General‐to‐Specific Model Selection Procedures for Structural Vector Autoregressions*

Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models have emerged as a dominant research strategy in empirical macroeconomics, but suffer from the large number of parameters employed and the resulting estimation uncertainty associated with their impulse responses. In this paper, we propose general‐to‐specific (Gets) model selection procedures to overcome these limitations. It is shown that single‐equation procedures are generally efficient for the reduction of recursive SVAR models. The small‐sample properties of the proposed reduction procedure (as implemented using PcGets) are evaluated in a realistic Monte Carlo experiment. The impulse responses generated by the selected SVAR are found to be more precise and accurate than those of the unrestricted VAR. The proposed reduction strategy is then applied to the US monetary system considered by Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans (Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 78, pp. 16–34, 1996) . The results are consistent with the Monte Carlo and question the validity of the impulse responses generated by the full system.     

Organization‐Based Self‐Esteem,Psychological Contract Fulfillment,and Perceived Employment Opportunities: A Test of Self‐Regulatory Theory

This study addresses organization‐based self‐esteem (OBSE) development by examining the role of perceptions of employer psychological contract fulfillment, and the self‐regulatory processes by which OBSE evolves and produces its effects. Self‐regulatory theory helps reveal why psychological contract fulfillment relates to OBSE, how OBSE mediates its effects, and the ways in which OBSE might interact with perceived employment opportunities to affect job satisfaction, performance, and turnover intentions. The results show that OBSE is related to and mediates the relationships between relational contract fulfillment and employee job satisfaction and performance, but OBSE is not related to transactional contract fulfillment. Nor does OBSE mediate the relationships between transactional contract fulfillment and the dependent variables. Perceived employment opportunities moderate the relationships of OBSE with job satisfaction and turnover intentions. This study concludes with recommendations of ways managers can increase their sensitivity to the types of messages they communicate to employees. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The psychological contract and the transition from office‐based to home‐based work

This article explores how the transition from office‐based to home‐based work impacts upon the psychological contracts of employees involved. Adopting a qualitative case study approach, utilising a short‐term longitudinal design, the setting is a local authority which implemented a 3‐month home‐working pilot scheme. Using the psychological contract as an analytical framework it is shown how the implementation of the changes impacts upon the psychological contracts not only in the workplace but also in the home. In both the arenas of work and the home, obligations are surfaced (and sometimes renegotiated) and boundaries are redrawn. The relationship with the employer becomes increasingly transactional, enabling participants to redefine the status of work in relation to their other priorities. Whilst homeworkers exhibit an increased commitment to the mode of work and become more productive for their employer, they also exhibit a more transactional orientation to work, threatening to leave if homeworking is withdrawn. We explore the methodological and theoretical implications of our findings drawing attention to the analytical potential of the psychological contract for generating more critical insights.     

Front‐line managers as agents in the HRM‐performance causal chain: theory,analysis and evidence

Research on the link between HRM and organisational performance has neglected the role of front‐line managers, yet it is these managers who are increasingly charged with the implementation of many HR practices. Using an employee survey in 12 ‘excellent’ companies we explore the extent to which employee commitment towards their employer and their job are influenced by the quality of leadership behaviour and by satisfaction with HR practices. Both have a strong effect on employee attitudes. The article concludes with a case study of a planned effort to improve front‐line managers' skills in people management.     

Examining the link between flexible working arrangement bundles and employee work effort

Empirical evidence regarding the link between flexible working arrangements (FWAs) and work effort is mixed, with the literature showing that some practices are linked to more while others to less work effort. In this study, we argue that this discrepancy may be due to the existence of different types of FWA bundles with potentially distinct effects on work effort. Using Understanding Society, a British national survey, and building on theories related to social exchange, the study examines the link between employee‐centered and employer‐centered FWA bundles, and work effort. This study further tests whether these relationships differ depending on employees' family responsibilities. Based on a sample of 13,834 employees, results show that both employee‐centered and employer‐centered FWA bundles are negatively associated with work effort, and findings for the latter bundle are more pronounced. These negative associations are somewhat stronger for employees with fewer family responsibilities. We infer that employees appear to use employee‐centered FWAs for their intended purpose, that is, to balance life and job demands, while they might perceive employer‐centered FWAs as unfair, resulting in less work effort in an attempt to restore fairness.     

Performance Pay,Union Bargaining and Within‐Firm Wage Inequality*

Theory predicts that performance pay boosts wage dispersion. Workers retain a share of individual productivity shocks and high‐efficiency workers receive compensation for greater effort. Collective bargaining can mitigate the effect of performance pay on wage inequality by easing monitoring of common effort standards and group‐based pay schemes. Analyses of longitudinal employer–employee data show that the introduction of performance‐related pay raises wage inequality in non‐union firms, but not in firms with high union density. Although performance‐related pay appears to be on the rise, the overall impact on wage dispersion is likely to be small, particularly in European countries with influential unions.     

Pharmaceutical Regulation and Innovative Performance: A Decision‐theoretic Model

In this paper, we develop a model of the impact of the drug approval process on the terms of a contract between a pharmaceutical company that requires the services of a contract research organization (CRO) to carry out testing of new drug molecules. Results show that if the equilibrium contract includes a variable payment (royalty), the more effort the CRO gives to create a more accurate result, the more strict the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval process. We also find that given the royalty shares in the contract, if the FDA demands more accuracy in results as a condition of approval, then the CRO will generate more accurate results from late‐stage tests. However, greater FDA stringency in the approval process benefits pharmaceutical companies because the greater is FDA stringency, the less is the risk of a drug recall. We also find that in order to employ a CRO in the testing process, the pharmaceutical company's prior probability that the drug is of high quality must be very high. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating,Comparing, Monitoring,and Improving Representativeness of Survey Response Through R‐Indicators and Partial R‐Indicators

Non‐response is a common source of error in many surveys. Because surveys often are costly instruments, quality‐cost trade‐offs play a continuing role in the design and analysis of surveys. The advances of telephone, computers, and Internet all had and still have considerable impact on the design of surveys. Recently, a strong focus on methods for survey data collection monitoring and tailoring has emerged as a new paradigm to efficiently reduce non‐response error. Paradata and adaptive survey designs are key words in these new developments. Prerequisites to evaluating, comparing, monitoring, and improving quality of survey response are a conceptual framework for representative survey response, indicators to measure deviations thereof, and indicators to identify subpopulations that need increased effort. In this paper, we present an overview of representativeness indicators or R‐indicators that are fit for these purposes. We give several examples and provide guidelines for their use in practice.     

Effects of the ‘principle of non‐discrimination’ on temporary agency work: compensation and working conditions of temporary agency workers in 15 European countries

This article examines, with reference to Europe (EU‐15), whether temporary agency workers experience less favourable working conditions and compensation than employees with a standard employment contract. Furthermore, it analyses whether the same differences exist in European countries with and without the principle of non‐discrimination in force. The results show that discrimination of temporary workers persists even when we control for other factors. Second, in countries with the principle of non‐discrimination in force, the discrimination is higher with respect to employer‐provided training.     

From fixed to state‐dependent duration in public‐private partnerships

A government delegates a build‐operate‐transfer project to a private firm. In the contracting stage, the operating cost is unknown. The firm can increase the likelihood of facing a low cost, rather than a high cost, by exerting costly effort when building the infrastructure. Once the infrastructure is in place, the firm learns the true cost and begins to operate. Under limited commitment, either partner may renege on the contract at any moment thereafter. The novelty with respect to incentive theory is that the contractual length is stipulated in the contract in such a way that it depends on the cost realization. Our main result is that, if the break‐up of the partnership is sufficiently costly to the government and/or adverse selection and moral hazard are sufficiently severe, then the efficient contract is not robust to renegotiation unless it has a longer duration when the realized cost is low. This result is at odds with the literature on flexible‐term contracts, which recommends a longer duration when operating conditions are unfavorable, yet, with regard to a different setting, where the demand is uncertain and the cash‐flow is exogenous.     

MULTIPLE TESTING AND HETEROGENEOUS TREATMENT EFFECTS: RE‐EVALUATING THE EFFECT OF PROGRESA ON SCHOOL ENROLLMENT

The effect of a program or treatment may vary according to observed characteristics. In such a setting, it may not only be of interest to determine whether the program or treatment has an effect on some sub‐population defined by these observed characteristics, but also to determine for which sub‐populations, if any, there is an effect. This paper treats this problem as a multiple testing problem in which each null hypothesis in the family of null hypotheses specifies whether the program has an effect on the outcome of interest for a particular sub‐population. We develop our methodology in the context of PROGRESA, a large‐scale poverty‐reduction program in Mexico. In our application, the outcome of interest is the school enrollment rate and the sub‐populations are defined by gender and highest grade completed. Under weak assumptions, the testing procedure we construct controls the familywise error rate—the probability of even one false rejection—in finite samples. Similar to earlier studies, we find that the program has a significant effect on the school enrollment rate, but only for a much smaller number of sub‐populations when compared to results that do not adjust for multiple testing. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling employment durations of NHL head coaches: turnover and post‐succession performance

Match‐level National Hockey League (NHL) data are used to identify factors likely to trigger the departure of a team's coach, and to measure the short‐term impact on subsequent match results. There is a statistically significant link between individual match results and the job departure hazard for up to 15 games prior to the point of departure. The hazard depends on the team's current standing within its conference relative to a pre‐season forecast, recent performance in the Stanley Cup, the coach's age and previous employment with his present team as a player. After controlling for a mean‐reversion effect, teams that changed their coach within‐season are found to perform worse subsequently than those that did not, but the negative effect is short‐lived. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bayesian Estimation of Willingness‐to‐pay Where Respondents Mis‐report Their Preferences*

We introduce a modified conditional logit model that takes account of uncertainty associated with mis‐reporting in revealed preference experiments estimating willingness‐to‐pay (WTP). Like Hausman et al. [Journal of Econometrics (1988) Vol. 87, pp. 239–269], our model captures the extent and direction of uncertainty by respondents. Using a Bayesian methodology, we apply our model to a choice modelling (CM) data set examining UK consumer preferences for non‐pesticide food. We compare the results of our model with the Hausman model. WTP estimates are produced for different groups of consumers and we find that modified estimates of WTP, that take account of mis‐reporting, are substantially revised downwards. We find a significant proportion of respondents mis‐reporting in favour of the non‐pesticide option. Finally, with this data set, Bayes factors suggest that our model is preferred to the Hausman model.     

Strategic shirking in competitive labor markets: A general model of multi‐task promotion tournaments with employer learning

In a multitask, market‐based promotion tournament model, under different environments concerning employer learning about worker ability, it is shown that: (a) asymmetric learning in multitask jobs is a necessary condition for “strategic shirking” (i.e., underperforming on certain tasks to increase the promotion probability); (b) when learning becomes increasingly symmetric on one task, the effort allocated to that task could increase or decrease, but effort on the other task increases; (c) strategic shirking does not occur in equilibrium in single‐task models; and (d) promotions signal worker ability even when there is symmetric learning on one task, if learning is asymmetric on another.     

Layoff victim's employment relationship with a new employer in Korea: effects of unmet tenure expectations on trust and psychological contract

Existing studies of psychological contract have largely focused on the effects of contract breach on employees' attitudes and the contract itself involving the same employer. Given that both workforce mobility and downsizing activities are increasing, it is important to understand how individuals' past employment experiences shape their relationships with their employers. The present study focuses on the effect of prior layoffs on relationships with new employers. We posit that furloughed workers experience layoff as a breach of the psychological contract of job security they have entered into with their employer. Longitudinal data collected from individuals who were re-employed following a layoff revealed that unmet tenure expectations in an employment relationship result in reduced trust in a new employer, which in turn negatively impacts the quality of psychological contracts with the new employer. The results also show that the relationship between unmet tenure expectations and trust was moderated by individual attributions regarding the cause of the layoff. The present findings suggest that the negative impact of contract breach experienced with one organization may carry over to subsequent organizational contexts.     

Outcomes of Meaningful Work: A Meta‐Analysis

Using job characteristics theory as a framework, we calculated meta‐analytic effect sizes between meaningful work and various outcomes and tested a mediated model of meaningful work predicting proximal and distal outcomes with meta‐analytic structural equation modelling (MASEM). From 44 articles (N = 23,144), we found that meaningful work had large correlations (r = 0.70+) with work engagement, commitment, and job satisfaction; moderate to large correlations (r = 0.44 to ?0.49) with life satisfaction, life meaning, general health, and withdrawal intentions; and small to moderate correlations (r = ?0.19 to 0.33) with organizational citizenship behaviours, self‐rated job performance, and negative affect. The best MASEM fitting model was meaningful work predicting work engagement, commitment, and job satisfaction and these variables subsequently predicting self‐rated performance, organizational citizenship behaviours, and withdrawal intentions. This meta‐analysis provides estimated effect sizes between meaningful work and its outcomes and reveals how meaningful work relates directly and indirectly to key outcomes.     

Wage‐setting Decisions on Newly Hired Employees: Survey Evidence from Colombian Firms

This paper uses a survey on wage formation applied to 1305 Colombian firms to study wage‐setting decisions of newly hired employees. The survey indicates that wages of the newly hired are based mainly on a predefined wage structure. This may help to explain, in part, the presence of downward nominal wage rigidities in the Colombian formal labour market, since firms are unwilling to differentiate the pay of new hires from the wages of existing workers. Using multinomial logit models, we find that firm size and the share of temporary workers increase the relative risk of using a predefined internal structure over bargaining between employee and employer when setting the wages of the newly hired employees. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Diagnostic Tests of Cross‐section Independence for Limited Dependent Variable Panel Data Models*

This article considers the problem of testing for cross‐section independence in limited dependent variable panel data models. It derives a Lagrangian multiplier (LM) test and shows that in terms of generalized residuals of Gourieroux et al. (1987) it reduces to the LM test of Breusch and Pagan (1980) . Because of the tendency of the LM test to over‐reject in panels with large N (cross‐section dimension), we also consider the application of the cross‐section dependence test (CD) proposed by Pesaran (2004) . In Monte Carlo experiments it emerges that for most combinations of N and T the CD test is correctly sized, whereas the validity of the LM test requires T (time series dimension) to be quite large relative to N. We illustrate the cross‐sectional independence tests with an application to a probit panel data model of roll‐call votes in the US Congress and find that the votes display a significant degree of cross‐section dependence.     

Inducements,contributions, and fulfillment in new employee psychological contracts

This longitudinal study of newly hired Chinese college graduates (N = 143) investigates the effects of contract fulfillment, employee reports of company inducements (organizational support and job rewards), and supervisory reports of individual contributions (job performance and extra‐role citizenship behavior) upon changes in the graduates' psychological contracts. Three survey waves were administered a year apart, starting with the recruits' job offer acceptance. Analyses revealed that employee fulfillment and perceived contributions predicted particular changes in employer psychological contract obligations, whereas employer fulfillment and perceived inducements predicted changes in employee obligations. The effects of inducements on employee obligation changes and contributions on employer obligation changes were mediated by their respective fulfillment measures. Changes in obligations were greater in the first year of employment than in the second. This study yields implications for managing newcomers and researching the initial phase of employment. ©2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.