Bayes sequential estimation for a particular exponential family of distributions under LINEX loss

The problem of sequentially estimating an unknown distribution parameter of a particular exponential family of distributions is considered under LINEX loss function for estimation error and a cost c > 0 for each of an i.i.d. sequence of potential observations X ₁, X ₂, . . . A Bayesian approach is adopted and conjugate prior distributions are assumed. Asymptotically pointwise optimal and asymptotically optimal procedures are derived.     

Estimation of Poverty Transition Matrices with Noisy Data

This paper investigates measurement error biases in estimated poverty transition matrices. We compare transition matrices based on survey expenditure data to transition matrices based on measurement‐error‐free simulated expenditure. The simulation model uses estimates that correct for measurement error in expenditure. We find that time‐varying measurement error in expenditure data magnifies economic mobility. Roughly 45% of households initially in poverty at time t ? 1 are found to be out of poverty at time t using data from the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study. When measurement error is removed, this drops to between 26 and 31% of households initially in poverty. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A score-test on measurement errors in rating transition times

We model credit rating histories as continuous-time discrete-state Markov processes. Infrequent monitoring of the debtors’ solvency will result in erroneous observations of the rating transition times, and consequently in biased parameter estimates. We develop a score test against such measurement errors in the transition data that is independent of the error distribution. We derive the asymptotic χ²${\chi }^2$-distribution for the test statistic under the null by stochastic limit theory. The test is applied to an international corporate portfolio, while accounting for economic and debtor-specific covariates. The test indicates that measurement errors in the transition times are a real problem in practice.     

Optimal stopping rules for multinomial observations

Many times sampling from a known or an unknown population results in observations that are integers and there is a payoff which depends on the observations. Thus, the experimenter is tempted to continue sampling in the hope of increasing his payoff. On the other hand, usually each observation costs a fixed amount and thus the experimenter also is reluctant to continue sampling because each additional sample increases the total sampling cost. The problem is to determine a place to stop making observations such that thenet payoff is a maximum. This paper considers stopping rules which will maximize the net payoff to the experimenter when the observations come from a multinomial population.     

Optimal risk rate in a functional inverse problem

In this note, we will consider the problem of recovering an unknown input function when the output function is observed in its entirety, blurred with functional error. An estimator is constructed whose risk converges at an optimal rate. In this functional model, convergence rates of order 1/n (n is the sample size) are possible, provided that the error distribution is sufficiently concentrated so as to compensate for the ill‐posedness of the inverse of the model operator.     

FEASIBLE CROSS-VALIDATORY MODEL SELECTION FOR GENERAL STATIONARY PROCESSES

Cross-validation is a method used to estimate the expected prediction error of a model. Such estimates may be of interest in themselves, but their use for model selection is more common. Unfortunately, cross-validation is viewed as being computationally expensive in many situations. In this paper it is shown that the h-block cross-validation function for least-squares based estimators can be expressed in a form which can enormously impact on the amount of calculation required. The standard approach is of O(T²) where T denotes the sample size, while the proposed approach is of O(T) and yields identical numerical results. The proposed approach has widespread potential application ranging from the estimation of expected prediction error to least squares-based model specification to the selection of the series order for non-parametric series estimation. The technique is valid for general stationary observations. Simulation results and applications are considered. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Minimax estimators for a bounded location parameter

Summary Recently, Bischoff and Fieger (1992) considered the classical problem of estimating a bounded normal mean when the loss is thep-th power of the error. They proved that forp>-2 a two point prior is least favourable in case the parameter interval is small enough. In the present paper it is shown that this result remains valid forp>1. Moreover, the normal family is generalized to location parameter families. Finally, it is proved that no two point prior is least favourable for absolute error loss, i.e., forp=1.     

Sources of error in economic time series

This paper classifies and measures the major sources of error, uncertainty or noise in economic data, regarding such data as observations from stationary and non-stationary time series. Uncertainties due to seasonal adjustment, sampling, and transitory variation are studied, both as observable error (eventually removed from preliminary figures when they are revised) and as unobservable error (imbedded in both preliminary and final data). Correlations between different error sources are derived. The results are illustrated with U.S. money supply series.     

The Asian crisis and the implications for human resource management in Vietnam

Vietnam has experienced substantial economic growth since the mid-1980s when economic reform (doi moi) started. However, the Asian crisis had some negative impacts on the Vietnamese economy. Both the external environment and internal competition added more pressure on companies to speed up organizational reform. Transforming the old personnel management into new flexible human resource management system is one of the central reform agendas among companies in order to survive the market competition. This research analyses the nature of the changes in the area of human resource management under the influence of market-oriented reform that puts emphases on flexibility and competitiveness in the new millennium.     

Highly accurate likelihood analysis for the seemingly unrelated regression problem

The linear and nonlinear seemingly unrelated regression problem with general error distribution is analyzed using recent likelihood theory that arguably provides the definitive distribution for assessing a scalar parameter; this involves implicit but well defined conditioning and marginalization for determining intrinsic measures of departure. Highly accurate p-values are obtained for the key difference between two regression coefficients of central interest. The p-value gives the statistical position of the data with respect to the key parameter. The theory and the results indicate that this methodology provides substantial improvement on first-order likelihood procedures, both in distributional accuracy, and in precise measurement of the key parameter.     

Does Monetary Aid Catalyse New Business Creation? Analysing the Impact of Global Aid Flows on Formal and Informal Entrepreneurship

Official development aid – monetary transfers to developing countries to promote social and economic development – reached more than $140 billion in 2016. However, traditional forms of government bilateral aid continue to decline, while private aid is rising. Nevertheless, the impact of this aid, including its potential to stimulate economic development through new business formation, remains uncertain. In this study, we examine the impact of three sources of monetary aid flows on formal and informal entrepreneurship. Drawing from the international political economy literature we argue that bilateral aid and private aid are associated with higher levels of informal entrepreneurship, while multilateral aid is accompanied by lower levels. Moreover, we show that bilateral and private aid are linked with lower levels of formal entrepreneurship, while multilateral aid has no impact. The analyses of a panel of 313 observations from 49 countries provide robust support for these arguments.     

Public Choice and Land Tax Fairness

Land value taxation (LVT) as desirable U.S. tax policy was brilliantly set forth by the American publicist and economist, Henry George, in the book Progress and Poverty, published 100 years ago. Economists concerned with state and local taxation have generally accepted the basic elements of George's analysis. The absence of substantial LVT legislation despite the economic efficiency and ethical strengths of land as a tax base arises from two sources. First, the public perception of land has not separated land's attributes from those possessed by other property. Second, land ownership data have not been gathered and publicized. Groups favoring taxes that promote economic justice and efficiency should support efforts to develop land ownership data. It would be an important first step toward fully utilizing the potential of LVT.     

A continuous-time sequential testing problem

A Bayesian testing problem for a simple hypothesis against a simple alternative is considered. However the observations on which the test is based are not immediately available, but occur atn i.i.d. random times. Assuming linear cost of time until a decision the task is to construct and to characterize an optimal stopping strategy for a time-sequential testing problem and to compute the Bayes risk. The paper provides a solution to this problem.     

Gulf War Reparations

Abstract . On February 27, 1991, the government of Iraq accepted United Nations Security Council Resolution 674, a measure requiring it to pay reparations to the victims of its aggression in the Gulf Crisis of 1990–1991. The economic problems and consequences that may result as Iraq faces the provisions of Resolution 674 are discussed. This latest example of international economic compensation is placed in the context of the transfer problem and the economic debate engendered by the experience of Germany in dealing with its reparations burden after World War I. Lessons gained from this historical example of reparations are then applied to the case of Iraq, one of the world's major petroleum producers, a country that must rely on oil exports to make its reparations payments.     

Christian economics at the origin

The New Testament contained copious information on how Jesus and the Apostles managed their households and personal finances. Christian economics originated in references made by Jesus, Paul, and Peter to oikonomia. Peter in Jerusalem introduced the incipient practice of Christian oikonomia through dispensing welfare, and Christians in Rome unfolded oikonomia when they acquired the catacombs. The funding and owning of built structures transformed Christianity from a private collective to a corporate institution. Constantine the Great marked this transition when he designated the recipient of a substantial endowment as the Corpus Christianorum. A trajectory that began in New Testament oikonomia concluded when Christianity had become an institutional actor in the economic sphere.     

Raising the bar (8)

This editorial summarizes the papers published in issue 13(3) so as to raise the bar in applied spatial economic research and highlight new trends. The first paper challenges the home market hypothesis that large countries host more firms relative to their size than small countries by considering the lobbying activities of multinational firms. The second paper analyzes the implications of a spatial weight matrix used to estimate a spatial econometric model that depends on an endogenous economic variable. By adding a spatial context, the third paper provides a novel contribution to the literature on international norms in de facto measures of human rights performance. The fourth paper examines the determinants of accepting informal work in Poland. The fifth paper deals with non-stationarity and cointegration in a dynamic spatial econometric panel data model when the number of observations in the time – rather than in the cross-sectional– domain tends to infinity.     

A Bayesian Model for Estimating Census Undercount,Taking Emigration Data from Foreign Censuses*

The new method of measuring net undercount in a census of population is a variant of demographic analysis and is founded in the belief that the most reliable counts of people are the counts of births and deaths. It has been applied to the 1991 census of England and Wales (E&W). The method has two distinctive features. The first is that it bases its estimates of numbers of emigrants on figures of persons born here and recorded as residents in the 1990–91 censuses of other countries. The corresponding data on immigrants are taken from our own census. The method does not therefore require the data on migratory flows that are an essential component of conventional demographic analysis. The second feature is the Bayesian approach in which (1) each of 30 uncertain elements in the calculations is given an a priori error distribution and (2) three empirical constraints are imposed on the sex-age profile of percentage net undercount. This, in conjunction with a Monte Carlo process, generates an error distribution for net undercount. These merits of the method are offset by the demerit that the calculations must await results from the censuses of the other countries in which substantial numbers of our emigrants reside.     

Politico-economic transition

Political and economic transitions of non-market economies often go hand in hand. We propose an economic theory of this transition process, which highlights how the success of such a transition depends upon the policies chosen in the new democratic environment. In this paper, economic success is characterized by the continual adoption of new technology (and economic growth), which requires costly human capital investment. The political choice is whether to allow the adoption of new technology. As a non-market economy begins its transition, agents with human capital specific to a particular technology find it in their interest to vote against continued innovation. As such, the transition to a market economy can be choked off. Our theory has the following features: (i) an economic transition is associated with a substantial drop in output; (ii) it is in the interest of large groups in the population to resist laissez–faire, as factor payments equal marginal products in the post–reform economy; (iii) although the joint move to democracy and a market economy does make people better off, it is insufficient for the transition to be successful, as the number of agents with a vested interest against continued innovation grows; and (iv) a temporary\/ restriction on voting rights which ensures a laissez-faire regime is sufficient to produce long-run\/ prosperity. This restriction may not be only one capable of overcoming the anti–innovation interests. Other mechanisms such as supermajority rules on policy changes may also guarantee laissez–faire.     

CEO Retirement,Corporate Governance and Conditional Accounting Conservatism

Based on 16,604 observations between 1994 and 2006, this study revisits the ‘horizon problem’ by examining how CEO retirement affects conditional accounting conservatism. We hypothesize and find that firms become less conservative in their financial reporting before the retirement of their CEOs, and that strong corporate governance mitigates the effect of CEO retirement. The literature concerning the horizon problem has suggested that CEOs manipulate earnings to boost short-term performance before they leave their companies (Dechow, P. M., & Sloan, R. G. (1991). Executive incentives and the horizon problem: An empirical investigation. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 14(1), 51–89; Smith, C. W., & Watts, R. L. (1982). Incentive and tax effects of executive compensation plans. Australian Journal of Management, 7(2), 139–157), but the evidence is mixed. By examining conditional conservatism, we avoid some of the methodological difficulties that confront researchers when examining either real or accrual earnings management. Ours is the first study to provide evidence on how the horizon problem shapes conditional accounting conservatism.