Training and organisational innovations in a local industrial system: empirical evidence from Emilia‐Romagna1

The article studies the driving forces of firm training using a survey‐based dataset of manufacturing firms in the Emilia‐Romagna region, Northern Italy. The data are derived from the responses to a structured questionnaire administered in 2002 to the management of a representative sample of firms with more than 50 employees in the highly industrialised province of Reggio Emilia. Firms’ training choices are analysed using a theoretical/conceptual framework based on the notion of complementarity among productive factors. Training is provided as long as it favours the establishment of complementary relationships among the skills it develops and other inputs. The main factors associated with training include structural characteristics, HRM practices, workforce features, labour management and performance of the firm. Training activities emerge as being positively associated with organisational practices that affect the whole firm: workforce skill level, firm size, firm productivity and labour flexibility. The role of HRM practices in driving training is brought into question. These are key issues for the current debate on the development of local systems in the European and Italian context. The high and joint relevance of structural variables and labour demand‐related factors shows that regional industrial policies must support labour policies within an integrated policy effort aimed at increasing potential firm productivity.     

In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy in the Euro Area

This paper applies the DSGE‐VAR methodology to assess the size of fiscal multipliers in the data and the relative contributions of two transmission mechanisms of government spending shocks, namely hand‐to‐mouth consumers and Edgeworth complementarity. Econometric experiments show that a DSGE model with Edgeworth complementarity is a better representation of the transmission mechanism of fiscal policy as it yields dynamic responses close to those obtained with the flexible DSGE‐VAR model (i.e. an impact output multiplier larger than one and a crowding‐in of private consumption). The estimated share of hand‐to‐mouth consumers is too small to replicate the positive response of private consumption. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The ‘Singapore scenario’: the uncertain prospects for labour standards in post‐Brexit Britain

The Conservative government of Theresa May asserted that labour standards would be preserved post‐Brexit. The Labour Party also privileged labour standards in its anti‐austerity programme. The threat remains however that Brexit will provide an incentive to erode labour standards in a global ‘race to the bottom’ in a ‘Singapore scenario’.     

Ethnic group size,linguistic isolation,and immigrant entrepreneurship in the USA

Using a sample of immigrant men in US census data from the early and late 1900s and available in the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS), this study explores: (1) whether immigrant entrepreneurship is positively affected by ethnic group size and linguistic isolation; (2) how sensitive these relationships are to English-language proficiency; and (3) if these relationships have remained stable over time. The empirical results indicate that the size of the local ethnic population does not enhance immigrant self-employment for either English-proficient or limited-English-proficient (LEP) men in the USA. In addition, while linguistic isolation in the local labour pool seems to promote entrepreneurship among English-fluent immigrants in certain cases, it appears to hinder business formation among the LEP. Finally, comparing the results across time-periods is consistent with the premise that rising xenophobia pushes a disproportionate share of the LEP into self-employment.     

Does aging influence structural change? Evidence from panel data

Our study represents a first attempt to single out the effects of aging on the entire structure of the economy that is approximated by employment shares in different sectors. We find that even after controlling for the effects of other relevant factors - e.g., income per capita, share of trade in GDP, government consumption share in GDP, population size - aging does have a statistically significant differentiated impact on the employment shares. In particular, we find that an increase in aging exerts a statistically significant adverse effect on the employment shares in agriculture, manufacturing, construction, and mining and quarrying industries. At the same time, an increasing share of the elderly (decreasing share of the youth) in society positively affects employment shares in community, social, and personal services as well as in the financial sector.     

Implementation of Sustainability Management and Company Size: A Knowledge‐Based View

Implementing corporate sustainability strategies requires knowledge and application of sustainability management tools. While much progress has been made in developing such tools in both small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) and large companies, the literature claims company size positively affects application. However, the role of knowledge as a mediating factor has not yet been investigated. Using the knowledge‐based view as a theoretical underpinning, this paper draws on empirical survey data from SMEs and large companies in Germany. It analyzes how company size affects the degree of knowledge and application of sustainability management tools. Even though the results reaffirm that SMEs know and apply significantly less tools, company size does not influence the share of tools applied once they are known. Thus, knowledge is identified as a key difference between SMEs and large companies as well as an important mediator to promote sustainability management. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

Forecasting Macroeconomic Labour Market Flows: What Can We Learn from Micro‐level Analysis?

Forecasting labour market flows is important for budgeting and decision‐making in government departments and public administration. Macroeconomic forecasts are normally obtained from time series data. In this article, we follow another approach that uses individual‐level statistical analysis to predict the number of exits out of unemployment insurance claims. We present a comparative study of econometric, actuarial and statistical methodologies that base on different data structures. The results with records of the German unemployment insurance suggest that prediction based on individual‐level statistical duration analysis constitutes an interesting alternative to aggregate data‐based forecasting. In particular, forecasts of up to six months ahead are surprisingly precise and are found to be more precise than considered time series forecasts.     

Market value,market share,and mergers: Evidence from a panel of U.S. firms

Improving shareholder value has often been cited as a merger determinant. Because mergers create larger firms and less competition, they may increase shareholder value through higher market share and stock‐market value. We investigate merger impacts on firms' stock‐market value and market share. We construct panel data from 4 different data sources on public merging and non‐merging U.S. manufacturing firms for 1980–2003. Instrumental variables and factors such as R&D, patents, and citations control for endogeneity. We find that mergers are positively correlated with stock‐market value and market share.     

Impact of EU exit on our UK industry forecasts

• We have lowered our forecast for UK economic growth following the vote to leave the EU on 23 June. GDP growth is now forecast at 1.1% in 2017 and 1.4% in 2018, and the medium‐term outlook has also been nudged down. We have also lowered our forecast for all of the main industrial sectors, with the biggest reductions in the long‐term forecasts for construction and manufacturing, although the weak pound could provide some short‐term boost to the latter.
• Our baseline forecast assumes that the government triggers Article 50 by the end of this year and that the UK leaves the EU by end‐2018. We assume that the government draws a red line under the freedom of movement and thus loses access to the single market. Trade relations revert to WTO rules.
• A number of factors determine the relative impact on each sector. First, in the short term, heightened uncertainty will hit business confidence, causing firms to delay capital spending. Second, less favourable trade relations with the EU could see export‐oriented sectors migrate production away from the UK. Finally, restrictions on migration will reduce the potential size of the labour force.
• Consequently, investment‐oriented sectors such as construction and machinery have seen some of the largest downgrades. Moreover, transport equipment is heavily exported to Europe, so increased trade barriers could see some production move out of the UK. Meanwhile, labour shortages could weaken growth prospects in labour‐dependent sectors. In addition, the vote has created uncertainties around the long‐term viability of London as Europe's major financial centre.
• The outlook for more consumer‐focused sectors is less downbeat, although an uptick in inflation may erode household purchasing power in the near‐term, and the multipliers from lower economic activity are likely to permanently reduce household incomes in the long term relative to our last baseline

     

Shifting from Undersupply to Oversupply: Does NHS Workforce Planning Need a Paradigm Shift?

The National Health Service in England is currently halfway through the most austere decade in its history. Finding ways to improve health care efficiency is crucial to ensure the sustainability of the health system. While evidence of supply‐induced demand (SID) has often been used as an economic argument to restrict labour supply, in the UK the risks of SID may be much less than in health care systems with more deregulated entry into the market post‐qualification and with fee‐for‐service payment systems. This article focuses on the problem of staff shortages in nursing. We argue that, although an oversupply of some types of labour can add to cost pressures by increasing demand for health care services and that the cost of training staff is high, undersupply and poor labour planning lead to unintended consequences such as poor labour productivity. As a result there is a case for public policy to target an oversupply of nurses in the future. If government reforms to nurse funding help, they are to be welcomed.     

Do Smaller Classes Always Improve Students’ Long‐run Outcomes?

We exploit the strict class size rule in Norway and matched individual and school register information for 1982–2011 to estimate long‐run causal effects on income and educational attainment. Contrary to recent evidence from the US and Sweden, we do not find any significant average effect on long‐run outcomes of reduced class size. We further use the large register data set and quasi‐experimental strategy to estimate whether the class size effect depends on external conditions facing students and schools, such as teacher quality, extent of upper secondary school choice, school district size, local fiscal constraints and labour market conditions. Overall, we find that the class size effect does not depend on these factors measured at the school district level. The absence of class size effects on long‐run outcomes in Norway is consistent with earlier findings for short‐run outcomes, using comparable data and empirical strategies.     

Knowledge Spillovers,ICT and Productivity Growth

This paper looks at the channels through which intangible assets affect productivity growth. The econometric analysis exploits a new data set on intangible investment (INTAN‐Invest) in conjunction with EUKLEMS productivity estimates for 10 EU member states from 1998 to 2007. We find that (a) the output elasticity of intangible capital depends upon ICT intensity, consistent with complementarities between ICT and intangible capital; (b) non‐R&D intangible capital has a higher estimated output elasticity than its factor share, as does (c) an index of labour composition. The last two findings are consistent with growth spillovers from investments in knowledge‐based/intangible capital and skills.     

TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION AND EMPLOYMENT IN DERIVED LABOUR DEMAND MODELS: A HIERARCHICAL META‐REGRESSION ANALYSIS

The effect of technological innovation on employment is of major concern for workers and their unions, policy makers and academic researchers. We meta‐analyse 570 estimates from 35 primary studies that estimate a derived labour demand model. We contribute to existing attempts at evidence synthesis by addressing the risks of selection bias and that of data dependence in observational studies. Our findings indicate that: (i) hierarchical meta‐regression models are sufficiently versatile for addressing both selection bias and data dependence in observational data; (ii) innovation's effect on employment is positive but small and highly heterogeneous; (iii) only a small part of residual heterogeneity is explained by moderating factors; (iv) selection bias tends to reflect preference for upholding prevalent hypotheses on the employment effects of process and product innovations; (v) country‐specific effect‐size estimates are related to labour market and product market regulation in six OECD countries in a U‐shaped fashion; and (vi) OLS estimates reflect upward bias whereas those based on time‐differenced or within estimators reflect a downward bias. Our findings point out to a range of data quality and modelling issues that should be addressed in future research.     

What Drives Output Volatility? The Role of Demographics and Government Size Revisited

This paper studies the determinants of output volatility in a panel of 22 OECD countries. In contrast to the existing literature, we avoid ad hoc estimates of volatility based on rolling windows, and we account for possible non‐stationarity. Specifically, output volatility is modelled within an unobserved components model where the volatility series is the outcome of both macroeconomic determinants and a latent integrated process. A Bayesian model selection approach tests for the presence of the non‐stationary component. The results point to demographics and government size as important determinants of macroeconomic (in)stability. A larger share of prime‐age workers is associated with lower output volatility, while higher public expenditure increases volatility.     

Trade,technology and skills: Evidence from Turkish microdata

In this paper we report evidence on the relationship between trade openness, technology adoption and the relative demand for skilled labour in the Turkish manufacturing sector, using firm-level data over the period 1980–2001. In a dynamic panel data setting, using a unique database comprising data from 17,462 firms, we estimate an augmented cost share equation whereby the wage bill share of skilled workers in a given firm is related to international exposure and technology adoption.It emerges that R&D expenditures are positive and significantly related to skill upgrading. This result supports the skill-biased technological change argument in the case of a middle-income country such as Turkey.Moreover, the firm-level analysis reveals a positive impact of technological transfer from abroad, foreign ownership and exporting status on the demand for skills, highlighting the role of increasing international openness in fostering skill upgrading within firms.Our microdata also allow us to investigate the direct impact of import flows in shaping the relative demand for skills. The results show that those firms belonging to the sectors experiencing rapid increase in the share of inputs imported from industrialised countries also experience a higher increase in the labour cost share of skilled workers. This finding provides further support for the hypothesis that imports from industrialised countries imply a transfer of new technologies, in turn leading to a higher demand for skilled labour (the so-called skill-enhancing trade hypothesis).     

Directors' Pay and Turnover: An Application to a Sample of Large UK Firms

This paper examines the operation of the UK managerial labour market. We test the twin agency predictions that directors' pay is positively related to corporate performance and CEO turnover is negatively associated with firm profitability. We find that (i) the panel data econometric evidence reveals a significant and positive correlation between directors' pay, company performance and size, (ii) the CEO turnover model predicts a negative, and significant, association with pre-dated shareholder returns: the data is consistent with the view that CEOs are disciplined by the threat of dismissal, (iii) boardroom governance factors (e.g. proportion of non-executives and board size) are only of some importance in the CEO succession process.     

ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGE,SKILL FORMATION,HUMAN CAPITAL MEASUREMENT: EVIDENCE FROM ITALIAN MANUFACTURING FIRMS

Abstract This paper emphasizes the role of labour demand as a determinant of human capital formation. After a section in which the alternative conceptions on the functioning of labour markets are presented and different ways of measuring human capital are compared, an applied analysis is carried out in which we provide a labour‐demand‐oriented measure of human capital, as defined by the amount of specific skills firms generate through work‐based training (WBT) activities. By merging three rich firm‐level datasets, we estimate the impact of a set of variables supposed to affect both the propensity to invest in WBT and the intensity of training within the Italian manufacturing industry over the period 2001–2005. Special attention is devoted to the variables characterizing within‐firm organization of knowledge, organizational change and the formation of competence pipelines: among them, innovation, internationalization commitment, out‐sourcing and new hirings. The estimates show that the effect of innovation on WBT is higher when the introduction of new technologies is supported by organizational innovations. When looking at the nature of WBT, we investigate the different determinants of the firms' propensity to provide both in‐house and outside training. We measure training intensity in terms, respectively, of the number of provided training activities, private and total training costs and share of trainees.     

Double Bertrand tax competition: a fiscal game with governments acting as middlemen

In a common market with costless mobility of all factors regional governments can attract mobile firms by granting subsidies which they must finance out of wage taxes on mobile labour. Firms locate where subsidies are highest and workers settle where taxes are lowest, forcing government ‘in the splits’ (double Bertrand-type tax competition). Initially, there is unemployment in the economy. Regional governments then behave like middlemen in the labour market, and the fiscal game takes the form of competition among strategic intermediaries. Results from the theory of intermediation are applied to this framework. It is shown that government size may increase rather than decline in a fiscal competition, that industrial clustering may emerge from tax competition, and that tax competition may alleviate the unemployment problem.     

The Sorting of Female Careers after First Birth: A Competing Risks Analysis of Maternity Leave Duration

A number of contributions have found evidence that motherhood is a critical life event for women's employment careers. This study presents a detailed analysis for the duration of maternity leave in which young mothers can make a transition into different types of employment, unemployment as well as the next birth. We provide a comprehensive picture of the sorting mechanisms that lead to the differentiation of women's employment careers after birth. Our empirical evidence is derived from large‐linked administrative individual labour market data from Germany for a period of three decades. We obtain unprecedented insights into how women's skills, the quality of the previous job match, firm level characteristics, labour market conditions and leave legislation are related to the length of maternity duration. Expansionary leave policies, e.g. are found to be a key factor for the rising share of women who have their second child out of inactivity.     

Marshallian labour market pooling: Evidence from Italy

This paper employs a unique Italian data source to take a comprehensive approach to labour market pooling. It jointly considers many different aspects of the agglomeration — labour market relationship, including turnover, learning, matching, and hold up. It also considers labour market pooling from the perspective of both workers and firms and across a range of industries. Overall, the paper finds some support for theories of labour market pooling, but the support is weak. Specifically, there is a general positive relationship of turnover to local population density, which is consistent with theories of agglomeration and uncertainty. There is also evidence of on-the-job learning that is consistent with theories of labour pooling, labour poaching, and hold up. In addition, the paper provides evidence consistent with agglomeration improving job matches. However, the labour market pooling gains that we measure are small in magnitude and seem unlikely to account for a substantial share of the agglomeration benefits accruing to Italian workers and firms.