北京土地价格空间分布特征——基于单中心城市的视角

为了解具有单中心城市牦最的北京市．土地价格空间分布特征,从理论上分析单中心城市土地价格的空间分布特征并提出相应假设,构建土地价格的Hedonic模型,利用北京2005—2013年住宅和办公用地微观交易价格数据进行假设的实证检验。结果显示：（1）北京住宅和办公用地的区位属性、物理属性和邻里属性对其价格有显著决定作用,且该决定作用随土地市场的成熟而逐渐增强;（2）北京住宅和办公用地价格与该区位到城市中心的距离负相关,而随时间推移,两类土地价格从城市中心向外的降低速度逐渐变快。     

北京土地价格空间分布特征——基于单中心城市的视角

为了解具有单中心城市特点的北京市土地价格空间分布特征,从理论上分析单中心城市土地价格的空间分布特征并提出相应假设,构建土地价格的Hedonic模型,利用北京2005-2013年住宅和办公用地微观交易价格数据进行假设的实证检验。结果显示:(1)北京住宅和办公用地的区位属性、物理属性和邻里属性对其价格有显著决定作用,且该决定作用随土地市场的成熟而逐渐增强;(2)北京住宅和办公用地价格与该区位到城市中心的距离负相关,而随时间推移,两类土地价格从城市中心向外的降低速度逐渐变快。     

城市间土地价格及影响因素的空间差异研究

不可移动的土地具有空间异质性,研究在分析城市间土地价格空间差异特征的基础上,进行了城市间土地价格影响因素的理论模型构建和实证分析,进而通过地理加权回归模型分析不同区域城市地价影响因素的差别。研究发现,(1)全国尺度看,城市间土地价格存在空间自相关,城市地价受城市优势和土地需求的正向影响,土地供给的负向影响。(2)区域尺度看,城市土地价格受到周边城市土地市场中供求因素和土地价格的影响,各因素的影响规律存在空间差异性。(3)城镇居民人均可支配收入对三大城市群的城市地价的影响均很大,其余各因素则略有不同。     

中国多机制门限金融状况指数编制及应用

研究目标：实证编制及应用中国多机制门限金融状况指数(MR-TFCI)。研究方法：通过拓展构建了多机制门限向量自回归(MR-TVAR)模型和MR-TFCI的多机制门限编制公式，从经济增长(RG)目标出发，选取5个金融变量，测算四个机制的广义脉冲响应函数值，编制了中国MR-TFCI，并比较其与 2机制门限FCI(2R-TFCI)和1机制线性FCI(1R-FCI)的优劣。研究发现：与2R-TFCI和1R-FCI相比，MR-TFCI是RG更优的先行、相关性、因果性和预测指标；中国货币政策调控经济增长的效应和传导渠道具有门限特征；中国货币政策调控经济增长的方式类型是价格和数量结合型的。研究创新：构建了MR-TVAR模型和MR-FCI的多机制门限编制公式，编制了首个多机制门限金融状况指数。研究价值：为中国政府部门实施货币政策和实体经济进行投融资决策提供了科学决策依据。     

金砖国家经济周期协同性及其传导机制

研究目标：测度金砖国家经济周期协同性并探究其传导机制。研究方法：运用Scalar-BEKK模型测算1996年第2季度以来金砖国家经济周期协同性的动态演化路径,并采用面板联立方程模型考察金砖国家经济周期协同性的传导机制。研究发现：金砖各国经济周期波动总体上存在一定的偏弱协同性,且协同性具有显著的时变特征。双边贸易强度、金融一体化、专业化分工、汇率波动性是影响金砖国家经济周期协同性的重要渠道,但其影响机制有所差异。各传导渠道对金砖国家经济周期协同性同时产生直接影响和间接影响,且各传导渠道的相对重要性有所不同。研究创新：在时变框架下测算金砖国家经济周期协同性,基于面板联立方程模型刻画协同性与各传导渠道之间复杂的经济关联。[HTH]研究价值：为金砖国家区域经济政策的制定和实施提供重要参考。     

土地价格——工业用地与商住用地的差异

研究目的:通过研究,在了解土地价格是怎么形成和工商住用地价格差异形成原因后,探索土地价格日后将如何发展,如何将两地的价格差异缩小。研究内容:了解完土地价格形成和影响因素后,再从城市土地利用结构失衡、对应空间区位不同、制定各种优惠政策、招商引资、出让做法差异、根据不同产业的性质五个方面对工业用地价格低于商住用地价格进行研究。研究方法:运用了文献综述和归纳总结法。本文查阅了相关国内文献,对需研究的各方面进行了解,再通过获取数据进行归纳、统计分析等得出结论。研究结论:基于学者们的研究,明确了工业用地价格低于商住用地价格的原因,土地价格的影响因素也是从土地利用结构、空间区位、政府优惠政策、招商引资行为、出让做法、产业性质的不同,导致价格的差异。     

海景对房地产价格的影响——基于特征价格模型的分析

城市房地产价格受到多种因素的影响，本文立足于新城市主义的观点，采用特征价格模型，利用厦门市思明区住宅交易数据，研究了海景对房地产价格的影响。根据样本回归结果显示，海景对房她产价格是存在影响的。[编者按]     

沪深300指数影响因素的实证分析

沪深300指数可以较好的代表中国股票市场的价格走势,它选取了在上海和深证两家证券交易所上市的交易量达,流通性好的300只蓝筹股作为样本,以较为科学的统计方法编制而成的指数。通过以GDP累计增长率,通货膨胀率和实际利率作为自变量,以沪深300指数收盘价为因变量,应用各自的季度数据进而建立多元回归模型,可以分析自变量和因变量之间的相关关系以检验假设是否成立。     

建立城市中心城区标准宗地体系的方法初探

标准宗地体系是指在一定范围的均质区域内,选定一宗在各方面具有代表性和中庸性的地块作为标准地块,然后由专业估价人员定期评估该地块的价格后加以公布,作为衡量周边土地（均质区域内）土地价格基准的制度。本着重研究了建立标准宗地体系的核心内容：标准地块的选择问题,并提出了在均质区域内选择标准地块的两种方法：最小距离法和最优地块比较法。     

地方政府竞争、土地价格与外商直接投资——基于69个地级市面板数据的分析

选取2005—2015年我国中部五省共69个地级市的数据，在考虑存在空间溢出效应可能性的基础上，采用空间面板数据模型分析地方政府竞争、土地价格对外商直接投资的空间影响。实证研究结果表明：工业用地价格降低和商业用地价格升高有利于吸引外商直接投资，地方政府竞争通过直接和间接作用于土地出让价格两种手段影响外商直接投资规模。土地价格和政府竞争对地理相邻地区的FDI能够产生显著影响，一个地区的工业土地价格降低、商业土地价格升高将抑制地理相邻地区的FDI规模，同时，一个地区政府竞争的加剧也会降低地理相邻地区的FDI，但这一空间溢出效应在经济距离相邻权重下并不显著，说明中部五省地级市的竞争主要存在于地理位置相邻的地方政府间。     

School Quality and Real House Prices: Inter- and Intrametropolitan Effects

This study focuses on explaining variations in real constant-quality house prices in jurisdictions located in multiple MSAs. Using a hedonic house price framework, we test competing theories of house price determination. Using two variants of the random coefficients model, we find that public school quality has a very large impact on real constant-quality house prices. Our results suggest that capitalization of school quality differences occurs on a per lot basis rather than per square foot of land. Also important to the explanation of variations in house prices are variables derived from urban theory, such as distance to the CBD, and from the amenity literature, such as a community's crime rate, arts, and recreational opportunities     

Seasonality, consumer heterogeneity and price indexes: the case of prepackaged software

This paper measures constant-quality price change for prepackaged software in the US using detailed and comprehensive scanner data. Because there is a large sales surge over the winter-holiday, it is important to account for seasonal variation. Using a novel approach to constructing a seasonally-adjusted cost-of-living price index that explicitly accounts for consumer heterogeneity, I find that from 1997 to 2003 constant-quality software prices declined at an average 15.9% at an annual rate. As a point of comparison, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports average annual price declines of only 7.7% for prepackaged software.     

Hedonic versus repeat-sales housing price indexes for measuring the recent boom-bust cycle

Standard housing price indexes rely on strong constant-quality assumptions and often conflict. Hedonic price indexes overcome limitations of median price and repeat-sales indexes but their implementation has been limited by a lack of data. This paper constructs hedonic indexes at the zip code level for the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas using considerably more detailed data than previously available. Our sample was collected by a mortgage technology firm, and consists of almost 1.1 million transactions during the boom-bust cycle since 2000. Our hedonic regressions include new spatial models that capture correlations within submarkets (using zip codes as proxies) and allow temporal asymmetry. Compared to a repeat-sales price index constructed from the same data, the hedonic indexes indicate that the market peaked about 11 months later in Los Angeles and about 2 months earlier in San Diego, show less pre-peak appreciation and post-peak depreciation in low-tier housing and more pre-peak appreciation in high-tier housing. We also find that the intensity of the cycle varies greatly across zip codes and price-tiers in a pattern consistent with foreclosure activity.     

STATE DEPENDENCE AND HETEROGENEITY IN HEALTH USING A BIAS‐CORRECTED FIXED‐EFFECTS ESTIMATOR

This paper estimates a dynamic ordered probit model of self‐assessed health with two fixed effects: one in the linear index equation and one in the cut‐points. This robustly controls for heterogeneity in unobserved health status and in reporting behavior, although we cannot separate both sources of heterogeneity. We find important state dependence effects, and small but significant effects of income and other socioeconomic variables. Having dynamics and flexibly accounting for unobserved heterogeneity matters for those estimates. We also contribute to the bias correction literature in nonlinear panel models by comparing and applying two of the existing proposals to our model. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国城市土地市场存在“赢者诅咒”吗？

借鉴相关研究成果,构建一个综合性的时间窗口分析模型,利用我国境内房地产上市公司在20个城市购置的205宗土地作为样本,设置前向与后向共八个事件窗口,定量考察土地市场价格信号对股票市场的影响。实证结果表明：土地市场与股票市场是两个高度关联的市场,两个市场之间存在信号传递作用,短期内具有正向冲击效应,地价信号在土地出让后能够在短期内影响股票收益率,形成对股票价格的短期冲击效应;土地出让价格信号对股票市场的影响具有时间上的不对称性,地价信号对于股票收益率的影响主要发生在土地成交之后,股票市场对于土地竞拍以前的信息没有明显响应;土地市场所发现的价格信号是关联市场价格波动的信号源,改变竞价人的预期是市场稳定的关键。     

The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity

We use the information content in the decisions of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the United States. We identify the coincident index by assuming that the coincident variables have a common cycle with the unobserved state of the economy, and that the NBER business cycle dates signify the turning points in the unobserved state. This model allows us to estimate our coincident index as a linear combination of the coincident series. We compare the performance of our index with other currently popular coincident indices of economic activity.     

Modeling monetary policy as an unobserved variable

This paper presents a model of the U.S. Monetary Authority. It is assumed that monetary policy is a single dimensioned unobserved variable that links changes in a set of ‘causal’ variables representing economic goals and changes in money market ‘indicator’ variables. Several issues are examined pertaining to the weights attached to the causal variables including: the lag structure, changes over time, and asymmetric effects of positive and negative changes. As a by product of the model, the paper presents an estimated index of monetary policy for the years 1955–1975.     

The Price Effect on Spatial Structure: Revisiting the New Economic Geography Model

Abstract

This paper adds a factor of production, land, to the standard core-periphery model of the New Economic Geography to analyse the effect of land rent on the price index and spatial structure. The result indicates that when production of the manufacturing sector has high dependence on land, and high demand elasticity for differentiated goods, the price index of the core region is higher than that of the periphery, and that the price index could rise with a degree of agglomeration. Meanwhile, the market forces cannot generate a core-periphery structure, which indicates the significance of the price effect on spatial structure.     

When to haggle,when to hold firm? Lessons from the used‐car retail market

Though haggling has been the conventional way for auto retailers to sell cars, the last two decades have witnessed the systematic adoption of no‐haggle prices by many large dealerships, including the largest new‐ and used‐car dealership chains. This paper develops a structural empirical model to estimate sellers' profits under posted price and haggling, and investigates how market conditions affect sellers' optimal pricing formats. The model incorporates a simple class of bargaining mechanisms into a standard random‐coefficient discrete‐choice model. With the extension, the product‐level demand system is estimated using data with only list prices, and the unobserved price discounts are also recovered in the estimation. The counterfactual experiments yield a few interesting findings. First, dealers' adopted pricing formats seem superior to the alternative ones. Second, dealers enjoying larger market power through vertical differentiation and carrying a large number of models are more likely to have posted price as their optimal pricing format.