大众传媒在政府危机管理中的作用探析

大众传媒作为信息传播的载体，在政府危机管理过程中发挥着不可或缺的作用。本文主要介绍了政府在危机管理中运用大众传媒的作用，并就如何实现政府与传媒的良性互动提出一些建议。     

企业风险管理发展历程与新动向

随着社会经济的日益发展,企业经营面临着诸多挑战,在经营过程中随时可能出现的风险就是其中一项,风险的认识层次及管理质量对企业发展有着至关重要的作用,因此就管理者而言必须树立良好的风险意识并具备一定的风险处理能力。本文旨在回顾企业危机管理发展历程,总结当今学者对企业危机管理的前沿研究的基础上提出危机管理的新动向,及阐明作为管理者而言如何面对这种变化。     

基层寿险公司公共危机成因及应对策略研究

寿险业是一个承担着巨大风险的行业,这就要求它对危机要具有很强的敏感性。寿险业的诞生、成长和发展历程,证明了它在不断地应对危机和规避风险。近年来,基层公司面临的公共危机日益增多,对寿险从业人员特别是基层管理者提出严峻的挑战。文章分析了基层寿险公司产生公共关系危机的原因,阐述了正确认识公共危机的重要意义,提出处理公共危机一般性策略。     

危机处理——现代企业的必修课

现代企业面临的不确定性因素不断增加，企业无法避免随时可能发生的危机。文章对企业如何进行有效的危机处理．减少或削弱危机对企业的影响，保持企业经营的持续稳定性进行了探讨。     

大数据时代的政府形象塑造与危机公关

在互联网和通信技术飞速发展的20年后,一个属于大数据的时代到来。大数据时代话语权版图正在急剧改变,面对碎片化的信息政府应如何做好政治传播,怎样“用数据说话”化解危机,大数据无论是在常态管理,还是危机管理都给政府带来了全新的机遇与挑战。本文从大数据时代媒介传播的角度,分析了政府形象塑造所面临的挑战,阐述了大数据时代政府形象塑造的途径,并从政府形象塑造出发,提出了突发事件中政府的危机公关策略。     

新信息环境下的竞争情报与企业战略管理

信息革命带给企业一个全新的信息环境,即现实与虚拟并存的复合型信息环境,这使企业面临的内、外部环境的不确定性更加突出。作为消除不确定性的战略管理,其整个过程需要信息的支撑,这就为竞争情报与企业战略管理的互动和融合提供了基础。信息技术在竞争情报与企业战略管理的过程中的应用为这种互动和融合提供了技术支持,产生了新的企业战略管理模式。     

如何当好企业新闻发言人

企业新闻发言人是传播和维护企业形象的信息管理者、也是企业危机公关的核心人物,现正成为现代企业管理的新角色. 企业作为国民经济的重要基础产业,关系经济社会发展和千家万户,时刻被社会大众和媒体所关注,也离不开社会大众和媒体的支持与监督.近年来,我国企业的新闻发言人制度在政府新闻发言人制度的带动下蹒跚起步,但并不健全,很多只是流于形式,既不专业也不系统,多数企业对企业新闻发言人认识不到位,甚至于错位,并没有真正发挥新闻发言人的作用.     

危机管理的组织艺术

现代社会，由于环境的不确定性和人们对这种不确定性的认识能力的局限，企业面临危机的可能性越来越大。世界５００强企业中有８９％的主管认为，企业出现危机就像人的死亡一样是不可避免的。因此，如何应对危机和应用危机，已成为企业重要的战略管理能力和竞争优势的来源。下面我们从具体案例入手来详细讨论企业危机管理的有关问题。相似的经历不同的结果犤案例１犦１９８２年９月２９日和３０日，在芝加哥地区发生了有人因服用美国强生制药公司含氰化物的药片而中毒死亡的事故。开始，有３人因为服用这种药片而中毒死亡。但是随着消息的扩…     

加强企业财务危机管理妥善处理财务危机

财务危机就是企业在财务经营中显现的危险和机遇。企业财务是企业经营的中枢,良好的财务运作是企业发展的基础,财务危机的存在无不威胁企业生存发展,因此,强化财务危机管理是现代企业不可回避的重要课题,财务危机管理是指组织或个人在财务运作过程中通过危机监督,危机预控、危机决策和危机处理等手段,达到避免和减少危机产生的危害,直至将危险转化为机会的过程,这就是说,财务危机管理是企业界财务经营的一个过程,其管理的主体是管理组织和管理者个人;其管理的对象是财务危机,它是一种经济现象,而不是经济实体,这就决定了管理更具挑战性;其管理的手段是监测、预控、计划、决策和处理,也可称作为财务危机管理体制和职能;其管理的目的就是避免、减少危机的危害,直至将危险转能;其管理的目的就是避免、减少危机的危害,直至将危机转化为机会,推动企业持续发展。     

中层管理者职业困境破局

中层危机是中国企业难以回避的痛楚.一直以来,业界往往从企业的角度谈论中层的缺失与管理危机.但事实上,作为中层管理者自身,也面临着职业发展的困境.     

Towards risk-aware roadmapping: Influencing factors and practical measures

In spite of the significance of uncertainty and risk in strategy, there is still a general lack of attention to their explicit consideration in strategic planning processes. This lack of attention is also obvious in roadmapping in its application to strategic and innovation planning. This paper introduces and explores the concept of risk-aware roadmapping, which explicitly manages uncertainty and risk in roadmapping, and sheds light on what such a process will entail given the factors that influence it. The study adopts a qualitative approach involving in-depth interviews with roadmapping experts and case studies of roadmapping exercises. This paper contributes to knowledge by providing a process that adds three significant steps to the standard risk management process, to suit roadmapping and strategic front-end innovation planning and identifying the risk of missing valuable innovation opportunities, which is very often overlooked in practice. Theoretical implications for organisational sensemaking are identified especially in the use and management of constraints for sensemaking activities such as innovation planning.     

Project Team Communication in Financial Service Innovation

We examine the role of communication during the innovation process of new financial services from an information processing perspective. A contingency framework is developed on the role of communication and its impact on new financial services success. In order to assess the unique nature of the services context of this study, this framework also depicts the moderating impact of the specific services characteristics (intangibility, inseparability, heterogeneity and perishability) on project communication during the innovation process. Project team communication is conceptualized by three types of communication: (1) intra-project communication, (2) extra-project communication involving (i) organizational liaisons, which refer to the transfer of intra-organizational communication by project members and (ii) gatekeepers of information, which refer to the transfer of extra-organizational information by customer-contact personnel. The relationship between project team communication and the reduction of innovative uncertainty on new financial service success is examined. Our contingency model implies that managers have to recognize the critical communication roles that project members and frontline employees may fulfill. The communication flows mediated by these individuals foster the uncertainty reduction during the innovation process. Moreover, financial service innovation management should conceive the service characteristics as sources of task uncertainty, as they may lower project communication effectiveness, i.e. the reduction of innovative uncertainty. Following the managerial implications of our model, we finally formulate directions for future research.     

Epidemiological versus meteorological forecasts: Best practice for linking models to policymaking

Weather forecasts, climate change projections, and epidemiological predictions all represent domains that are using forecast data to take early action for risk management. However, the methods and applications of the modeling efforts in each of these three fields have been developed and applied with little cross-fertilization. This perspective identifies best practices in each domain that can be adopted by the others, which can be used to inform each field separately as well as to facilitate a more effective combined use for the management of compound and evolving risks. In light of increased attention to predictive modeling during the COVID-19 pandemic, we identify three major areas that all three of these modeling fields should prioritize for future investment and improvement: (1) decision support, (2) conveying uncertainty, and (3) capturing vulnerability.     

Forecasting,uncertainty and risk; perspectives on clinical decision-making in preventive and curative medicine

Should we screen the population routinely for the presence of breast or prostatic cancer? This simple proposition masks a landscape of complexities, including the economics of screening, the prevalence and probability of the disease, desired frequencies of intervention and a willingness to adopt preventive screening. These ‘risk factors’ form part of a broader landscape of uncertainty that characterises the intricacies of clinical decision-making. Deepening our understanding of the way in which clinicians evaluate risk and uncertainty requires a framing of insights into language, communication, psychology and epistemology. This paper explores perspectives in forecasting and uncertainty as a basis for understanding individuals’ perceptions of risk when assessing their options in both preventative and curative medicine. At the heart of the issue is the prevalence of diagnostic error; this paper argues for the use of systematised approaches to medical error management and inclusive approaches to research in the field. The advantages of augmenting the management of unforeseen consequences through an improved understanding of the issues that are of concern to patients, carers, and medical practitioners alike forms a key construct in this paper. We conclude with an exploration of potential opportunities for improvements in medical practice: changes that may reduce the disbenefits of uncertainty and enhance the management of the general risks associated with clinical decision-making.     

实物期权理论分析与应用

随着世界经济全球化的进程进一步加快,企业面临市场中不确定性越来越大,传统的投资决策理论（以净现值法为代表）已越来越不能适应公司投资决策的需要。本文首先指出传统的风险投资项目价值评估方法的局限性,然后对实物期权理论加以介绍,最后介绍实物期权的应用框架。     

管理创新过程中的风险管理

任何创新都有风险,管理创新也是如此.管理创新风险不仅具有风险的一般特征,而且具有自身的特殊性,只有正确认识管理创新风险的特征及其效应,才能有效地进行管理创新.管理创新风险主要来源于市场的不确定性、管理创新结果的不确定性及管理创新过程的不确定性等方面.对管理创新风险进行管理的基本思路是,加强管理创新全过程的信息管理,优化管理创新决策行为,建立管理创新的风险过滤机制.这样才能使管理创新更好地实现"避害"而"趋利".     

新时代国有企业改革的痛点和主要方向

世界经济的不确定性增强、全球价值链重构等给中国深化国有企业改革带来了机遇和挑战。国有企业改革的核心原则是竞争中立,以进一步优化市场竞争环境,提升资源配置效率。国有企业改革需要解决现代企业制度不健全、风险控制体系不完善、竞争力和盈利能力不够强、结构性矛盾突出等问题。中国需要在强化混合所有制改革、完善税收体系改革、深化金融体系改革、推进会计制度改革等方面采取有效措施,深化国有企业改革。     

Does risk sharing increase with risk aversion and risk when commitment is limited?

I consider a risk-sharing game with limited commitment, and study how the discount factor above which perfect risk sharing is self-enforcing in the long run depends on agents׳ risk aversion and the riskiness of their endowment. When agents face no aggregate risk, a mean-preserving spread may destroy the sustainability of perfect risk sharing if each agent׳s endowment may take more than three values. With aggregate risk the same can happen with only two possible endowment realizations. With respect to risk aversion the intuitive comparative statics result holds without aggregate risk, but it holds only under strong assumptions in the presence of aggregate risk. In simple settings with two endowment values I also show that the threshold discount factor co-moves with popular measures of risk sharing.     

“风险熵”量度税务筹划风险研究

税务筹划的实施由于诸多不确定因素的存在而面临着错综复杂的风险是一个不争的事实。本文根据风险是事件本身的不确定性这一特征,提出了一个称为“风险熵”的新概念。在此基础上,应用概率统计理论推导“风险熵”的数学表达式以作为税务筹划方案风险程度的评价指标。     

Dynamic interaction of risk–return trade-offs between oil market and China’s stock market: An analysis from the risk preferences perspective

The risk–return trade-off refers to the compensation required by investors for bearing risks, which can be viewed as the risk preference of investors in a market. The current study investigates the dynamic interdependence of risk–return trade-offs between China’s stock market and the crude oil market from the perspective of risk preference of investors, which is designed to explore the transmission process of investors’ risk preference in both markets. Specifically, this study applies the time-varying parameter GARCH-M model, namely TVP-GARCH-M model, to characterize the time-dependent risk–return trade-offs (investors’ risk preferences) in the crude oil and China’s stock markets, then examines their relationship through Granger causality tests. Results show that a variation in risk preferences of the oil market investors can dramatically cause a variation in risk preferences of the Chinese stock market investors, while the risk preference of investors in the Chinese stock market does not lead to that in the crude oil market, which is in accordance with expectations. The dynamic effect of investors’ risk appetite in the crude oil market is further examined by the TVP-VAR model. The findings of this work suggest that there generally exists a positive impact of investors’ risk preference in the oil market and that the effect is time-varying to a greater degree during the short and medium term. Moreover, responses of the Chinese stock market investors’ risk preference were more significant during the 2008 financial crisis. Additionally, the empirical results remain robust when applying alternative crude oil prices and China’s stock prices.