绿色贸易壁垒的特征、影响及对策

随着世界贸易自由化的进一步发展,一种新的贸易保护策略——绿色贸易壁垒随之而来,绿色贸易壁垒是近年来发达国家限制发展中国家产品进入其国内市场的重要贸易保护措施之一。我国作为发展中国家,出口产品深受绿色贸易壁垒之害。     

Services trade restrictiveness and manufacturing export sophistication

This paper highlights the importance of services trade liberalization. It is well-known that there is a strong relationship between the level of economic development of a country and the quality of its export basket. Since the pioneering work of Hausmann, Hwang, and Rodrik (2007), several studies have attempted to identify the determinants of export sophistication. In this paper, based on the existing literature, we argue that restrictiveness of services sector trade can have a negative impact on the level of export sophistication. Using panel data from 36 countries over the 2005–2014 period, we show that the impact of services sector trade restrictiveness on export sophistication is negative and statistically significant. We find that this negative effect has increased in the post-2007 period. Furthermore, restrictiveness of trade in modern services is relatively more detrimental to manufacturing export sophistication. A series of endogeneity and robustness tests confirm the reliability of our main empirical result. Our analysis suggests that services sector trade liberalization can also be used as a development strategy by developing countries.     

NEOCLASSICAL POLITICAL ECONOMY: AN APPLICATION TO TRADE POLICIES

Abstract. This paper starts with a review of the literature on 'neoclassical'political economy and then goes on to apply this perspective to the issue of trade liberalization. In this connection, the paper critically discusses various political economy models which have been advanced to explain patterns of trade policies in both developed and developing countries and assesses them in light of recent empirical evidence. The paper also makes a brief review of the empirical planning studies which estimate the gains from trade liberalization.     

碳关税对世界经济和农产品贸易的影响研究

采用GTAP 8.0模拟欧盟、美国、日本分别和同时征收碳关税时对世界经济和产品贸易的影响。结果表明：碳关税将对世界经济均衡增长产生负面影响,受影响最大的是中国、金砖和东盟国家;碳关税将改变世界贸易结构和贸易利益格局,发达国家受益、发展中国家受损;碳关税将使世界农产品出口总额小幅下降,但对改善世界农产品贸易结构具有积极作用。     

基于引力模型的服务贸易决定因素分析

近年来,服务贸易在世界经济中的重要性日益增加。研究影响中国服务贸易发展的决定因素,并探寻合理化的路径以促进服务贸易发展,具有较强的现实意义。研究发现,引力模型适用于中国对外服务贸易决定因素的解释,双边服务贸易额与两国的GDP成正比,与距离成反比。而且,两国的经济规模差异越小,双边贸易量就越大。另外,贸易伙伴国服务业产值占比的上升,有利于增进中国对其服务进口。但是,中国服务业产值占比的增加,并未提升中国服务贸易的出口能力。因此,必须高度重视服务业的发展,促进工业与服务业关系的互动协调,在关键领域形成具有自主知识产权的核心专利和技术标准,大力发展知识、资本、技术密集型服务业。     

Explaining trade policy in the Middle East and North Africa

This paper examines the evolution of trade policy in the Middle East and North Africa (MNA) countries since the 1960s. It shows that contrary to the current popular perception, until the 1980s MNA countries were generally more open than the rest of the developing world. That situation changed in the 1980s and especially the 1990s as most MNA countries maintained their trade policies, while many other developing countries proceeded with liberalization. The paper develops and estimates a political economy model of trade policy to search for the factors behind the initial relative openness of the region and its reversal. The results show that the pattern is related to the rise and decline of the region's resource rents, which affected the political weight of domestic producers versus consumers. Other factors are also considered, but they all seem to have secondary effects.     

论国际服务贸易自由化与中国服务业的对外开放

当前国际服务贸易自由化趋势已成为强劲的时代潮流。在此背景下,中国应如何开放服务业以把握机遇,又该如何实行适度保护以规避风险,这些都是亟待解决的问题。文中首先分析了国际服务贸易自由化对中国服务业和服务贸易的影响,继而提出了中国服务业实现对外开放的模式、原则及策略。     

Offshoring,globalization, and welfare

We investigate the issue of offshoring in a general-equilibrium model of two countries and one sector of increasing returns to scale. Our model uncovers that offshoring occurs and endogenously evolves in a bell-shaped pattern when trade costs decline, explaining some stylized facts in developed countries. Furthermore, this simple framework can be applied to examine the welfare issue. We find that a fall in offshoring costs benefits the high-wage country but hurts the low-wage country. On the other hand, the low-wage country benefits with trade liberalization. The impact of falling trade costs on the welfare of the high-wage country depends on the values of offshoring freeness.     

Does digital service trade boost technological innovation?: International evidence

Digital technology is profoundly changing the international economic and trade pattern, and digital service trade is increasingly becoming an important carrier of transnational knowledge spillover. This study investigates the relationship between digital service trade and technological innovation. Based on the panel data of 131 countries from 2005 to 2020, empirical results show that digital service trade significantly promotes technological innovation. This study shows that digital service trade can promote technological innovation through four mechanisms: increasing income incentives, accelerating knowledge spillover, triggering trade liberalization, and promoting financial deepening. The results of panel threshold model show that economic development, urbanization, and population aging can lead to regime changes in the innovation effect of digital service trade. In addition, the results of heterogeneity test show that national characteristics such as economic development, per capita income, industrialization, and economic freedom, influence the innovation effect of digital service trade. Our findings have implications for developing an international innovation cooperation system based on digital service trade.     

Agricultural Trade Liberalization in a Computable General Equilibrium Framework for the Philippines

A bi-regional and multi-market computable general equilibrium model that focuses on the agricultural sector of the Philippines' economy in 1987 is constructed. This paper presents the basic structure of the model and carries out some cost-benefit analyses to assess the impact of alternative trade reform policies on the economy. It is found that various liberalization policies can produce large benefits, but any single policy implemented separately may incur intolerable costs. However, a combination of trade liberalization and currency devaluation, coupled with target income support and income tax reform, can achieve balanced results that are beneficial to the economy without worsening income distribution and food consumption of the poor.     

中国引进环境技术存在问题研究综述

引进发达国家先进的环境技术是发展中国家用于改善本国环境质量的重要手段。目前全球普遍存在的技术转移方式是国际贸易、外商直接投资、CDM机制下的国际经济合作和国际援助。本文从上述国际环境技术转移的主要方式出发,通过对近年来国内外相关研究文献的研读分析,总结出中国引进环境技术方面存在的障碍和原因,最终提出解决这些问题亟须国际转让机制的创新和政府激励机制的发挥。     

我国服务贸易现状及竞争力研究

伴随着经济全球化与国际经济分工的发展,服务业已成为全球第一大产业,服务业发展水平成为衡量一个国家或地区生产社会化程度和市场经济发展水平的重要标志。与服务业相适应的国际服务贸易发展也十分迅速并已经成为一个国家对外开放的窗口和渠道,成为衡量一个国家整体水平的重要指标并正逐渐成为全球经济发展与竞争的重点。     

贸易保护对全球投资与经济增长的影响

本文在全球治理模型的基础上，模拟分析美国以及世界各主要国家和地区对进出口产品均提高关税后对经济增长的影响。模拟结果显示，美国有针对性地增加产品关税对美国经济增长并不有利，其贸易保护政策可能难以持续，而如果世界各主要国家和地区对进出口产品均提高关税，将使得印度以及低收入发展中国家的经济增长受到较大负面影响。经济的发展受到需求推动和生产技术推动，主导贸易保护只会进一步加剧矛盾，世界经济的发展需要各个国家和地区的共同努力和协同促进。     

国际贸易便利化对顾客满意度的影响研究

国际贸易发展是世界经济进步的重要表现。全球化背景下,经济和科技不断发展,人们对于生活的要求也发生了各种各样的变化,其中顾客对于产品的满意度直接影响了企业的利润增长,所以如何提高顾客满意度是经济发展的重要因素。国际贸易便利化是全球化背景下出现的新型经济特点,国际贸易便利化使各国对外贸易的政策发生了改变,实现了对国际贸易链条的全部环节的覆盖,顺应时代背景的发展。贸易便利化的发展趋势必不可挡,在国际贸易便利化发展过程中对于顾客满意度有着很大的影响。     

低碳贸易壁垒的内容、影响及应对措施

发展低碳经济,减少碳排放,是延缓全球气候变暖的迫切需要。以低碳经济为代表的新技术革命也是全球经济复苏的引擎和下一轮经济增长的动力。制定碳标准,征收碳关税,一方面起到了监督减排责任的作用,但另一方面也成为新的技术性贸易壁垒。低碳贸易壁垒是在应对气候变化的大背景下产生的一类新型贸易措施,贸易保护主义将来更多是以低碳壁垒等技术性壁垒出现。由碳关税和低碳壁垒衍生的税收成本和技术标准的提高,将给包括中国在内的新兴经济体的出口产品增加生产成本,影响其出口贸易的发展。为应对世界经济和贸易格局向低碳化演变及发达国家设置低碳贸易壁垒对出口造成的严峻挑战,中国必须实施贸易低碳化战略,加快转型步伐。     

EVIDENCE ON THE IMPACT OF TARIFF REDUCTIONS ON EMPLOYMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW

This paper analyses the evidence on the impact of tariff reductions on employment in developing countries. We carry out a systematic review of the existing empirical literature, and include both, ex post econometric evidence and ex ante Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) simulation studies. The synthesis of results suggests that the effects of tariff reductions on employment are country and trade policy specific. When looking across higher quality econometric studies that control for the endogeneity of tariffs, only a couple of studies have statistically significant results, and these suggest that employment is likely to decrease slightly in the short run following trade liberalization. This is consistent with the notion that there are winners and losers from trade policy reform. These results are in contrast with the CGE findings, which by design incorporate projections of the medium‐run economy‐wide knock‐on effects suggested by economic theory. The synthesis of CGE studies suggests non‐negative effects of trade liberalization on aggregate employment and moderate inter‐sectoral labour reallocation effects.     

Impact of trade liberalization on firm's labour demand by skill: The case of Tunisian manufacturing

This paper investigates the impact of the trade liberalization process in Tunisia on employment by distinguishing different skills and different types of firms using micro level data covering the period of 1983–1994. There is considerable disagreement among analysts on the impact of recent trade reforms upon labour. Our contribution to these debates in this paper is essentially an empirical issue. The analysis of a Tunisian firm's data may be viewed as an attempt to apprehend how employment in Tunisia, a developing country, adjusted to the trade reforms. Using micro-level detail on individual firms, we are able to trace the relationship between changes in trade policies and manufacturing employment at firm level and by skill. Although trade reforms are generally implemented at the sector level, their effects may vary significantly across firm characteristics such as output orientation. We measure the effects of trade policy on employment according to different types of firms. We also associate changes in employment directly with a measure of change in trade protection, rather than linking them to changes in imports and exports which would be more common. The results suggest that the impact of trade liberalization on labour demand depends on a firm's characteristics. In particular, the estimates obtained suggest that trade liberalization has beneficial effects on employment for exporting-firms. Conversely, trade liberalization has negative and disciplinary effects on employment for domestically oriented firms. The reduction in tariff levels conducted in this first phase of liberalization in Tunisia seems to have had effects with different intensity on unskilled labour and on skilled labour; this justifies the examination of these two skills.     

The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Micro Enterprises: Do Banks Matter? Evidence from Indian Manufacturing

This paper looks at the impact of trade liberalization on micro enterprises with differential access to banks. I use Indian data on rural micro enterprises employing less than ten workers in the manufacturing sector to find that trade liberalization, measured by a fall in the tariff, is associated with a larger increase or a smaller decrease in output, capital–labour ratio and labour productivity in districts with a larger number of bank branches per capita. Evidence is consistent with strong complementarities between trade liberalization effects, and the economic dynamism and access to financial intermediation associated with greater bank presence in the enterprise's location. The study underscores that trade liberalization can be beneficial to micro entrepreneurs under certain conditions and emphasizes reallocation resulting from trade liberalization. The study hence highlights the role for development policy in exploiting gains from trade.     

A NOTE ON THE EFFECT OF TRADE LIBERALIZATION VIA OPTIMAL POLLUTION TAX

This paper reexamines the environmental consequences of trade liberalization in a general equilibrium model of a small open economy facing trade and environmental distortions. I show that, under certain conditions, trade liberalization achieved by reducing trade barriers increases the amount of pollution through change in the optimal pollution tax. This result is worthy of consideration in regard to countries that pursue trade liberalization, and the subsequent environmental cleanup.     

Sino-Indian Liberalization: The Role of Trade and Foreign Investment

Two major factors account for a country’s growing integration with the global economy: trade and foreign investment; expansion of exports, and foreign direct investment (FDI). Growth of exports became a dominant source of industrial growth during the 1980s in most developing countries (see Helleiner, 1995). Most of these countries including China and India, have replaced the old import-substitution policy by an export promotion strategy. Both domestic and international factors played an important role in the shift of national policies to repay debts. The process of globalization already underway necessitated export orientation for improving technology, management practices, marketing and international competitiveness. This paper aims at exploring the contributions of exports and FDI to growth and economic liberalization in China and lndia. The first section briefly reviews similarities and differences in the two economies. The second section deals with growth, composition and direction of foreign trade. The third section examines the role of FDI, and its sources and composition by sector, industry, and by overseas ethnic Chinese and Indians. Trade and FDI linkages are examined in the fourth section which also contains a brief case study of Guangdong (China). This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.