基于灰色预测国内航班延误模型研究

本文从动态演化的视角,研究了有关航班延误的国内外文献,认为影响我国航班延误因素有以下几点:航空公司自身原因、流量控制、天气原因和其他不确定因素。了解到航班延误程度与航班总量成正比。基于灰色预测模型,建立了我国航班延误总量和航班延误因素的时间数列GM(1,1)模型,经检验模型的预测精度可靠,依据所求模型,计算出了2014-2018年的航班总量,预测该时间内航班延误因素的比重,用于预防航班延误等突发状况,从而减少航空公司的损失和旅客们因等待而浪费的时间。     

离港航班延误成本研究

针对离港航班延误造成的延误成本进行计算，对延误航班费用损失确定具有一定的参考价值。文章分析航空器离场过程与航班延误成本的产生，讨论离场过程中航班延误成本的构成；以离港延误航班为研究对象，分析了航班类型与机型的差别，针对客座率受不同机型影响加以考虑，构建离港航班延误成本的计算模型；最后给出离港延误航班的成本计算公式。     

浅析航班延误的原因及应对方式

航班延误是指航班降落时间比计划降落时间(航班时刻表上的时间)延迟30分钟以上或航班取消的情况,在民航业的发展下,航班延误问题屡见不鲜,这已经成为制约航空公司发展的重要因素.本文主要针对航班延误的原因及应对方式进行分析.     

航空公司航班延误损失分析

随着我国航空运输业的迅速发展,航班延误问题也日益严重.文章在分析航班延误原因和航空公司运营成本的基础上,利用航空公司财务资料,构建了航空公司航班延误损失模型,并估算了我国五家上市航空公司2007年航班延误损失.最后,对如何降低人为因素的航班延误提出了针对性对策.     

航空公司航班延误损失分析

随着我国航空运输业的迅速发展,航班延误问题也日益严重。文章在分析航班延误原因和航空公司运营成本的基础上,利用航空公司财务资料,构建了航空公司航班延误损失模型,并估算了我国五家上市航空公司2007年航班延误损失。最后,对如何降低人为因素的航班延误提出了针对性对策。     

提高航空公司航班延误后续服务的建议

本文从我国航班延误现状出发,通过研究航班延误的原因指出航班延误是不可避免的世界性的民航问题,并对我国航班延误后续服务中存在的问题加以分析,提出航班延误后续服务的可行性建议,以期有效提高旅客满意度,减少旅客过激行为,促进民航和谐发展。     

关于民航业航班延误服务补救的探讨

航班延误是航空公司运输服务中常见且影响人数较多的一种服务失误,航班延误服务也是旅客投诉的热点。本文列举了国内航班服务中存在的三类服务失误,并进行失误原因分析;针对航班延误服务的特点,提出了事件驱动的即时服务理念;最后给出一个航班延误服务补救系统框架的建议,为航空公司的航班延误服务补救实施提供决策参考。     

航班延误群体情绪传播的影响因素研究

旅客群体冲突情绪是诱发航班延误群体冲突的直接原因。本文结合我国民航业的特点,从群体特征、民航服务等视角剖析并提出了航班延误群体情绪传播的影响因素,以期得出影响航班延误群体情绪传播的影响因素。     

航班延误影响因素的实证分析

文章采用实证研究方法构建逻辑回归模型分析航空公司航班延误的影响因素.研究发现,航空公司的偿债能力、盈利能力以及客座率、载运率等对航班延误都有显著影响.     

试论航班延误及其法律责任

探讨航空运输延误、合理延误以及不合理延误三个概念,分析了航班延误的责任构成要件,航空运输承运人只有在构成不合理延误的情况下才承担相应的民事责任。最后,阐释了航班延误引发的问题的处理意见。     

面向备货型企业的生产计划优化研究

分析了备货型企业生产计划的重要性,说明在备货型企业优化生产计划的难点。对以前使用的优化方法优缺点进行了综述,提出从新的角度来考虑生产计划的优化问题,应用多阶段策略,建立动态规划模型。通过对模型的分析,并以实例进行计算,得出的结果表明:动态规划法对备货型生产计划的优化具有较高的可靠性和有效性,为计划的调整提供了参考依据。     

Bilevel optimization for the reorganization of inland river ports: A niche perspective

To address the problems of duplicate construction, disorderly competition, small scale, and weak functionality, we examine the reorganization optimization of an inland river port group to realize its coordinated development. Considering port customers' decision-making behaviors, we propose a bilevel programming model for inland river port group reorganization based on niche theory. More specifically, an upper-level model is used to develop a reorganization plan, including the inland river port spatial layout and expansion extent, to maximize the value contributed by the port group to its region and industry and minimize the competition among the ports from the perspective of port management. More specifically, two upper-level objectives can be creatively measured by niche breadth and niche overlap. A lower-level model oriented to port customers aims to reduce their respective logistics costs by designing a transportation plan and providing feedback to the upper-level model to facilitate adjustments for port group reorganization. Since the dynamic interaction between the upper- and lower-level models significantly increases model complexity, we develop a hybrid heuristic algorithm by incorporating a genetic algorithm and an exact solution method. To verify the applicability of the proposed model and the efficiency of the developed hybrid approach, we conduct a series of numerical experiments on a real-world case study concerning Jining City, Shandong Province, China. Our case study also provides managerial insights into investment scale, land-use intensification, and the balance of planning objectives that may be useful for port managers.     

Simulation modeling and optimization for ambulance allocation considering spatiotemporal stochastic demand

To ensure a timely response to emergencies, governments are obliged to implement effective ambulance allocation plans. In practice, an emergency medical service (EMS) system works in an uncertain environment, with stochastic demand, response-times, and travel-times. This uncertainty significantly affects ambulance allocation planning. However, few studies in this field adequately consider the effect of spatiotemporal uncertainty in demand, because it is difficult to measure it quantitatively. As a result, few analytic models capture the dynamic nature of an EMS system and, thus, the allocation plans they generate are not efficient in practice. Therefore, this study proposes a simulation-based optimization method for ambulance allocation. A simulation model is constructed to mimic the operational processes of an EMS system, and to evaluate the performance of an ambulance allocation plan in an uncertain environment. Gaussian mixture model clustering is used to derive the uncertain spatial demand. Then, the simulation generates emergency demand based on the obtained spatial distribution. A Gaussian-process-based search algorithm is used together with the simulation model to identify optimal solutions. To validate the proposed method, a case study is conducted using data on emergency patients in the Shanghai Songjiang District. Compared with the current plan adopted in Songjiang, the experimental results demonstrate that the delay time and frequency of the EMS system can be reduced significantly by employing the proposed methods. Furthermore, nearly 41% of the allocation cost can be saved.     

Optimization for hierarchical multi-level planning systems using interaction prediction principle

This paper is concerned with the optimization of large-scale dynamic systems composed of interconnected subsystems. The decomposition and hierarchical multi-level approach with coordination is described for linear quadratic problem which has been available for socio-economic and production planning. In particular, we present a general solution algorithm for the two-level optimization using interaction prediction principle. A sample example for which the approach is applicable is illustrated.     

追踪列车定时运行操纵仿真建模研究

探讨了静态限速、动态限速、停车精度、旅客舒适度及机车操纵规范等机车操纵实际约束,以列车到达晚点时间最小为目标,提出了基于追踪列车动态限速计算、跟踪目标速度和停车反馈控制的追踪列车定时运行控制方法。模拟结果表明,使用该算法模拟多列车运行过程,列车可克服途中晚点干扰,通过调整目标速度尽可能地恢复正点运行,且停车精度可以控制在100mm以内,为实现基于运行图的列车群运行仿真提供了依据。     

挣值管理(EVM)的动态分析和预测研究

项目管理挣值在项目管理实践中得到广泛应用。传统的挣值管理在应用中多表现出单期、静态的特性,存在严重的局限性。将统计过程控制引入到挣值管理,以和EWMA控制图分析项目产生变差的原因,同时也为挣值的动态预测提供了基础,最后提出了挣值管理的动态分析方法。     

Case study: Targeting demand-side management for electricity transmission and distribution benefits

This paper shows how a vertically integrated utility develops a least-cost transmission and distribution (T&D) plan that considers demand-side management (DSM) to defer capacity expansion necessary for serving growing demand. The plan is the result of applying dynamic optimization techniques to a T&D planning area in the service territory of Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E), the largest privately owned utility in the USA. In the case study area alone, DSM enables PG&E to reduce the present value of its planned investment in local T&D from $112.3 million to $77.3 million over a 20-year period.     

计划体制下,管理会计对物流企业管理作用探讨——管理会计在中铁快运的应用

管理会计是从传统会计体系中分离出来的一门边缘学科,吸收了经济学、管理学、会计学、统计学等内容,与传统的财务会计相得益彰;物流管理应用管理会计是以物流成本为中心,通过对物流成本分析,对物流活动进行预测、决策、规划和控制;物流管理会计是为企业物流管理服务的,它强调"事前计划、事中控制、事后反馈"三部曲的统一,体现了一套"预测、计划、决策、控制、分析、考核"的管理模式。     

Modeling emergency evacuation with time and resource constraints: A case study from Gujarat

This study develops an off-site emergency response plan for a nuclear power plant in Gujarat, India subject to time constraints with resource limitations and risk of radiation exposure to victims. We formulate an optimization model to capture the effect of delay in evacuation, limited resource availability, and costs associated with resource allocation. A single chain closed queuing network model with class switching is used to model traffic congestion during evacuation. The throughput measures from the queuing network are used as inputs in the optimization model. Further, two resource allocation strategies are suggested and genetic algorithm is used for optimizing resource utilization and evacuation risk. The results indicate that pooling resources among a cluster of affected areas is most suitable for evacuation. Numerical experiments are conducted to analyze the time trade-offs and the effect of service time variability on the expected evacuation time. The proposed model can serve as an important resource planning and allocation tool for emergency evacuation.     

绵阳机场过站航班地面保障流程延误预警研究

针对绵阳机场航班地面保障流程构建AOE—网,求出"关键路径",结合A-CDM记录得到航班保障流程中的"关键延误作业",并通过Apriori算法对"关键延误作业"进行关联规则分析,最终得出造成航班保障累积延误的主要原因。计算结果表明,为提高航班正常性,绵阳机场应在地面保障中应着重监管廊桥/客梯车到位、旅客登机、客舱门关闭、廊桥/客梯车撤离这几项保障作业的进程和关联性。