Choosing union representation: the role of attitudes and emotions

In the United States, most unions are recognised by a majority vote of employees through union representation elections administered by the government. Most empirical studies of individual voting behaviour during union representation elections use a rational choice model. Recently, however, some have posited that voting is often influenced by emotions. We evaluate competing hypotheses about the determinants of union voting behaviour by using data collected from a 2010 representation election at Delta Air Lines, a US‐based company. In addition to the older rational choice framework, multiple regression results provide support for an emotional choice model. Positive feelings toward the employer are statistically significantly related to voting ‘no’ in a representation election, while positive feelings toward the union are related to a ‘yes’ vote. Effect sizes for the emotion variables were generally larger than those for the rational choice variables, suggesting that emotions may play a key role in representation election outcomes.     

Binary choice under social interactions: an empirical study with and without subjective data on expectations

This paper examines two methods of modeling binary choice with social interactions: models assuming homogeneous rational expectations and models using subjective data on expectations. Exploiting a unique survey conducted during the 1996 US presidential election that was designed to study voting behavior under social context, we find that in various model specifications using subjective expectations consistently improves models' goodness‐of‐fit; and that subjective expectations are not rational as formulated by Brock and Durlauf. Specifically, members' characteristics are individually important in forming expectations. We also include correlated effect in the rational expectation model. This extension provides a remedy to the selection issues that often arise in social interaction models. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Party loyalty as habit formation

In most democracies, at least two out of any three individuals vote for the same party in sequential elections. This paper presents a model in which vote‐persistence is partly due to the dependence of the utility on the previous voting decision. This dependence is termed ‘habit formation’. The model and its implications are supported by individual‐level panel data on the presidential elections in the USA in 1972 and 1976. For example, it is found that the voting probability is a function of the lagged choice variable, even when the endogeneity of the lagged variable is accounted for, and that the tendency to vote for different parties in sequential elections decreased with the age of the voter. Furthermore, using structural estimation the effect of habit is estimated, while allowing unobserved differences among respondents. The structural habit parameter implies that the effect of previous votes on the current decision is quite strong. The habit model fits the data better than the traditional ‘party identification’ model. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating the distribution of welfare effects using quantiles

This paper proposes a framework to model welfare effects that are associated with a price change in a population of heterogeneous consumers. The framework is similar to that of Hausman and Newey (Econometrica, 1995, 63, 1445–1476), but allows for more general forms of heterogeneity. Individual demands are characterized by a general model that is nonparametric in the regressors, as well as monotonic in unobserved heterogeneity, allowing us to identify the distribution of welfare effects. We first argue why a decision maker should care about this distribution. Then we establish constructive identification, propose a sample counterparts estimator, and analyze its large‐sample properties. Finally, we apply all concepts to measuring the heterogeneous effect of a change of gasoline price using US consumer data and find very substantial differences in individual effects across quantiles.     

The Paramour’s Advantage: Sexual Favoritism and Permissibly Unfair Discrimination

Despite the prevalence of sexual favoritism in the workplace, there is much debate over whether this phenomenon rises to the level of prohibited discrimination and harassment. While the United States Supreme Court has not yet involved itself in adjudicating issues of sexual favoritism, the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, however, has issued guidelines. The California Supreme Court recently addressed the “sexual favoritism as sexual harassment/discrimination” issue and, absent better guidance from the federal courts, the California decision provides interesting insights for the legal and business communities. This article explores key issues involving workplace romances, sexual favoritism, and Title VII’s prohibition of sexual harassment as an illegal form of discrimination based on sex. We use the recent California Supreme Court decision in Miller to illustrate the legal and managerial challenges facing policy makers and management practitioners. We conclude with a discussion of policy alternatives for creating a discrimination- and harassment-free workplace while effectively managing workplace romances and instances of sexual favoritism.

A comparison of two voting models to forecast election into The National Baseball Hall of Fame

We present a comparison of two voting models to forecast election into The National Baseball Hall of Fame by the Baseball Writers Association of America. Although both voting models provide similar predictions on which eligible players should be elected into the Baseball Hall of Fame, we believe that the voting model that uses individual performance variables rather than a single performance index is marginally better because it allows the data to determine the relative importance of the individual performance variables included in the single performance index. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Panel Data Models

We analyse the finite sample properties of maximum likelihood estimators for dynamic panel data models. In particular, we consider transformed maximum likelihood (TML) and random effects maximum likelihood (RML) estimation. We show that TML and RML estimators are solutions to a cubic first‐order condition in the autoregressive parameter. Furthermore, in finite samples both likelihood estimators might lead to a negative estimate of the variance of the individual‐specific effects. We consider different approaches taking into account the non‐negativity restriction for the variance. We show that these approaches may lead to a solution different from the unique global unconstrained maximum. In an extensive Monte Carlo study we find that this issue is non‐negligible for small values of T and that different approaches might lead to different finite sample properties. Furthermore, we find that the Likelihood Ratio statistic provides size control in small samples, albeit with low power due to the flatness of the log‐likelihood function. We illustrate these issues modelling US state level unemployment dynamics.     

Telecast Deregulation and Competitive Balance

A bstract . In 1984 the Supreme Court granted individual schools the right to negotiate football telecasts , a privilege previously held by the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA). This paper provides an empirical analysis of the impact of that decision on competitive balance in college football. Although changes in team and league winning percentages varied among conferences, the average effect indicates greater competitive balance in the post-decision period. These results support the Supreme Court's contention that restrictions on television appearances are not needed to equalize competitive success.     

Affirmative action: Federal support,supreme court decisions,and human resource management

This article explores the historical background of affirmative action in the United States, and reviews haw federal support for it has changed since the Civil War. Several recent US Supreme Court cases deciding affirmative action issues are discussed, with speculation about the future of affirmative action in light of these decisions. The article also discusses the implications of these rulings for human resource practitioners.     

Geographical Proximity and Mutual Funds' Proxy Voting Behavior

This paper examines the influence of geographical proximity on mutual fund proxy voting decisions. Using mutual fund proxy voting data for the sample period July 1, 2003 to June 30, 2004, we find that fund managers vote more in favor of management of locally headquartered firms. The results are strong for proposals related to executive compensation, anti‐takeover provisions, social and political issues. We provide evidence to show that bias in proxy voting is not being driven by informational advantage; voting bias is prevalent in small as well as large size companies. Additionally, the voting pattern suggests that geographical proximity does not facilitate in better corporate monitoring as revealed in their voting decisions. We find that local fund managers vote more favorably in those proposals which do not increase shareholders' wealth and rights. Our results suggest that familiarity and social interaction between fund managers and firm executives located in the same geographic area might explain the local bias in mutual fund proxy voting behavior. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Broadening the Definition of Unlawful Retaliation Under Title VII

Title VII retaliation cases have become a larger part of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) caseload, and this development should be a growing concern for business. By addressing the question of exactly when a prohibited retaliatory action has been taken against an employee, the United States Supreme Court’s June 2006 decision in Burlington Northern & Santa Fe Railway Co. v. Sheila White ended a significant disagreement among the various appellate courts on the issue. The Supreme Court answered two specific questions regarding retaliation for raising a claim of sexual discrimination. First, the Court decided that the retaliatory conduct need not take place within the employment setting; and, second, it held that a materially adverse action requires only that a reasonable employee would be deterred from making, filing, or supporting a claim of workplace discrimination to the EEOC, the courts, or the employer. Employers need to revise and update their internal policies and procedures to ensure that their firms comply with these new standards.     

A Cost System Approach to the Stochastic Directional Technology Distance Function with Undesirable Outputs: The Case of us Banks in 2001–2010

This paper offers a methodology to address the endogeneity of inputs in the directional technology distance function (DTDF)‐based formulation of banking technology which explicitly accommodates the presence of undesirable nonperforming loans—an inherent characteristic of the bank's production due to its exposure to credit risk. Specifically, we model nonperforming loans as an undesirable output in the bank's production process. Since the stochastic DTDF describing banking technology is likely to suffer from the endogeneity of inputs, we propose addressing this problem by considering a system consisting of the DTDF and the first‐order conditions from the bank's cost minimization problem. The first‐order conditions also allow us to identify the ‘cost‐optimal’ directional vector for the banking DTDF, thus eliminating the uncertainty associated with an ad hoc choice of the direction. We apply our cost system approach to the data on large US commercial banks for the 2001–2010 period, which we estimate via Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods subject to theoretical regularity conditions. We document dramatic distortions in banks' efficiency, productivity growth and scale elasticity estimates when the endogeneity of inputs is assumed away and/or the DTDF is fitted in an arbitrary direction. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Real‐Time Nowcasting of GDP: A Factor Model vs. Professional Forecasters

We perform a fully real‐time nowcasting (forecasting) exercise of US GDP growth using Giannone et al.'s (2008) factor model framework. To this end, we have constructed a real‐time database of vintages from 1997 to 2010 for a panel of variables, enabling us to reproduce, for any given day in that range, the exact information that was available to a real‐time forecaster. We track the daily evolution of the model performance along the real‐time data flow and find that the precision of the nowcasts increases with information releases and the model fares well relative to the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF).     

Modeling voter choice to predict the final outcome of two-stage elections

Most election forecasting research to date has been conducted in the context of single-round elections. However, more than 40 countries in the world employ a two-stage process, where actual voting data are available between the first and the second rounds to help politicians understand their position in relation to each other and to voter preferences and to help them predict the final outcome of the election. In this study we take advantage of the theoretical foundation on voter behavior from the political science literature and the recent methodological advances in choice modeling to develop a Nested Logit Factor Model of voter choice which we use to predict the final outcome of two stage elections and gain insights about the underlying political landscape. We apply the proposed model to data from the first stage and predict the final outcome of two stage elections based on the inferences made from the first stage results. We demonstrate how our proposed model can help politicians understand their competitive position immediately after the first round of actual voting and test its predictive accuracy in the run-off election across 11 different state governorship elections.     

Putting a Big Chill on a “Big Hurt:” Genuine Interest in Employment of Salts in Assessing Protection Under the National Labor Relations Act

As union membership has continued to decline steadily in the US, union organizers have become more creative and vigilant with their organizing strategies. Chief among these strategies has been “salting,” a process by which unions attempt to organize employees from the inside rather than the outside. The Supreme Court has ruled that, under the National Labor Relations Act, “salts” cannot be discriminated against solely on the basis of their status as salts. This paper examines employer responses to resist salting efforts, including a recent decision by the National Labor Relations Board, which redefines the landscape under which salting activities can be conducted and considered protected activity.     

CONSTRUCTING OPTIMAL DENSITY FORECASTS FROM POINT FORECAST COMBINATIONS

Decision makers often observe point forecasts of the same variable computed, for instance, by commercial banks, IMF and the World Bank, but the econometric models used by such institutions are frequently unknown. This paper shows how to use the information available on point forecasts to compute optimal density forecasts. Our idea builds upon the combination of point forecasts under general loss functions and unknown forecast error distributions. We use real‐time data to forecast the density of US inflation. The results indicate that the proposed method materially improves the real‐time accuracy of density forecasts vis‐à‐vis those from the (unknown) individual econometric models. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multivariate choices and identification of social interactions

This paper considers the identification of social interaction effects in the context of multivariate choices. First, we generalize the theoretical social interaction model to allow individuals to make interdependent choices in different activities. Based on the theoretical model, we propose a simultaneous equation network model and discuss the identification of social interaction effects in the econometric model. We also provide an empirical example to show the empirical salience of this model. Using the Add Health data, we find that a student's academic performance is not only affected by academic performance of his peers but also affected by screen‐related activities of his peers.     

Parental altruism, life expectancy and dynamically inefficient equilibria

This paper presents a continuous time overlapping-generation (OLG) model which generalizes the Blanchard–Buiter–Weil model and clarifies the relationships between dynastic altruism, the length of planning horizons, and dynamic inefficiency. Our main innovation relies on the introduction of parental altruism, whose intensity is variable. We first show that parental altruism and life expectancy do favor overaccumulation. Second, we give a condition that explains why the Ramsey model may only display dynamic efficiency. These theoretical results are illustrated by a parameterization from US data. Our numerical exercises suggest that the US economy is dynamically efficient, mainly because of the shortness of life expectancy.     

愤怒的哭墙

温州金融改革,被赋予"打破金融垄断"之重望。但正如中国民营企业联合会会长保育钧4月3日在博鳌亚洲论坛"民间金融与银行业的开放"分论坛上的发言所称——"吴英案的根源是金融垄断,是银行机构不合理,监管不到位的结果"。接下来,让我们看看案件主角的父亲,是如何煎熬度日的——"对于世界你是一名士兵,对于母亲你是整个世界。",很多人将吴英的命运和改革、体制、国家等大词联系在一起,但作为父亲,吴永正不关心这些,他只关心女儿的生死     

On the Low‐Frequency Relationship Between Public Deficits and Inflation

We estimate the low‐frequency relationship between fiscal deficits and inflation and pay special attention to its potential time variation by estimating a time‐varying vector autoregression model for US data from 1900 to 2011. We find the strongest relationship neither in times of crisis nor in times of high public deficits, but from the mid 1960s up to 1980. Employing a structural decomposition of the low‐frequency relationship and further narrative evidence, we interpret our results such that the low‐frequency relationship between fiscal deficits and inflation is strongly related to the conduct of monetary policy and its interaction with fiscal policy after World War II.Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.