融资约束程度越严重,表现为企业规模越小、企业负债率越低时,产品市场竞争对组织冗余结构的负向影响越强;最后,当企业实际冗余结构偏离标准冗余结构时,将会对企业绩效产生不利影响。研究结论为理论界和企业界进一步加深对组织冗余结构的理解和管理提供了新的理论诠释和实践指导。     

制度环境、控制权私利与流通权价值——来自我国上市公司股权分置改革的证据

文章借助我国上市公司的股权分置改革事件,运用控制权私利理论,分析了经济制度对流通权价值的影响。控制性股份的价值由现金流量的要求权和控制权私利两部分构成。流通性的提高总是能够提高现金流量权的价值,但由于控制权的专有性,上市流通对控制权价值的影响条件依存于控制权私利的大小。控制权私利越大,上市流通对控制性股份的价值的影响越小,从而控股股东愿意支付的对价越低。将经济制度作为公司控制权私利的外生决定变量,实证检验的结果与上述预期相符。     

企业需求、企业能力与企业社会责任的匹配探讨——一种新的企业履行社会责任的理论分析框架

本文首先研究了企业履行社会责任的模式并提出了企业社会责任的层次模型;其次,将企业需求与个人需求在企业生态学的范畴下进行了类比,提出了企业需求层次模型,并将企业需求归纳为企业履行社会责任的动力;再次,本文运用企业生命周期原理,将企业成长状况看作是衡量企业具有一定的履行社会责任能力的体现;最后,通过将企业需求、企业能力与企业社会责任进行匹配探讨,揭示了企业履行社会责任的动力和能力原理及其可能的行为,并得出了一些有意义的结论。