Energy and CO2 emission relationships in the NAFTA trading bloc: a multi-regional multi-factor energy input–output approach

The North-America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has brought together the economies of Canada, Mexico, and the US into forming one of the largest trading blocs worldwide (within the top CO₂ emitters). However, the current global protectionist discourse threatens the agreement. This paper analyzes the energy and energy-related CO₂ emission relationships between NAFTA countries in 2014 to gain insights into the climate change implications of current integration and the possible cancelation of the agreement. The analysis is performed with a multi-regional version of the multi-factor energy input–output model. The results show that NAFTA has not built a single integrated energy system, though it has helped reduce energy-related CO₂ emissions. Moreover, if NAFTA is not revoked, further integration would depend on the capacity of the Mexican energy sector to converge to the performance of its trade partners’ energy sectors. Conversely, a broken deal would induce negative environmental externalities.     

Multilateral trade liberalisation helps promote export product diversification: Trade tensions damage the prospects of the poorest economies

Using a large panel dataset over a 20‐year period, this article explores the effect of multilateral trade liberalisation on export product diversification. Empirical results show that multilateral trade liberalisation is positively associated with export product diversification. However, less‐developed economies experience a greater positive effect than relatively advanced economies. This analysis suggests that if trade tensions reduce cooperation on trade matters among World Trade Organization members, it may hinder export product diversification in developing countries, and the poorest countries might be the most adversely affected.     

Economic importance and structural robustness of the international pesticide trade networks

Pesticides are agricultural inputs that can significantly reduce yield losses, regulate plant growth, effectively liberate agricultural productivity, and improve food security. The availability of pesticides in economies worldwide is ensured by redistribution through international trade, with different economies playing different roles in this process. In this study, we measured and ranked the importance of economies using nine node metrics. We found that the clustering coefficient was negatively correlated with the other eight node metrics, whereas the other eight node metrics were positively correlated with each other and could be grouped into three communities (betweenness; in-degree, PageRank, authority, and in-closeness; out-degree, hub, and out-closeness). We further investigated the structural robustness of international pesticide trade networks proxied by large component size under three types of shocks to economies (node removal in descending, random, and ascending orders). The results showed that, except for the clustering coefficient, international pesticide trade networks are relatively robust under shocks to economies in ascending order but fragile under shocks to economies in descending order. By contrast, removing nodes with a clustering coefficient in ascending and descending order yielded similar robustness curves. Moreover, the structural robustness related to large component size evolved over time and exhibited an inverse U-shaped pattern.     

The Role of Interregional Trade in Generating Change in the Regional Economies of Japan, 1980-1990

An earlier analysis (Hewings et al., 1998) revealed the 'hollowing-out' process, a decrease in the level of intraregional intermediation, in the Chicago economy during the period 1975-2011. The main force underlying this structural change has been the change in regional trade patterns in a way that interregional trades across economies has replaced the local purchases of intermediate inputs. The issue addressed in this paper focuses on the decomposition of structural change into changes in interregional trade and in technology, in order to investigate the nature of structural change over time and across sectors. The empirical realization is provided by reference to a series of regional input-output tables for a nine-region division of the Japanese economy (1980-1985-1990). The results revealed that interregional trade has played a key role in determining regional output level while technology itself had a tendency to decrease further.     

The Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement: An economic evaluation

A bilateral Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Australia and the United States came into effect on 1st January 2005. Since the U.S. is one of the main trading partners for Australia, it was anticipated that the FTA would bring a substantial increase in Australia's bilateral trade with the United States. It would also have important implications for Australia's other main trading partners such as Japan, and China. This paper seeks to provide a quantitative assessment of the impact of the FTA by undertaking simulations using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. By simulating the GTAP multi-country CGE model, the paper evaluates various economy-wide effects, sectoral level effects, and trade diversion and trade creation effects in the two countries in response to bilateral free trade. It will also identify the effects on trading partners outside the FTA. The results will provide a preliminary indication of the magnitude of welfare gains involved.     

PUBLIC CHOICE THEORY, PROTECTIONISM AND THE CASE OF NAFTA

Public choice theory suggests that the political process has an in-built tendency to promote protectionist measures favoured by organised interest groups rather than trade liberalisation that would benefit society as a whole. But the example of the North American Free Trade Agreement shows that political campaigns in support of free trade can successfully mobilise public opinion to neutralise the power of special-interest groups. Therefore, it is imperative that politicians and others who believe in free trade remind the public of its benefits.     

Product diversification,production systems,and economic performance in U.S. agricultural production

The U.S. agricultural sector is experiencing significant structural change. Farm size is rising and activities are broadening, including more off-farm employment, implying economic incentives for larger and more diversified farms, and complementarities among agricultural netputs. We quantify such patterns for farms in the corn belt, by measuring scale economies, and output and input contributions and jointness. We estimate the multi-output and -input production technology by stochastic frontier techniques applied to output and input distance functions. We find that both scope and scale economies have important economic performance implications, and that an input-oriented framework including off-farm income best characterizes agricultural production.     

Mexican Maquiladoras and the North American Free Trade Area

The maquiladora program has been in existence for nearly three decades. Understanding the concept of maquiladoras, how they are established, their benefits and harms to the US., Mexico and to other countries and how they are impacted by the Free Trade Agreement between the United States, Canada and Mexico, are of utmost importance to international marketers and policy makers all over the world In this paper, the history, the present state and the future potential of the maquiladora program is discussed and the process of establishing a maguiladora is presented. Maquiladoras influence the process of Mexican-American-Canadian multilaleral invesanent and trade relationshin Even though the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA) is expected to reduce their importance for American and Canadian companies, we argue here that maquiladoras will remain a significant part of the Mexican manufacturing sector and will continue to attract Pacific and European investments seeking inexpensive labor, oil and other basic resources, god manufacturing environment and significant consumers markets, all in one place. Maquiladuras may indeed change ownership but will remain a significant contributor to the economy of Mexico for years to come.     

The impact of Preferential Trade Agreements on the margins of international trade

In this paper we consider the trade creating effects of Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) for a large sample of countries within the period 1962-2000. The paper builds upon existing literature by examining whether any significant effects of PTAs occur through a change in the variety of exports (the extensive margin) or through a change in the volume of existing products (the intensive margin). To address this issue we employ the commonly used gravity equation as well as a matching approach to deal with potential self-selection problems. Our results indicate that exports respond positively to the formation of a PTA between countries, and that much of this increase in exports occurs along the extensive margin. We also show that the extensive margin responds more strongly to the formation of a PTA in larger exporters and for larger country pairs.     

Congressional Voting Patterns on NAFTA

A bstract . On December 8, 1993 President Bill Clinton signed into law the North American Free Trade Agreement and in doing so he brought to a close the lengthy political process that produced the trade agreement. This paper combines information for individual legislators with state-level economic data to conduct an empirical analysis of the House and Senate voting patterns on NAFTA. Results from the logit model estimation confirm that expected job gains/losses, the presence of organized labor and political ideology (as represented by political party) were significant predictors of a legislator's vote on NAFTA. In addition, the expected impact of NAFTA on the environment was found to be somewhat important in explaining Congressional voting patterns for a free trade agreement with Mexico.     

Efficiency externalities of trade and alternative forms of foreign investment in OECD countries

The literature on the spillover effects of trade and inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) has concentrated on technological externalities. Little effort has been directed towards identifying their efficiency externalities. This paper measures the efficiency externalities of trade and various forms of foreign investment for a sample of 20 OECD countries between 1982 and 2000 using a stochastic frontier approach. Trade and all foreign investment inflows are found to enhance efficiency, whereas outflows of FDI are found to exacerbate inefficiency. The efficiency externalities from foreign investment are contingent on the absorptive capacity of the host economies. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于“单国模式”引力模型的区域贸易协定效应分析——以中国—东盟自由贸易区对广西的贸易效应为例

区域贸易协定的成员国效应分析是国际贸易学的重要研究主题。本文在系统梳理广西与东盟间贸易状况的基础上,依托"单国模式"引力模型就中国—东盟自由贸易区对广西的贸易效应进行了实证分析,得出了贸易创造效应大于贸易转移效应、广西参与自由贸易区建设尚有较大空间和潜力的结论。结合广西实际,本文提出了调整与东盟的贸易互补性和竞争性以扩大贸易创造效应、改善外贸结构以降低贸易转移效应、推进市场整合、扩大境外投资等政策建议。     

Exchange rate, inflation and unemployment in East European economies: the case of Poland and Hungary*

The aim of the paper is to model the impact of exchange rate on both inflation and unemployment variables in economies which are characterized by important structural changes, i.e. a transition phase moving from centralized economies towards market economies. This phenomenon, which is common to the East European countries, stressed different effects both for what concerns the behaviour of economic agents and for what concerns fiscal and monetary measures adopted by governments and aiming to keep under control the inflation–unemployment trade off. Time series relationships between these variables are investigated within an econometric model. Economic theory and the available data on the hypothetically relevant variables, along with the consideration of the main facts occurred in the period under study, characterize our information set. It is found that single equation analysis yields inefficient inference relative to the whole system analysis, and important structural changes are detected which reflect possible breaks in the structure of the economic system along with a change in economic policy.     

Economies of scale in the Mexican automotive sector

Recent growth of the Mexican motor vehicle industry has sparked a great deal of controversy on both sides of the U.S.-Mexico border regarding the potential effects of the North American Free Trade Agreement. One of the key factors affecting the future competitiveness of the Mexican motor vehicle industry relative to U.S. producers is whether the Mexican firms can exploit economies of scale as their output expands. This article investigates that possibility as well as the direct and cross-price elasticities of demand for the inputs by estimating translog cost functions for the Mexican motor vehicle and autoparts industries. The results are consistent with the hypotheses that substantial economies of scale remain to be exploited by the Mexican motor vehicle industry, but that the autoparts industry is operating with diseconomies of scale. However, the lack of investment in new technology and X-inefficiency on the part of the autoparts firms may have been partially responsible for the latter finding.     

On the spatial economic impact of global warming

We propose a dynamic spatial theory to analyze the geographic impact of climate change. Agricultural and manufacturing firms locate on a hemisphere. Trade is costly, firms innovate, and technology diffuses over space. Emissions from energy used in production contribute to the atmospheric stock of carbon, which increases temperature. Warming differs across latitudes and its effect on productivity varies across sectors. We calibrate the model to analyze how climate change affects the spatial distribution of economic activity, trade, migration, growth, and welfare. We assess quantitatively the impact of migration and trade restrictions, energy taxes, and innovation subsidies.     

低碳贸易壁垒的内容、影响及应对措施

发展低碳经济,减少碳排放,是延缓全球气候变暖的迫切需要。以低碳经济为代表的新技术革命也是全球经济复苏的引擎和下一轮经济增长的动力。制定碳标准,征收碳关税,一方面起到了监督减排责任的作用,但另一方面也成为新的技术性贸易壁垒。低碳贸易壁垒是在应对气候变化的大背景下产生的一类新型贸易措施,贸易保护主义将来更多是以低碳壁垒等技术性壁垒出现。由碳关税和低碳壁垒衍生的税收成本和技术标准的提高,将给包括中国在内的新兴经济体的出口产品增加生产成本,影响其出口贸易的发展。为应对世界经济和贸易格局向低碳化演变及发达国家设置低碳贸易壁垒对出口造成的严峻挑战,中国必须实施贸易低碳化战略,加快转型步伐。     

Threshold effects of terms of trade on Latin American growth

This paper investigates nonlinear relationships between terms of trade volatility (totvol) and economic growth in 14 Latin American economies from 1997 to 2014. In the 2000s, Latin American countries experienced accelerated economic growth often attributed to commodity price booms. We split the sample into two regimes based on totvol thresholds determined by bootstrap techniques. Fixed effects, instrumental variable and dynamic panel regressions address endogeneity in trade growth, subject to traditional economic channels such as domestic investment, population growth, exchange rate, government size, and institutions. We find statistically significant thresholds and stronger trade-growth links during the 2000s commodity boom and in larger economies.     

Free-Trade Fillip for Large and Small

Low taxes, free trade, and a 'hands off' government policy in the Isle of Man offer urgent lessons for less vibrant larger economies, argues Sigmund Knag (right), Co-editor of the Norwegian political quarterly Ideer om Frihet     

Uncertainty, the structure of production and the pattern of trade of centrally planned economies

Conclusions In this paper we have demonstrated that terms of trade uncertainty imposes a welfare loss on a centrally planned economy by reallocating resources toward the production of import substitutes and domestic consumption of exportables and a consequent decrease in the volume of trade. We have also shown that the centrally planned economies have developed a number of institutions, such as trade agreements and pricing rules, designed to minimize the losses caused by terms of trade uncertainty. Finally, we have suggested that the behavior of these economies during the post-Warperiod is consistent with welfare maximization under terms of trade uncertainty.I am indebted to Edward A. Hewett and Paul N. Rappoport for their assistance and comments at various stages of my work on this paper. Any errors and all opinions are entirely my responsibility.     

中国对美国的贸易成本变动及影响因素研究

作为影响国际交换能否发生的重要因素,贸易成本已成为国际贸易研究的重要领域。在采用Novy模型就1995年至2012年中国对美国的贸易成本进行有效测度的基础上,对影响贸易成本变动的多种因素进行分析,结果显示：中国对美国贸易成本总体上呈现波浪式下降趋势;人民币过快升值会对贸易成本的降低产生不利影响;中国商业环境改善、进口关税水平降低等因素有助于降低贸易成本;原油价格变动对贸易成本的影响不大;FDI、美国进口关税水平与中美贸易成本之间不存在长期均衡关系。基于进一步分析发现,中国对美国贸易成本还有下降的空间,中国应充分挖掘贸易成本下降的途径,以进一步提高出口商品的竞争力。