TOO MUCH REGULATION?

This paper considers the purposes that regulation and supervision of financial institutions are designed to serve. Historical experience with regulation and supervision is considered, and it is argued on the basis of that examination that a fairly 'light touch' in regulation is likely to achieve the objectives that governments and citizens require regulation to achieve. Accordingly, the paper concludes that when regulation is evaluated and compared with unregulated systems, one should be careful to compare fallible regulation with fallible markets, rather than implicitly assuming regulation is perfect. Otherwise over-regulation will result.     

DO INSTITUTIONS AFFECT CITIZENS' SELECTION INTO POLITICS?

Political economy has primarily paid attention to the principal‐agent relationship between citizens and politicians and the role of competition and institutions in disciplining political agents. However, as the electoral control of politicians and the credibility of policy commitments are limited, this perspective needs to be complemented with an economics of political selection that takes into account the heterogeneity in the quality of those elected to political office. We review the emerging literature, which investigates the institutional determinants of political selection. We discuss pay in politics, parties, their candidate selection procedures and electoral rules, institutions enhancing transparency in politics, and institutions which govern dual office holding in different branches of government. We argue that further comparative analyses are essential in order to gain an improved understanding of the impact that institutions have on political outcomes, not only via the channel of accountability, but also via the channel of selection.     

INSURANCE BY GOVERNMENT OR AGAINST GOVERNMENT? OVERVIEW OF PUBLIC RISK MANAGEMENT POLICIES

In what contexts is it desirable that the government, rather than the private sector, takes on the role of an insurer and helps people reduce risks? Our discussion implies that while in a number of areas individuals benefit from well-designed insurance provided by their government, ill-designed public policies (for example existing pay-as-you-go pension systems) force individuals to insure against their government. It is further discussed how governments could improve their risk managing role in many areas by using income contingent loans, provided the country has high-quality institutions and governance. Such loans to artists, sportspeople, flood victims or collapsing financial institutions would replace the existing nonrepayable transfers, grants, subsidies and bailouts. Using a simple efficiency-equity-sustainability framework for comparing income contingent schemes with conventional public and private insurance policies, we document that this would enable governments to extend their insurance assistance to a greater number of people and institutions – in a way that is not only equitable but also efficient and fiscally sustainable.     

DEVELOPMENT THROUGH FAIR TRADE: CANDOUR OR DECEPTION?

Proponents of development through Fair Trade allege the movement can seek out the most disadvantaged in ways an impersonal market cannot. While in theory Fair Trade could provide these qualities in a market‐based framework, the evidence herein shows the current Fair Trade movement is failing when measured against these objectives.     

LONG DARK SHADOWS OR INNOVATIVE SPIRITS? THE EFFECTS OF (SMOOTHING) BUSINESS CYCLES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: A SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE

Abstract It is argued that fiscal policy can play a part in preventing a possible downward spiral or be instrumental in achieving a higher long‐term path of growth. Never before has this argument been advanced as frequently as in the current economic crisis. However, the economic literature – an overview of which is given here – does not provide an unambiguous answer, either theoretically or empirically, to the question of the relationship between (the smoothing of) cyclical fluctuations and long‐term growth. In this context, two main contrasting explanatory paradigms can be identified: Schumpeter’s concept of creative destruction and the learning by doing hypothesis. Even if it were possible to identify the relationship more clearly on this basis, it is important not to lose sight of the problems associated with the real‐time assessment of the current economic situation, time lags and political economic incentives even in difficult times.     

CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS – WEAPON OF MASS DESTRUCTION OR RELIABLE INDICATOR?

Credit Default Swaps (CDS) are said to increase systemic vulnerability, but they also serve as an ex‐ante indicator of default probabilities, more finely‐tuned and more responsive than ratings agency reports. And they provide a useful mechanism for trading risk and an incentive for good management by businesses and governments.     

沙龙第二轮 五月楼市:暖阳OR斜阳?“红五”OR“悬五”?

业界有金三银四红五的说法,但政策调控以及复杂的局势(加息、通胀、人民币升值等)也令今年的楼市充满了悬念,这个五月会是红五还是悬五?会否呈现五月暖阳?     

STATE EDUCATION IN THE NINETEENTH CENTURY: DEMANDED OR IMPOSED?

This article challenges the popular perception that the free market was unable to supply education to meet the needs of nineteenth-century Britain. Provision of education in fact largely accorded with parental demand, and this level of voluntary consumption was optimal for the time. Government intervention could therefore be ineffective at best, if not actively harmful.     

货币政策、利率联动效应与银行风险承担

守住不发生系统性金融风险底线,关键在于宏观货币政策与微观银行体系。在人民币国际化背景下,基于货币政策的银行风险承担渠道以及17家银行的非平衡动态面板数据,通过构建中介效应模型,实证检验了在岸离岸人民币利率联动在货币政策银行风险承担传导机制中的中介效应。研究发现,宽松的货币政策提高了银行风险承担水平;利率联动在宽松货币政策的银行风险承担渠道中发挥了完全中介效应,但在期限、渠道与微观特质三维度上呈现显著异质性。研究结论对于全面考察货币政策通过利率联动效应影响银行风险承担的核心逻辑、实时监测预警利率联动冲击下的银行风险承担水平、妥善解决“大而不能倒”风险等提供了有益的启示。     

金融衍生品与企业风险承担——基于我国制造业上市公司的经验证据

以我国沪深A股上市的制造业企业2007-2012年数据为基础,剖析了金融衍生品对企业个体风险和系统风险的影响。研究表明,无论是整体的衍生品还是不同合约类型的衍生品,对个体风险和系统风险均产生了抑制效应。进一步分析显示,衍生品对个体风险的抑制效应在显著性水平上存在着结构性差异,其中外汇衍生品的影响在统计上显著,而商品衍生品和利率衍生品则不显著。此外,还发现整体衍生品和单一衍生品对系统风险的抑制效应均不显著。     

战略联盟与企业风险承担

基于风险承担视角,研究战略联盟合作的经济效果,发现参与战略联盟的公司其整体风险承担水平显著提升。机制检验表明,战略联盟通过降低企业代理成本和企业运营成本提高企业风险承担水平。异质性分析发现,对于非国有企业、高行业竞争度企业及处于市场化水平较低区域的企业,战略联盟对企业风险承担的提升效应更大。拓展性研究表明,股权式合作模式、双边契约形式,区域商业合作文化显著增加了战略联盟对企业风险承担的提升作用。战略联盟对企业风险承担的影响具体表现为债务融资规模的扩大、资本性支出水平的提升和研发投入的增加。鉴于此,企业应积极寻求建立有效的战略联盟,监管机构应激励和支持企业构建战略联盟,以提升企业的风险承担能力,增强企业竞争优势,助推企业高质量发展。     

Does CEO gender matter for bank risk?

This paper addresses the relation between CEO gender and bank risk. We exploit a unique dataset of 365 Polish cooperative banks, 42% of which are run by female CEOs. We find that banks headed by female CEOs are less risky: they report higher capital adequacy and equity to assets ratios. Credit risk in female-led banks is not different from male-led banks, and therefore higher capital adequacy does not stem from lower asset quality and is likely to be linked to higher risk aversion of female CEOs. Our evidence supports the view that women are more risk averse bank CEOs than men. Our findings suggest that gender quotas in bank boards can contribute to reduce risk-taking behavior.