The shale revolution and shifting crude dynamics

Oil price fluctuates in response to both demand and supply shocks. This paper proposes a new methodology that allows for timely identification of the shifting contribution from the two types of shock through a joint analysis of crude futures options and stock index options. Historical analysis shows that crude oil price movements are dominated by supply shocks from 2004 to 2008, but demand shocks have become much more dominant since then. The large demand shock following the 2008 financial crisis contributes to the start of this dynamics shift, whereas the subsequent shale revolution has fundamentally altered the crude supply behavior.     

基于升值期和贬值期时间变化的补货策略与定价决策

本文考虑时间对价格和需求量的影响,对产品在供应链环境下,分别以升值期和贬值期为时间周期作了供需关系及其补货与定价决策的定量研究。通过分别建立供需双方的利润函数模型并导出供方的最优定价和需方的最优订货量。在升值期中,供需双方在各补货周期内的利润随时间推移而增加,且产品价格和需求量也呈上升趋势;而在贬值期中,供需双方在各补货周期内的利润随时间推移而减少,且产品价格和需求量也呈下降趋势。最后,通过实例证实了上述结果。     

房价形成机制与定量分析初探

本文探讨了房价形成机制,认为供求关系决定房价,基本面、资金面、政策面等各种影响因子通过影响有效需求和有效供给最终实现对房价趋势的作用,形成房价波动和周期规律。在此理论基础上,利用实证数据对房价定量分析模型进行研究,论述了"房价是供求比的函数"的推导过程和逻辑关系,为今后房价分析模型的研究抛砖引玉。     

Monetary Fiasco: Is there a Culprit?

Criticism of the Bank of England over the excess supply of money neglects its fundamental role in supplying money to the financial institutions to ensure the efficiency of the capitalist economy. Rather than reduce the supply of money directly, the Government has correctly attempted to reduce demand for it by using high interest rates to raise its price.     

THE ROLE OF TIME‐VARYING PRICE ELASTICITIES IN ACCOUNTING FOR VOLATILITY CHANGES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET

There has been a systematic increase in the volatility of the real price of crude oil since 1986, followed by a decline in the volatility of oil production since the early 1990s. We explore reasons for this evolution. We show that a likely explanation of this empirical fact is that both the short‐run price elasticities of oil demand and of oil supply have declined considerably since the second half of the 1980s. This implies that small disturbances on either side of the oil market can generate large price responses without large quantity movements, which helps explain the latest run‐up and subsequent collapse in the price of oil. Our analysis suggests that the variability of oil demand and supply shocks actually has decreased in the more recent past, preventing even larger oil price fluctuations than observed in the data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

论审计价格及其市场化导向

人们对审计收费认识上的偏差,注册会计师独立性缺失、审计价格难以反映审计市场的供求状况,审计主体无法自主定价,审计价格普遍偏低,价格机制对审计市场供求的调节作用无法发挥,这些问题严重影响审计市场的建立与健全和注册会计师行业的发展。本文认为,必须要改进现行审计收费制度,明确树立审计服务的盈利性观念,按照市场规律而非行政手段规范审计价格,确定审计价格时要遵循市场化原则。     

基于信息共享的供应链定价策略及利润增值研究

基于单一制造商和单一零售商构成的供应链系统,在非线性市场需求的前提下,应用博弈理论对供应链系统的定价策略进行了分析,分别得出信息共享时的博弈均衡解和信息不共享时的博弈均衡解;进一步分析了信息共享程度的大小与批发价、零售价以及双方利润之间的关系,得出信息共享程度越高,制造商和零售商的利润越大,信息共享实现了帕累托改进。最后,通过实例对结论进行了验证。     

Modelling market fundamentals: A model of the aluminium market

The standard approach to modelling primary commodity markets under rational expectations is to relate the commodity price to the production and consumption ‘surprises’ (i.e. the innovations on the equations). Using the world aluminium market, we show how this approach can be modified so that both the price and stock can be written in terms of one or more market ‘fundamentals’ which reflect the supply—demand balance on the market. This approach allows joint estimation of production, consumption, stock demand and price equations subject to cross-equation restrictions. It may be seen as a formalization of the approach adopted by metals industry analysts.     

Equilibria with coordination failures

This paper extends the literature on equilibria with coordination failures to arbitrary convex sets of admissible prices. This makes it possible to address coordination failures for cases with price indexation or more general price linkages between commodities. We introduce a new equilibrium concept, called quantity constrained equilibrium (QCE), giving a unified treatment to all cases considered in the literature so far. At a QCE the expected trade opportunities on supply and demand are completely determined by a rationing vector satisfying that the prevailing price system maximizes the value of the rationing vector within the set of admissible prices. When the set of admissible prices is compact, we show the existence of a connected set of QCEs. This set connects two trivial no-trade equilibria, one with completely pessimistic expectations concerning supply opportunities and one with completely pessimistic expectations concerning demand opportunities. Moreover, the set contains for every commodity a generalized Drèze equilibrium, being a QCE at which for that commodity no binding trade opportunities on both supply and demand are expected, and also a generalized supply-constrained equilibrium at which no binding constraints on demand opportunities are expected and for at least one commodity also not on supply. We apply this main result to several special cases, and also discuss the case of an unbounded set of admissible prices.     

通过供求机制影响房价的因素研究

经济学中,需求和供给的许多影响因素都是密切相关,互相作用的。房地产市场的供给和需求共同决定了房价,这表明了影响需求和供给的因素也都是间接的通过供需影响房价。本文研究了几种主要的通过供求机制影响房价的因素,分析了其影响机制和影响程度。     

蔬菜价格上涨及波动的成因分析

近年来我国蔬菜价格在整体持续走高的同时,还伴随着局部的剧烈波动,损害了农户和消费者的利益。本文结合近年来相关数据分析了蔬菜价格的持续走高是多方面因素共同作用的结果,但主要是生产和流通成本的上升、总的供求关系的变化、工农产品比价的改变、流通渠道环节过长等。而部分品种蔬菜价格的超常规波动,一般是源于某些突发事件,如干旱、雪灾、倒春寒等导致供求严重失衡,再进一步导致下一周期供求严重失衡,从而出现价格的剧烈波动,其根本原因是供求的结构性失衡。     

Spatial market equilibria with flow-dependent supply and demand: The single commodity case

Existence and uniqueness of spatial price equilibria are analyzed for a single commodity market network in which supply and demand levels are allowed to depend on commodity flows as well as market prices. This framework makes possible the explicit incorporation of flow-dependent shipment costs into market supply and demand functions. Moreover, since many quantity signals are also expressible as flow-dependent variables, it is possible to incorporate a number of recent models of supply and demand behavior which allow for quantity signals as well as price signals. In this context, the main result of the paper is to establish the existence of spatial price equilibria for such market networks under quite general conditions. In addition, certain uniqueness results are established for the case of arc-generated networks.     

我国新建住宅长期供给价格弹性估算——基于35个大中城市的实证研究

大多数住宅模型和政策分析,都直接或间接依赖于住宅供给价格弹性的估计值：为了应对市场需求冲击,是多供给住房还是提高住宅价格？基于Mayo（1981）构建的模型,估算了我国35个主要大中型城市的新建住宅供给价格弹性。根据流量模型,2000-2007年我国的新建住宅价格弹性系数在4-11之间,2008到2013年的价格弹性在5-13之间。而存量调整模型得到了截然不同的估算结果：2008-2013年我国的新建住宅供给价格弹性在1-6之间,更精确的估算出了我国新建住宅供给市场的价格弹性。     

Anti-Abortion Activities and the Market for Abortion Services: Protest as a Disincentive

Cross-section data for the US are used to estimate the effects of anti-abortion activity on the demand and supply of abortion services in 1992. Empirical results show that anti-abortion activity had a signi~cant negative impact on both the demand and supply of abortion services. Using estimates from a two-stage least-squares estimation of demand and supply, anti-abortion activities (measured as picketing with physical contact or blocking of patients) have decreased the market equilibrium abortion rate by an estimated 19 percent and raised the price of an abortion by approximately 4.3 percent. Taken together, the empirical results show that anti-abortion activities have been successful in making abortion services scarcer.     

城镇专业市场形成的供需机制分析

在分析本地专业市场的地理意义及其对供需的空间聚集能力的基础上,由生产带动和消费带动两种模式入手对本地专业市场的供需互动形成机制进行探讨.通过分析行业平均价格指导下的供需曲线变化,寻求对本地专业市场形成机制的解答,并以国内相关城镇的专业市场实例进行印证,得出在不同模式下本地专业市场的形成条件.结论显示,城镇专业市场是在本地与外地的供给与需求互动过程中有条件地形成的.     

浅析中国房地产市场的风险及其控制

近几年来,我国的房地产市场出现供需两旺、房价一路攀升的过热现象。房价上涨过快、市场过热也潜伏着相当大的风险。房地产商在分享市场过热效应带来高收益的同时,也必然要承担社会政策与市场供求等方面变化带来的各种风险。因此,房地产开发企业要树立持续发展的经营理念和理性开发意识,建立合理有效的理财模式,加强资产管理和成本控制,以便于规避和控制风险。     

Oil price shocks and credit spread: Structural effect and dynamic spillover

This study analyzes the heterogeneous response of U.S. credit spread to global oil price shocks by building an extended structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR), which can distinguish among the U.S. and non-US oil supply shocks, aggregated demand shocks and oil market-specific demand shocks behind the real oil prices. Meanwhile, a spillover index model developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) (hereafter D.Y. (2012)) is used to estimate the link between oil price shocks and the U.S. credit spread over time. The results show that (i) the credit spread does not respond to global oil supply shocks and non-US oil supply shocks, but has a negative reaction to the U.S. oil supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks, and oil-market-specific demand shocks. (ii) There exists a close connectedness between oil price shocks and the U.S. credit spread, and the link fluctuates cyclically and relates to the economic cycle and the U.S. shale oil revolution. (iii) The spillover from different oil price shocks to the U.S. credit spread shows significant heterogeneity over time. Our findings suggest that policymakers and investors can better track the U.S. credit spread changes using oil price information.     

基于渠道竞争的双渠道供应链低碳协调策略

针对由一个制造商和一个零售商构成的双渠道供应链,将渠道竞争和产品的低碳性能引入消费者的非线性需求中,通过构建制造商为主导者的Stackelberg博弈模型,对比分析了分散决策和集中决策下的最优定价、碳排放水平和成员利润,并采用价格折扣-成本分摊契约实现了供应链的协调。研究结果表明:在分散决策和集中决策两种情况下,渠道竞争程度的增加均会造成碳排放水平、供应链利润和消费者效用的降低;集中决策下的直销价格大于分散决策下的直销价格,集中决策下的零售价格小于分散决策下的零售价格。最后通过算例验证了以上结论和协调机制的有效性。     

Supply chain decisions and coordination in the presence of an imperfect spot market

This study considers a supply chain consisting of a commodity supplier and a final product manufacturer with uncertain demand. In addition to purchasing from the supplier through a forward contract, the manufacturer can adjust their inventory by trading the commodity in an online spot market after observing the actual demand. However, the spot market is imperfect in that transactions cannot be certainly realized and come with additional transaction costs. Furthermore, the spot price is volatile such that overly relying on the spot market is unwise. To investigate how the spot market affects the decisions and coordination in a supply chain, we develop a game-theoretical model incorporating spot trading. We derive the optimal ordering decision in a centralized supply chain, as well as the supplier's and manufacturer's equilibrium pricing and ordering decisions in a decentralized supply chain. The impact of the imperfect spot market on the optimal decisions and profits is analyzed. This study also demonstrates how the supply chain can be coordinated in the presence of an imperfect spot market. Finally, a numerical analysis is performed to examine the analytical results. Our results indicate that the spot market can generally improve the performance of the centralized supply chain and benefit the manufacturer in the decentralized one. However, it can be detrimental to the supplier. The supply chain can be coordinated by a revenue-sharing contract, and both parties' profits can be improved. Our findings suggest that the manufacturer could take advantage of the spot market, and the supplier should attempt to integrate or coordinate the supply chain to share the benefits of spot trading.     

我国商品房价格的影响因素及控制措施

商品房价格是多种因素发展变化共同作用的结果。目前商品房存在价格过高、投资性购房的比重较高、开发投资额超常增长等问题。文章从供需角度分析商品房价格上涨的原因。从而提出调节供应,保障供需总量和结构平衡、加强和完善宏观监测体系、通过房产税促进低价位住房的建设和消费、加强舆论宣传引导等对策。