Urban housing density and the price of housing services

Theoretical research has shown that urban housing density, defined as housing services per unit of land, is an increasing function of the price of housing services. However, this concept of density hides as well as provides information because housing services per unit of land equals the product of housing services per dwelling unit and dwelling units per unit of land. This paper proves that housing density, defined as dwelling units per unit of land, can vary either directly or inversely with the price of housing services.     

Do house price developments spillover across euro area countries? Evidence from a global VAR

This paper empirically assesses the prospects for house price spillovers in the euro area, where co-movement in house prices across countries may be particularly relevant given a general trend with monetary union toward increasing linkages in trade, financial markets, and general economic conditions. A global VAR is estimated for three housing demand variables (real house prices, real per capita income, and the cost of borrowing, captured by a real long-term interest rate) on the basis of quarterly data for 7 euro area countries (Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Spain, France, Italy and the Netherlands), which together comprise nearly 90% of euro area GDP, over the period 1971–2009. The results suggest limited house price spillovers in the euro area, albeit with evidence of some overshooting in the first year after the shock, followed by a long run aggregate euro area impact of country-specific changes in real house prices related in part to the country’s economic weight. This contrasts with the impacts of a shock to domestic long-term interest rates, causing a permanent shift in house prices after 2–3 years. Underlying this aggregate development are rather heterogeneous house price spillovers at the country level, with a strong importance for weights – either economic or geographic – in governing their general magnitude. More generally, the impact of financing costs on house prices appears to have grown though time.     

The Marginalists Who Confronted Land

A bstract .   Although the neoclassical turn in economics demoted land as a factor, important economists of neoclassical thinking, from neoclassical predecessors such Hermann-Heinrich Gossen through figures such as Leon Walras, did view land as a distinct factor of production. Walras, in particular, favored the use of land rent for public revenue. This paper examines the treatment of land by several neoclassical and Austrian economists and shows how, although the neoclassical school today has managed to bury land, some of the key figures who founded these schools did confront land as a factor. The burial of land is thus not inherent in neoclassical economics, but is a historical development that can be reversed.     

The economics of urban yard space: An “implicit-market” model for housing attributes

A theoretical housing model is developed embodying the approach of the recent hedonic price literature. Instead of focusing on a scalar “housing service” consumption measure, the model portrays housing as a commodity with two attributes: floor space and yard space. Developers react to a consumer bid-rent function, which relates dwelling rent to floor space, yard space, and location, in choosing the profit-maximizing characteristics of their housing complexes. The spatial behavior of the developer's choice variables is investigated (an interesting question is whether yards are larger farther from the urban center), and a comparative static analysis of the housing market equilibrium is presented.     

The Impact of Transaction Costs and the Expected Length of Stay on Homeownership

Economic theory suggests that an increase in the expected length of stay in a dwelling increases the probability of a household choosing to own a house rather than rent. This hypothesis is derived from recognition that there are substantial transaction costs associated with homeownership and increased expected time in the home reduces the annualized transaction cost. Using a military data set, we confirm that expected length of stay in a dwelling and the transaction costs of selling are very important to the ownership decision. Our best estimate of the transaction costs of selling a home are the sum of 3% of house value and 4% of household earnings.     

土地政策改革时期的城市空间发展:北京的实证分析

论文探讨北京城市空间发展的特征、并探究空间发展的特征与正在发展壮大的土地市场和土地制度改革之间的关系.利用1993年到2000年上半年北京城市建设区土地使用权出让数据,实证分析显示土地价格及土地开发密度都随着距城市中心区的距离增加呈下降趋势.实证分析还表明地租的曲线的空间变化与土地使用类型相关.这些实证证据支持如下结论:正在形成的土地市场确实影响城市土地开发和空间形态.实证分析还显示地租曲线的斜率和土地-资本替代弹性系数都随着时间的推移而变化.正如城市经济理论所预测,地租曲线斜率的下降是由于北京大量的交通投资降低了交通成本,从而又反过来使城市土地地租空间变化曲线发生旋转.土地-资本替代弹性指数的增加意味着价格影响土地开发密度.这两者的变化都反映出北京的土地市场正走向成熟.应该指出,在土地市场之外(在行政划拨的土地上)进行的大量开发对北京正在形成和发育的土地市场会产生扭曲.     

Site Value Taxation and the Timing of Land Development

A bstract . Recent writers have challenged the traditional view that a tax on site value is neutral, but there is still disagreement as to the effects of the tax. The site value tax affects the timing of land development in that it provides an incentive for landowners to develop land sooner than under a property tax levied on improvements also. Confusion has resulted from a failure to distinguish market value from development value. The incidence of the site value tax must take into account the dynamics of untaxing capital and of the capitalization of the tax increase on land values , as well as of the resulting increase of land supply and its effect in further reducing land values. The increased profitability of capital improvements could then increase land rent from the demand side. Obviously, amidst such dynamic changes, the overall effect on land values and rents is unsettled pending further research.     

On the possibility of positive rent gradients

The negative rent gradient is a virtually unanimous prediction of urban residential land rent models and a condition of locational equilibrium. This is the result of treating urban rents solely as location rents, where location is defined in terms of accessibility to the CBD. Urban rent may include another component, “externality rent,” which could, for instance, reflect neighborhood externalities in the form of area amenities and pleasant living environments. Introducing externality rent as an element in urban rent makes a positive rent gradient possible, provided that the externality is internalized in the land market. Conditions for a positive rent gradient are determined for both the identical and unequal incomes cases.     

Growth, development and natural resources: New evidence using a heterogeneous panel analysis

This paper explores whether natural resource abundance is a curse or a blessing. To do so, we firstly develop a theory consistent econometric model, in which we show that there is a long run relationship between real income, the investment rate, and the real value of oil production. Secondly, we investigate the long-run (level) impacts of natural resource abundance on domestic output as well as the short-run (growth) effects. Thirdly, we explicitly recognize that there is a substantial cross-sectional dependence and cross-country heterogeneity in our sample, which covers 53 oil exporting and importing countries with very different historical and institutional backgrounds, and adopt the non-stationary panel methodologies developed by Pesaran (2006) and Pedroni (2000) for estimation. Our results, using the real value of oil production, rent or reserves as a proxy for resource endowment, reveal that oil abundance has a positive effect on both income levels and economic growth. While we accept that oil rich countries could benefit more from their natural wealth by adopting growth and welfare enhancing policies and institutions, we challenge the common view that oil abundance affects economic growth negatively.     

Saving the Commons in an Age of Plunder

Land ownership, as commonly understood today, originated with the enclosure movement during the English Tudor era almost four centuries ago. Karl Polanyi referred to this “propertization” of nature as the “great transformation.” That land, water, and air was a social commons is now archaic and forgotten, and with it the classical economic concept of rent, which was, in theory, once paid to royalty as the earth's guardian. Garrett Hardin's article, “The Tragedy of the Commons,” raised alarm about the abuse and loss of this realm, and he recommended constraints and privatization to prevent this. Most people view titles to landed property much as they do their household goods, but Henry George saw that the earth should be seen as a common resource and its value taxed to benefit everyone. This would restore economic equilibrium to market exchanges and pay for government services. The capture of natural resource rents can supplant taxes on wages and capital goods, and it comports with all textbook principles of sound tax theory. This policy can be the modern replacement for the commons, and implementing resource rent capture is both economically and technically feasible.     

土地年租制:住宅用地制度改革的方向

在厘清土地年租制、租赁制、出让制三者之间关系的基础上,阐述了土地年租制的本质是以长期契约为核心的租赁制,分析了城市住房土地年租制及其特征,剖析了我国现有城市住房土地使用制度存在的弊端,指出土地年租制是对我国城市住房土地使用制度的创新,提出了实施城市住房土地年租制应注意的问题及解决思路.     

Land rent and housing policy: a case study of the San Francisco Bay area rental housing market

In the San Francisco Bay Area, where residential rent is among the highest in the United States, an analysis of data from several sources demonstrates that high rent cannot be accounted for by higher quality, higher operating costs, or higher construction costs. At least one-third of the total rent paid is land rent. Despite increases in real incomes, very-low-income tenants in the Bay Area today have less income remaining after payment of rent than tenants did in 1960. High land rent is a long-term feature of the Bay Area rental market that results mostly from its geography, the density of its urban centers, and a strong economy, rather than from regulatory barriers to new multifamily construction. Deregulation is not a sufficient response to the effects of land rent on low-income tenants. Government should subsidize non-profit housing organizations, particularly land trusts that remove residential land from the market. Taxes on land rent would be a particularly appropriate funding source.     

Urban land rent theory: a regulationist perspective

Whilst real estate capital became a driving force in analyses of urban development, urban land rent theory has made only very limited progress during the past decade. There are a number of reasons for this – such as a weak conceptualization of the role of political agency, for example. Hence, a way out of this relative stagnation, by attempting to systematically develop an integrated view on structure and agency in the context of urban land rent, is offered in this article. Advances in critical theory, thinking about space and dialectic reasoning contribute to the development of a new perspective on land rent. Land rent is conceptualized as a middle‐range theory. In order to bring together concrete urban phenomena with the general process of political‐economic development, a systematic link between land rent theory and the theoretical apparatus of the French Regulation School is developed. The reformulation of land rent theory from a regulationist perspective underlines the importance of the institutional context (and its changes) for an understanding of rent and its role in the urban context. In so doing, land rent theory proves to be a very useful tool for providing an integrated political‐economic perspective for analyses of urban phenomena. This is illustrated briefly in the cases of Vienna and Montevideo. Si le capital immobilier est devenu un point central des analyses du développement urbain, la théorie n'a guère progressé au cours de la dernière décennie. Plusieurs facteurs sont en cause, telle la faible conceptualisation du rôle politique d'agence. Cet article propose donc une porte de sortie à cette relative stagnation, en tentant de construire systématiquement une vision intégrée de la structure et l'agence dans le cadre de la rente urbaine. Les progrès en matière de théorie critique, réflexion en termes d'espace et raisonnement dialectique facilitent l'élaboration d'une nouvelle perspective sur la location foncière, laquelle est conceptualisée en tant que théorie intermédiaire. Afin de regrouper phénomènes urbains concrets et processus général d'aménagement politico‐économique, une relation systématique est établie entre la théorie sur la rente foncière et l'appareil théorique de l'École Française de Régulation. Reformuler la théorie sur la rente foncière d'un point de vue régulationiste souligne combien le contexte institutionnel (et ses changements) est important pour comprendre la rente et son rôle dans le cadre urbain. Ce faisant, la théorie sur la rente foncière se révèle un outil très utile pour créer une perspective politico‐économique intégrée permettant d'analyser les phénomènes urbains. Cet aspect est brièvement illustré dans les cas de Vienne et Montevideo.     

TAXATION OF ECONOMIC RENTS

Economic rents have long been identified as an efficient tax base. In addition, the recent literature documents that rent income is highly concentrated and that rents are quickly increasing. Rent taxation thus seems attractive for reasons of both efficiency and equity. Nevertheless, rent taxation remains a marginal topic in research and policy making. In a systematic review of the neoclassical literature on different rent types, we find that some types of rents reflect inefficiencies and should thus be minimized, while others reward investments and should be supported in line with social welfare. What remains for taxation are land rents, one of the few true scarcity rents. Land rents have significant potential to improve the efficiency of the tax system. We then begin to develop a comprehensive theory of land rent taxation by identifying relevant efficiency and equity effects. The interaction of many of these effects remains unexplored, which might explain policymakers' hesitation in using land taxes to date.     

Stability in consumer credit scores: Level and direction of FICO score drift as a precursor to mortgage default and prepayment

This article represents an extension of the expansive credit risk and credit migration literature, prominent in the corporate bond and securities risk pricing literature, to an analysis of the drift of consumer credit scores. A rich data set of residential mortgages is used to observe credit score migration post loan origination and in a test of the ability of credit score transition to serve as a precursor to potential default and prepayment. The results indicate credit scores provide signals and information to investors and servicing agents in a fashion similar to credit ratings on commercial paper as to default potential.     

土地出让金制度应该保留--房地产税改革的一点建议

我国房地产税制的改革已经启动，在土地出让金该不该计入物业税按年征收的问题上，学术界争议很大。本文通过深入分析，从税理、经济学原理等方面证明了土地出让金不应该包括在物业税中按土地承租年限征收，应该维持目前的土地出让金制度，在土地出让的同时征收。     

Market vs social valuation of redevelopment projects in an urban setting

A conventional urban model is employed to investigate the effect of urban renewal-which leads to an increase in the intensity of land use on the rent revenue from the area that is directly affected by the development. It is shown that rent revenue would increase when the project covers less than 80% of the city area. If it covers more than 80%, rents might be reduced. Hence, in the former case market forces can be relied upon as guides for socially desirable projects.     

Urban residential land rent function: An alternative Muth-Mills model

The urban residential land rent function has been studied extensively in the field of urban economics, and the land rent function of Muth and Mills is considered to be one of the typical functional forms which is used in empirical studies. However, the model of Muth and Mills simply assumed the demand function for housing services to be a power function of income, which gives rise to a question. The main purpose of this paper is to derive an alternative form of the urban residential land rent function which is consistent with the utility maximization behavior of consumers and to discuss the estimation procedure of the derived land rent function.     

On the possibility and optimality of positive rent gradients

The assertion that externalities from low density can create positive residential rent gradients is examined in several cases: optimal externality internalization (zoning), excessive and insufficient restriction, and no internalization. In all cases positive rent gradients are unlikely (i.e., require land to be an inferior good), unstable, or impossible. In addition, easily interpretable welfare conditions are found as a result of consumer and social welfare maximization. The Alonso-Muth-Mills model is found to be quite robust.     

A game-theoretic approach to the division of profits from economic land development

The present paper analyzes a very simple class of land-development games in which m developers individually seek to rent k contiguous land units from a set of n contiguous landowners. A notion of ‘admissible allocations’ is introduced to uniquely identify the set of ‘positive-profit participants’. Due to the contiguity of land, some land rents are seen to be positive even though the ‘bid rent’ for the land is zero.