Updating Input–Output Tables with Benchmark Table Series

Numerous methods have been proposed to update input–output (I–O) tables. They rely on the assumption that the economic structure will not change significantly during the interpolation period. However, this assumption may not always hold, particularly for countries experiencing rapid development. This study attempts to combine forecasting with a matrix transformation technique (MTT) to provide a new perspective on updating I–O tables. Under the assumption that changes in the trend of an economic structure are statistically significant, the method extrapolates I–O tables by combining time series models with an MTT and proceeds with only the total value added during the target years. A simulation study and empirical analysis are conducted to compare the forecasting performance of the MTT to the Generalized RAS (GRAS) and Kuroda methods. The results show that the comprehensive performance of the MTT is better than the performance of the GRAS and Kuroda methods, as measured by the Standardized Total Percentage Error, Theil's U and Mean Absolute Percentage Error indices.     

Physician location and distribution: a social systems approach

A social systems model of the health services system serving the state of Indiana is presented. The model specifies the causal relationships hypothesized as existing among a set of social, demographic and economic variables known to be related to the supply of health manpower and facilities. Inclusion of feedback into the model as well as lagged values of physician supply variables permits the examination of the dynamic behavior of the social system over time. Estimates of the model parameters are based on data obtained from the U.S. census, the American Medical Association's physician distribution series and the annual guide issue of Hospitals, the journal of the American Hospital Association.Methods for deriving the reduced form and the final form of the structural model are presented along with the reduced and final form equations. These equations provide valuable information for policy decisions regarding the likely consequences of changes in the structure of the population and in the supply of health manpower and facilities. The structural and reduced forms of the model have been used to examine the likely consequences of several proposed policies that would affect the delivery of health services in the state of Indiana.     

Information and computation in simultaneous equations estimation

The complexity and size of simultaneous equations systems necessitates great care with computations for parameter estimation. In three-stage least-squares (3SLS) large matrix inversions are required, and because of the sensitivity of many economic systems to key parameters, accuracy in estimation is important. There are many numerical techniques available which yield accurate solutions to systems of equations. We make use of Householder transformations and recursive triangulation solutions in presenting numerical algorithms for the computation of 3SLS and k-class estimates. Another numerical technique, the singular value decomposition is valuable in providing additional information in k-class estimation. The values of k for which this estimator does not exist are accurately derived, their use being demonstrated by an example.     

Una possibile generalizzazione dei modelli economici dinamici

The aim of this paper is that of introducing a new class of economic dynamical models, wich we have called «morphogenetic systems»; these latters are been constructed in order to generalize classical Goodwin's model of business cycle. Morphogenetic systems account for the spatial features, besides the temporal ones, of economic dynamics; for this reason they are based on reaction-diffusion partial differential equations. This work results in a formalized definition of these systems; one, thus, can mathematically characterize them in a univocal way.     

Economy as a Social System: Niklas Luhmann's Contribution and its Significance for Economics

Niklas Luhmann's (1927–1998) ambitious research project was aimed not only at describing society as a global social system, but it also analyzed various subsystems (including an economic one). The article assesses Luhmann's vision of the economy, summarized mainly in his Wirtschaft der Gesellschaft, wherein he addresses basic economic notions: the economic system, money, prices, rationality, and the market. I then interpret his ideas in the context of modern discussions in economics (intersubjective structures, complex systems, and evolutionary modeling). I also propose some heuristics implied by Luhmann's economic ontology, which are potentially interesting for methodological and theoretical strategies of modern economics.     

Expectations and industry location: a discrete time dynamical analysis

The new economic geography (NEG) aims to explain long-term patterns in the spatial allocation of industrial activities. It stresses that endogenous economic processes may enlarge small historic differences leading to quite different regional patterns—history matters for the long-term geographical distribution of economic activities. A pivotal element is that productive factors move to another region whenever the anticipated remuneration is higher in that region. Given the long-term nature of NEG analyses and the crucial role of expectations, it is astonishing that most of the existing models assume only naïve or myopic expectations. However, a recent stream of the literature in behavioral and experimental economics shows that agents often use expectational heuristics, such as trend extrapolating and trend reverting rules. We introduce such expectations formation hypotheses into a NEG model formulated in discrete time. This modification leads to a system of two nonlinear difference equations (corresponding, in the language of dynamical systems theory, to a 2-dimensional piecewise smooth map) and thus enriches the possible dynamic patterns: with trend extrapolating (reverting) the symmetric equilibrium is less (more) stable; and it may lose stability only via a flip bifurcation (or also via a Neimark–Sacker bifurcation) giving rise to a period-doubling cascade (or also to quasi-periodic orbits). In both cases, complex behavior is possible; multistability, that is, the coexistence of locally stable equilibria, is pervasive; and border-collision bifurcations are also allowed. In this sense, our analysis corroborates some of the basic insights of the NEG.     

A benefit/cost model to evaluate educational programs

Essentially, a benefit/cost model provides a procedure to evaluate a project in terms of its economic objectives. The analytic task is to determine the present value of all benefits less the present value of all costs, so that the projects which maximise this difference can be selected. There are private benefits (those appropriated by the persons directly involved in the project), and social benefits (those derived by others because of the project) that should also be taken into account when public policy is involved. Limitations of data preclude us from considering all the benefits, but in the present study of the benefits of an educational program, the following have been incorporated: (1) increases in earnings due to attaining higher levels of education; (2) benefits that accrue to the offspring of the present generation resulting from the influence of the educational attainment of parents on that of their children; and (3) the reduction in juvenile crime.

The model that is used to estimate these benefits includes thirteen separate equations. A major ingredient of all of these equations is represented by equation 4 in the model:

According to this equation, the private benefits of additional education are calculated as the difference between the expected economic returns with the program (designated T) and the expected economic returns without the program. Expected economic returns are estimated by the product of lifetime earnings for each level of education (V_i) times the probability distribution of obtaining the various levels of education (P_i), where i designates a level of education. These benefits will be different for individuals with different characteristics, designated ε.

The parameters of the model have been estimated by the use of Census data for earnings, and various special survey data for the probabilities of educational attainment and committing juvenile crimes. Essentially an educational program changes the probabilities of educational attainment, increasing the probability of graduating from high school and going on to college.

In this study, we applied the model to a Title I ESEA, program in San Francisco, California, during 1966–1967. Since the program was implemented in the elementary grades, we used the mathematics of Markov Chains to estimate the probabilities of eventual grade level attainment. We found that prior to the program, about half of the disadvantaged non-Negro males and considerably more than half of the Negro males could be expected to be dropouts. The model showed, however, that a Title I program in San Francisco costing $220 per child sufficiently raised test scores in elementary grades so that the expected dropout rates were reduced about 3 per cent for non-Negro and 2 per cent for Negro male pupils.     

Economic systems in developing countries – A macro cluster approach

This study is an attempt to close a gap in the comparative capitalism literature. Studies in that field focus mostly on industrialized countries, discuss economic systems in developing regions separately, and do not provide evidence based on a worldwide sample. We use an established macroeconomic cluster approach to identify economic systems in a worldwide sample of 115 developing and industrialized countries. We use an innovative approach to correct for income-related differences that would otherwise distort the cluster results. The major results are (1) that two broad categories of economic systems exist in developing countries (liberal and coordinated), which mirrors the results for industrialized countries, and (2) that economic systems in developing countries are apparently determined by a mixture of colonial heritage—with the transfer of more liberal institutions in the case of British colonialization—and regional affiliation, which explain differences within continents and between continents.     

On the efficient estimation methods for the macro-economic models nonlinear in variables

All the macro-economic models have the nonlinearity in variables within their simultaneous equations systems. I propose a full information estimation method for such models. The method is (i) asymptotically efficient, (ii) feasible in the contemporary computer technology as it consists of calculations very much like the nonlinear multipliers, and (iii) hopefully applicable to the undersized sample case which prevails in the macro-economic model building. Though two other methods are also investigated, one is found to be asymptotically inefficient, and another turns out to be inapplicable to the undersized sample case.     

An endogenously clustered factor approach to international business cycles

Factor models have become useful tools for studying international business cycles. Block factor models can be especially useful as the zero restrictions on the loadings of some factors may provide some economic interpretation of the factors. These models, however, require the econometrician to predefine the blocks, leading to potential misspecification. In Monte Carlo experiments, we show that even a small misspecification can lead to substantial declines in fit. We propose an alternative model in which the blocks are chosen endogenously. The model is estimated in a Bayesian framework using a hierarchical prior, which allows us to incorporate series‐level covariates that may influence and explain how the series are grouped. Using international business cycle data, we find our country clusters differ in important ways from those identified by geography alone. In particular, we find that similarities in institutions (e.g., legal systems, language diversity) may be just as important as physical proximity for analyzing business cycle comovements.     

Macroeconomic forecast accuracy in a data‐rich environment

The performance of six classes of models in forecasting different types of economic series is evaluated in an extensive pseudo out‐of‐sample exercise. One of these forecasting models, regularized data‐rich model averaging (RDRMA), is new in the literature. The findings can be summarized in four points. First, RDRMA is difficult to beat in general and generates the best forecasts for real variables. This performance is attributed to the combination of regularization and model averaging, and it confirms that a smart handling of large data sets can lead to substantial improvements over univariate approaches. Second, the ARMA(1,1) model emerges as the best to forecast inflation changes in the short run, while RDRMA dominates at longer horizons. Third, the returns on the S&P 500 index are predictable by RDRMA at short horizons. Finally, the forecast accuracy and the optimal structure of the forecasting equations are quite unstable over time.     

Max Weber as an Economist and as a Sociologist

A bstract In this article I first give a picture of Weber as an economist, mainly by focussing on a text which he distributed to his students when he taught economics in the 1890s. From this text it is, for example, clear that Weber was positive to the use of marginal utility theory in theoretical economics, but also felt that this approach was insufficient, by itself, to analyze empirical phenomena. I then outline Weber's work in economic sociology, relying primarily on Economy and Society and its central Chapter 2 ("Sociological Categories of Economic Action"). The differences between the approaches of economic theory and economic sociology, as seen by Weber, are summarized, and an account is given of some of Weber's most suggestive concepts in economic sociology. In the concluding section the question is raised as to when the analyst, according to Weber, should use economic sociology rather than economic theory, and vice versa. Weber's ideas about a broad economic science–what he termed Sozialökonomik or social economics–are also presented.     

COMMON SEASONAL FEATURES: GLOBAL UNEMPLOYMENT

Seasonal patterns in economic time series are generally examined from a univariate point of view. Using extensions of the unit root literature, important classes of seasonal processes are deterministic, stationary stochastic or mean reverting, and unit root stochastic. Time series tests have been developed for each of these. This paper examines seasonality in a multivariate context. Systems of economic variables can have trends, cycles and unit roots as well as the various types of seasonality. Restrictions such as cointegration and common cycles are here applied also to examine multivariate seasonal behaviour of economic variables. If each of a collection of series has a certain type of seasonality but a linear combination of these series can be found without seasonality, then the seasonal is said to be ‘common’. New tests are developed to determine if seasonal characteristics are common to a set of time series. These tests can be employed in the presence of various other time series structures. The analysis is applied to OECD data on unemployment for the period 1975.1 to 1993.4, and it is found that four diverse countries (Australia, Canada, Japan and USA) not only have common trends in their unemployment, but also have common deterministic seasonal features and a common cycle/stochastic seasonal feature. Such a collection of characteristics were not found in other groups of OECD countries.     

National Values and Economic Growth

A bstract    Using data on economic values and attitudes for various nations from the World Value Study, I show that the strength of values associated with market success does not appear to have a significant impact on the rate of economic growth in a sample of developing and developed market economies. I also show that such values do not seem related to the economic system and have an ambiguous relation to the overall level of economic development. These negative results suggest that, contrary to common belief, knowledge about such values does not seem very useful in helping us understand economic growth or differences in levels of economic development or economic systems in various countries.     

Embodying Embodiment in a Structural,Macroeconomic Input-Output Model

In this paper, I develop a regression-based system of labour productivity equations that account for capital-embodied technological change and I incorporate this system into IDLIFT, a structural, macroeconomic input-output model of the US economy. Builders of regression-based forecasting models have long had difficulty finding labour productivity equations that exhibit the "Solowian' property that movements in investment should cause accompanying movements in labour productivity. The production theory developed by Solow and others dictates that this causation is driven by the effect of traditional capital deepening as well as technological change embodied in capital. Lack of measurement of the latter has hampered the ability of researchers to estimate properly the productivity-investment relationship. Recent research by Wilson (2001) has alleviated this difficulty by estimating industry-level embodied technological change. In this paper, I utilize those estimates to construct capital stocks adjusted for technological change and then use these adjusted stocks to estimate Solow-type labour productivity equations. It is shown that replacing IDLIFT's former productivity equations, based on changes in output and time trends, with the new equations, results in a convergence between the dynamic behaviour of the model and that predicted by traditional (Solowian) production theory.     

Stochastic error specification in primal and dual production systems

In this paper we derive both primal and dual‐cost systems in which the stochastic specifications arise from the model (random environment or measurement errors and optimization errors)—not tacked on at the end after the deterministic system is worked out. Derivation of the error structures is based on cost‐minimizing behavior on the firms. The primal systems constitute the production function and the first‐order conditions of cost minimization. We consider two dual‐cost systems. The first dual system is based on the cost function and cost share equations. The second dual system is based on a multiplicative general error production model that is an alternative to McElroy's additive general error production model. Our multiplicative general error model gives a clear and intuitive economic meaning to the error components. The resulting cost system is easy to estimate compared to the alternative cost systems. The error components in the multiplicative general error model can capture heterogeneity in the technology parameters even in a cross‐sectional model. Panel data are not necessary to estimate either the primal or dual systems. The models are estimated using data on 72 fossil fuel‐fired steam electric power generation plants (observed for the period 1986–1999) in the USA. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

地铁信号系统发展趋势及功能区别

地铁信号系统,是保证列车高效、安全运行的核心部件。信号系统的发展,经历了一系列的演变,现在已越来越趋于成熟。随着信号系统的不断升级及发展,各种信号系统在设计理念及功能方面都有了差异。文章主要以南京地铁一号线及二号线的信号系统进行对比。     

Multicointegration in Stock-Flow Models

Multicointegration, in the sense of Granger and Lee (1990), frequently occurs in models of stock-flow adjustment and implies cointegration amongst I(2) variables and their differences (polynomial cointegration). The purpose of this article is two-fold. First, we demonstrate that based on a multicointegrated vector autoregression (VAR) two equivalent error correction model (ECM) representations can be derived; the first is expressed in terms of adjustments in the flows of the variables (the standard I(2) ECM), and the second is expressed in terms of adjustments in both the stocks and the flows. Secondly, we apply I(2) estimation and testing procedures for multicointegrated time series to analyze data for US housing construction. We find that stocks of housing units started and completed exhibit poly- nomial cointegration (and hence the flows are multicointegrated) and the associated ECM's are estimated. Lee (1992, 1996) also found multicointegration in this data set but without explicitly exploiting the I(2) property.     

State Lotteries, Isolation and Economic Growth in the U.S.

This paper uses a Granger causality test adapted for use with cross-section time series data, to (1) test the relationship between lottery revenue and state economic growth (per capita income), and (2) address the importance of cross-border purchases in the relationship. Neither issue has been empirically tested previously. Previous evidence (Caudill, et al., 1995) suggests that states surrounded by lotteries are more likely than isolated states to introduce lotteries. But the empirical results here suggest that lotteries do not contribute to economic growth unless the state is isolated from other state lotteries. The importance of isolation suggests that cross-border purchases (exports) of lottery tickets have a significant impact on the effectiveness of lotteries as fiscal policies, and that "defensive" lotteries (those introduced to keep citizens from buying tickets from neighboring states) are ineffective.     

Architecture,Economic Imaginaries and Urban Politics: The Office Tower as Socially Classifying Device

In recent studies on the role of architecture in urban restructuring, city marketing and the related struggles for meaning, there has been a focus on high‐profile architects and iconic architecture. In this article I wish to examine architecture and building types as ‘socially signifying devices’, in order to take more everyday buildings and their images into account as well. Using Vienna as a case study, I explore how the commercial office tower is utilized to represent the internationalization of the local economy and render new urban political‐economic strategies socially meaningful. This is done by examining recent shifts in urban policy, and the means, channels and practices of discursive and visual representation of the local office architecture. Connecting the concept of economic imaginaries from cultural political economy (CPE) with a sociological approach to building types, I argue that economic imaginaries gain in plausibility if they are discursively and visually anchored in urban space. However, it is also shown that this kind of spatialization of new economic imaginaries is constructed on a selective visual representation of buildings: the assignment of international economic activities to local office towers is revealed to be only partially true in the case of Vienna.