工程投标报价的优化

在报价低者为优的评标规则下，报价、中标可得利润与中标概率总是成反比，最优报价为中标可得利润与中标概率的乘积最大时所对应的报价。结合案例详细分析了只有一个具体竞争对手，有若干具体竞争对手，已知对手数目但不知具体对象，既不知对手数目也不知具体对象四种情况下的报价决策方法。     

The impact of reduced pre-trade transparency regimes on market quality

This paper studies the effects of pre-trade quote transparency on spread, price discovery and liquidity in an artificial limit order market with heterogeneous trading rules. Our agent-based numerical experiments suggest that full quote transparency incurs substantial transaction costs to traders and dampens trading activity in an order-driven market. Our finding reveals that exogenous restriction of displayed depth, up to several best quotes, does not benefit market performance. On the contrary, endogenous restriction of displayed quote depth, by means of iceberg orders, improves market quality in multiple dimensions: it reduces average transaction costs, maintains higher liquidity and moderate volatility, balances the limit order book, and enhances price discovery.     

Causality effects in return volatility measures with random times

We provide a structural approach to identify instantaneous causality effects between durations and stock price volatility. So far, in the literature, instantaneous causality effects have either been excluded or cannot be identified separately from Granger type causality effects. By giving explicit moment conditions for observed returns over (random) duration intervals, we are able to identify an instantaneous causality effect. The documented causality effect has significant impact on inference for tick-by-tick data. We find that instantaneous volatility forecasts for, e.g., IBM stock returns must be decreased by as much as 40% when not having seen the next quote change before its (conditionally) median time. Also, instantaneous volatilities are found to be much higher than indicated by standard volatility assessment procedures using tick-by-tick data. For IBM, a naive assessment of spot volatility based on observed returns between quote changes would only account for 60% of the actual volatility. For less liquidly traded stocks at NYSE this effect is even stronger.     

The fiscal behavior of municipal governments: 1905–1930

This report discusses a new set of annual U. S. municipal expenditure estimates. These estimates deal with the 1905–1930 period. While these expenditures are seen to be influenced by urbanization and price inflation, it is clear that real per capita spending rose substantially during the period. The distribution of municipal spending between current and capital accounts is seen to be associated with relative price change. A model of the structure of budget decisions—emphasizing an incremental budgeting format—is developed. Estimates of the structural parameters suggest that this model adequately represents the data; and that municipal decision makers responded in a regular and rational fashion to shifts in relative prices and nominal sources of funds.     

An event time study of the price reaction to large retail trades

This paper analyzes large retail trades using an event study approach. A major finding in studies of this nature is an immediate reversal on the trade subsequent to the large transaction, for both large purchases and large sales. This reversal is inconsistent with the overwhelming majority of previous findings which show a stock price continuation following purchases to the close of trading. We confirm the reversals first using transaction prices, and then show that continuations follow both large purchases and sales when quote data is used. These large trades do not lead to a fundamental change in stock price volatility. We conclude that the transaction price reversal is driven by natural bid-ask bounce around large purchases and large sales.     

趋势持续时间与价格变化相依结构下的高频交易CVaR模型

针对现有文献估计高频交易风险与实际风险存在偏误,提出基于趋势持续时间与价格变化相依结构下的CVaR模型。该方法首先定义了趋势持续时间和价格变化幅度,并得到趋势持续时间和趋势持续期内价格变化幅度两者边缘分布。然后结合Copula理论构造出趋势持续时间和价格变化幅度的联合分布和条件分布,并在此基础上计算CVaR。最后采用沪深300股指期货高频交易数据对本文提出的模型进行了实证检验。结果表明：下跌趋势持续时间要比上涨趋势持续时间长,对应的下跌幅度要比上涨幅度更大,股指期货上涨与下跌风险具有不对称性。     

Decentralized Supply Chain Decisions on Lead Time Quote and Pricing with a Risk‐averse Supplier

We consider a decentralized supply chain containing a risk‐averse supplier and a risk‐neutral retailer with lead time‐sensitive and price‐sensitive demands. A Stackelberg game is employed to model the lead time quote and pricing decision process between the two members under the conditional value‐at‐risk criterion. A unique equilibrium is obtained. Using the corresponding centralized mode as a benchmark, we find that a less risk‐averse supplier is better to cooperate and share risk with the retailer to improve the entire supply chain's efficiency. With a uniformly distributed realized lead time, the impact of the supplier's risk aversion on the decisions can be characterized by a few threshold values of the late delivery penalty cost. In particular, when the unit delay penalty cost exceeds a certain level, a more risk‐averse supplier will counter‐intuitively quote a shorter lead time by risking a higher delay penalty cost. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Een prijsindex van nieuwe personenauto's, 1950–1965*

Summary In constructing a price index of new motorcars the main problem is how to deal with the introduction of new models and with quality variation generally. The first difficulty is turned by compiling year-to-year indices based on models that each account for 2 per cent or more of total sales in either year. The shifting basis of these indices comprises from 7 to 15 models which together account for 45 to 70 per cent of total registrations. All models are subject to minor improvements; this quality variation is taken into account by representing increases in horse power and overall length by equivalent price reductions. The elasticity coefficients involved in this translation are derived from a cross section analysis of prices and technical characteristics of some fifty widely ranging models in 1964. A price index for the period from 1950 to 1965 is then obtained by linking successive year-to-year indices. Over the whole period list prices have risen by a third, to a large extent as the result of changes in purchase tax; this price rise is just about offset by imporvements in quality of some 2 per cent per annum.     

Price adjustment and market structure: A single-industry study

The administered price hypothesis of Gardnier Means has continued to attract a great deal of empirical attention. Unfortunately, the results of all this research have not been consistent. The present paper tries to circumvent the usual empirical difficulties by using a lagged adjustment model for a single industry with geographically separate markets. It examines the rate of price adjustment and the frequency of price changes for newspaper advertising rates for a sample of local papers in Ireland. Adjustment equations are run for each newspaper using labour and materials cost indices as explanatory variables. The partial adjustment coefficient estimates are then related to market structure and firm specific characteristics.     

影响模具成本的主要因素分析

本文根据模具行业的发展现状,特别对影响模具成本的因素进行了分析,指出影响模具成本因素的问题所在,要稳定模具成本就必须对材料费和制造费进行有效的控制,要千方百计消除人为因素的干扰,才能更好地降低模具成本,报出合理的模具价格,赢得市场。     

施工企业投标报价阶段成本控制探讨

施工企业投标报价阶段的成本控制具有全局性的控制意义,施工企业进行投标报价阶段的成本控制时应遵循全过程控制原则、效率原则、开源与节流原则和预防原则等4个原则,一方面争取报出一个富有竞争力的报价,另一方面争取能够为中标后的项目成本控制创造有利的条件。     

Estimating the determinants of stock price changes

I develop an approach for estimating the determinants of stock price changes that uses all eligible trade data and other observable parameters of market activity. This approach backs out the unobserved continuous price change distribution from the observable discrete price changes, and does not constrain the determinants to be proportions of the traded bid-ask spread. I show that theoretically impermissible results and skewed estimates of cost components are obtained when the model used for estimating the determinants of stock price changes does not attempt to uncover the mapping between the observed price changes and the underlying unobserved continuous price change process, and does not effectively use all eligible trade data.     

煤炭价格对燃煤发电项目内部收益率影响关系的研究

煤炭价格对燃煤发电项目经济效益具有决定性影响,煤价与电价的相对水平决定了煤炭行业、电力行业、政府间的利益分配。电力行业的市场化进度相对落后于其上游的煤炭产业,煤炭价格波动对电力企业的运营构成较大的成本风险。内部收益率是燃煤电厂经济效益的关键指标,文章以内部收益率作为研究对象,分析煤炭价格变动对内部收益率的影响,运用回归方法拟合煤炭价格对内部收益率的影响曲线,进一步通过数值差分法得到煤炭价格对内部收益率的微分曲线即边际影响曲线,并利用双曲函数拟合边际影响曲线。研究结果表明,在较低价格区间内,煤炭价格变化对内部收益率的边际影响度较小;在较高价格范围内,边际影响度以双曲函数的形式快速下降。     

Changes in the distribution of house prices over time: Structural characteristics,neighborhood, or coefficients?

Quantile hedonic house price function estimates imply that appreciation rates were higher between 1995 and 2005 for high-priced homes in Chicago. Decompositions of temporal changes in the house price distribution suggest that the types of homes sold and their location do not account for the change in the price distribution. Rather, higher appreciation rates for high-priced homes are explained by differences in the quantile regression coefficients over time.     

The lag relationship between wholesale and consumer prices: An application of the Hatanaka-Wallace procedure

This paper examines the lag distribution relating wholesale to consumer price changes. Sims' causality test indicates a one-sided lag structure. Following Hatanaka and Wallace, parameters of the lag distribution which can be estimated with relatively high precision are emphasized. Thus, our concern is with the sum of coefficients and the first four moments of the distribution. Short-run effects are estimated from lag moments using Pearson's method for equating moments. As a smoothness prior, a Beta distribution in the lag weights is suggested. Tests for bias due to missing components in the wholesale price index indicate little is lost because of misspecification.     

Changes in the distribution of house prices over time: Structural characteristics,neighborhood, or coefficients?

Quantile hedonic house price function estimates imply that appreciation rates were higher between 1995 and 2005 for high-priced homes in Chicago. Decompositions of temporal changes in the house price distribution suggest that the types of homes sold and their location do not account for the change in the price distribution. Rather, higher appreciation rates for high-priced homes are explained by differences in the quantile regression coefficients over time.     

Technological Choices and Prices,and Their Implications for the US Economy, 1963–2000

This paper examines the influence of techological change and changing factor prices in the US economy on prices and incomes between 1967 and 2000. Dynamic input–output physical, price and income models provide the conceptual framework for the analysis. The investigation is focused on sectoral price changes, the distribution of income and outlays between capital and labor, and the changing real purchasing power of capital and labor. One major conclusion is that the shares of national income earned by labor and capital have remained relatively constant over the entire period due to offsetting changes which are explicitly identified. At the same time, labor's purchasing power has not increased as much as that of capital.     

Heterogeneity dependence between oil prices and exchange rate: Evidence from a parametric test of Granger causality in quantiles

This paper re-examines the nexus between crude oil price and exchange rate by investigating their heterogeneity dependence structure within the framework of Granger causality in quantiles for a sample of developed and emerging economies (namely UK, Canada, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Norway, India, Japan, South Africa, South Korea and European Union (EU)). The results indicate no distinct causality between the crude oil price changes and the real exchange rate returns for all countries besides Russia at the median of the conditional distribution. Besides, the crude oil price changes influence the exchange rate returns in all countries, except Norway and EU, particularly around the tails of the conditional distributions of exchange rate returns. This suggests that the oil price changes influence the real exchange rate returns when the real exchange rate returns are either in extreme appreciation or depreciation. Moreover, the crude oil price movement can be explained by the exchange rate returns for most oil importers only when the crude oil market is bearish or bullish. By contrast, the real exchange rate can permanently affect the crude oil price for most oil-importing countries irrespective of the crude oil market's state. Finally, our findings provide an essential reference for managing the extreme risk dependence between the exchange rate market and the crude oil market.     

EPC总承包投标报价浅析

EPC总承包是设计、采购和施工总承包,属于一种交钥匙项目。EPC项目投标一般为固定总价合同,工程总承包商在工程设计、进度控制、质量控制和成本方面承担着较大的责任和风险,因此EPC项目总承包投标报价在此就具有非常重要的意义。投标报价若保守会直接导致承包商失去机会,而漏项或对风险估计不足,则会造成承包商的经济损失。     

供应突变下的供应链协调仿真研究

研究供应链的供应突然大幅度变动时,供应链应该如何应对该突发事件,使供应链重新达到协调。鉴于此,首先对供应链突发事件、供应链协调等相关概念进行了陈述。指出突发事件打破了供应链的原有协调,并建立了系统动力学模型。通过模型的数据仿真分析得出面对供应链的供应大幅度变动的突发事件时供应链应该采取何种措施。其中,主要研究的是在供应链收益一定的情况下供应商与生产商之间如何通过销售价格来调整他们之间的收益分配比例,使得供应链重新达到协调。