Wage inequality, technology and trade: 21st century evidence

This paper describes and explains some of the principal trends in the wage and skill distribution in recent decades. Increases in wage inequality started in the US and UK at the end of the 1970s, but are now widespread. A good fraction of this inequality trend is due to technology-related increases in the demand for skilled workers outstripping the growth of their supply. Since the early 1990s, labor markets have become more polarized with jobs in the middle third of the wage distribution shrinking and those in the bottom and top third rising. I argue that this is because computerization complements the most skilled tasks, but substitutes for routine tasks performed by middle wage occupations such as clerks, leaving the demand for the lowest skilled service tasks largely unaffected. Finally, I argue that technology is partly endogenous, for example it has been spurred by trade with China. Thus, trade does matter for changes in the labor market, but through a different mechanism than conventionally thought.     

Supply of skilled labour and organizational change

The paper develops a model where the structure of organizations is a choice variable for firms and depends on conditions in the labour market. It shows that an increase in the supply of skilled labour may lead firms to adopt organizations with less hierarchical levels. This organizational change increases firms' demand for skilled agents and qualitatively modifies their jobs (i.e. the set of tasks assigned to skilled employees) thus increasing the skilled wage premium.     

Outsourcing and computers: Impact on urban skill level and rent

Cities in the U.S. with a higher initial share of college graduates have had a greater subsequent increase in this share over the past two decades. Concurrently, housing prices have grown faster in these skilled cities. This paper argues that the diffusion of computers and outsourcing may partly explain these two phenomena. In the presented model, skilled workers are more productive in skilled cities and need unskilled support services. The cities' unskilled workers can perform the support services, but when it is cheaper, such services can be undertaken by computers or outsourced to less-skilled cities. New technologies facilitating computerization and outsourcing can increase the skill share and housing prices in skilled cities relative to less-skilled cities, under reasonable assumptions. The basic economics is that the new technologies diminish the demand for unskilled workers in skilled cities and permit skilled workers to earn higher wages, which in turn increases the supply of skilled workers in skilled cities and drives up housing prices. Empirically, this paper documents five stylized facts that the theory can rationalize. Particularly important is rising skill premium in skilled cities relative to less-skilled cities, which supports a production theory involving shifts in labor demand.     

TRADE LIBERALIZATION,LABOR DEMAND SHIFTS AND EARNINGS INEQUALITY IN SINGAPORE

This article investigates the relative wage between skilled and low skilled labor in a small open economy with traditionally few labor market rigidities. It looks at the role of relative skills demand and supply in determining skills premium and explores the extent to which trade liberalization affects the skills wage gap. Indications are that greater openness is linked to higher labor demand elasticity and/or technological progress. The evidence also suggests that rapid acceleration in labor demand for skills and trade liberalization has widened the wage gap between skilled and low skilled labor. This result persists regardless of industry type.     

Wage premia and skill upgrading in Italy: why didn't the hound bark?

This paper presents firm-level evidence on the change of the employment share and the wage premium of non-manual workers in Italian manufacturing during the nineties. We find that the relative stability of the aggregate wage premium and employment share hides offsetting disaggregate forces: technical progress raises the relative demand for skilled labor within firms, whereas demand changes associated with trade reduce the relative demand for skills. Moreover, it is within the class of non-manual workers that most of the action takes place: the wage premium and employment share of executives rise substantially, while those of clerks fall in a similar proportion. Finally, we find that the export status of firms plays a key role in explaining labor market dynamics: exporters account for most of both demand-related and technology-related shifts. Overall, our results for Italy question the conventional view that the labor market is “rigid” due to labor market institutions.     

Employees' entrepreneurial contributions to firms in Russia, 1995–2004

This article examines how employee self‐reported entrepreneurial contributions evolved in firms operating in Russia in 1995–2004 and whether changes can be explained by Akerlof's theory of implicit gift exchange in labour contracts. We find that these contributions were indeed influenced by wage premia and shifting work norms, declining by about a half during the period and with a particularly marked fall in contributions by manual workers. The trend was found among foreign‐owned, private Russian‐owned and state‐owned companies. Akerlof's model therefore helps explain Russian workers' changing behaviour.     

Firms' investments in general training and the skilled labour market

An adverse selection model is analysed, where firms can train or hire a skilled worker. In equilibrium, the market wage is determined by supply and demand. The quality of the supplied skilled labour is negatively biased, because workers stem from firms that shut down and from firms that observed their trainee's bad quality during the training. If fewer firms were to shut down, then the supplied average quality deteriorates and the incentive to train increases. The incentive is inefficient, because firms must share the informational rent and they free-ride. Ex ante workers may wish to increase the firms' bargaining power.     

Spatial changes in labour market inequality

We study spatial changes in labour market inequality for US states and MSAs using Census and American Community Survey data between 1980 and 2010. We report evidence of significant spatial variations in education employment shares and in the college wage premium for US states and MSAs, and show that the pattern of shifts through time has resulted in increased spatial inequality. Because relative supply of college versus high school educated workers has risen faster at the spatial level in places with higher initial supply levels, we also report a strong persistence and increased inequality of spatial relative demand. Bigger relative demand increases are observed in more technologically advanced states that have experienced faster increases in R&D and computer usage, and in states where union decline has been fastest. Finally, we show the increased concentration of more educated workers into particular spatial locations and rising spatial wage inequality are important features of labour market polarization, as they have resulted in faster employment growth in high skill occupations, but also in a higher demand for low wage workers in low skill occupations. Overall, our spatial analysis complements research findings from labour economics on wage inequality trends and from urban economics on agglomeration effects connected to education and technology.     

Progressive Taxes and the Labour Market: Is the Trade–off Between Equality and Efficiency Inevitable?

Does an income tax harm economic efficiency more the more progressive it is? Public economics provides a strong case for a definite ‘yes’. But at least three forces may pull in the other direction. First, low–wage workers may on average have more elastic labour supply schedules than high–wage workers, in which case progressive taxes contribute to a more efficient allocation of the total tax burden. Second, in non–competitive labour markets, progressive taxes may encourage wage moderation, and hence reduce the equilibrium level of unemployment. And third, if wage setters have egalitarian objectives, progressive taxes may reduce the need for redistribution in pre–tax wages, and hence increase the demand for low–skilled workers. This paper surveys the theoretical, as well as the empirical literature about labour supply, taxes and wage setting. We conclude that in a second best world, the trade–off between equality and efficiency is not always inevitable.     

Wages,non-wage characteristics,and predominantly male jobs

This paper estimates the wage premium associated with working in predominantly male jobs. It also examines whether this wage premium is greater than the compensation workers demand for the less desirable non-wage characteristics of such jobs. The coefficients of the change in the proportion of men in an occupation on the change in wages for quits and layoffs provide opposing biased estimates of the wage premium; because workers who voluntarily quit move to better matches, but those that are laid off accept jobs from the representative distribution of job offers. Specifically, when the premium paid over- (under-)compensates for undesirable work characteristics, the quit estimate is a downward (upward) biased estimate of the wage premium, while the layoff estimate is biased upward (downward). Results from the U.S. National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) and the U.S. Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) indicate that: (1) the estimated bounds of the wage premium are large; and (2) the wage premium overcompensates for the non-wage characteristics of male jobs.     

Who Benefits from Marriage?*

The phenomenon that married men earn higher average wages than unmarried men – the marriage premium – is well known. However, the robustness of the premium across the wage distribution and the underlying causes of the marriage premium are unclear. Focusing on the entire wage distribution and employing recently developed semi‐non‐parametric tests for quantile treatment effects, our findings cast doubt on the robustness of the premium. We find that the premium is explained by selection above the median, whereas a positive premium is obtained only at very low wages. The causal effect at low wages may be attributable to employer discrimination.     

The Central Government-Private Sector Wage Differential

Since Ehrenberg and Schwarz (1986) there has been a plethora of articles investigating the relationship between public and private sector wages. This article examines part of this post 1986 literature by reviewing articles that examine central government-private sector wage differentials. In sum, most articles find that there is a premium paid to central government workers, although the premium has declined in recent years. In developing countries, however, the differential is usually negative. Women and minorities tend to do better in the public sector relative to their private sector counterparts. The evidence on union premiums between sectors is mixed, although the premium tends to be higher in the private sector. However public sector union workers do not do much better than private sector union members. The magnitude of all of the wage differentials discussed are sensitive to the estimation technique and data source used. The most common explanation for the public sector wage premium is economic rent accruing to government workers, although the public sector wage determination literature suggests that the differential is due to returns to political and 'vote producing' activities not relevant in the private sector.     

Do Low‐Wage Workers React Less to Longer Unemployment Benefits? Quasi‐Experimental Evidence*

The fact that unemployed workers have different abilities to smooth consumption entails heterogeneous responses to extended unemployment benefits. Our empirical exercise explores a quasi‐experimental setting generated by an increase in the benefits entitlement period. The results suggest a hump‐shape response of unemployment duration over the one‐year pre‐unemployment wage distribution; individuals at the bottom and top of the wage distribution reacted less than those in the interquartile range. This behaviour of job searchers is consistent with labour supply models with unemployment insurance and savings. It questions the optimality of very long entitlement periods to target the unemployment experiences of low‐wage workers.     

Pre-crisis reforms,austerity measures and the public-private wage gap in two emerging economies

This paper analyzes crisis adjustments of the public and private sectors in two emerging market economies, Croatia and Serbia, during the 2008–2011 period. It focuses on public-private wage gaps at the onset of and during the crisis, decomposed into structural and composition effects using an extension to the Oaxaca-Blinder method based on Recentered Influence Function (RIF) regressions and reweighting. The main results indicate that at the beginning of the crisis public sector workers in both countries enjoyed a significant wage premium, with the premium in Serbia being about three times higher than in Croatia. During the crisis, both countries experienced a similar increase of the premium, with Croatia reaching the size of gap usually estimated for EU countries, while Serbia stayed largely ahead. The results also show that the wage distribution in the public sector is more compressed than in the private sector in both countries, which is further exacerbated by the crisis. Despite the introduced austerity measures, public sector workers continue to enjoy well-protected and privileged jobs in terms of wages relative to their private sector counterparts. Structural reforms undertaken prior to the crisis played a decisive role in determining the countries’ responses to the crisis.     

The Labour Market Effects of Increases in Social Insurance Premium: Evidence from Japan

Exploiting heterogeneous variations in labour cost increases due to Japan's 2003 social insurance premium reform as a natural experiment, we estimate the impacts of the increased social insurance premiums on employment, working hours and payroll costs. Using the difference‐in‐differences method with establishment fixed effects, we find that firms reduce the number of employees and increase average annual earnings from longer working hours in response to an exogenous increase in labour costs without productivity gains. Firms manage to pay for this increase in the average wage paid to the remaining workers by reducing the number of employees to keep total payroll costs unchanged. In contrast, since social insurance premiums are shared equally between employees and employers, firms pay the remaining half premiums that they are imposed with. Sub‐sample analyses show that firms adhering to a labour hoarding policy did fire many workers taking advantage of the 2003 reform. This may indicate that the reform provided a good excuse to cut employment in firms that had been forced to comply with a labour hoarding policy even in an over‐employment situation, which is more likely in sectors and countries where dismissals are rigorously regulated.     

Effect of Trade on the Demand for Skilled and Unskilled Workers

We use an input–output model to examine the effects of trade and domestic consumption, technology and labor productivity on skilled and unskilled worker demand. We found that trade was not the major contributor to changes in demand for skilled and unskilled labor during 1972–92, counter to the continuing debate on the trade-widening wage gap linkage. We found that skill intensity, i.e. the ratio of high-skilled to low-skilled workers for exports compared with imports, exceeded one during 1972–92, but did not increase. We explore alternative definitions of skilled and unskilled, and find our results to be robust to these alternative definitions.     

Do inter-city differences in intra-city wage differentials have any interesting implications?

Recent research has related characteristics of cities to differences in the distribution of wages across workers with different skill levels. We demonstrate that these differences in wage differentials arise naturally as a compensating variation in Rosen’s theoretical model of inter-city wages. For example, if the income elasticity of demand for housing services is less than unity, cities with higher house prices will have smaller money wage differentials between low and high skill workers. This result has no implications for differences in either absolute or relative real productivity or welfare of unskilled workers. Similarly, changes in the amenity of an urban area may result in changes in relative wages of skilled and unskilled workers with no implications for real productivity or welfare differentials.Empirical tests in which housing cost differentials are added as a determinant of inter-city differences in an intra-urban wage differential model provide empirical confirmation of the theoretical expectations. It appears that intra-urban money wage differentials, differences in the quality of life, and variation in the cost of living in each city are jointly determined variables just as Rosen’s model of inter-city wage differentials predicts.     

Do inter-city differences in intra-city wage differentials have any interesting implications?

Recent research has related characteristics of cities to differences in the distribution of wages across workers with different skill levels. We demonstrate that these differences in wage differentials arise naturally as a compensating variation in Rosen’s theoretical model of inter-city wages. For example, if the income elasticity of demand for housing services is less than unity, cities with higher house prices will have smaller money wage differentials between low and high skill workers. This result has no implications for differences in either absolute or relative real productivity or welfare of unskilled workers. Similarly, changes in the amenity of an urban area may result in changes in relative wages of skilled and unskilled workers with no implications for real productivity or welfare differentials.Empirical tests in which housing cost differentials are added as a determinant of inter-city differences in an intra-urban wage differential model provide empirical confirmation of the theoretical expectations. It appears that intra-urban money wage differentials, differences in the quality of life, and variation in the cost of living in each city are jointly determined variables just as Rosen’s model of inter-city wage differentials predicts.     

Occupational downgrading and bumping down: The combined effects of education and experience

Job competition between workers has important implications for “downgrading” and “bumping down”. To account for these phenomena, a matching model is considered in which highly educated and poorly educated workers compete for skilled jobs. An exogenous increase in the proportion of highly skilled workers increases the proportion of these workers in low-level jobs (downgrading). Another of the paper's findings is that changes in the composition of the workforce affect workers' opportunities to accumulate experience. An increase in the relative supply of highly educated workers reduces the opportunities for poorly educated workers to learn on the job. Both education and experience are required in order to access skilled jobs.     

Counterfactual decomposition of changes in wage distributions using quantile regression

We propose a method to decompose the changes in the wage distribution over a period of time in several factors contributing to those changes. The method is based on the estimation of marginal wage distributions consistent with a conditional distribution estimated by quantile regression as well as with any hypothesized distribution for the covariates. Comparing the marginal distributions implied by different distributions for the covariates, one is then able to perform counterfactual exercises. The proposed methodology enables the identification of the sources of the increased wage inequality observed in most countries. Specifically, it decomposes the changes in the wage distribution over a period of time into several factors contributing to those changes, namely by discriminating between changes in the characteristics of the working population and changes in the returns to these characteristics. We apply this methodology to Portuguese data for the period 1986–1995, and find that the observed increase in educational levels contributed decisively towards greater wage inequality. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.