The wisdom of large and small crowds: Evidence from repeated natural experiments in sports betting

Prediction markets have proved excellent tools for forecasting, outperforming experts and polls in many settings. But do larger markets, with a wider participation, perform better than smaller markets? This paper analyses a series of repeated natural experiments in sports betting. The Queen’s Club Tennis Championships are held every year, but every other year the Championships clash with a major soccer tournament. We find that tennis betting prices become significantly less informative when participation rates are affected adversely by the clashing soccer tournament. This suggests that measures which increase prediction market participation may lead to a greater forecast accuracy.     

Efficiency of online football betting markets

This paper evaluates the efficiency of online betting markets for European (association) football leagues. The existing literature shows mixed empirical evidence regarding the degree to which betting markets are efficient. We propose a forecast-based approach for formally testing the efficiency of online betting markets. By considering the odds proposed by 41 bookmakers on 11 European major leagues over the last 11 years, we find evidence of differing degrees of efficiency among markets. We show that, if the best odds are selected across bookmakers, eight markets are efficient while three show inefficiencies that imply profit opportunities for bettors. In particular, our approach allows the estimation of the odds thresholds that could be used to set profitable betting strategies both ex post and ex ante.     

Additional evidence of heuristic-based inefficiency in season wins total betting markets: Major League Baseball

The large majority of sports betting papers have addressed questions of market efficiency based on the outcome of single game, such as spread (sides) or point totals wagers. This research examines the Major League Baseball (MLB) season wins total over/under betting market with respect to questions of market efficiency and profitability. Woodland and Woodland (2013, 2015) investigated the season wins total markets for the National Football League (NFL) and the National Basketball Association (NBA) and found significant inefficiencies. Betting rules tested in this paper parallel those proposed by Woodland and Woodland for the NFL and NBA. They aim to take advantage of the implications of the representativeness heuristic, that is, individuals expect results from a small number of games to generalize to the entire population. The MLB market is found to be inefficient, and provides opportunities for profitable wagering. We establish a tendency for bettors to overreact to a team’s performance in the previous season, particularly for teams with winning records. Results are consistent with the findings for the NFL and NBA season wins totals betting markets. This may be the consequence of monetary betting limits and a structure requiring the completion of a sport’s season before the bet outcome is determined, both of which could discourage some bettors from participating.     

Keeping a weather eye on prediction markets: The influence of environmental conditions on forecasting accuracy

Increasingly, prediction markets are being embraced as a mechanism for eliciting and aggregating dispersed information and providing a means of deriving probabilistic forecasts of future uncertain events. The efficient market hypothesis postulates that prediction market prices should incorporate all information that is relevant to the performances of the contracts traded. This paper shows that such may not be the case in relation to information regarding environmental factors such as the weather and atmospheric conditions. In the context of horserace betting markets, we demonstrate that even after the effects of these factors on the contestants (horses and jockeys) have been discounted, the accuracy of the probabilities derived from market prices is affected systematically by the prevailing weather and atmospheric conditions. We show that significantly better forecasts can be derived from prediction markets if we correct for this phenomenon, and that these improvements have substantial economic value.     

Market efficiency in Scandinavian racetrack betting

This study analyzes Scandinavian racetrack betting markets. We discuss market efficiency and investor behavior in light of the fact that investors earn negative returns on average. Show bets on favorites in Norway yield a small positive return, while all the other betting markets are weak form efficient. We establish the favorite-longshot bias for quinella and exactor bettors, but not for win bettors. Our results can be explained by small pools and high track takes. Investors wagering at the racetrack have a different risk attitude than investors wagering off the track. We explain how our results should influence the design of betting products, especially with respect to the fraction of the pool returned to winners.     

Relative pricing of binary options in live soccer betting markets

Live soccer betting markets differ from other binary options markets in that all fundamental information is observable, the options mature in less than two hours and the markets are highly liquid. This study presents a new method for the identification of hidden information in market prices. The method is based on two independent Poisson distributions and on a numerical algorithm for the aggregation of all market price information into one rational number. The method is applied to an empirical dataset of real time market prices in 29,413 soccer games. The results indicate that the method selects the most profitable markets and allows for a significant improvement in average investment returns.     

Regional information and market efficiency: the case of spread betting in United States college football

Using game results over a seven year span (1999–2006), we find that United States college football teams in arid regions “win” against the spread in 56.64% of games in which they host a team from a humid region. This result provides statistically significant evidence for both weak and strong form inefficiency in the spread betting markets of such games. By examining other cases of intraregional and interregional competition within the sport, we conclude that this inefficiency does not arise from the effects of travel or home field advantage. Rather, the result indicates that climate aridity is an observed characteristic for which college football betting markets do not accurately control. It is quite rare to find strong form market inefficiency arise from a single variable rather than from an elaborate, multivariable betting strategy. Therefore, the effect of climate aridity upon college football spread betting market efficiency can be characterized as dramatic. It is conjectured that remote market participants may need to “experience” certain types of relevant regional information, such as climate, to act in a market efficient manner.     

Bettor preferences and market efficiency in football totals markets

The betting markets for totals in college football and arena football provide additional evidence of bettor preference for scoring. The results for college football and arena football markets are similar to those found in the professional football and professional basketball totals market. In all of these leagues, the overs are overbet. We suggest that there is a clear preference for bettors to bet the over and the extent of the bias depends upon the volume of uninformed bettors to informed bettors and limits placed on bets in these markets.     

On determining probability forecasts from betting odds

We show that the probabilities determined from betting odds using Shin’s model are more accurate forecasts than those determined using basic normalization or regression models. We also provide empirical evidence that some bookmakers are significantly different sources of probabilities in terms of forecasting accuracy, and that betting exchange odds are not always the best source, especially in smaller markets. The advantage of using Shin probabilities and the differences between bookmakers decrease with an increasing market size.     

Polls to probabilities: Comparing prediction markets and opinion polls

The forecasting of election outcomes is a hugely popular activity, and not without reason: the outcomes can have significant economic impacts, for example on stock prices. As such, it is economically important, as well as of academic interest, to determine the forecasting methods that have historically performed best. However, the forecasts are often incompatible, as some are in terms of vote shares while others are probabilistic outcome forecasts. This paper sets out an empirical method for transforming opinion poll vote shares into probabilistic forecasts, and then evaluates the performances of prediction markets and opinion polls. We make comparisons along two dimensions, bias and precision, and find that converted opinion polls perform well in terms of bias, while prediction markets are good for precision.     

Voter turnout in a multidimensional policy space

Many factors influence the likelihood of citizens turning out to vote. In this paper we focus our attention on issue voting, that is, on the likelihood that different policies offered by politicians affect the probability of voting. If voters consider both the benefits and the costs of voting, rational voters will only vote when politicians offer differentiated policies. In a multidimensional policy space this implies that citizens only vote when they perceive enough difference on the issues they care about the most. We investigate the role of voter abstention due to indifference in a unidimensional and a multidimensional policy setting using data from the US National Election Studies for 1972–2000 and find support for our predictions: voters perceiving a small difference between the platforms of the Democratic and Republican parties are less likely to vote; and voters who perceive the two parties as more different on a larger number of issues are significantly more likely to vote.     

Geographical Proximity and Mutual Funds' Proxy Voting Behavior

This paper examines the influence of geographical proximity on mutual fund proxy voting decisions. Using mutual fund proxy voting data for the sample period July 1, 2003 to June 30, 2004, we find that fund managers vote more in favor of management of locally headquartered firms. The results are strong for proposals related to executive compensation, anti‐takeover provisions, social and political issues. We provide evidence to show that bias in proxy voting is not being driven by informational advantage; voting bias is prevalent in small as well as large size companies. Additionally, the voting pattern suggests that geographical proximity does not facilitate in better corporate monitoring as revealed in their voting decisions. We find that local fund managers vote more favorably in those proposals which do not increase shareholders' wealth and rights. Our results suggest that familiarity and social interaction between fund managers and firm executives located in the same geographic area might explain the local bias in mutual fund proxy voting behavior. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Informational efficiency and behaviour within in-play prediction markets

Studies of financial market informational efficiency have proven burdensome in practice, because it is difficult to pinpoint when news breaks and is known by some or all the participants. We overcome this by designing a framework to detect mispricing, test informational efficiency and evaluate the behavioural biases within high-frequency prediction markets. We demonstrate this using betting exchange data for association football, exploiting the moment when the first goal is scored in a match as major news that breaks cleanly. There are pre-match and in-play mispricing and inefficiency in these markets, explained by reverse favourite-longshot bias (favourite bias). The mispricing tends to increase when the major news is a surprise, such as a goal scored by a longshot team late in a match, with the market underestimating their chances of going on to win These results suggest that, even in prediction markets with large crowds of participants trading state-contingent claims, significant informational inefficiency and behavioural biases can be reflected in prices.     

Interrelations in market fears of U.S. and European equity markets

We examine interdependence between the implied volatilities of U.S. and five European markets in an integrated multivariate system that allows interactions in the first and second moments of volatility processes. Our results find significant interactions in the variance-covariance matrix of VIX and European volatilities which persist and facilitate risk transmission. Changes in U.S. and Eurozone volatilities are important drivers of risk shocks in European markets. VIX and European volatilities have predictive ability for each other. Further, VIX shocks contribute significantly to the prediction error of European risk shocks, but not vice versa. Risk transmission from U.K. markets to U.S. and European markets intensified around the Brexit vote. Also, VIX shocks added significantly more to European risks during the global financial crisis. Our results highlight the potential weakness of risk transmission models that ignore the second-moment risk transmission channel and have implications for volatility trades, portfolio diversification strategies, and hedging the cross-market risks.     

Choosing union representation: the role of attitudes and emotions

In the United States, most unions are recognised by a majority vote of employees through union representation elections administered by the government. Most empirical studies of individual voting behaviour during union representation elections use a rational choice model. Recently, however, some have posited that voting is often influenced by emotions. We evaluate competing hypotheses about the determinants of union voting behaviour by using data collected from a 2010 representation election at Delta Air Lines, a US‐based company. In addition to the older rational choice framework, multiple regression results provide support for an emotional choice model. Positive feelings toward the employer are statistically significantly related to voting ‘no’ in a representation election, while positive feelings toward the union are related to a ‘yes’ vote. Effect sizes for the emotion variables were generally larger than those for the rational choice variables, suggesting that emotions may play a key role in representation election outcomes.     

Speculative behavior and the dynamics of interacting stock markets

We develop a simple agent-based financial market model in which heterogeneous speculators apply technical and fundamental analysis to trade in two different stock markets. Speculators׳ strategy/market selections are repeated at each time step and depend on predisposition effects, herding behavior and market circumstances. Simulations reveal that our model is able to explain a number of nontrivial statistical properties of and between international stock markets, including bubbles and crashes, fat-tailed return distributions, volatility clustering, persistent trading volume, coevolving stock prices and cross-correlated volatilities. Against this background, our model may be deemed to have been validated.     

Exploring issues of market inefficiency by the role of forecasting accuracy in survivability

Whether markets are efficient or not has been broadly discussed in the empirical literature since the efficient markets hypothesis was proposed by Fama and others in the 1960s. Unfortunately, they did not come to a consistent conclusion. Besides, while these studies show whether a specific market is efficient or not, little has been done to explore the issues regarding the degree of market inefficiency. This paper attempts to resolve the puzzle of the inconsistent conclusions in the empirical literature by adopting a bottom-up approach which takes market participants’ interactions and coordination into consideration. By simulating an agent-based artificial stock market, this paper concludes with three main findings. First, agents’ survivability is mainly decided by risk preference, and not forecasting accuracy. Survivors may have diverse forecasting accuracy. Second, because market prices are not decided by agents based on accurate predictions, markets can not be efficient. What may exist is only the difference of the degree of inefficiency between markets. Third, the more relevant to survivability the forecasting accuracy in a market is, the less inefficient the market will be. Therefore, this paper suggests that it may be better to view the divergent empirical results regarding market efficiency as a fact that markets are inefficient to a variety of degrees.     

城乡商品市场协调发展实证研究:一个区域视角

中国市场化水平已突破了临界水平,但是城乡商品市场尤其是区域城乡商品市场发展仍然有着巨大的差距。文章构建了城乡商品协调发展的指标体系,并通过横截面数据,分析了中国各区域城乡商品市场发展协调度。研究结果表明:根据各区域城乡商品市场协调发展度以及经济发展水平,可以将中国划分为四类地区。文章最后针对四类地区提出了一些发展的策略。     

Voting with a Hand on the Bible and Not on the Wallet: The 1996 Video Poker Referendum in Louisiana

Abstract . The 1996 gambling referendum in Louisiana provided a unique opportunity to study voters' preferences. At the time of the referendum, video poker machines legally operated in all of Louisiana's 64 parishes (counties). Video poker was voted down in 31 parishes and retained in 33 parishes. Voters also allowed the New Orleans land‐based casino and 15 riverboat casinos to continue their operations. The extant horse racing and pari‐mutuel betting were not voted on. We examine the economic, demographic, and religious factors that influenced how people voted on the issue of legalized video poker. This study is of interest because in recent years, legalized gambling has been expanding around the world. We know of no other referendum on gambling that covered an area as large as an entire U.S. state—all of Louisiana—and offered voters control over gambling in their locality. Months before the 1996 referendum, the news media suggested several factors that might determine the outcome of the vote. The media concluded that concern over jobs would be the major influence on the outcome. Other important factors included a campaign against gambling by Southern Baptist churches and the simultaneous national presidential election. We investigate whether these factors, along with demographic factors such as age and education, influenced the results of the gambling referendum. Surprisingly, we found no clear evidence that the economic health of a parish or the preexisting size of its gambling industry determined the vote. The presence of Southern Baptists in a parish increased the likelihood that gambling would be voted down. Democratic voters tended to vote for gambling, as did black voters. Age and education levels of voters did not appear to influence their votes on gambling. Voters in parishes that bordered other states were more likely to retain gambling. Overall, it appeared that personal values were more important in determining voter behavior than financial considerations. People were voting with their hearts, not their pocketbooks.     

Fair bets and profitability in college football gambling

Efficient markets in college football are tested over a 25-year period, 1976–2000. the market in general is found to be efficient, but betting on underdogs of more than 28 points violates a fair bet. The strategy of betting home underdogs reveals stronger results. Home underdogs of more than seven points are found to reject the null hypotheses of a fair bet over the last 10 years of the sample, 1991–2000. Home underdogs of more than 28 points are found to reject the null of no profitability during the same time frame.