论如何提高地面气象测报工作质量

文章根据地面气象测报工作现状,结合笔者多年测报工作经验,谈几点提高地面测报工作质量的体会。     

论如何提高地面气象测报工作质量

文章根据地面气象测报工作现状,结合笔者多年测报工作经验,谈几点提高地面测报工作质量的体会。     

浅谈如何利用科技手段提高地面测报工作质量

地面测报工作是气象部门的基础工作,随着科技的进步,技术的提高。地面测报工作的自动化程度也越来越高,如何利用科技手段提高地面测报的质量是气象部门重要的课题。     

汛期地面测报工作浅析

在汛期,天气复杂多变,地面测报人员若不具备全面的实际工作经验,对突发性的、灾害性的天气应急能力不强,较易出现各种错误。本文针对本地区汛期常见的雷暴、强降水、大风、冰雹天气现象,浅要分析了汛期地面测报人员的注意事项。最后,概述了汛期其他天气状况下的工作要点,希望有助于提高地面测报工作的业务质量。     

如何减少地面测报发报错误探析

文章针对广西2009年地面测报质量通报中发报存在的错情,总结几点实践经验,以期减少发报错误,从而提高地面测报工作的质量。     

如何减少地面测报发报错误探析

文章针对广西2009年地面测报质量通报中发报存在的错情,总结几点实践经验,以期减少发报错误,从而提高地面测报工作的质量。     

论特殊天气测报工作步骤

文章介绍了地面测报遇到突发性的特殊天气（如冰雹、大风、龙卷等）时的工作步骤,目的是为了减少观测员测报特殊天气时所出现的差错。     

论特殊天气测报工作步骤

文章介绍了地面测报遇到突发性的特殊天气(如冰雹、大风、龙卷等)时的工作步骤,目的是为了减少观测员测报特殊天气时所出现的差错。     

病虫害测报体系建设初探

病虫测报是植保工作的重点和基础,如何更好地发展病虫测报对于我们植保系统更好地开展技术服务有着决定性作用。作者在近些年来通过实际工作得出,要想加强测报体系建设,必须提高测报人员的素质,重视病虫测报应用,测报工具精确,能够及时准确地将测报数据发布。     

恶劣天气下气象测报问题及应对措施

气象预报是人们各项经济活动的决策依据，气象预报的准确程度同人们的生活息息相关，而冰雪、雷电、大雾及暴雨等恶劣天气对气象测报有极大的影响，因此探究恶劣天气下气象测报问题具有非常重要的意义。本文主要阐述了在恶劣天气下常见的气象测报问题及处理办法，并总结了相关的应对措施，以期有效提高观测质量，保证地面气象测报的准确性。     

The sampling distribution of forecasts from a first-order autoregression

Previous work on characterising the distribution of forecast errors in time series models by statistics such as the asymptotic mean square error has assumed that observations used in estimating parameters are statistically independent of those used to construct the forecasts themselves. This assumption is quite unrealistic in practical situations and the present paper is intended to tackle the question of how the statistical dependence between the parameter estimates and the final period observations used to generate forecasts affects the sampling distribution of the forecast errors. We concentrate on the first-order autoregression and, for this model, show that the conditional distribution of forecast errors given the final period observation is skewed towards the origin and that this skewness is accentuated in the majority of cases by the statistical dependence between the parameter estimates and the final period observation.     

观测环境城市化对风的影响

文章通过对玉林站30年的极大风速进行对比,简述玉林站观测场周边环境的变化对观测场环境和风等气象要素的影响。     

A new approach to estimating earnings forecasting models: Robust regression MM-estimation

This study focuses on the impact of model estimation methods on earnings forecast accuracy. Compared with an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression combined with winsorization, robust regression MM-estimation improves the earnings forecast accuracy of all the models examined, especially for those with more variables. My findings indicate that the impact of outliers on the OLS regression increases with the number of variables in the models, alerting researchers who use OLS regressions for forecasting. My findings explain the puzzling negative relationship between earnings forecast accuracy and the number of model variables in prior research. Moreover, I demonstrate the valuation implications of earnings forecasted using robust regression MM-estimation. This study contributes to earnings forecasting, valuation, and influential observation treatment in forecasting.     

气象装备编码规则的研究

随着编码技术的普及,多数行业都开始使用编码,来提高管理效率。然而气象行业至今没有一个统一的气象装备编码标准,因而无法对气象装备进行统一、高效地管理。为了使气象装备管理更加便捷高效,同时方便综合气象观测运行监控系统对气象装备的监控,对气象装备进行编码迫在眉睫,对气象装备编码规则的研究是气象装备编码的前提,也是当前工作的重中之重。文章首先介绍了气象装备编码的重要性,分析了其他行业的编码现状,重点描述了气象装备编码规则制定中遇到的问题。其次,针对这些问题,深入研究,提出了我们的解决方案。最后,对我们提出方案的优越性进行了分析和论证。     

广西水电设计院第五栋宿舍楼的变形观测与预报

文章研究了利用时间序列分析方法ARMA（p，q）模型建立变形监测分析及预报的方法，并对时间序列分析方法的应用进行初步探讨。同时，在理论研究的基础上，对具体变形点进行时间序列分析，运用3种模型进行变形观测数据的解算预测。     

On the asymmetry of the symmetric MAPE

Several authors have suggested that the use of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a measure of forecast accuracy should be avoided because they argue it treats forecast errors above the actual observation differently from those below this value. To counter this, the use of a symmetric (or modified) MAPE has been proposed. This paper shows that, in its treatment of negative and positive errors, the proposed modification is far from symmetric, particularly where these errors have large absolute values. It also shows that, under some circumstances, a non-monotonic relationship can occur between the symmetric MAPE and the absolute forecast errors.     

A robust support vector regression model for electric load forecasting

Electric load forecasting is a crucial part of business operations in the energy industry. Various load forecasting methods and techniques have been proposed and tested. With growing concerns about cybersecurity and malicious data manipulations, an emerging topic is to develop robust load forecasting models. In this paper, we propose a robust support vector regression (SVR) model to forecast the electricity demand under data integrity attacks. We first introduce a weight function to calculate the relative importance of each observation in the load history. We then construct a weighted quadratic surface SVR model. Some theoretical properties of the proposed model are derived. Extensive computational experiments are based on the publicly available data from Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012 and ISO New England. To imitate data integrity attacks, we have deliberately increased or decreased the historical load data. Finally, the computational results demonstrate better accuracy of the proposed robust model over other recently proposed robust models in the load forecasting literature.     

0907号热带风暴“天鹅”预报服务经验分析

受热带风暴＂天鹅＂的影响,广西北海市出现了连续几天的降雨和海面强风。文章详述了北海市气象局应对热带风暴＂天鹅＂的具体预报及服务工作,为相关气象预报工作提供经验借鉴。     

自动站与人工站降水量差异分析

利用陕西省8个气象站平行观测期间的自动站与人工站降水量资料,对日降水量差异、造成差异原因以及差异对气候预测评分的影响进行分析。结果表明:日降水量差值基本在正常范围之内,只有3个样本超出了误差范围;采集原理不同、采集时间不同步是造成差异的主要原因;自动站与人工站降水量观测记录的差异,导致个别月份气候预测分级评分出现错级现象,产生了两种不同的评分结果,给正确衡量预测水平带来误差。