关于中日韩建立自由贸易区的研究

进入新世纪以来中日韩三国的经济合作日益成为世界经济中的重要组成部分,本文从中日韩三国建立自由贸易区的实际情况出发,通过对中日韩三国的经贸关系现状分析,以及对建立中日韩自由贸易区的制约因素进行分析,最后,对中日韩自由贸易区的发展前景做了预测,并提出了建立中日韩自由贸易区的政策建议。     

构建东亚铁三角——论中日韩自由贸易区的建立

一、建立中日韩自由贸易区的可行性分析 经济区域一体化是当今世界经济发展的一大趋势.东亚继欧盟、北美自由贸易区后成为世界经济三大重心之一,中日韩更是当今世界最为活跃的经济体.但三国真正意义上的区域经济一体化合作尤其是组建中日韩自由贸易区的进程缓慢,三国紧密的经济联系,高度互补的经济使建立中日韩自由贸易区日益迫切,由于三国间众多领域的紧密合作和经济的高度互补性,为三国组建自由贸易区提供了成熟的条件.     

建立自由贸易区可行性分析

本文主要从中日韩三国经贸关系、经济的互补性以及比较优势入手进行分析。首先,通过一系列的数据分析总结了中日韩三国的贸易现状。其次,从三国各自存在的优势分析三国经济的互补性。最后,从三国的比较优势分析建立中日韩自由贸易区的可行性。     

谈贸易自由对经济的促进作用

在当今世界经济的三大板块中,欧洲、北美的区域经济一体化发展较成熟。而东亚要想实现区域经济一体化,中日韩自由贸易区的建立就势在必行。且三国政府也做出了相应的努力,2013年3月到11月期间中日韩三国政府关于建立中日韩自由贸易区进行了三次谈判,这三次谈判就机制问题、政治经济等问题进行了详细的讨论与谈判。在这三次谈判有序进行地情况下,我们更能看到建立自由贸易区的希望。     

中日韩：三国企业家调查报告——中日韩企业三个“孤独者”的肖像

尽管以中日韩三国寿核心的“东北亚自由贸易区”设想受阻于经济体制、经济发展水平，意识形态．文化传统等等现实因素而难有实质推进，但是中日韩三国企业家、尤其是中韩两国企业家对东北亚自贸区的建立仍表现出了相当强烈的愿望。务实的商人比真正对“东北亚自由贸易区”有决策权的人们显得更加直接、冒进。     

建立中日韩自由贸易区的经济效应与展望

本文从中日韩三国的贸易现状以及建立自贸区的障碍因素入手,对建立中日韩自贸区的现实基础进行了分析,并从贸易创造效应、贸易转移效应、投资效应、竞争效应及规模经济效应等几方面分析了建立中日韩自贸区的经济效应,并针对目前进程缓慢的情况,对中日韩自贸区的建立提出了建议及对策。     

中日韩区域经济合作的障碍因素分析A

中日韩三国是亚洲经济实力最强的国家,三国的区域经济合作呼声由来已久.本文具体分析了中日韩在区域经济合作中的障碍因素,如果三国能够直面这些障碍并加以克服,这将大大加快建设中日韩区域经济合作的脚步.     

夯实不动产的资本市场之路——中日韩国际不动产研讨会听风录

10月中旬，第二届中日韩国际不动产研讨会在西安市召开。本届研讨会旨在通过建立中日韩三国不动产估价的交流平台，共享不动产估价研究成果。研讨会围绕不动产投资信托、不动产鉴定评估等问题进行深入探讨与广泛交流，帮助全国土地估价行业和国内外专家之间建立广泛的联系和交流。不动产投资信托中的估价是研讨会的主要议题之一。     

中日韩会计准则制定机构负责人在京签署备忘录

近日，中日韩三国会计准则制定机构负责人会议在北京召开。会议就三国会计准则最新进展、三国会计准则制定机构过去十年的合作成果和未来的合作规划等问题进行了深入沟通和交流，达成了诸多共识。中日韩三国会计准则定机构负责人签署了《中日韩三国会地准则制定机构负责人北京会议备忘录》     

一场制造业物流的盛宴--记第四届中日韩物流技术与应用交流会

由中目韩三国物流界权威机构共同打造的物流技术与应用交流会已经成为亚洲物流技术与设备领域的品牌会议。专业实用的主题、先进技术与设备的经验交流、国际区域性的合作,使中日韩交流会成为一个求真务实的会。而对中日韩三国的物流同仁来说,它更像是一场物流的盛宴。在这场盛宴中制造业物流成为焦点话题。     

Does regionalism lead to more global trade integration in East Asia?

Since early 1999, global trade liberalization has been sidelined as regional trade agreements (RTA) have become the preferred choice in East Asia. Does this shift suggest that global trade and welfare levels will be raised? In contrast to unilateral trade liberalization, RTAs may well cause both ‘trade creation’ and ‘trade diversion,’ so that their net effect on global trade and welfare becomes ambiguous. It is conjectured that RTAs among “natural trading partners” are more likely to be trade-creating, and less likely to divert trade from non-member countries, in which case welfare will improve. We find that if an RTA involves geographically proximate countries (measured either by distance or border), trade significantly increases among them. At the same time, geographical proximity also contributes to increasing trade between members and the rest of the world. We examine how existing or proposed East Asian trading blocs affect intra-bloc and extra-bloc trade and thereby global trade. We find that the East Asian RTAs are likely to create more trade among members without diverting trade from non-members.     

Offshoring,globalization, and welfare

We investigate the issue of offshoring in a general-equilibrium model of two countries and one sector of increasing returns to scale. Our model uncovers that offshoring occurs and endogenously evolves in a bell-shaped pattern when trade costs decline, explaining some stylized facts in developed countries. Furthermore, this simple framework can be applied to examine the welfare issue. We find that a fall in offshoring costs benefits the high-wage country but hurts the low-wage country. On the other hand, the low-wage country benefits with trade liberalization. The impact of falling trade costs on the welfare of the high-wage country depends on the values of offshoring freeness.     

我国贸易多样性的收益分析和影响因素——基于内延边际与外延边际的考察

本研究以我国贸易多样性为研究对象,通过多国模型阐述了贸易自由化可增加多样性贸易福利;基于Feenstra(1994)的贸易多样性指数,本文给出了1995~2007年我国贸易扩张的内延边际和外延边际,2001年之后贸易的外延边际(多样性扩张)带来的贸易收益十分显著。实证结果表明,人均收入的跨国差异不利于贸易多样性的扩张,关税和非关税壁垒同样成为我国进口多样性的阻力因素,而中小企业群体规模对贸易多样性扩张的贡献作用显著。     

国际资本流动与国际贸易关系:“Mundell模型悖论”

文章通过建立“Mundell模型悖论”模型,解释发展中国家对发达国家的投资对国际贸易的影响。分析得出的结论是:(1)发展中国家对发达国家的投资是贸易导向的;(2)应该以获取发达国家的先进生产技术为投资目的;(3)发达国家和发展中国家均能增加消费,增加各自的福利。文章最后给出了政策建议。     

Regionalism in the nineties: what effect on trade?

We apply a gravity model to 1980–1996 annual nonfuel imports data for 58 countries to quantify the effects of recently created or revamped PTAs on trade. We modify the gravity equation to identify separate effects of PTAs on intrabloc trade, members’ total imports and their total exports and to test for significant changes in trade patterns following the creation of trade blocs. We find no indication that ‘new regionalism’ boosted intrabloc trade significantly and we find trade diversion only for the EU and EFTA. The latter also exhibit ‘export diversion’, which could indicate their imposing welfare costs on other countries. Latin American trade liberalization in the 1990s had a positive impact on bloc members’ imports and, usually, exports.     

The effect of European integration on trade with the APEC countries: 1981–2000

This study examines whether the European Union (EU) integration has resulted in significant trade decrease with the three Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) sub-groups during 1981–2000: NAFTA, ASEAN, and NIC. To include all the trade data including those with zero data values, this study estimates the modified gravity model using the scaled ordinary least squares method. First, as expected, the EU countries have reduced trade with all three sub-groups, especially during 1996–2000. However, the ASEAN countries maintain a stable level of trade growth with the EU countries. Second, the results indicate that the EU, ASEAN, and NIC countries trade significantly more among themselves due to their respective integration schemes. (JEL F20, F100)     

Regional integration among the unequal: a CGE model of NAFTA and the Central American republics

This paper addresses two questions. The first is the impact of alternative regional integration accords on trade, welfare and development in the small developing countries of Central America as well as the larger rich countries of NAFTA. The second concerns differences in options facing the Central American countries and what reformed institutional mechanisms might be needed for optimal regional arrangements.     

全球化背景下我国出口退税政策的经济效应

本文通过将出口退税政策变量纳入全球模拟(GSIM)模型,从产业层面和全球视角对出口退税政策通过价格机制影响有关国家的生产、进出口贸易流量、生产者与消费者福利等经济活动进行理论分析。并基于2007年全球纺织品生产与贸易数据,对我国纺织品出口退税政策的主要经济效应进行了模拟分析。结果表明,提高纺织品出口退税率将使我国纺织品的产出、出口以及行业生产者的福利都有所增加,而纺织品内销量有所减少以及消费者的福利受损。     

U.S. Strategic Trade Policy and the Competitiveness of the U.S. Construction Industry in Developing Country Markets

SUMMARY

U.S. government trade policy increasingly reflects “strategic trade” beliefs that, because competition in markets is imperfect, governments can act strategically to affect trade flows and enhance national welfare. The U.S. National Export Strategy targets the infrastructure sector in twelve developing countries as a strategic opportunity for U.S. construction firms. This paper examines whether U.S. government export promotion initiatives effectively implement strategic trade policy by providing appropriate support to these firms in that target market. It concludes that, within limits, they do.     

The evolution of free trade networks

This paper considers the evolutionary dynamics of a free trade agreement (FTA) network formation game among N countries. We first explore the static model introduced by Goyal and Joshi (2006) and precisely characterize the set of pairwise stable FTA networks. Then, we develop a dynamic model under random perturbations and identify long-run outcomes to remove prediction uncertainty inherited from static analysis. The results show that both partial free trade and global free trade will result when there are only three countries. However, when more countries are involved, only the complete FTA network emerges.