The short‐term impact of Brexit

• A scenario run on the Oxford Global Model suggests that Brexit would leave the level of UK GDP 1.3ppt lower by Q2 2018 compared with our baseline forecast that the UK votes to stay in the EU. A vote to leave would mainly shock business confidence but consumers would be adversely affected too. Exporters in price‐sensitive sectors would benefit from a weaker exchange rate.
• Market pricing suggests that sterling could initially fall by around 15% before recovering some of its losses, while the heightened uncertainty would also be expected to drive a sharp drop in equity prices in H2 2016.
• Brexit would present something of a dilemma for policymakers. While a weaker pound would cause inflation to initially spike upwards, we would expect the MPC to look through this and cut Bank Rate in order to support activity. And with the UK likely to retain its reputation as a safe haven, this would also see gilt yields stay lower for longer.
• Weaker growth would also put the Chancellor in breach of the fiscal mandate, though we would expect him to plead extenuating circumstances, rather than tighten policy and potentially exacerbate the slowdown.

     

Indirect Convertibility,Equity‐Based Banking and Financial Stability

Banking reform proposals put forward in the wake of the recent financial crisis maintain that equity‐based banking would be stable and would prevent bank runs. This article argues that complementing this form of banking with an indirect convertibility monetary standard and thereby dispensing with base money would enhance financial stability further. Banks would not hold a distinctive asset (base money) that would be called upon by customers at short notice, thereby removing the possibility of bank runs. No discrepancy in value between the two sides of a bank's balance sheet would arise as its assets (securitised loans) would be marked to market. Unlike other recent contributions, the intermediation model outlined here is not ‘limited purpose’ in nature as banks would not be restricted in the form of lending activity they can pursue. Common sources of banking and financial instability – liquidity risk, solvency risk, moral hazard – would be absent.     

Herbert Davenport on the Single Tax: A Second Look

A bstract . Despite a recent claim to the contrary, Herbert J. Davenport was firmly against the Henry George proposal to try to raise all public funds from a tax on land. This is evidenced by two papers he wrote on the subject. Davenport argued that the single tax on land would prompt the inefficient use of substitutes for land, that it would tend to destroy the base upon which the tax was levied, and that it would offend our sense of justice, or the equal treatment principle. The most important and effective of his arguments appears to be the first. It was, more specifically, that in the event of a land tax, individuals would economize on land. They would farm more intensively, they would construct higher buildings, and they would exploit potential underground living space. This paper describes Davenport's arguments and shows why they have been misinterpreted in the past as supporting Henry George's tax theory.     

Deterring predation in telecommunications: Are line-of-business restraints needed?

We analyze whether lifting the remaining line-of-business restraints in the Modified Final Judgment (thus permitting the Regional Bell Operating Companies to provide interLATA calling services and to manufacture equipment) would plausibly lead the RBOCs to practice predatory pricing. We assume throughout that the regulated portions of the RBOCs' business would be subjected to price-cap or similar incentive-based regulation and that equal access to bottleneck services would be enforced. Despite employing a very broad definition of predation, we find that it is highly unlikely that the RBOCs would profitably engage in predatory pricing.     

Canada-United State Free Trade

A bstract The Canada US Free Trade AGreement (FTA) which came into force January 1. 1989 caused heated debate within Canada about the impact it would have on social programs , other directly or indirectly It was argued that Canada would have to give up some social programs because they would be deemed to be substdues to the production of goods or services Alternatively, it was feared that firms would argue that the programs would need to be cut in order to ensure that they could compete with US firms in firms in terms of taxes It is shown that public unease about the fate of social programs was based both on a misunderstanding of FTA provisions, and on 'misperception'of the mag nitude of social program expenditures Social Programs Such as unemployment insurance , even when they subsidize particular groups of people (eg fisher men) are not normally deemed to be unfair competition which would be countervailable In addition, firsm do not expertence any greter benefit costs in Canada than in the US, albeit there is a different public/private split and thus there is no justification for firms to argue for cutting programs in order tobe competitive, other things being equal     

Exploring tax evasion in the context of political uncertainty

We present a model of agents facing the uncertainty of two future forms of government who are able to insure against this uncertainty by hiding funds from taxation. In order to choose whether or not to hide funds from taxation, agents need to know policy choices that each government would make should it come to power. But each government, before it could make its decision, would need to know the choices of the agents who would, for example, produce tax revenues. This informational tension is resolved endogenously. We derive the resulting level of tax evasion in society and the optimal choices made by the potential governments. We examine how changes in governmental structure would affect the level of tax evasion, and how that, in turn, would affect a particular form of capital flight.     

Competitive pressures on China: Income inequality and migration

How would perfect competition affect the distribution of income in China? To answer this question, we integrate the two main streams of income distribution theory, namely the functional and the personal income approaches. First, using a general equilibrium model of China comprising 30 sectors and 27 provinces, marginal productivities are used as competitive commodity prices and factor rewards. Second, the rewards are imputed to households using their compositions in terms of persons and factor endowment entitlements. The ensuing distribution is contrasted with the status quo. Less skilled labor would stand to lose and, therefore, inequality would mount. Skilled workers, managers and technicians would move from Western and Central China to Eastern China. These flows would be more than offset by a flow of unskilled labor from Eastern China to Central China. Our finding that Eastern China has too many unskilled workers, relative to the competitive benchmark, suggests that the Harris–Todaro mechanism operates in China. Competition would change the predominant nature of inequality from the rural–urban divide to differences between the social classes. Moreover, the existing negative relationship between development and inequality would evaporate.     

Competitive Pressure on the Indian Households: A General Equilibrium Approach

How would competitive pressure impact upon the income distribution and the poverty of household groups? We analyse the gains in efficiency and productivity due to competitive pressure, and its distributional effects using a general equilibrium input–output framework. Efficient utilization of the available resources, technical progress and free trade constitute our sources of growth. Welfare would increase under competition, but the income distribution would become more skewed. Rural household groups would stand to lose relative to the urban ones. Urban poverty would be reduced significantly more than rural. In fact, the agricultural worker would even suffer from an increase in poverty. The study shows that competitive pressure has a positive effect on efficiency, productivity and poverty, but an adverse effect on the income distribution in the Indian economy.     

网络技术与企业创新方案价值的提升

价值工程学属边缘学科,涉及多学科的交叉与相互渗透.本文章拟在企业创新方案的征集过程中试行仿生管理技术,以解决这一边缘学科研究所面临的多学科攻关与高投入的矛盾.关键是通过信息高速公路与国内外专家建立合作,通过“执行”或“不执行”国内外专家的企业创新方案,通过正反馈或负反馈调节企业创新方案的研究方向及细节,建立具有银行和保险功能的国际性价值工程组织和与之相配套的基金和资料库,帮助参与该级织的企业技术创新,并保证献计献策的专家从中获益,以促进该企业的发展.     

审计处理随意性的实证分析——基于审计部门1984年—2006年的经验证据

按照法规公正处理审计中发现的问题是审计的基本要义,但是有实验研究发现,审计人员在处理过程中,存在着审计随意性现象.分析审计部门1984年至2006年审计处理数据后发现,在审计处理中存在着根据上期违纪金额确定本期违纪金额大小的现象;审计机关级别不同,审计处理方式不同;对不同审计对象,处罚力度也存在差异.为此,审计机关应当尽可能使审计执法的标准客观化,以减少人为因素对审计处理的影响.     

Injecting incentives into the solution of social problems: Social Policy Bonds

There seems little chance of achieving many social objectives, given that the ways in which they are being pursued fail to harness self-interest. A way forward is to create a new financial instrument - Social Policy Bonds - which would be auctioned by government. The bonds would be tradable and would be redeemed only when a specified social objective had been achieved.     

Reforming value added tax

The research reviewed in this paper establishes that the VAT system generates heavy administrative burdens for small firms in Europe despite various measures taken to alleviate them. A possible solution would be to abolish VAT charges between registered traders which would, in effect, convert the tax into a sales tax. The conclusion is that such a change would necessitate modification of the 6th Directive on VAT. The other alternative might be to compensate small firms for their work as unpaid tax collectors.     

Market Standards for Money

The power of governments to debauch currencies for political ends has long been condemned by market economists. Monetarists have argued that the government should restrain its production of money; Professor Hayek contended in 1976 that monetary continence would succumb to political pressures and argued for national currencies to be replaced by competing private monies. Here he refines this thinking and suggests that a private 'store of value'—the standard—would be more likely to overcome the political obstruction to the wholesale denationalisation of currencies, but would be immune from use as a political tool by the state.     

THE BUS INDUSTRY: FRANCHISE AND THE LOSS OF FREEDOM

Political pressure exists for the bus industry to be brought under local authority control by means of 'Quality Contracts.'These would take away from management the freedom for marketing, and especially for marketing by price, that was returned to them by the 'deregulation' of 1985. The proposed franchises would return the industry to the 'bad old days' and prevent its continued improvement through market forces from taking place. The Department of Transport considered the idea of franchises in 1985, but concluded that it would merely lead to monopoly power.     

The Sufficiency of Single Tax Revenue:

A bstract . Statements claiming that the single tax would raise insufficient revenue to support modern governments have been damaging to Henry George's proposal to tax the rent of land. It is argued that these claims are a misleading way of assessing George's proposal. Firstly, it is shown that estimates of rent usually understate the revenue that would have been raised under the single tax. Secondly, the idea of a counterfactual proposition is used to show that government expenditure would have been lower subsequently had George's proposal been adopted. The conclusion is that there are generally errors of omission in estimating the sufficiency of single tax revenue.     

资本集聚效应

股票市场的风险规避依靠分散投资及提高相关专业知识。这种需求将最终导致股票市场的资本流归专业公司代理,由他们代理经营;这样既能使资本形成规模经济,又避免其产生范围不经济。同样,房地产企业为了建造优质高效的产品,必须寻求专业的技术支撑及流畅的物流管理,而这同样将导致房地产市场的分工更加明确,技术更加专业,资本流向更加集中——资本集聚效应由此形成。     

Are you running out of time?

In a perfect world we would all have a written daily plan of action that would be inviolate. Every task, every action, every conversation would be precisely timed to move us toward our ultimate personal goals. No one would trespass on our sacred schedule. But this is most definitely not a perfect world.     

心理资本对民营企业新生代员工绩效的影响——以浙江3家民营上市公司为例

通过定性与定量研究,本文认为心理资本与新生代员工绩效有显著正相关关系。回归分析发现,员工心理资本中自信维度对于新生代员工任务绩效、人际促进、工作投入三维结构均有显著的正向促进作用;乐观、坚韧对于任务绩效达成有显著正向影响;希望维度对于人际促进有显著正向影响;而坚韧维度有助于新生代员工工作投入的增强。新生代员工不只看重物质待遇,也重视精神需求的满足。     

Low Pay,Higher Pay and Job Satisfaction in Wales

Abstract

Using the first six waves of the Welsh boosts to the British Household Panel Survey this paper attempts to explain the determinants of overall job satisfaction and four facets of job satisfaction in Wales, distinguishing between female and male workers and low-paid and higher paid workers. The motivation of the paper is the claim made widely in the EU that low-paid jobs are jobs of inherently low quality, in which case we should expect that job satisfaction would be lower in low-paid jobs. Since there are proportionately more low-paid workers in Wales than in either England or Scotland we would also expect to find that job satisfaction would be lower in Wales than in the other two countries.     

Diversity in the regulation of Islamic Financial Institutions

More than 200 Islamic Financial Institutions (IFIs) are reported to have total combined assets in excess of US$ 200 billion with an annual growth rate estimated between 10 and 15%. The regulatory regime governing IFIs varies across countries. International organizations have been established to set standards that would strengthen and eventually harmonize prudential regulations as they apply to IFIs. The paper contributes to the discussion on the nature of the prudential standards to be developed. It clarifies risks IFIs are exposed to and the type of regulation that would help to manage them. It considers that the industry is still evolving with an anticipated convergence of the practice of Islamic financial intermediation with its conceptual foundations. Accordingly, the paper contrasts the risks and regulation that would be needed in the case of Islamic financial intermediation operating according to core principles and current practice. Implications for approaches to capital adequacy, licensing requirements and reliance on market discipline are outlined. The paper suggests an organization of the industry that would allow it to develop in compliance with its principles and prudent risk management and to facilitate its regulation.